RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 (Shawn Marion)

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 (Shawn Marion) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:04 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. ???

Target stop-time about 9pm EST on Thursday.
Remember to keep tabs on who is getting votes, and update your ordered list as needed. Thanks....

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:07 am

1st vote: Shawn Marion
Yeah, I swapped him ahead of Bosh. I found I was having difficulty justifying him behind Bosh while being consistent with my criteria.
Marion came into the league an above average player, and remained so for at least a decade; brief dip, but then had at least 2-3 years after that as clearly above average.
Like Bosh, he peaked at roughly "All-NBA 2nd Team level", and had 7-8 seasons as a [more or less] All-Star caliber player.

He showed a lot of versatiliy in his career: sliding easily into a PF role when Stoudemire got injured [in fact had what is, imo, his peak season playing PF in '06], and taking on a utilitarian and defensive stopper role for a title team in Dallas [even though past his prime by that point].

Marion managed to be pretty decent scorer and offensive player through finishing pretty well [in transition, as an instinctively good cutter/lane-filler, or sporadically on the offensive glass], spacing the floor [despite his weird shot] by shooting 34.7% on 3.4 3PA/game in the seven-year stretch of '02-'08.
He made his FT's well, and though couldn't play-make, he at least didn't turn it over very much. Sporadically he could create off the dribble [lots of shot pull-ups or little runners from 8-14'].

He was 6'7", but that's with a kinda [to my eye] short neck and small head, as well as high-set shoulders [like McHale]; combined with his long arms, I'd wager his standing reach was closer to that of a typical 6'9" or 6'10" player.
Combining that length with his instincts and with his quick jump (especially quick on the 2nd jump), he managed to be in the GOAT-tier of rebounding SF's [really only Baylor +/- maybe Bird are competition for him in this].

And then defensively.....
I said it previously: it's a near-crime that he never received All-D honours. His length and athleticism allowed him to effectively guard 1-4, while he also averaged a whopping 4.4 stl+blk/100 during the 8-year span of '01-'08 (and again: also being a fantastic defensive rebounding forward).

Put all that together and it's a fairly formidable and important player. Good longevity too.


2nd vote: Chris Bosh
Things I really like when looking at his career....
1) Fairly nice peak and average prime year: he was basically like clockwork good for ~23/10 year after year in Toronto. Much of that was for mediocre to poor teams, though he also did it for a couple of weak supporting casts that he semi-carried to positive SRS's, 41-47 wins, and playoff berths.
2) Adaptability: he altered his game in Miami to integrate with Lebron on a contender [semi-dynasty]. He developed a 3pt shot, and didn't complain [to my knowledge] about his reduced role. In the meantime he also became [imo] one of the league's best pnr defenders.
3) Consistent high level/longevity of quality. If you just look at total games played [893] or seasons played [13], his longevity doesn't look that great. But a couple things to consider: a) he packed nearly 32k minutes into the 893 games [CAREER avg of 35.8 mpg]; and b) he was good basically his ENTIRE career--->he was already at least an average player as a rookie, improved to clearly above avg in his 2nd year, was a clear All-Star talent by his 3rd season.....and basically never again declined below at least borderline All-Star for the rest of his career [peaking near All-NBA 2nd Team level].

It's a decent amount of career value, imo.


3rd vote: Larry Nance
Another "good at many things, perhaps great at nothing" type of forwards, who had solid effective longevity [because he doesn't have any meaningless seasons], and was an ideal teammate.
Compared to Marion, he may have been a marginally better scorer, and was a better rim-protector and passer. But a worse rebounder, less defensively versatile and generally lesser man defender, and lesser longevity.


Among those who have received votes of any kind, I'm tentatively going with this order:
Marion > Bosh > Nance > Grant > Wallace > Melo > Rodman > Greer > Hornacek > D.Johnson > G.Williams /Tiny/Walton/Jokic (I need think about how I want those four ordered; I've gone round and round in my head. None of them [DJ either] are actually in my top 100, but if it's required for Condorcet I will come up with a hierarchy I can live with).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Hal14
RealGM
Posts: 21,272
And1: 19,801
Joined: Apr 05, 2019

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#3 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:16 am

Hal14 wrote:1. Dennis Rodman
2. Dennis Johnson
3. Tiny Archibald

Rodman was:

-Top 5 rebounder of all time - arguably the best
-Top 5 defender of all time - arguably the best
-In terms of running through a wall to make a play, going all out to help his team, hustle, diving on the floor for loose balls - he's also top 5 of all time in that, arguably the best
-Won 5 titles. Was a top 3 player on his team for 3 of those titles (96-98) and probably a top 3 player on the other 2 (89, 90)..many people even think he should have won finals MVP in 96.

To me, that's good enough to be a top 70 player of all time. Sure, you can say that he couldn't score and that he was a head case who at times caused team turmoil - but that's why he's here and not 20 spots higher.

Love him or hate him, you've got to respect that he was one of the greatest players of all time:



Johnson was Finals MVP in 79. The dude was an animal. Flying around the court like a bat outta hell, some of the best defense a guard has ever played. Going all out, hustling, taking it strong to the rim.

Next, let's look at 84. 83-84 was his first year on the Celtics. The year before that in 83 the Celtics got swept in the 2nd round by the Bucks. Yes, KC Jones taking over as coach was a factor as well, but the Celtics adding Johnson was a HUGE reason why they went from being swept in the 2nd round in 83 to NBA world champs beating the Lakers in the finals the very next year in 84 (with Magic and Kareem in their prime).

In both 84 and 86 Johnson was one of the team's top 4 players, came through in the clutch time and time again and Bird is on record saying that Johnson was the best teammate he ever played with (meaning Bird thinks Johnson was better than Parish and Mchale).

Johnson was one of the best defensive guards of all time, easily one of the top 10 defensive guards ever. The guy had very good size and strength at the PG position which made him a tough matchup, early in his career had great explosiveness and athleticism, he could score inside, drive to the basket and as his career went on developed a deadly outside shot - especially in the mid range area, not as much from 3 because at the time 3's weren't being taken very much across the league (early in his career there was no 3 point line), plus he could rebound well, unselfishly looked to get the ball to his teammates but would make you pay dearly if you ignored him too much on offense, plus of course his outstanding defense.

Solid longevity, played 14 seasons (13 of which he played 27+ mins a game and all of them he played in 70+ games) which was solid for that era, especially considering he played in a ton (180 to be exact) of playoff games.

How about durability? The guy always played, he was always in the lineup. Out of his 14 seasons:
-he played 72+ games in 14/14 (100%)
-he played in 77+ games in 12/14 seasons (86%)
-he played in 80+ games in 7/14 seasons (50%)

How about Rasheed's durability?
-he played 72+ games in 14/16 (63%)
-he played in 77+ games in 8/16 seasons (50%)
-he played in 80+ games in 10/16 seasons (13%)
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,081
And1: 9,721
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:23 am

1. Shawn Marion I know he complained about his role in Phoenix but it never seemed to affect his play on the floor. Terrific player even before Steve Nash, with Nash he ascended to amazing levels; always thought of him as the co-MPV on those SSOL teams (with Amare as overrated).

2. Dennis Rodman -- Yes, one of the great headcases in NBA history (but for that matter so was Jordan, just in a different way). But also a legit GOAT rebounder candidate and a brutal defender when focused on that. Watching him, he just affects the game in so many ways (mainly good but some bad as well). If he had Bo Outlaw's personality, he'd be top 50 for me.

3. Larry Nance -- Two long, very good career guys are the next two on my list. Neither graduated to "great" in my book but made very consistent contribution both as very good (not great) defenders and good offensive players. I have Larry Nance over Horace Grant because he more successfully approaching having a great impact with his shotblocking; he was the greatest shotblocking non-center to ever play in the league (counting guys like Duncan as centers because they played there a lot). He was also a higher percentage shooter and one of the great finishers with outstanding hops and quickness for a guy his size. He won the first NBA (not ABA) Slam Dunk competition over Julius Erving but despite this, managed to stay under the radar of the casual fan and sportswriters. Grant's advantage comes from his role in some very successful teams and his superior passing and turnover economy; he was also stronger in terms of post defense where "the Thin Man" could be pushed by the wide bodies of the NBA.

I am looking at H. Grant, Greer, Jeff Hornacek, Moncrief, Hill, Worthy, Hawkins, DJ, Ben Wallace in roughly that order. I don't have Walton on my top 100 despite his iconic status (and not sure about Hawkins or even Moncrief either). I don't see Jokic as top 100 without including this year and he would be behind Dan Issel and Bill Walton.

Looking at the list from 2017, the following names have not been voted in yet:

71 Sidney Moncrief
(72 Paul Arizin)
73 Grant Hill
74 Bobby Jones
75 Chris Bosh
(76 Tony Parker)
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. Ben Wallace
80. Dan Issel
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,081
And1: 9,721
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#5 » by penbeast0 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:24 am

Sidney Moncrief v. Grant Hill v. James Worthy (Using per 100 stats to lessen era/minute differentials)

Moncrief 5 year prime: ~36.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5 r, 6.1 a, ~.590 ts%, 4 1st team All-Defense, 1 2nd team, 2xDPOY, 1 1st All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA. 2 years pre-prime, 3 hobbled years post prime (ignoring years with less than 50 games played other than 1999). Surprisingly his rebounding per 100 is actually equal to Worthy's.

Hill 6 year prime: ~29 mpg, 30 p, 11 r, 8.5 a, .540ts%, 1 1st team All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA, 6 solid post prime seasons. Hill was the focus of the Detroit offense; both of the others played on deep teams that spread the ball around. He was also the primary distributor while the others were more secondary distributors or finishers.

Worthy 7 year prime (85-91): ~35.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5r, 4.5 a, ~.570ts%, 2 x All-NBA 3rd, 1FMVP, I have his 1st 2 years as pre-prime as his scoring load was significantly less and his last 3 years as post-prime as his efficiency dropped significantly. The healthiest of the bunch, probably the lowest RS peaks. His scoring volume may have been hurt a bit by all the talent on the Lakers, on the other hand, playing with Magic (as compared to say Brian Winters or Lindsey Hunter at PG) probably helped his efficiency.

I have these three as:

1. Moncrief -- his prime was shorter but a lot stronger. He was one of the NBA's all time great defenders, the others were both solid but not outstanding, plus offensively he's at least arguably the strongest of the 3 with the highest shooting efficiency at equivalent scoring volume. The monster defense for 5 years is worth more to me than 1 or 2 years of extra years of equivalent offense and decent defense and the extra role player years don't move the needle that much in comparison.

2. Hill's case is based on his rebounding and playmaking from the 3, though his scoring efficiency was less, plus his long post-prime career where he reinvented himself as a 3 and D guy. The rebounding and playmaking is certainly an argument in his favor, he rebounds significantly better as a 3/2 guy than the 3/4 Worthy and gets more assists than the 2/1 Moncrief (though a lot of that is role). His career outside his prime is better than Worthy's and significantly better than Moncrief's, enough to make it close but not enough for me to put him higher.

3. Worthy is the lowest of the 3, an efficient scorer but despite playing a lot of PF, a weak rebounder. He was blessed to play with the most talent around him and thus had a stronger playoff resume, his case is based on that, particularly his FMVP season. His career was actually shorter than Hill's in number of games despite his better health. 926 games to 1026 for Hill (and 767 for Moncrief).

Let's look at those playoff numbers in their primes again using per 100 possessions:

Worthy ~39mpg 28p, 7r, 4.5a, .580 ts%
Hill ~38mpg, 32.7p, 11r, 9a, .520ts% (only 13 games to avoid using 00 when he was injured)
Moncrief ~40mpg, 25p, 7r, 5.5a, .575ts%

I don't think this makes Worthy's case appreciably stronger although he certainly played a lot more playoff games than the other two due to his situation in LA.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Cavsfansince84
RealGM
Posts: 14,725
And1: 11,268
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#6 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:51 am

78. Hal Greer
-7x all nba 2nd team. 9-10 year prime where he is between 20-23ppg on very good efficiency(ts+ between 103 and 106) while being a + defender. Many high scoring playoff runs including the 67 title Sixers that he led in playoff scoring(27.7ppg).

