Homer38 wrote:Also very funny for 1986 when the Bulls finished at 30-52 and MJ missed 64 games and you say Jordan and the Bulls have been above expectation
I was sort of thinking the same thing. I mean, it all depends on how you wish to evaluate it: sure, if the Bulls are one of 16 teams in the playoffs and they were predicted to be 18th, that can be framed as a [slight] over-achievement. Given the intent
of the thread (which is made apparent in the first line), I'm not surprised the OP chose to interpret the result that way.
But as an counterpoint I'd note the '86 Bulls were 18th in SRS and tied for 19th in wins (not one of TWELVE WC teams had a worse record). So from those standpoints, the Bulls barely met expecation [perhaps marginal UNDER-achievement from that standpoint].
All things considered, this seems like one that is best labeled as "met expectation".
In '90 for that matter: predicted 6th, but they made the ECF. otoh, they were only 9th-best in SRS and tied for 5th in wins. That feels like a marginal
over-achievement at best
(and arguably most accurately labeled as "met").
But anyway, as another poster suggested, the methodology is a bit meh to begin with because a) it's so many degrees of separation from what actually takes place on the court, and b) also has the potential to punish whomever is labeled as a dominant sure thing sooner......and the odds-makers apparently took quite awhile to take Jordan seriously.
I mean, in '87 he had a clear MVP-tier season, the Bulls had finished 14th in the league in wins, 8th
in SRS, and in the off-season add TWO mid-1st round draft picks.......so the odds-makers predict 16th out of 23???
Not exactly a high bar, given the result from the previous season and the new help.
Then after finishing 7th in wins and 5th in SRS in '88, and making the semis, the prediction for '89 is......10th???
Lost Oakley, though gained Cartwright and improvement in their two promising rookies could/should have been presumed. So it does seem at least a slightly a low-ball prediction.
Meanwhile for Lebron, in his 4th season [though younger in years] after having just emerged as an MVP-tier player, the bar is set at 6th of 30. Must be that amazing supporting cast of Big Z, Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, young Varejao, aging Eric Snow and Donyell Marshall.
The following year [same basic cast] the bar is set at 5th.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd