Is Dame a top 10 player overall?

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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#41 » by Vladimir777 » Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:29 am

GSP wrote:
Vladimir777 wrote:He's right on the cusp. I'd probably put him over Luka and AD at this point, but that can change at anytime, and Luka will surely surpass him soon. I'd have my top ten as thus:

1.) LeBron
2.) Kevin Durant
3.) Giannis
4.) Nikola Jokic
5.) James Harden
6.) Steph Curry
7.) Kawhi Leonard
8.) Joel Embiid
9.) Luke Doncic (I know I said I'd put Luka under Dame above, but I changed my mind, LOL)
10.) Dame Lillard
11.) Anthony Davis (I value health and availability, so I think Dame is above him...realistically, I should probably move KD a few spaces back, due to this)
12.) Rudy Gobert
13.) Bradley Beal
14.) Jimmy Butler/PG13
15.) Chris Paul
16.) Kyrie Irving
17.) It starts getting hard to rank around here, but I'll throw some love to Zach Lavine, but this could be a ton of people


I mostly like the list but in 2021 I think it's time we no longer pretend Playoff P is on the same tier as Jimmy


Fair enough. I respect your request, and honor it. PG13 drops down to 15. :P
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#42 » by dygaction » Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:07 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
bondom34 wrote:People are overreactionary.

Jimmy Butler's team has won a ton lately, he's less flashy and I'd say in the same general tier of guys. But most people seem to not really consider him. Lillard's a very weird case to me, he's fantastic but one of few stars in the league who's flaws generally seem to be glossed over. People remember stuff like last night, but don't remember the off nights, or remember the first round in 2019 but forget the Denver series, or the 2016 playoffs.
.


He's largely been a one man team. No disrespect to CJ or Nurkic, but those guys are nothing special. CJ has one season total of even league average efficiency and he's been the 2nd option for years now. So yeah in the playoffs against good teams, good defenses, and good coaching staffs, sometimes they will make life difficult for him. This is true of basically every offensive star. I mean look at Harden for instance.

But he's just so good and I really don't understand the arguments for guys like AD or Luka sorta being defaulted in above him. Based on what exactly?


I will take a hot take after a nice Luka win :D Luka's back to the basket game and vision are what Dame doesn't have. Those gives him scoring resilience against top defenders like PG13 and Kawhi, even in playoffs.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#43 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:37 pm

Read on Twitter
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#44 » by dygaction » Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:52 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


It's a nice chart but the whole "clutch" thing can be overblown. An earlier 2 affect the game just the same as clutch 2 but give you more cushion and assurance going to the end of the game. The best teams or best players should not put themselves into situations to depend on clutch shots very often, as they often dominate the game more. That's why players from borderline good teams, like Lavine and Dame, get the highest number of shots. Players from good teams appearing on the left/top of the graph should be more ideal, but when the total numbers are small, the deviations can be large. That's why nobody cares Giannis is 20% higher than Kawhi in the graph.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#45 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:25 pm

dygaction wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


It's a nice chart but the whole "clutch" thing can be overblown. An earlier 2 affect the game just the same as clutch 2 but give you more cushion and assurance going to the end of the game. The best teams or best players should not put themselves into situations to depend on clutch shots very often, as they often dominate the game more. That's why players from borderline good teams, like Lavine and Dame, get the highest number of shots. Players from good teams appearing on the left/top of the graph should be more ideal, but when the total numbers are small, the deviations can be large. That's why nobody cares Giannis is 20% higher than Kawhi in the graph.


Well aware of all that and generally don't disagree. I'd point to CJ and nurkic being out for most of the year as to why he's been in more of those situations. The fact that he's delivered at an elite level shouldn't be ignored. Also, kawhi's level of load management is a knock on him. He's just fortunate enough to be on a team so talented it doesn't hurt them much.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#46 » by dygaction » Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:38 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
dygaction wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


It's a nice chart but the whole "clutch" thing can be overblown. An earlier 2 affect the game just the same as clutch 2 but give you more cushion and assurance going to the end of the game. The best teams or best players should not put themselves into situations to depend on clutch shots very often, as they often dominate the game more. That's why players from borderline good teams, like Lavine and Dame, get the highest number of shots. Players from good teams appearing on the left/top of the graph should be more ideal, but when the total numbers are small, the deviations can be large. That's why nobody cares Giannis is 20% higher than Kawhi in the graph.


Well aware of all that and generally don't disagree. I'd point to CJ and nurkic being out for most of the year as to why he's been in more of those situations. The fact that he's delivered at an elite level shouldn't be ignored. Also, kawhi's level of load management is a knock on him. He's just fortunate enough to be on a team so talented it doesn't hurt them much.


Indeed impressive. Dame's MVP ranking has climbed to #3 in nba.com and #2 in yahoo.com. It's slightly higher for my taste but glad he gets recognized.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#47 » by theonlyclutch » Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:34 pm

dygaction wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


It's a nice chart but the whole "clutch" thing can be overblown. An earlier 2 affect the game just the same as clutch 2 but give you more cushion and assurance going to the end of the game. The best teams or best players should not put themselves into situations to depend on clutch shots very often, as they often dominate the game more. That's why players from borderline good teams, like Lavine and Dame, get the highest number of shots.


Not true, there's good data showing that teams play better when behind and play worse when ahead. So teams are on average going to end up with closer scores than their respective net ratings would suggest. Therefore, comparatively two points late in the fourth is more valuable than two points earlier in the game in terms of contributing to the team's chances of winning.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#48 » by dygaction » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:53 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
dygaction wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


It's a nice chart but the whole "clutch" thing can be overblown. An earlier 2 affect the game just the same as clutch 2 but give you more cushion and assurance going to the end of the game. The best teams or best players should not put themselves into situations to depend on clutch shots very often, as they often dominate the game more. That's why players from borderline good teams, like Lavine and Dame, get the highest number of shots.


Not true, there's good data showing that teams play better when behind and play worse when ahead. So teams are on average going to end up with closer scores than their respective net ratings would suggest. Therefore, comparatively two points late in the fourth is more valuable than two points earlier in the game in terms of contributing to the team's chances of winning.


It is true but only to a certain extend. For a close game, you change any previously missed or made fga it’s no longer a close game. I am full after eating 22 dumplings but that does not mean the 22nd was more effective than others.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#49 » by mojomarc » Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:53 pm

dygaction wrote:
It is true but only to a certain extend. For a close game, you change any previously missed or made fga it’s no longer a close game. I am full after eating 22 dumplings but that does not mean the 22nd was more effective than others.


I for one really appreciate the little-used "dumpling conundrum"
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#50 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Apr 6, 2021 10:52 pm

dygaction wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
dygaction wrote:Really? Paul George
Reg: 33.3 min 43.6 FG%, 38.4 3p%, 84.7 FT%, 6.4r, 3.4a, 2.6to, 20.1p
Post: 38.4 min 41.9 FG%, 35.6 3p%, 81.9 FT%, 7.1r, 3.8a, 3.1to, 20.1p
If you use per 100, or per min, EVERYTHING drops in playoffs except turnover. Maybe his last year dragged down the whole (89 games total) playoff stats .


Also here is Dame from 16-20 in the PS. I'll take my chances and pass

Read on Twitter
/photo/1


My major concern for Dame is his drop in playoffs as mentioned in the op, but I think PG13's graph would be very similar.


Here is PG's graph from 14-19

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/617877313534558208/829125570016837672/EyLkI5xWgAAGhYe.png?width=924&height=427
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#51 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 7, 2021 1:25 am

dygaction wrote:The reason I asked is because if everyone is healthy, I have him right at 11 behind Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Harden, Giannis, Luka, KD, Kawhi, AD, and Curry. In front of PG13, Irving, Butler, CP3, and Simmons.

I’m glad you broke it down like this. I think my major thought is that the league is stacked with players doing things that seem “Top 5”-ish to me.

Next thought is that we’ve never had all of these guys having idea seasons at once so considering them all at once doesn’t even feel real to me.

That said. I don’t object to you placing Dame like you do. Seems about right.


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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#52 » by feyki » Wed Apr 7, 2021 9:29 am

Durant,Lebron,Harden,Curry,Jokic,Embiid,Doncic,Giannis,Kawhi,Paul George,A.Davis all are clearly better than him.

I also think Kyrie is better than him, too. Top 15 player, for sure. But hard to put him in the top 10.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#53 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Apr 7, 2021 3:40 pm

I feel like if you care about playoff resilience it's very hard to justify Damian Lillard as a top ten player. He has been beaten up pretty much every year in the playoffs.

Usually when big time stars play with bad teams it is expected they will lose - but usually the star will still look like he is in the same class as the other team's opposing star, or at least like an MVP caliber player.

When the Blazers lose, whether it is against a comparable team or a much better team - it is not rare for Damian Lillard to look 2nd rate to the opposing team's franchise player. That is a pretty big red flag, and it makes me question why people love to giggle about Playoff P (I guess cause he calls himself that and he has played for many clubs) but everyone always has amnesia about Damian Lillard.

This question is more interesting because we can pretty much omit Davis and Durant because they have barely played this season - though it is rather obvious to me they are both much better players than Damian Lillard.

This would leave in some order

Jokic
Embiid
Giannis
James
Harden
Leonard
Curry

Those guys are pretty much the premier superstars of the league. Yeah sure, you can say Lillard is like Curry but we know Curry's game translates better in the post season, and generally speaking impact stats favor him. For what ever reason, even in this section, people tend to just PPG+TS watch with Lillard (I know he has legit crazy gravity but I see people focus more on his PPG/TS% combination).

That means Lillard at best is the 8th best player. Now, I'm kind of being nice because I think Luka Doncic is better than Damian Lillard. I get it - they're both 30 point, efficient PG's. That's great, but there are a few things that make me consider Luka - some are obvious and not really debatable, others might be more controversial

First the obvious

He is a better playmaker and floor general than Lillard. Their APG is "close", but I feel like if you watch both players you see Luka has a better feel for the game - and we already know this has translated to him running the best offense in 2020 and he didn't exactly get worse this year.


He is also a better defender. Might say but isn't Luka like some fat euro guy, he's not a defensive player! Yeah, he's not really a defensive guy, but Lillard is all types of bad on defense - he's one of the worst defenders in the league, the only star player who is a worse defender than him is Trae Young which isn't saying much.




Now the more controversial - I think Luka is a better scorer than Lillard despite that being Lillard's "thing". If you just compare their RS numbers than Lillard is clearly a more efficient scorer by like +2TS% or so.

But this kind of dates back to "feel for the game", the way Luka scores seems more natural, he just has a better feel for the game. Eye test is one thing, but again, we know that Luka's style of play creates not just elite offenses, but all time ones. Dallas isn't that team this season, but my guess is that the reason why they're only 10th and not #1 doesn't start with Luka.

As I stated before I believe playoff resilience is important, and what a player actually plays like in the playoffs is the true representation of how good a player is. I am not talking about clutchness or the nerves, I am flat out talking about tournament play in not only basketball but any sport or game is entirely different from non-tournament play.

We have a enough of a sample size where you can say that Damian Lillard is not a true 30 point 60+ TS% type of guy in the post season.

We have a small sample size showing Luka does just fine.

Normally a small sample size wouldn't benefit someone, but in this case we kind of "know" Lillard isn't that great of a scorer in the post season - at least with Luka there is a chance he might continue to be one.


My post is almost entirely negative about Lillard so it's going to come off like I am saying he is a scrub. But I am really saying he's not a real 30 ppg guy, he's a regular season player. Maybe he'd play with other stars and be way better, but he doesn't want to do that so we don't know how that would work (and Luka doesnt have any other stars either).


So Luka bumps Lillard to #9.




That leaves the "unsexy" names left. You have your Rudy Goberts and Ben Simmons - they're defenders and not scorers so the arguments for why they are better or not are obvious. You have CP3, who beat up Damian Lillard last time they played but we don't know how far removed from CP3's prime he really is. You have Jimmy Butler who puts up unsexy numbers and because the Heat are not doing that great people have died down on his narrative. Theres George....who people kind of hate but he's not having a bad season at all and he's hardly why the Clippers are "underperforming" (they're the third seed in the west, their RS meltdown is greatly exaggerated). There's Kyrie Irving who I think is overrated, but he does a lot of the things Lillard does on the surface.


Of those guys, I feel like I would take Jimmy Butler over Lillard, and Butler was a better player than Lillard most seasons since their primes started. I also am pretty confident in Rudy Gobert.


