MJ vs Lebron based on pre-season odds & finishes

[Kiddlovesnets]

Actually, yes.

They reflect past information adjusted for major trades / free agency moves. Precisely what I said.

I understand the need to justify your analysis. But unfortunately it was a waste of your time, a waste of mine and a waste of everyone else's too. Pre-season betting markets just aren't very informative.

Also, if you think the Cavs were a 'superteam' (they averaged fewer than 53-wins a season across four-years) then perhaps you aren't using a very useful definition of 'superteam'. Just a thought.

Nope you are wrong. The pre-season odds reflect the team's raw talents, so if Lebron's really on MJ's level he should be able to win every year when he was in championship window like MJ did with the Bulls(barring injuries, which we can give him a pass in 2015 maybe). Ever since he left Cleveland, the only year that his team was not in championship window is 2019. He only managed 4 out of the 9 rings since he colluded in Miami 2010. Perhaps you should ask yourself, why given one of the most talented rosters in the league, MJ won 100% of the time while Lebron managed less than 50%.

And the Cavs were absolutely a superteam from 2015-2017, he teamed up with two superstars that were the best players of their old teams in the previous season. Just because they failed to win as many games as other superteams doesnt mean they are not a superteam. Again you are using regular season record as indicator, then explain to me why the superteam Warriors only won 67 games in 2017 while the previous year they won 73? And why did the 73 wins Warriors struggle against 55 wins Thunder? A better question is, why did Lebron's Cavs underperform in regular season so they appeared as underdogs coming into the finals?

OP, did you really just call LeBron’s style “ball dominant” in a comparison to Jordan? C’mon man. Yes, LeBron is essentially a large point guard in the playoffs, but unless you think every point guard is automatically “ball dominant”, your take is absurd. This whole thread is craziness, and I’m one that still takes Jordan over LeBron if I’m building a team to win championships. This silliness is not the reason.

Oh, and another thing: everyone’s numbers go down when they move down the totem pole on a new team. LeBron didn’t make Love or Bosh worse, they just accepted lesser roles. Do you think Jordan made Ron Harper terrible, too? He went from scoring 20 a game to scoring 8 a game on the Bulls. Jordan must be a terrible person to play with, eh? Again, c’mon man... think about what you are saying.

Well MJ was ball-dominant in his earlier years too, he averaged 32/8/8 in a season and the team didnt make it far in the playoffs. MJ learned that he couldnt win NBA titles with this playing style, and when Pippen improved into an all-star player he stopped being ball-dominant and focused more on being the finisher while Pippen ran the point. Since then, the Bulls became invincible in playoffs.

MJ can be ball-dominant when needed, and can play off-ball when needed. Lebron has to always use a ball-dominant playing style since he is not a threat without the ball in his hands. This is a deficiency in his skillset, since unlike MJ, Lebron doesnt have a reliable jumper/mid-range shot. There is a reason why Lebron seems unfit with any teammates who need the ball in their hands to be effective, ie. Dwayne Wade and Isaiah Thomas.

Of course its quite often when players join up and make a better team, their stats go down. Even KD and Curry both accepted lesser roles in the Warriors superteam. The difference is that MJ's Bulls were dominant in both regular season and playoffs, completing another 3-peat Bulls dynasty. On the other hand, Bosh/Love accepted lesser roles and sacrificed their stats, but the team aint nowhere near as dominant as MJ's Bulls, even becoming underdogs in most finals series.

And even worse, Bosh/Love ended up being the scapegoats for the team's underachievement, some fans were arguing that Lebron would've had more rings had they played better. So why were they unable to play better, and why they had to play so much better for Lebron to win more rings?

[tmorgan]

So, yeah, your argument seems to have come back around to RINGZ. Just admit it, you have an agenda here, and you won’t accept anything that doesn’t fit it.

Oh, one more: do you realize how much crap Jordan’s teammates took from the media before he won his first title? Everyone knew Jordan was great early on, so the fact it took them some time and more talent to get thru Detroit and everyone else made all his teammates take a bunch of heat. In other words, this isn’t unique to LeBron either. You’re just manufacturing things to fit the goal you have.

And the whole ball-dominant thing is still wrong. LeBron has the ball in his hands because he’s been the best playmaker on every single roster he’s been on since he started playing basketball. It’d be stupid for him not to run the show. Jordan didn’t have anywhere close to LeBron’s vision, so he ended up doing the thing he was better at, scoring on anyone at will. It’s not a mystery.

[sansterre]

And the Cavs were absolutely a superteam from 2015-2017, he teamed up with two superstars that were the best players of their old teams in the previous season.

I realize that this one is kind of low-hanging fruit, but it's not remotely reasonable to argue that the 2015-17 Cavs were a superteam ergo LeBron should have won three titles (because Jordan would have).

First, 2015 was toast no matter what. I don't care if you replace LeBron with prime Jordan and then run a million "Jordan is overrated, what a choker, he's clearly worse than *insert name of star of upcoming matchup here*" stories and he goes full-on 'Shrug Game' . . . it wouldn't matter. Taking-it-Personal-Jordan plus the Cavs' roster besides Kyrie and Love still don't have a realistic shot against the 2015 Warriors. Holding that against LeBron is . . . questionable.

2016 was a win, so we'll not dwell.

And 2017 was home to one of the top three teams ever, the 2017 Warriors. There is *zero* shame in losing to that team.

So . . . I mean, yeah, Jordan won more, but Jordan's toughest playoff matchup in the '91-98 window was likely worse than *any* LeBron Finals matchup in the '12-18 stretch. So take it with a grain of salt.

And while we're at it, calling Kyrie Irving a 'Superstar' is a little ridiculous. He's the quintessential lots of sizzle little steak player. Granted, he was the best player on his team before 2015, but that was on a 33-win team, so it's not really brag-worthy. He's never finished higher than 10th in VORP (and only finished 10th twice). In ESPN's RPM wins he finished 9th in 2019, is 26th so far, was 36th in 2018. In 2014, the year before Love and LeBron joined he finished . . . 70th. Let's not go nuts about Kyrie being a superstar.

[SeattleJazzFan]

This is just a stupid methodology to use to determine anything because you’re just punishing someone for being so good that their presence on any team pretty much immediately yields the expectation of winning a championship.

I think that's the point. Expectations. LeBron didn't live up to them. He has more hype than substance.

And I'm only saying that relative to Jordan. Obviously LeBron is one of the greatest of all time and has been playing at or near an MVP level for almost two decades.

No one's going to look that great compared to Jordan. He dominated the league in box score stats, advanced stats and the win column. No one else is doing that at the level he did.

Everyone wants LeBron to be as good or better than Jordan. This shows that people were literally putting their money on it. Those are pretty unrealistic expectations.

more hype than substance? lol.

[Homer38]

A super team in 2015 to 2017 who was 4-23 without LeBron

I know we need to look at the context a bit(as they were like 4-11 with Kyrie and Love in the lineup and no LeBron,so not 4-23 bad but still bad) but who cares about the context when the OP don't care about the context.

[magicman1978]

OP, did you really just call LeBron’s style “ball dominant” in a comparison to Jordan? C’mon man. Yes, LeBron is essentially a large point guard in the playoffs, but unless you think every point guard is automatically “ball dominant”, your take is absurd. This whole thread is craziness, and I’m one that still takes Jordan over LeBron if I’m building a team to win championships. This silliness is not the reason.

Oh, and another thing: everyone’s numbers go down when they move down the totem pole on a new team. LeBron didn’t make Love or Bosh worse, they just accepted lesser roles. Do you think Jordan made Ron Harper terrible, too? He went from scoring 20 a game to scoring 8 a game on the Bulls. Jordan must be a terrible person to play with, eh? Again, c’mon man... think about what you are saying.

But while Ron Harper’s usage slid way down,hsi first full year with Jordan, the Bulls were first on offense and defense. LeBron’s never led a #1 offense, even with more talented offensive teammates like simultaneous Wade/Bosh, or Irving/Love...

That’s not full proof that Jordan is better, but it suggests that maybe more could have been squeezed our of Bosh/Love to raise the team’s total offensive level. Maybe not.

And LeBron was certainly a lot more reliant on being ball dominant than Jordan was. Is that up for debate?

I honestly don’t see how anything you’ve said here addresses either of the points I made.

1]. LeBron is a point guard, and that’s why he has the ball more. That’s not “ball dominant”, especially considering he averaged more assists and less shots than Jordan in both the regular season and playoffs. Unless that just means touches the ball more without shooting it himself, which is true, but not something bad as presented.

LeBron RS: 19.6 shots, 7.4 assists
LeBron PS: 20.7 shots, 7.2 assists
Jordan RS: 22.9 shots, 5.3 assists
Jordan PS: 25.1 shots, 5.7 assists

2] Regarding Harper, the point was that both Jordan and LeBron had teammates that had their stat totals plummet from previous highs. The OP insinuated otherwise. The stuff about #1 offense, while interesting, has nothing to do with what i said.

In short, while I believe the conclusion to be correct, the method used to reach that conclusion is ridiculous. Nothing more.

Harper scored 6.9pts per game with a 48.3% TS on a 98ortg the season before Jordan returned. The next season with Jordan he scored 7.4pts per game on 52.8%TS on 117 ortg. In 98 he scored 9.3pts per game on 50.3%TS and 111ortg. in 99 he did up his total to 11.2pts per game, but it was on 45.1% TS on 93ortg. His stats didn't plummet at all, they were actually better.

When people talk about ball dominance, they generally talk about how much someone controls the ball. In that regard, LeBron is more ball dominant, but he's definitely not as ball dominant compared to a lot of other superstars today. Jordan's ability to generate offense without dominating the ball as much allows other players to play to their strengths more. But as you said, t's not a bad thing for LeBron to be more ball dominant - it's led to some of the greatest post season offenses ever.

[Kiddlovesnets]

So, yeah, your argument seems to have come back around to RINGZ. Just admit it, you have an agenda here, and you won’t accept anything that doesn’t fit it.

Oh, one more: do you realize how much crap Jordan’s teammates took from the media before he won his first title? Everyone knew Jordan was great early on, so the fact it took them some time and more talent to get thru Detroit and everyone else made all his teammates take a bunch of heat. In other words, this isn’t unique to LeBron either. You’re just manufacturing things to fit the goal you have.

And the whole ball-dominant thing is still wrong. LeBron has the ball in his hands because he’s been the best playmaker on every single roster he’s been on since he started playing basketball. It’d be stupid for him not to run the show. Jordan didn’t have anywhere close to LeBron’s vision, so he ended up doing the thing he was better at, scoring on anyone at will. It’s not a mystery.

Last time I checked, Harper played the entire 1994-1995 season with the Bulls and his stats were already down before MJ returned to the team. You can make an argument that Pippen made Harper worse maybe, 'cause Pippen is a primary ball handler and Harper had to share the ball with him. But to use the argument against MJ just doesnt make sense, and as the last poster said, Harper played better with MJ than without MJ during that season.

And nope Lebron has the ball in his hands because this is the only way for him to be effective. Of course, he strives in this playing style and a player as great as him should be playing to his strength, but this doesnt change the fact that Lebron's offensive game is too one-dimensional. If he was capable of sharing the ball with teammates, the Heat wouldnt have lost in 2011. Apparently the duo of Lebron and Wade turned out worse than MJ and Pippen, and I am not convinced that this is because Pippen > Wade.

MJ could continue to be ball-dominant if he wished and turned Pippen into a role player, but instead he chose to allow Pippen to be the main ball handler and focus on finishing. Great as MJ was, he was willing and able to adjust his playing style to fit better with his all-star teammates for the sake of the team playing better. Lebron on the other hand, was unable to do the same with Wade. I cant say he never tried, more like he just lacked the skillset(ie. reliable mid-range jumper, catch & shoot capability) to do this.

MJ was fortunate to have Pippen, but one thing a lot of people have overlooked is, could Pippen have improved and become the player he was had he played with Lebron? This is a question many of you should ask yourself.

