Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities?

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, Doctor MJ, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Quotatious

parsnips33
Veteran
Posts: 2,758
And1: 775
Joined: Sep 01, 2014
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#21 » by parsnips33 » Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:01 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:No but I think this year brings into question Bob Myers' GM skills.


*Kent Lacob
Warriors Analyst
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,753
And1: 1,666
Joined: May 16, 2005

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#22 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:04 pm

Steph's point differential per 100 possessions is pretty much in line with what it's been since Kerr took over:

2014-15: +16.3
2015-16: +21.3
2016-17: +17.6
2017-18: +13.0
2018-19: +17.5
2019-20 (5 games): -3.6
2020-2021: +14.3

So all things considered, yes, he's performed slightly worse than in years past, but given his surrounding cast, that's hardly a surprise.

But Steph's impact is pretty stable. When he's on the court, the Warriors are a much better team. It's just... they're still not that good with him on the court, which means they're terrible without him.

I've listed below the Warriors' point differential in the Kerr era as well as Curry's to make my point. It's not a perfect methodology here since I don't have the means to account for games Steph missed, but it is still pretty striking:

2014-15: +12.1 (Steph +16.3)
2015-16: +11.6 (Steph +21.3)
2016-17: +12.8 (Steph +17.6)
2017-18: +7.2 (Steph +13.0)
2018-19: +7.9 (Steph +17.5)
2019-2020: -9.6 (5 games of Steph -3.6)
2020-21: -1.7 (Steph +14.3)

So if we subtract Steph's impact you're left with... the following point differential, more or less, without Steph in those years:

2014-15: -4.2
2015-16: -9.7
2016-17: -4.8
2017-18: -5.8
2018-19: -9.6
2019-20: -6.0
2020-21: -16.0
User avatar
LA Bird
Veteran
Posts: 2,774
And1: 2,316
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#23 » by LA Bird » Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:24 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:Steph's point differential per 100 possessions is pretty much in line with what it's been since Kerr took over:

2014-15: +16.3
2015-16: +21.3
2016-17: +17.6
2017-18: +13.0
2018-19: +17.5
2019-20 (5 games): -3.6
2020-2021: +14.3

So all things considered, yes, he's performed slightly worse than in years past, but given his surrounding cast, that's hardly a surprise.

But Steph's impact is pretty stable. When he's on the court, the Warriors are a much better team. It's just... they're still not that good with him on the court, which means they're terrible without him.

I've listed below the Warriors' point differential in the Kerr era as well as Curry's to make my point. It's not a perfect methodology here since I don't have the means to account for games Steph missed, but it is still pretty striking:

2014-15: +12.1 (Steph +16.3)
2015-16: +11.6 (Steph +21.3)
2016-17: +12.8 (Steph +17.6)
2017-18: +7.2 (Steph +13.0)
2018-19: +7.9 (Steph +17.5)
2019-2020: -9.6 (5 games of Steph -3.6)
2020-21: -1.7 (Steph +14.3)

So if we subtract Steph's impact you're left with... the following point differential, more or less, without Steph in those years:

2014-15: -4.2
2015-16: -9.7
2016-17: -4.8
2017-18: -5.8
2018-19: -9.6
2019-20: -6.0
2020-21: -16.0

Source for your 2021 on/off numbers? According to both NBA and basketball reference, Curry's on/off stats have dropped considerably this year compared to past seasons.

NBA
2015: +16.3 on, -3.5 off, +19.8 net
2016: +17.7 on, -5.4 off, +23.1 net
2017: +17.4 on, -2.0 off, +19.4 net
2018: +13.0 on, +0.3 off, +12.7 net
2019: +13.7 on, -4.3 off, +18.0 net
2021: +2.0 on, -5.9 off, +7.9 net
Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/

BBR
2015: +16.7 on, -1.4 off, +18.1 net
2016: +18.0 on, -4.6 off, +22.6 net
2017: +17.1 on, -0.1 off, +17.2 net
2018: +13.2 on, +1.0 off, +12.2 net
2019: +13.2 on, -3.0 off, +16.2 net
2021: +1.6 on, -4.9 off, +6.5 net
Source: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01/on-off/2021
Warriors Analyst
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,753
And1: 1,666
Joined: May 16, 2005

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#24 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:27 pm

LA Bird wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:Steph's point differential per 100 possessions is pretty much in line with what it's been since Kerr took over:

2014-15: +16.3
2015-16: +21.3
2016-17: +17.6
2017-18: +13.0
2018-19: +17.5
2019-20 (5 games): -3.6
2020-2021: +14.3

So all things considered, yes, he's performed slightly worse than in years past, but given his surrounding cast, that's hardly a surprise.