79. Jerry Lucas
-9 year prime where he averages 18.8/17.6/3.2 on ts+ of 112 with 4 seasons of ts add over 200
-5x all nba(3x 1st, 2x 2nd), 2x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 5th)
-one of the great outside shooting bigs of all time
-key contributor on the 73 champion Knicks

80. Dave DeBusschere
-10 yr prime where he averages 16.5/11.3/2.9 on ts+ of 96
-6x all defense 1st team, 1x all nba 2nd team
-Finishes top 11 in mvp voting from 72-74 while playing for Knicks teams that win lots of games after Reed has injuries
-Big part of two Knicks title teams
-Known for being gritty defender/rebounder and great team guy who also could hit big shots in the playoffs

81. Johnston
82. Cunningham
83. Wallace
84. Worthy
85. Cheeks
86. Rodman
87. Hill
88. Mullin
89. Lillard
90. Marion
91. DJohnson
92. Nance
93. Porter
94. Melo
95. Issel
96. Butler
97. Moncrief
98. Jokic
99. Dumars
100. Griffin
sansterre
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,312
And1: 1,816
Joined: Oct 22, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#7 » by sansterre » Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:56 pm

1. Larry Nance - I know that nobody else has mentioned him (except for TRex bringing his name up to me). But I'm telling you, Larry Nance was considerably better than you think. You know that Bill James observation that people like players who do one thing historically well more than players who are quite good at everything (Lou Brock vs. Ron Santo is a good example - Santo was miles better, but Brock was more historically notable)? Anyhow. This applies to Nance particularly. He was an athletic 6'10" power forward who played strong defense. He consistently posted strong defensive stats (Block% above 3.5 and Steal% above 1 for much of his career) and pretty much every metric we have (which are, in fairness, mostly box score driven) really likes his defense. But he was no Hakeem or Ewing. He was merely an unusually good defending 4. He also rebounded well, averaging 13+% TRB for most of his career, but he was never great. Just quite good. Passing/ball control? His turnover were low for a big, and his assists were in the "not a liability, but definitely not strong" for a big. His scoring? His usage rate was rarely higher than 22%, and his PP75 were never much above 21-22. But his efficiency was exceptional, posting seven different seasons with an rTS% above +5, and four above +6. You know who his statistical (not play style, just statistical) comp is? Kevin McHale.

McHale: 30.1k minutes, 22.4% usage, +6.7 rTS, 13.2% Reb, 8.1% Ast, 11.7% TO, 0.6% Stl, 3.2% Blk, +2.4 / +0.1 / +2.5
Nance: 30.7k minutes, 20.6% usage, +4.9 rTS, 13.6% Reb, 11.8% Ast, 11.3% TO, 1.4% Stl, 3.8% Blk, +2.3 / +1.4 / +3.6

They're comparable as rebounders. As passers Nance has a small edge. McHale is clearly the better scorer but Nance (according to box score metrics) was the notably better defender. Now, I'll be the first to admit that McHale's defense is underestimated by DBPM. I'm not trying to suggest that Nance was the better defender necessarily. But if I said "Picture McHale, slightly worse scorer, comparable defender and slightly better passer" . . . that's a pretty good player, right? And I'll stipulate that McHale's scoring took a jump in the postseason where Nance's didn't, but still. McHale got in a while ago. And it's worth mentioning that McHale's WOWYR numbers are fairly humdrum (+3.6 prime) compared to Nance's +5.1 prime.

So if Nance was so good, why is nobody talking about him? Because his teams never won. He was dominant on a series of decent Phoenix teams, and then they traded Nance and immediately took off. That may sound like a bad look for Nance but Phoenix got a haul for him. They basically got West and Corbin (their quality defensive bigs for the next five years) and Dan Majerle while replacing Nance with free agent Tom Chambers. Both teams got what they needed. And in Nance's twilight years (where he was still very good) his Cavs were quite good, breaking 50+ wins several times. But he was never on a team that made the Finals. And frankly my dear, I don't give a damn. Nance was an excellent all-around player that both impact metrics (WOWYR) and box score metrics think very well of.

2. Shawn Marion - Pretty much every box-score stat *loves* Marion. He's at least a standard deviation above the mean of this group in BackPicks, PIPM, WS and VORP (in this group he is 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 2nd respectively in those metrics). He's a really, really weird player. Given his success in box score metrics you might guess he was a scorer but he really wasn't. His usage in his prime was above average (but usually in the 22-23% range) and his efficiency was in the +0% to +2% range for much of it. His only strong shooting seasons were from '06 to '08 with Steve Nash, for which Nash perhaps deserves some credit. But Marion, whether he played a big SF or small PF was a ferocious rebounder for his position/height. If I ask StatHead for players 6'7" or under with seasons at 13% TRB or better, I get Charles Barkley having 14, and then next is Shawn Marion tied with Wes Unseld with 11. I'm not trying to sell you on Marion being a Rodman, he wasn't, he was just a really, really great rebounder for his size. He was never a good passer, but he mitigated the cost there by turning the ball over very rarely (consistent AST:TO > 1). And he was really, really good on defense. Not Bill Russell or anything, but he was a really strong defensive wing. With the understanding that these are just steals and blocks, if I ask StatHead for players that averaged 2.5% steals or better, and 2% blocks or better, I get 6 of Marion and Hakeem, 5 or Erving, 4 of Wade and Kirilenko and then others at 3. Blocks and steals are not great stats, but those are all extremely athletic players. After his prime, Marion reinvented himself as something of a rebounding/defensive specialist, and was a critical piece of the 2011 Mavericks. He played a long career (40k minutes) and also had a strong (if not flashy) prime. His AuRPMs are good but not as good as you'd think (slightly below average for this group) and his -> playoff numbers weren't great. But given his blend of strong prime *and* strong longevity, Marion is hard to pick against here. Unless you like flashy scorers. Then don't vote Marion.

3. Jeff Hornacek - "Jeff Hornacek!?" you say. "Jeff Hornacek" I say. There are simply not metrics that he looks bad in. His BackPicks BPM, Win Shares CORP and VORP CORP are all well above average for this group. His PIPM is a little underwhelming, though still above average. And his peak WOWYR of +5.2 is one of the best in this group. Surprising, right? And yet, he's weirdly excellent.

Let's imagine that we looked for strong (but not dominant) shooting guard seasons. We're looking for a 2nd/3rd option, so sub 22% usage. He needs to break an OBPM of +2, TS above 57% and post PPX above 22. But we want him to be a solid passer who doesn't make mistakes, so AST% > 22% and TO% below 12.5%. That's a pretty specific player I just asked for. But Hornacek had six of those seasons; nobody else had more than 1. What if I loosened the terms? If I allowed usage rates higher than 22% I'd get Jordan and Kyrie tying with him. If I dropped the shooting efficiency requirement Fat Lever had four of those seasons. If I remove the assist requirement Hornacek had 8 seasons, with Reggie Miller and J.J. Reddick having 5 each. My point is, I'll stipulate that Hornacek was only an average usage player. But within those constraints he 1) scored efficiently, 2) passed well (or at least for volume), 3) turned the ball over very little (Assist:TO of 2.5 for much of his career) and 4) overall contributed to offenses at a solid level. And he did it for a long freaking time. He never really had a "Peak" because his seasons were metronomically excellent. He put up four straight 3+ VORP seasons in Phoenix, then another five in Utah. So if you're trying to remember Hornacek's time when he dominated the league . . . you won't find it. He was merely really good for a very long time.

And he kept showing up on strong teams. His age 25 season (1989) was when the Suns took a big step forward. Was he the one driving it? No, KJ was. But Johnson surely benefited from the spacing that Hornacek provided. And by VORP, Hornacek was the 2nd best player on both the '89 and '90 Suns (two teams that made my Top 100 list). In '92 The Suns posted a +5.68 RSRS with Hornacek as their best player (according to VORP). From 1992 to 1993 the Suns replaced Hornacek with Danny Ainge, and replaced Tim Perry and Andrew Lang with Charles Barkley and Cedric Ceballos. And the team's RSRS improved by . . . +0.59. Perry + Lang -> Barkely + Ceballos is clearly a monster upgrade. And Danny Ainge was no pushover. Was losing Hornacek a bigger blow than we thought? I don't want to overplay it; KJ missed almost half the year and that was clearly a driving force. And I'm not trying to sell you on the idea that Hornacek was a Barkley-level player. He wasn't. But even with KJ missing some time, you'd think the jump from '92 to '93 would be bigger than it was. Unless Hornacek was actually better than anyone realized.

And then Utah. Here are their seasons starting at '93:

1993: 47-35, +1.74 RSRS
1994: 53-29, +4.10 RSRS
1995: 60-22, +7.76 RSRS
1996: 55-27, +6.25 RSRS
1997: 64-18, +7.97 RSRS

They acquired Hornacek in the middle of one of those seasons; any guesses which?

Look. This is all slightly circumstantial. There are other factors that explain why the Jazz went from being decent to being the best team in the conference besides Jeff Hornacek. But Hornacek was clearly a big part of it.

Naysayers would argue that Hornacek was a bad first option. This is totally true. He had no business running your offense as the primary ball handler. But as long as he wasn't asked to take more than 20% of the team's shots he'd space the floor, can shots at a well-above average rate, pass well, not screw anything up and generate a fair number of steals. And the combination of these things had a consistent and genuine impact, even if no one of them is particularly remarkable.

We don't have AuRPM for his whole career, but here are his numbers with the Jazz starting at Age 31:

+3.4, +2.8, +5.9, +5.2, +4.5, +3.1

Two +5 seasons toward the tail-end of his career? That's damned impressive.

Nance > Shawn Marion > Hornacek > Terry Porter > Horace Grant > D.Green? > Kyle Lowry > B.Wallace > Eddie Jones > Bosh > Bellamy > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > Hill > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > Webber > LaMarcus Aldridge > D.Issel > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > H.Greer > Moncrief > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > A.Hardaway > J.Butler > M. Johnson > D.Lillard > D.Johnson > D.Rodman > M.Price > C.Mullin > K.Irving > K.Thompson
"If you wish to see the truth, hold no opinions."

"Trust one who seeks the truth. Doubt one who claims to have found the truth."
Dutchball97
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,406
And1: 5,001
Joined: Mar 28, 2020
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#8 » by Dutchball97 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:41 pm

1. Nikola Jokic - I might be voting for Jokic for a while but I think he deserves to make the list at least. Jokic' case is very similar to Giannis in my opinion. Both have 4 high level years along with 1 other positively contributing year. While both have 4 great regular seasons it is clear Giannis has the edge up till 2020, which is why I have him ahead. The difference in longevity is just Giannis' first two years when he was barely a replacement level player so if you're fine with Giannis being voted in this range, how can you justify not having Jokic not in your top 100 at all? Their play-off resumes are comparable at this point as well. Giannis has 5.8 WS and 3.4 VORP in the post-season so far compared to 5.5 WS and 3.5 VORP for Jokic. Giannis has reached the play-offs more often (5 times) than Jokic (2 times) but both have 3 play-off series wins at this point. While Giannis has played 10 more games than Jokic, the reason why the numbers are still close is that both of Jokic' runs were arguably better than any of Giannis' play-off outings. It's a shame some of the voters don't consider him for the top 100 project at all but at this point of the list we're all simply going to have to accept players will receive votes that others don't have among their next 25 picks at all.

2. Ben Wallace - Boxscore stats generally don't do defensive specialists justice but even so Ben Wallace still comes out looking very well in stats like WS and BPM. Despite a relatively short 6 year prime Ben still has pretty solid longevity at this point in the list as well. The main factor why I'm voting for him here is his excellent post-season play. 3 consecutive post-season runs with 3+ WS and 1+ VORP is very impressive. That alone would be a strong play-off pedigree at this point but he has multiple other very solid performances in the post-season as well. His pivotal role for the Pistons in some very deep runs and even a championship shouldn't be understated.

3. Gus Williams - While another voter already has Dennis Johnson on his ballot, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned his teammate on the 79 champion Supersonics yet tbh. Gus Williams was only a 2 time All-Star so I understand he might fly under the radar for some people but this massively undervalues him. His prime quality and duration really isn't much different than Ben Wallace. It maybe shouldn't be a surprise I'm this high on Gus WIlliams because I've consistently put a big emphasis on play-off performance and Gus was a post-season savant who consistently stepped his game up when it counted most. After being the best player for the 78 Sonics that lost game 7 of the finals, he went on to post a 23.8 PER, .210 WS/48 and 6.7 BPM alongside a league leading 2.7 WS and 1.3 VORP on the way to a championship the next year. That isn't the end of Gus Williams being amazing in the play-offs though. In the 1980, 82, 83 and 84 post-seasons he had 20+ PER, .150+ WS/48 and 6+ BPM in every single one of those campaigns.