A super team in 2015 to 2017 who was 4-23 without LeBron

I know we need to look at the context a bit(as they were like 4-11 with Kyrie and Love in the lineup and no LeBron,so not 4-23 bad but still bad) but who cares about the context when the OP don't care about the context.

The record of the Cavs team without Lebron is a poor argument. The team's rosters were built around Lebron with mostly jump shooters and without a secondary playmaker. Also Tyrone Lue only knew how to run offense with Lebron in his days coaching the Cavs, he was also experimenting different kinds of line-ups that ended up losing some games he aint supposed to lose. In fact, even with Lebron the Cavs in 2015-2017 only managed 53/57/51 wins.

Now you will say this is because the Cavs aint good enough, then how to explain the 51 wins Cavs in 2017 dominated the 53 wins Celtics? Regular season record aint good indicator of a team's strength coming into playoffs time, and its hardly convincing at all to use such a small sample size of Lebron not playing to say his teammates weak and its all Lebron.

But anyway, the point isnt about how Lebron can take a lottery or border-line playoffs team into a contender, but that hes unable to take a contending team to win rings consistently like MJ could. MJ went 6 out of 6 when his team was good enough to contend, and Lebron went 4 out of 10 in his championship window years.

[oaktownwarriors87]

This is just a stupid methodology to use to determine anything because you’re just punishing someone for being so good that their presence on any team pretty much immediately yields the expectation of winning a championship.

I think that's the point. Expectations. LeBron didn't live up to them. He has more hype than substance.

And I'm only saying that relative to Jordan. Obviously LeBron is one of the greatest of all time and has been playing at or near an MVP level for almost two decades.

Everyone wants LeBron to be as good or better than Jordan. This shows that people were literally putting their money on it. Those are pretty unrealistic expectations.

more hype than substance? lol.

Someone stopped reading after the first line.

LeBron get's hyped non stop, and people desperately want LeBron to be the next Jordan. These numbers show that they were literally putting their money on it. He was never able to match Jordan, which should have been expected since what Jordan did was practically impossible.

[Ambrose]

Preseason odds are terrible indicators of anything because all they are are predictions (based on money, not actual talent). What actually happens matters. Steph Curry becoming an MVP level player wasn't predicted in the 15 preseason. Kevin Love/Kyrie Irving missing the finals wasn't predicted that year. Dwyane Wade becoming a corpse in 2014 wasn't predicted. It's all nonsense. OP is either trolling, 15, or seriously lacking basketball IQ.

[tmorgan]

I’ve heard it all now. LeBron’s game is too one-dimensional ... because he’s the best point forward in history and thus runs the offense for his teams. You’re delusional. I’m done here.

[bondom34]

I'm just impressed people really tried to come into this thread and make points in good faith, expecting it to go anywhere.

[homecourtloss]

A super team in 2015 to 2017 who was 4-23 without LeBron

I know we need to look at the context a bit(as they were like 4-11 with Kyrie and Love in the lineup and no LeBron,so not 4-23 bad but still bad) but who cares about the context when the OP don't care about the context.

Cavs and sUpErTeAm

1. Playoff series won by Kyrie, Love, Bosh, and AD without Bron:

Kyrie: 6 seasons played, 1 playoff series win
Love: 9 seasons played, never made the playoffs
Bosh: 9 seasons played, 0-2 in playoffs series
AD: 7 seasons played, 1 playoff series win

Played two seasons with a healthy Wade who was nonetheless in decline starting as early as 2012 and then the Heat were better within him off court in 2013 and 2014 playoffs. And in 2011, the closest thing to a superteam, the Heat had the worst supporting role players.

2. Cavs were NEVER a super team.

Kyrie + Love on court, LeBron off court, 2015–2017

539 minutes, 1181 possessions

108.0 ORating
110.6 DRating

Nice “Super team”; they were -2.6 per 100 possessions, equivalent to like a 35 win team at best without LeBron. Notice that the offense didn’t collapse because “LeBron controls everything” or “the team is built around LeBron” but the defense was trash. 108 ORtg is good enough to be a top 10 offense in 2015 and 2016 and just below league average in 2017. 110.6 DRating is complete garbage.

