MJ vs Lebron based on pre-season odds & finishes

[dcstanley]

The OP should include MJ's Wizards year for completeness. This is an omission.

On the other hand, the data presented does have merit. Lebron's teammates being favorites so many years and not delivering reflects poorly on him somehow surely? Team like Golden State producing higher win totals with comparable or actually probably inferior talent (Kyrie > Klay, Love = or > Green) shouldn't be simply ignored.

On what basis was Love better than or equal to Draymond in 2016? Draymond was one of the ten best players in the league that season. The Warriors were able to advance to the WCF with Curry missing a series and a half because of Draymond’s elite impact.

[bondom34]

I was a Draymond critic back in those days, and think I had him as the 7th best player in the league in 2016. And betting odds aren't a measure of anything other than books trying to make money.

[Owly]

The OP should include MJ's Wizards year for completeness. This is an omission.

On the other hand, the data presented does have merit. Lebron's teammates being favorites so many years and not delivering reflects poorly on him somehow surely? Team like Golden State producing higher win totals with comparable or actually probably inferior talent (Kyrie > Klay, Love = or > Green) shouldn't be simply ignored.

See above ...re not "LeBron's teammates" but LeBron's teams or, better put, the teams that LeBron was on. The superstar is priced in. A hypothetical GOAT may find it literally impossible to exceed expectations.

See above re basketball is not 3 on 3.

I would posit the data has little value and the framing wherein OP has locked in assumptions prior to discussion (and resultant other framing problems) destroys any chance of a meaningful, serious thoughtful discussion. I therefore intend to cease engaging further on the topic.

[VanWest82]

I'm not sure team performance vs. expectation is the right way to go about proving who was the better player.

There is no sure fire way but as I've said in other places eventually someone with access is going to go back and calculate line up data and rapm for all of the 80s and 90s, and it's going to show that MJ was #1 every single year from 88-97, except for his retired years. Lebron is #1 if you sort by three year samples, but he was mostly only top 5 or top 10 and sometimes outside top 10 year-to-year. And not that this is a perfect way to settle the debate either but there's just a lot of evidence that MJ maintained a higher peak relative to his peers throughout entire seasons in his prime.

I'd rather have a slightly more impactful player for 11 years than someone who maybe achieved more but only over a much longer timeline. This is why we all agreed MJ > KAJ back in the mid 90s. Lebron is a little better than Kareem but the tenet holds true.

[mojomarc]

1. Using pre-season odds as an indicator of how well a team met expectations is very silly. You're literally ignoring the entire season worth of context that would let you know if those expectations were reasonable or not. Performing above or below an arbitrary line or pre-season odds just means the people that made the odds were wrong, not that you've actually done better or worse than you should have.

2. Using team outcomes to determine who the better player is without taking ANYTHING about the player into account is YouTube comment levels of nuance, context and analysis. Iz very bad.

3. Using pre-season odds to determine standards leads to silly logical outcomes. In 85, Jordan as a 21 year old out of college wins 38 games yet makes the playoffs because his conference is trash and he exceeds expectations. In 04, Lebron as a 19 year old out of high school wins 35 games but misses the playoffs because his conference was tougher, and yet he met expectations. So the MUCH worse player in 04 Lebron winning 35 games is satisfactory, and the way player winning only 3 more games is overachieving? That's dumb. A smart person would just say MJ was better than Lebron that year, advantage MJ.

In 05, Lebron played 80 games and won 42 games but missed the playoffs due to being in a tougher conference, and he underachieved. In 86, Jordan played 18 games, and his conference was so **** awful that his team made the playoffs by winning 30 games, yet he exceeded expectations? Damn, what would MJ have to due to underachieve, get relegated ? That's dumb. A smart person would say Lebron was better than MJ that year, advantage Lebron.

Similarly, anyone that says Lebron underachieved in 2015, or that Jordan simply met expectations in 98 just didn't watch the season. They both overachieved that year. Your chosen metric just doesn't coincide with reality, basically.

Agree fully. I would add on your first point that there is a fundamentally flawed assumption in this methodology. That flaw is the idea that Las Vegas bookmakers are trying to pick winners. They aren't. They're trying to pick a point where they think money for and against will balance out. So if you had a different mix in Vegas (say, a massive amount of new casino rooms to fill, more comps for sports books, more widespread sports books where the odds fluctuated more, etc.) then the expectations would be based on a different set of assumptions. More dumb money that bets on teams based on the existence of a single star player would arbitrarily inflate expectations for sports outcomes, when in reality it was the sports books inflating expectations for where the dumb money would be.

