Odinn21 wrote:sansterre wrote:...
What I see is, you're arguing over general conceptions those are not present in here and you're trying to over-correct those general perceptions.
1) I've already said that I'm looking at career value. Saying that KJ's prime was better isn't really persuasive, as I haven't really argued that point.
2) Saying that neither of them are Moncrief-level defenders so therefor are comparable defensively is pretty disingenuous. Obviously we don't know, but the limited metrics we have like Hornacek far more, and Hornacek's reputation defensively is generally about neutral, where KJ's reputation varies from 'average' to 'rly bad'. Given the data at hand, we probably should assume that Hornacek was the more valuable defender, perhaps by a fair amount.
3) That said, I'll stipulate that if we were going purely by offensive value, I'd give it to KJ even for career value. But I don't think there's a lot of evidence for that position.
4) Likewise, if I've already stipulated that Hornacek was bad at floor-raising, saying "but he was bad at floor-raising!" won't really be persuasive.
We have 9.4k minutes from KJ in the AuRPM window. His numbers:
1994: +2.3 for 2.5k minutes
1995: +0.8 for 1.4k minutes
1996: +2.4 for 2.0k minutes
1997: +0.7 for 2.7k minutes
1998: +0.7 for 1.3k minutes
We have 13.9k minutes from Hornacek in the AuRPM window. His numbers:
1995: +3.4 for 2.7k minutes
1996: +2.8 for 2.6k minutes
1997: +5.9 for 2.6k minutes
1998: +5.2 for 2.5k minutes
1999: +4.5 for 1.4k minutes
2000: +3.1 for 2.1k minutes
I'll be the first one to say that AuRPM isn't magic, or guaranteed accurate or anything. But it's basically saying that in the second 40% of their careers Hornacek was way, way more valuable to his teams than KJ was to his.
Their box score numbers for these seasons?
Hornacek: 0.179 WS/48, +3.0 OBPM, +0.6 DBPM, +3.6 BPM
Johnson: 0.181 WS/48, +4.1 OBPM, -0.4 DBPM, +3.6 BPM
So the box score metrics think they were comparable per-minute, but Hornacek played more, making him more valuable.
You may argue that VORP is biased against KJ because it has Hornacek's DBPM as considerably higher than KJ's. And that DBPM is highly unreliable. But how then do you square the fact that AuRPM thinks that Hornacek was *way* more valuable for this span of their careers?
My position is pretty simple: most metrics seem to think that Hornacek added more career value than Johnson did. Box score, Impact, whatever, they're all fairly aligned.
For me to believe that KJ had a more valuable career I'd pretty much have to believe:
1) that AuRPM is garbage and means nothing; and
2) that WOWYR is garbage and means nothing; and
3) that KJ's box-score metric value underrates him because
a) it doesn't realize that he was actually a good defender and/or
b) it underrates how earth-shaking his offensive impact during his prime seasons was.
I'm not at #1, am halfway to #2, don't have any reason to believe 3a and am open to 3b, but there isn't a lot of evidence for it.