But Steph's impact is pretty stable. When he's on the court, the Warriors are a much better team. It's just... they're still not that good with him on the court, which means they're terrible without him.

I've listed below the Warriors' point differential in the Kerr era as well as Curry's to make my point. It's not a perfect methodology here since I don't have the means to account for games Steph missed, but it is still pretty striking:

2014-15: +12.1 (Steph +16.3)
2015-16: +11.6 (Steph +21.3)
2016-17: +12.8 (Steph +17.6)
2017-18: +7.2 (Steph +13.0)
2018-19: +7.9 (Steph +17.5)
2019-2020: -9.6 (5 games of Steph -3.6)
2020-21: -1.7 (Steph +14.3)

So if we subtract Steph's impact you're left with... the following point differential, more or less, without Steph in those years:

2014-15: -4.2
2015-16: -9.7
2016-17: -4.8
2017-18: -5.8
2018-19: -9.6
2019-20: -6.0
2020-21: -16.0

Source for your 2021 on/off numbers? According to both NBA and basketball reference, Curry's on/off stats have dropped considerably this year compared to past seasons.

NBA
2015: +16.3 on, -3.5 off, +19.8 net
2016: +17.7 on, -5.4 off, +23.1 net
2017: +17.4 on, -2.0 off, +19.4 net
2018: +13.0 on, +0.3 off, +12.7 net
2019: +13.7 on, -4.3 off, +18.0 net
2021: +2.0 on, -5.9 off, +7.9 net
Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/

BBR
2015: +16.7 on, -1.4 off, +18.1 net
2016: +18.0 on, -4.6 off, +22.6 net
2017: +17.1 on, -0.1 off, +17.2 net
2018: +13.2 on, +1.0 off, +12.2 net
2019: +13.2 on, -3.0 off, +16.2 net
2021: +1.6 on, -4.9 off, +6.5 net
Source: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01/on-off/2021


I was having trouble navigating NBA's page. I used Cleaning the Glass.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

I was using efficiency differential: points per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 posessions.
User avatar
LA Bird
Veteran
Posts: 2,774
And1: 2,316
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#25 » by LA Bird » Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:15 am

Warriors Analyst wrote:I was having trouble navigating NBA's page. I used Cleaning the Glass.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

I was using efficiency differential: points per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 posessions.

Interesting, usually the CTG stats don't differ too much from the other sources. Not sure what is going on here but ok.
LukaTheGOAT
Junior
Posts: 472
And1: 298
Joined: Dec 25, 2019
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#26 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:03 am

While I do wonder if Curry could help GSW more if he was on-ball a bit more, and tried to play like a Dame, Lillard, Trae, role, I still think he has massive impact and has an argument for the best offensive player in the game, especially with how he flies all around the court to separate from his defender.

He has a 8.5 Offensive RAPTOR, which is tied for #1 in the NBA. He's scoring about 30 games on a rTS% of 7.5% and those numbers looked better before his little skid prior to the All-Star Break. He's top 10 in PlayVal, so his playmaking has been solid and he is creating ample shots.

I think Curry might be under a Harden/maybe Lebron in floor-raising on offense, but still seems to be the standard of ceiiling-raising. And I think that is just about where people have always just about had him I suppose?
User avatar
oaktownwarriors87
RealGM
Posts: 11,993
And1: 3,691
Joined: Mar 01, 2005
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#27 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:34 pm

LA Bird wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:I was having trouble navigating NBA's page. I used Cleaning the Glass.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

I was using efficiency differential: points per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 posessions.

Interesting, usually the CTG stats don't differ too much from the other sources. Not sure what is going on here but ok.


He's also second in RPM, first on ORPM and 2nd in WINS

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM
PockyCandy wrote:Is Ball's shot any more ugly than Curry's? Curry just seems to launch it towards the basket like an 8 year old.
LukaTheGOAT
Junior
Posts: 472
And1: 298
Joined: Dec 25, 2019
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#28 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sun Apr 4, 2021 4:49 am

With Stephen Curry on the floor, the Warriors have a +2.4 team offense, ranking 13th in the NBA.

With Stephen Curry off the floor, the Warriors have a -9.8 team offense, the 7th worst in league history.
User avatar
rate_
Starter
Posts: 2,066
And1: 5,805
Joined: Apr 10, 2017

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#29 » by rate_ » Sun Apr 4, 2021 6:06 am

Warriors are be 12th in ORTG w/ Curry (114.3) on the court, and easily 30th w/o him (102.1)
User avatar
KobesScarf
Veteran
Posts: 2,541
And1: 520
Joined: Jul 17, 2016
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#30 » by KobesScarf » Sun Apr 4, 2021 1:07 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Might wanna look at only minutes he's in the game, just anecdotally our bench units have been let's say offensively challenged
Is he not accountable for playing more minutes?
Pelly24
Analyst
Posts: 3,517
And1: 2,447
Joined: Aug 02, 2016
     

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#31 » by Pelly24 » Sun Apr 4, 2021 1:26 pm

To me Steph is just doing fine, but not much better. People always want to put down Westbrook for his MVP year, but I think he quite possibly gets this warriors team to a better record in that year. IDK. I think Steph also just has certain problems while being on the ball. He just has physical limitations. The numbers show that he's a big deal and doing a solid job but idk. Harden would have this team in the playoffs, so I think this makes Harden and Curry more of a toss up than people have been willing to admit.
Statlanta
Head Coach
Posts: 6,374
And1: 4,498
Joined: Mar 06, 2016

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#32 » by Statlanta » Sun Apr 4, 2021 2:07 pm

Steph is OK. His injury history(the strategy the team is taking this season because of it) and the luxury tax is the real anchor on the Warriors neck.
Cavsfansince84
General Manager
Posts: 8,174
And1: 6,140
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#33 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Apr 4, 2021 4:28 pm

KobesScarf wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Might wanna look at only minutes he's in the game, just anecdotally our bench units have been let's say offensively challenged
Is he not accountable for playing more minutes?


Not completely. That's more on Kerr and the Warriors are obviously working under a strategy to not try and chase wins at the future expense of Steph's health. They are content to only win about 25-30 games and reload for next season.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 16,439
And1: 12,076
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#34 » by 70sFan » Sun Apr 4, 2021 4:58 pm

If you want to use Warriors offense without Curry as a proof of something, it's better to compare it to other teams results without their offensive anchors as well. Otherwise, it's pointless and I don't say it to downgrade Steph.
SpreeS
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,668
And1: 1,096
Joined: Jul 26, 2012
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#35 » by SpreeS » Mon Apr 5, 2021 5:14 am

70sFan wrote:If you want to use Warriors offense without Curry as a proof of something, it's better to compare it to other teams results without their offensive anchors as well. Otherwise, it's pointless and I don't say it to downgrade Steph.


Curry off 99.8 -9.7

Young off 104.2 -2.4
Tatum off 107.3 -2.2
Harden off 111.8 +3.1
Hayward off 106.9 -2.9
Lavine off 102.8 -0.4
Sexton off 99.8 -8.7
Grant off 104.3 -6.8
Sabonis off 114.9 +8.2
Butler off 105.1 -6.3
Giannis off 110.2 +0.5
Randle off 103.7 -3.0
Vucevic off 102.0 -1.6
Embiid off 105.9 -0.9
Lowry off 110.9 +3.5
Beal off 98.5 -7.5

Doncic off 105.0 -0.4
Jokic off 102.5 -2.4
Wall off 105.1 -5.5
Kawhi off 109.1 +0.9
Lebron off 102.3 -3.3
Morant off 105.1 +0.6
Town off 101.8 -11.2
Zion off 108.2 -2.1
Shai off 100.1 -7.3
Booker off 108.4 +5.1
Lillard off 108.0 -3.3
Fox off 109.3 -3.3
DeRozan off 104.2 +0.5
Mitchell off 112.1 +12.2
U hova
Pro Prospect
Posts: 826
And1: 476
Joined: Jul 02, 2013
 

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#36 » by U hova » Mon Apr 5, 2021 5:44 am

70sFan wrote:If you want to use Warriors offense without Curry as a proof of something, it's better to compare it to other teams results without their offensive anchors as well. Otherwise, it's pointless and I don't say it to downgrade Steph.

I am a little tired of hearing "X team is the Yth best offense in the league when Z is on court" but only comparing it to every team's average offense and not their peak line-ups as well.
Warriors Analyst
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,753
And1: 1,666
Joined: May 16, 2005

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#37 » by Warriors Analyst » Mon Apr 5, 2021 5:50 am

Pelly24 wrote:To me Steph is just doing fine, but not much better. People always want to put down Westbrook for his MVP year, but I think he quite possibly gets this warriors team to a better record in that year. IDK. I think Steph also just has certain problems while being on the ball. He just has physical limitations. The numbers show that he's a big deal and doing a solid job but idk. Harden would have this team in the playoffs, so I think this makes Harden and Curry more of a toss up than people have been willing to admit.