BTW, LeBron on court and Kyrie + Love OFF court.

1313 minutes, 2572 possessions

110.4 ORating
105 DRating

He did just fine playing with Delladova, Tristan, Shumoert, Jefferson, Frye, Mozgov, etc.

Man, LeBron sure did play on some super teams.

2014 Heat were -.5 per 100 possessions without him on court, -6.4 in the playoffs
2015 Cavs were -5.8 per 100 possessions without him on court, +.8 in the playoffs
2016 Cavs were -4.7 per 100 possessions without him on court, -6.4 in the playoffs.
2017 Cavs were -8.8 per 100 possessions without him on court, -17.6 in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the 2017 GSW were +6.5 per 100 possessions without Durant on court, +8.8 in the playoffs

2018 GSW were +4.8 per 100 possessions without Durant on court, +.9 in the playoffs.

[Kiddlovesnets]

Preseason odds are terrible indicators of anything because all they are are predictions (based on money, not actual talent). What actually happens matters. Steph Curry becoming an MVP level player wasn't predicted in the 15 preseason. Kevin Love/Kyrie Irving missing the finals wasn't predicted that year. Dwyane Wade becoming a corpse in 2014 wasn't predicted. It's all nonsense. OP is either trolling, 15, or seriously lacking basketball IQ.

The pre-season odds are great indicators of team actual talents, you acting like the betters and the gambling companies are stupid which is not true. More talented teams are more likely to win the title so the odds are lower(less return on investment), while less talented teams are less likely to win the title so odds are higher. Curry had an MVP season and yet in the finals he was always outplayed by Irving. The pre-season odds aint a prediction for regular season, its for the actual champion.

So Wade in 2014 was a corpose so Lebron deserves a pass? Then how about Pippen playing injured and subpar in 1998 and Rodman got absolutely dominated by Malone? The difference is, MJ won despite Pippen nowhere near his old self, while Lebron lost in a humiliating fashion to the Spurs. Of course this is some kind of serious adversity to overcome, but MJ the GOAT would not fail with such challenges. When we are comparing a player to MJ, the standard is very different. Perhaps you should check your own basketball IQ before questioning others, you aint a very smart poster and maybe you are a troll yourself.

I'm just impressed people really tried to come into this thread and make points in good faith, expecting it to go anywhere.

Yeah thats what I did, I made my points in good faith hoping that you guys will see the truth and how Lebron is not close to MJ's level at all. Unfortunately, this is not going anywhere because people have such double standards. A lot of them asked me to use context(which I did already giving Lebron a pass in 2008/2019), while they use MJ's wizards years as argument.

[tmorgan]

LeBron is not the best scorer, shooter, passer, rebounder, defender, leader, or achiever in history, but I’ll be damned if he isn’t the best combination of all of them. You’re blind if you don’t see it.

[homecourtloss]

I saw that RealGM actually voted Lebron as GOAT, which makes absolutely no sense to me. For this reason, I have compiled a table of season by season comparison of MJ and Lebron. This table compares MJ and Lebron based on how they performed according to expectation. The pre-season odds are a great matrix to determine the strength of each team, a team favorite to win by the odds is the best team in the league for the very season. Lets take a look:




Note:
* The Cavs started the season as 4th favorite and should be in championship window, but dropped back to 5th following the Lakers trade for Gasol. For this reason, the 2007-2008 season does not count as a championship window year for Lebron.
** The Lakers were favorite to win in pre-season and remained as favorite even after the Nets Harden trade. For this reason, the 2020-2021 season is considered a Championship Favorite Year for Lebron.

BTW, where’s Wizards Jordan?

“Most competitive mother **** who ever lived who will die before losing to your grandma in checkers”

also:

“Wasn’t really trying in Washington and was just entertaining the crowds hehe”

[Kiddlovesnets]

LeBron is not the best scorer, shooter, passer, rebounder, defender, leader, or achiever in history, but I’ll be damned if he isn’t the best combination of all of them. You’re blind if you don’t see it.