So no, Lillard is probably not a top ten player. He certainly wouldn't be with Durant and Davis playing, but even without them the odds aren't great. He can have a 50 point game tomorrow, but it wouldn't change my opinion because I've seen him do that for several seasons now.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#54 » by dygaction » Wed Apr 7, 2021 11:49 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
dygaction wrote:The reason I asked is because if everyone is healthy, I have him right at 11 behind Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Harden, Giannis, Luka, KD, Kawhi, AD, and Curry. In front of PG13, Irving, Butler, CP3, and Simmons.

I’m glad you broke it down like this. I think my major thought is that the league is stacked with players doing things that seem “Top 5”-ish to me.

Next thought is that we’ve never had all of these guys having idea seasons at once so considering them all at once doesn’t even feel real to me.

That said. I don’t object to you placing Dame like you do. Seems about right.


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Seems many sports experts have Dame as top 5 in MVP ranking, so do I, but I am still reluctant to move him in top 10 in value mainly due to concerns about playoff resilience against tougher defense.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#55 » by Kobe187 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:46 am

No, but he’s close.

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. A. Davis
4. Giannis
5. Leonard
6. Jokic
7. Luka
8. Harden
9. Curry
10. Embiid
11. Butler
12. Irving
13. Dame
14. George
15. Beal/Paul
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#56 » by Pelly24 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 1:45 pm

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. Jokic
4. Harden
5. Giannis
6. Kawhi
7. Steph
8. Embiid
9. Dame
10. Anthony Davis
11. Jimmy Butler
12. Paul George
13. Kyrie
14. Gobert
15. Beal/Paul
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#57 » by feyki » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:01 pm

Lilliard over AD is about 2021 regular season, I guess. You could not compare Lilliard to AD, player-wise.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#58 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:33 pm

dygaction wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
dygaction wrote:The reason I asked is because if everyone is healthy, I have him right at 11 behind Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Harden, Giannis, Luka, KD, Kawhi, AD, and Curry. In front of PG13, Irving, Butler, CP3, and Simmons.

I’m glad you broke it down like this. I think my major thought is that the league is stacked with players doing things that seem “Top 5”-ish to me.

Next thought is that we’ve never had all of these guys having idea seasons at once so considering them all at once doesn’t even feel real to me.

That said. I don’t object to you placing Dame like you do. Seems about right.


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Seems many sports experts have Dame as top 5 in MVP ranking, so do I, but I am still reluctant to move him in top 10 in value mainly due to concerns about playoff resilience against tougher defense.


Care to elaborate? Hasn't Dame done a bunch of awesome stuff in the playoffs?
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#59 » by bondom34 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:44 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
dygaction wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I’m glad you broke it down like this. I think my major thought is that the league is stacked with players doing things that seem “Top 5”-ish to me.

Next thought is that we’ve never had all of these guys having idea seasons at once so considering them all at once doesn’t even feel real to me.

That said. I don’t object to you placing Dame like you do. Seems about right.


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Seems many sports experts have Dame as top 5 in MVP ranking, so do I, but I am still reluctant to move him in top 10 in value mainly due to concerns about playoff resilience against tougher defense.


Care to elaborate? Hasn't Dame done a bunch of awesome stuff in the playoffs?

Didn't really want to get back into the thread, but a few posts throughout have reviewed.

He's hit a few notable shots, but the overall resume isn't great, especially when compared with the higher end guys. A guy like PG, Butler, etc. even tends to be a bit more favorable and that'd bump him down some.

LukaTheGOAT noted here:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2062734&p=90201068#p90050542

As well as another I'd had earlier itt.
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Re: Is Dame a top 10 player overall? 

Post#60 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 am

bondom34 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
dygaction wrote:
Seems many sports experts have Dame as top 5 in MVP ranking, so do I, but I am still reluctant to move him in top 10 in value mainly due to concerns about playoff resilience against tougher defense.


Care to elaborate? Hasn't Dame done a bunch of awesome stuff in the playoffs?

Didn't really want to get back into the thread, but a few posts throughout have reviewed.

He's hit a few notable shots, but the overall resume isn't great, especially when compared with the higher end guys. A guy like PG, Butler, etc. even tends to be a bit more favorable and that'd bump him down some.


I'm curious how you see the series where Lillard went for 33 PPG on 62% TS and hit a series ending dagger against George's team. Do you believe George was the MVP of that series?
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