In what world have you watched this year's Warriors team and come to the conclusion that 2016-17 Russ makes the Warriors better than Steph this year? My god. The Warriors' single biggest issue is their inability to space the floor. Russ compounds that. Russ/Dray PNR's would have defenders planted below the three free throw line and Russ' 2P% efficiency would plummet trying to drive against packed paints. 28% of our made threes this year come from Steph. 15% come from Wiggins. The Warriors shoot 37% on threes this year, which is good for 13th in the league. Without Steph, that number drops to 35.6% and they'd be the 21st worst shooting team in the league. How does Russ make this team better? In what world? I also don't understand how you've come to the conclusion that Steph has trouble being on ball. There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows Steph is quite good on ball. It's Kerr's decision to put him off ball.
Pelly24
Analyst
Posts: 3,517
And1: 2,447
Joined: Aug 02, 2016
     

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#38 » by Pelly24 » Mon Apr 5, 2021 3:28 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:
Pelly24 wrote:To me Steph is just doing fine, but not much better. People always want to put down Westbrook for his MVP year, but I think he quite possibly gets this warriors team to a better record in that year. IDK. I think Steph also just has certain problems while being on the ball. He just has physical limitations. The numbers show that he's a big deal and doing a solid job but idk. Harden would have this team in the playoffs, so I think this makes Harden and Curry more of a toss up than people have been willing to admit.


In what world have you watched this year's Warriors team and come to the conclusion that 2016-17 Russ makes the Warriors better than Steph this year? My god. The Warriors' single biggest issue is their inability to space the floor. Russ compounds that. Russ/Dray PNR's would have defenders planted below the three free throw line and Russ' 2P% efficiency would plummet trying to drive against packed paints. 28% of our made threes this year come from Steph. 15% come from Wiggins. The Warriors shoot 37% on threes this year, which is good for 13th in the league. Without Steph, that number drops to 35.6% and they'd be the 21st worst shooting team in the league. How does Russ make this team better? In what world? I also don't understand how you've come to the conclusion that Steph has trouble being on ball. There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows Steph is quite good on ball. It's Kerr's decision to put him off ball.


Russ basically had no shooting and won anyway lol. He could just bludgeon his way to the rim and hit midrange jumpers and post up and pass the ball into tight spaces that only his big men could get it. Russ literally never had spacing while he was in OKC that year3, Oladipo and his other wing were just as unreliable as Wiggins and Oubre, probably moreso that year. Russ was the best clutch player in the league that year and they won a bunch of games at the last second that they shouldn't have because of Russ' late game surges (see Nuggets, Magic that year). If Russ had decent spacing OKC would've finished with a higher seed that year and would've won like 50+ games.

As for Curry on ball, but he's not Kobe, DWade, MJ, Harden, etc. He can't just force his way to buckets the same way, so if his jumper is off it can be pretty quiet. All the guys that rely on their jumper, unless they're super athletic or big, have this issue. IDK how much I buy into that Kerr stuff. He's said that Steph is like 6'2" 180 pounds so he doesn't want to put Steph's body through that punishment.
Peregrine01
Starter
Posts: 2,381
And1: 2,026
Joined: Sep 12, 2012

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#39 » by Peregrine01 » Mon Apr 5, 2021 5:47 pm

The only thing that 17 Westbrook has over 21 Curry is minutes played. I think that if Curry just played 2 more minutes a game in the 4th quarter, they would've converted at least 5 losses into 5 wins but alas Kerr doesn't let him. GSW's second unit bleeds leads like something I have never seen before.
Im Your Father
Junior
Posts: 383
And1: 164
Joined: Jul 17, 2014

Re: Does this year bring into question Curry's floor raising abilities? 

Post#40 » by Im Your Father » Mon Apr 5, 2021 6:44 pm

I don't think it really calls into question his floor raising abilities, but I DO think it should call into question how certain people on Real GM hold mediocre offensive or defensive team results against stars in less than ideal scenarios.

For example, I feel like in particular with respect to Wade or Garnett with those abysmal Heat/Wolves casts, I've seen team ORTG/DRTG held against them quite often.

Return to Player Comparisons