Hes not the best combination of all of them either, MJ is better than Lebron on this regards. MJ can be ball-dominant or playing off-ball giving Pippen to run the offense, while Lebron has to be ball-dominant 'cause he lacks a reliable jumper(which actually cost him the rings in 2007 and 2011) and wont be effective at all on offense without the ball in his hands. How can you claim that Lebron has the best combination of skills when theres a serious flaw in his offensive game?

[bondom34]

Yeah thats what I did, I made my points in good faith hoping that you guys will see the truth and how Lebron is not close to MJ's level at all. Unfortunately, is not going anywhere because people have such double standards. A lot of them asked me to use context(which I did already giving Lebron a pass in 2008/2019), while they use MJ's wizards years as argument.

Well this isn't accurate. Preseason odds aren't a measure of anything other than gambling markets. It's why the Knicks and Lakers consistently are rated highly, because Vegas knows it can get people to put money there.

This has been a topic of debate people have put a ton of actual legitimate thought into and for someone (I can only assume who has been here before) to sign up for a new account to do this, is pretty strange and not at all in good faith.

[Homer38]

I saw that RealGM actually voted Lebron as GOAT, which makes absolutely no sense to me. For this reason, I have compiled a table of season by season comparison of MJ and Lebron. This table compares MJ and Lebron based on how they performed according to expectation. The pre-season odds are a great matrix to determine the strength of each team, a team favorite to win by the odds is the best team in the league for the very season. Lets take a look:




Note:
* The Cavs started the season as 4th favorite and should be in championship window, but dropped back to 5th following the Lakers trade for Gasol. For this reason, the 2007-2008 season does not count as a championship window year for Lebron.
** The Lakers were favorite to win in pre-season and remained as favorite even after the Nets Harden trade. For this reason, the 2020-2021 season is considered a Championship Favorite Year for Lebron.

BTW, where’s Wizards Jordan?

“Most competitive mother **** who ever lived who will die before losing to your grandma in checkers”

also:

“Wasn’t really trying in Washington and was just entertaining the crowds hehe”

Funny also that 1986 is above expectation when the Bulls had a awful 30-52 record with Jordan missing 64 games....For some,the years that Jordan don't win the title as in 1995 or 2002 and 2003,it don't count!

[Ambrose]

Preseason odds are terrible indicators of anything because all they are are predictions (based on money, not actual talent). What actually happens matters. Steph Curry becoming an MVP level player wasn't predicted in the 15 preseason. Kevin Love/Kyrie Irving missing the finals wasn't predicted that year. Dwyane Wade becoming a corpse in 2014 wasn't predicted. It's all nonsense. OP is either trolling, 15, or seriously lacking basketball IQ.

The pre-season odds are great indicators of team actual talents, you acting like the betters and the gambling companies are stupid which is not true. More talented teams are more likely to win the title so the odds are lower(less return on investment), while less talented teams are less likely to win the title so odds are higher. Curry had an MVP season and yet in the finals he was always outplayed by Irving. The pre-season odds aint a prediction for regular season, its for the actual champion.

So Wade in 2014 was a corpose so Lebron deserves a pass? Then how about Pippen playing injured and subpar in 1998 and Rodman got absolutely dominated by Malone? The difference is, MJ won despite Pippen nowhere near his old self, while Lebron lost in a humiliating fashion to the Spurs. Of course this is some kind of serious adversity to overcome, but MJ the GOAT would not fail with such challenges. When we are comparing a player to MJ, the standard is very different. Perhaps you should check your own basketball IQ before questioning others, you aint a very smart poster and maybe you are a troll yourself.

You keep saying this but it's not true. You make far too many assumptions that aren't at all agreeable. Does LeBron deserve a pass for 2014? Hell yes. His team SUCKED. The 2014 Finals is a textbook example of why your methodlogy is flawed. The Spurs, on paper, aren't the most talented team ever but in reality were absolutely dominant. The 2014 Heat, on paper, looked talented but absolutely weren't. If you don't understand that you're further behind the curve than I thought.

[Homer38]

The 2014 Heat were a lottery team without James....same for the 2018 cavs.