[Ellington]

I saw that RealGM actually voted Lebron as GOAT, which makes absolutely no sense to me. For this reason, I have compiled a table of season by season comparison of MJ and Lebron. This table compares MJ and Lebron based on how they performed according to expectation. The pre-season odds are a great matrix to determine the strength of each team, a team favorite to win by the odds is the best team in the league for the very season. Lets take a look:




Note:
* The Cavs started the season as 4th favorite and should be in championship window, but dropped back to 5th following the Lakers trade for Gasol. For this reason, the 2007-2008 season does not count as a championship window year for Lebron.
** The Lakers were favorite to win in pre-season and remained as favorite even after the Nets Harden trade. For this reason, the 2020-2021 season is considered a Championship Favorite Year for Lebron.

When did realgm ever put Lebron over MJ?

[Kiddlovesnets]

Here are the series betting prices for the NBA Finals as of Tuesday morning, courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as well as individual game lines.
NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors

Pre-series:

Cavaliers +180
Warriors -210

After Game 1

Cavaliers +320
Warriors -380

After Game 2

Cavaliers +650
Warriors -1000

After Game 3

Cavaliers +400
Warriors -500

After Game 4

Cavaliers +1100
Warriors -2500

After Game 5

Cavaliers +375
Warriors -450

After Game 6

Cavaliers +185
Warriors -215

The pre-season odds are much more useful than finals series odds when it comes to comparison of team raw talents. The finals odds already took the factors such as team chemistry, coaching, regular season record, and recent forms into consideration. The 73 wins Warriors overachieved in the regular season and generated a lot of hypes, but coming into playoffs teams they were just slightly better than OKC Thunder. The Warriors played a superior system with ball movement, while Cavs relied on players talents. In the very end, the Cavs were just too talented for the Warriors' team ball to overcome, especially with Curry injured and dominated by Irving.

A better question is, why were the Cavs unable to manage the same level of success in 2015-2016 regular season given a more talented rosters than the Warriors and Spurs. One reason I can think of, is that Lebron at that point of his career no longer cared about regular season, so he was coasting and didnt give his 100% until playoffs began. This is understandable and nothing wrong with it. Another more important factor that you guys have overlooked, is that not every player in Lebron's team was able to perform at his best/maximum potential, especially his all-star level teammates tend to have chemistry issue and dont quite fit together with him.

So why were players like Bosh and Love unable to flourish in a team with Lebron, thats something you probably want to think about and analyze.

When did realgm ever put Lebron over MJ?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2007234

[Djoker]

The OP should include MJ's Wizards year for completeness. This is an omission.

On the other hand, the data presented does have merit. Lebron's teammates being favorites so many years and not delivering reflects poorly on him somehow surely? Team like Golden State producing higher win totals with comparable or actually probably inferior talent (Kyrie > Klay, Love = or > Green) shouldn't be simply ignored.

On what basis was Love better than or equal to Draymond in 2016? Draymond was one of the ten best players in the league that season. The Warriors were able to advance to the WCF with Curry missing a series and a half because of Draymond’s elite impact.

Draymond ended up playing out of his mind in the 2016 playoffs. However in those years the two were compared often and were roughly on equal footing. And Green as a top 10 player is an exaggeration. Lebron, Curry, KD, Westbrook, Kyrie, George, Kawhi, Harden, CP3, AD were all better just off of the top of my head.

Anyways saying Kyrie > Klay and Love = Green is perfectly reasonable. That's probably why bookies thought that the Cavs were favorites that season. I find that information relevant. It doesn't tell the whole story (obviously...) but it does tell some of the story.

[sansterre]

Here are the series betting prices for the NBA Finals as of Tuesday morning, courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as well as individual game lines.
NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors

Pre-series:

Cavaliers +180
Warriors -210

After Game 1

Cavaliers +320
Warriors -380

After Game 2

Cavaliers +650
Warriors -1000

After Game 3

Cavaliers +400
Warriors -500

After Game 4

Cavaliers +1100
Warriors -2500

After Game 5

Cavaliers +375
Warriors -450

After Game 6

Cavaliers +185
Warriors -215

The pre-season odds are much more useful than finals series odds when it comes to comparison of team raw talents. The finals odds already took the factors such as team chemistry, coaching, regular season record, and recent forms into consideration. The 73 wins Warriors overachieved in the regular season and generated a lot of hypes, but coming into playoffs teams they were just slightly better than OKC Thunder. The Warriors played a superior system with ball movement, while Cavs relied on players talents. In the very end, the Cavs were just too talented for the Warriors' team ball to overcome, especially with Curry injured and dominated by Irving.

A better question is, why were the Cavs unable to manage the same level of success in 2015-2016 regular season given a more talented rosters than the Warriors and Spurs. One reason I can think of, is that Lebron at that point of his career no longer cared about regular season, so he was coasting and didnt give his 100% until playoffs began. This is understandable and nothing wrong with it. Another more important factor that you guys have overlooked, is that not every player in Lebron's team was able to perform at his best/maximum potential, especially his all-star level teammates tend to have chemistry issue and dont quite fit together with him.

So why were players like Bosh and Love unable to flourish in a team with Lebron, thats something you probably want to think about and analyze.

When did realgm ever put Lebron over MJ?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2007234

This project's premise (that one player outperforming expectations makes him better than another that didn't) is pretty suspect.

The classification of which seasons are what relative to expectations that are mostly the result of personal conclusions from the OP reveal some pretty substantial biases that undermine the thesis.

And the strange obsession with "more talented rosters" as opposed to "better rosters" is a little confusing. Kyrie's almost certainly more "talented" than Draymond, just as in the '14-18 stretch Draymond was almost certainly the more valuable player.

That said, the one thing I'll take from this is that Michael Jordan was extremely underrated in his time (at least until '92), which is itself a very interesting topic.

[Djoker]

The OP should include MJ's Wizards year for completeness. This is an omission.

On the other hand, the data presented does have merit. Lebron's teammates being favorites so many years and not delivering reflects poorly on him somehow surely? Team like Golden State producing higher win totals with comparable or actually probably inferior talent (Kyrie > Klay, Love = or > Green) shouldn't be simply ignored.

See above ...re not "LeBron's teammates" but LeBron's teams or, better put, the teams that LeBron was on. The superstar is priced in. A hypothetical GOAT may find it literally impossible to exceed expectations.

See above re basketball is not 3 on 3.

I would posit the data has little value and the framing wherein OP has locked in assumptions prior to discussion (and resultant other framing problems) destroys any chance of a meaningful, serious thoughtful discussion. I therefore intend to cease engaging further on the topic.

Basketball is obviously not 3 on 3. The point is that a very strong case can be made that the 2015-2016 Cavs were a more talented team than the 2015-2016 Warriors. Once that's accepted we can get into why the Warriors won more games etc.

But I am of the belief that when a player's teams typically underachieve their talent levels, they may be something to it. Like I said the OP's data tells only part of the story and not the whole story but that part of the story should still be acknowledged.

[Homer38]

The OP should include MJ's Wizards year for completeness. This is an omission.

On the other hand, the data presented does have merit. Lebron's teammates being favorites so many years and not delivering reflects poorly on him somehow surely? Team like Golden State producing higher win totals with comparable or actually probably inferior talent (Kyrie > Klay, Love = or > Green) shouldn't be simply ignored.

See above ...re not "LeBron's teammates" but LeBron's teams or, better put, the teams that LeBron was on. The superstar is priced in. A hypothetical GOAT may find it literally impossible to exceed expectations.

See above re basketball is not 3 on 3.

I would posit the data has little value and the framing wherein OP has locked in assumptions prior to discussion (and resultant other framing problems) destroys any chance of a meaningful, serious thoughtful discussion. I therefore intend to cease engaging further on the topic.

Basketball is obviously not 3 on 3. [b]The point is that a very strong case can be made that the 2015-2016 Cavs were a more talented team than the 2015-2016 Warriors[/b]. Once that's accepted we can get into why the Warriors won more games etc.

But I am of the belief that when a player's teams typically underachieve their talent levels, they may be something to it. Like I said the OP's data tells only part of the story and not the whole story but that part of the story should still be acknowledged.

Defense matters too....

[VanWest82]

That said, the one thing I'll take from this is that Michael Jordan was extremely underrated in his time (at least until '92), which is itself a very interesting topic.

MJ was for sure a little underrated in the 80s but it was his teammates who were being disrespected. Nobody believed in Pippen and Grant, specifically, because they were soft. That was definitely my opinion at the time. Until Bulls actually broke through the common belief was those guys would continue coming up small in the playoffs when it mattered. And then, finally they didn't.

[dygaction]

I saw that RealGM actually voted Lebron as GOAT, which makes absolutely no sense to me. For this reason, I have compiled a table of season by season comparison of MJ and Lebron. This table compares MJ and Lebron based on how they performed according to expectation. The pre-season odds are a great matrix to determine the strength of each team, a team favorite to win by the odds is the best team in the league for the very season. Lets take a look:




Note:
* The Cavs started the season as 4th favorite and should be in championship window, but dropped back to 5th following the Lakers trade for Gasol. For this reason, the 2007-2008 season does not count as a championship window year for Lebron.
** The Lakers were favorite to win in pre-season and remained as favorite even after the Nets Harden trade. For this reason, the 2020-2021 season is considered a Championship Favorite Year for Lebron.

Jordan should have 4 failed expectation seasons.

Jordan's 86 season, team beat expectation but he got injured so should be below expectation.
94 team beat expectation without him, but he failed expectations as he should not have retired
95 failed expectations as he should not have retired
99 failed expectations as he should not have retired

[zimpy27]

What does meeting pre-season TEAM expectations have to do with comparing PLAYERS?

All this could prove is that people.expect more of teams with LeBron on them than teams with Jordan on them.

[TheGOATRises007]

It's just fun data to look at.

Doesn't really hold much weight in an argument.

[Kiddlovesnets]

What does meeting pre-season TEAM expectations have to do with comparing PLAYERS?

All this could prove is that people.expect more of teams with LeBron on them than teams with Jordan on them.

Pre-season odds are the best estimates of team raw talents. The odds are given without consideration of team chemistry/compatibility, coaching, regular season record/HCA and recent forms, etc. A team ranked at the top of the pre-season odds, is the most talented team if we add up the players on the rosters individually.

Yeah people expect more with Lebron because he made a superteam with Miami Heat and then a big three at Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams from 2011 to 2016 had the best talents in the entire league, and hence why he was expected to win rings in all these 6 years. Unfortunately, he only managed 3 out of 6 times, and other than 2015 the other two times he had absolutely no excuse. MJ would have never lost in the finals when the Bulls had the most talented rosters and were supposed to win. Also when he did win in these 3 times, he had the best team in the league and was supposed to win. The 2016 ring was worth as much as any of MJ's rings, its not more valuable at all.

Also its intriguing why, Lebron's teams tend to be pre-season favorites but end up as underdogs in the NBA Finals. The 2015 team deserves a pass 'cause they were plagued with injuries, but its hard to explain this phenomena in 2012, 2014 and 2016. I think we need to think about Lebron's playing style and chemistry with his all-star teammates in order to answer this question.

[homecourtloss]

So, had LeBron just met expectations he'd have as many rings as Jordan.

I guess crowning yourself the king and getting ESPN to talk about you non-stop causes people to overvalue your abilities.

Moral of the story: Never bet against Jordan.

Now all we need is LesGrossman in here and we can really make it a party.

OP has a different handle he uses here or at InsideHoops for sure

I see that 2002 and 2003 are also conveniently forgotten again.

[The Master]

It shows some serious bias when according to this data, Jordan exceeded expectations in '95, while in reality after his comeback, according to the odds before playoffs Bulls were no 1 favorites to win a title.

In 2002 and 2003, according to odds, Wizards were 7th/8th seed in the East as well.

[Djoker]

See above ...re not "LeBron's teammates" but LeBron's teams or, better put, the teams that LeBron was on. The superstar is priced in. A hypothetical GOAT may find it literally impossible to exceed expectations.

See above re basketball is not 3 on 3.

I would posit the data has little value and the framing wherein OP has locked in assumptions prior to discussion (and resultant other framing problems) destroys any chance of a meaningful, serious thoughtful discussion. I therefore intend to cease engaging further on the topic.

Basketball is obviously not 3 on 3. [b]The point is that a very strong case can be made that the 2015-2016 Cavs were a more talented team than the 2015-2016 Warriors[/b]. Once that's accepted we can get into why the Warriors won more games etc.

But I am of the belief that when a player's teams typically underachieve their talent levels, they may be something to it. Like I said the OP's data tells only part of the story and not the whole story but that part of the story should still be acknowledged.

Defense matters too....

Sure.

Those Cavs had defensive talent. Lebron himself, Tristan, Shumpert, Delly, RJ...

[AmIWrongDude]

The problem with this is that times were very different between when MJ and LeBron played. LeBron's teams are almost favored just because of HIM. He's had insane expectations since day 1 and proved himself very early in his career so that's always been reflected in betting odds and things like that.

I've watched every game Bron's played since 2004 but I was semi-young and don't really remember 2005 very well so I can't comment.
2010 and 2011 - not meeting expectations that's definitely fair. 2011 in particular he choked and there's absolutely no excuse for that. I'm glad after that he's never really been the reason for losing.
2014 - fair that they were favored but again that was mainly because of LeBron. That Heat team was running on fumes by then.
2015 - mainly favored because of LeBron. There was a lot of question marks there but still they would've had a great chance to win if Kyrie and Love didn't get hurt OR even if Delly didn't almost die from the first few games lol.
2016 - met expectations is a crazy understatement. I know it's going by preseason odds but if anything this shows how flawed that way of thinking is. Bron might have put up the best finals performance of all time on offense AND defense and still they barely squeaked by. Knowing that now, "meeting expectations" is pretty hilarious.
2018 - To me that was definitely exceeding expectations. I mean that Cavs team was pretty trash at that point and I think that was one of LeBron's best years where he reaaaaallllly carried.
2019 - fair but I think that year was such a **** for the Lakers in general. Obviously Bron had one of his worst injuries ever but the thing that people never bring up is the fact that Ingram, Lonzo and idk who else were frickin injured all the time as well.

I would rather look at odds before each series if anyone has those. I'm not good at finding that type of **** but I'd be very curious because I think that would at least be a little more accurate than pre-season odds.