Sidney Moncrief > Terry Porter > Anfernee Hardaway > Draymond Green > Jimmy Butler > Grant Hill > Horace Grant > James Worthy > Paul George > Damian Lillard > Jeff Hornacek > Shawn Marion > Larry Nance > Kyle Lowry > Jerry Lucas > Walt Bellamy > Carmelo Anthony > Maurice Cheeks > Hal Greer > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > Chris Bosh > Dennis Rodman > Bill Walton > Dennis Johnson > Tiny Archibald
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,823
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#9 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:51 pm

Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health f their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Sidney Moncrief - Sidney does everything well. He is lacking longevity, with maybe 5 great seasons - but outside of that he gave a team everything they'd need. Incredible defensive ability, great passing, good scoring (modest volume but outlier efficiency), good rebounder and he plays well with other stars. The Bucks were a pretty consistent threat in the 80s and Sidney may have been the largest individual reason why. Once his prime really started to hit he was a consistent playoff performer as well. Not only does he seem more well rounded than some of the new contenders (Bosh, B Jones, McAdoo, Marion, Wallace) but he is an outlier in two categories, scoring efficiency and defense (and for his position his passing is kind of an outlier). Seems like a superstar almost.













B Wallace > Rodman> Gus Williams > Nance > Marion > Greer> Hornacek > Bosh > Lucas > C Anthony
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,081
And1: 9,721
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:33 pm

Not sure where you get Moncrief's passing as an outlier. One of my favorite players ever but he was a decent passer for a two, solid but not special, . His defense was his calling card, secondarily his efficiency and scoring (20+ppg isn't really "modest" volume, that would be more Bobby Jones and his 13-15ppg), then his rebounding, then probably his passing. Maybe I'm missing something here.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,823
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#11 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Apr 1, 2021 12:23 am

penbeast0 wrote:Not sure where you get Moncrief's passing as an outlier. One of my favorite players ever but he was a decent passer for a two, solid but not special, . His defense was his calling card, secondarily his efficiency and scoring (20+ppg isn't really "modest" volume, that would be more Bobby Jones and his 13-15ppg), then his rebounding, then probably his passing. Maybe I'm missing something here.

He regularly averaged 4-5 assist per game which is quite a lot for a shooting guard, and he was not an overly ball dominant player either.

20 points is very modest compared to the last guy who went in (McAdoo).
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Thu Apr 1, 2021 2:03 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Not sure where you get Moncrief's passing as an outlier. One of my favorite players ever but he was a decent passer for a two, solid but not special, . His defense was his calling card, secondarily his efficiency and scoring (20+ppg isn't really "modest" volume, that would be more Bobby Jones and his 13-15ppg), then his rebounding, then probably his passing. Maybe I'm missing something here.

He regularly averaged 4-5 assist per game which is quite a lot for a shooting guard, and he was not an overly ball dominant player either.

20 points is very modest compared to the last guy who went in (McAdoo).


It's semantics, but fwiw this is an extremely arbitrary and inconsistent manner of labeling things:

His scoring volume is "modest" because it appears so when compared to Bob McAdoo......but is playmaking volume is "great" because his assist volume is *a bit above* the average SG???

*And fwiw, I'm not sure his assist volume is notably above average for a SG [or perhaps even above average AT ALL].
League avg Ast/100 possessions during his prime was just above 5 (like around 5.2): that's league average across ALL positions (including centers and PF's). Moncrief's Ast/100 avg in his prime was 6.1.......so just a little above the ALL-position avg [and quite possibly not relevantly above avg at all among SG's].
Illustrative examples:
*Craig Ehlo ('89-'94) averaged 6.3 Ast/100.
**Bradley Beal ('18-present) has averaged 6.8 Ast/100.
***Jeff Hornacek averaged 7.8 Ast/100 for his entire career. (his final season is the ONLY season in his 14-year career in which he did NOT exceed Sid's prime level)
****Michael Cooper averaged 7.3 for his entire career.
*****Joe Dumars averaged 6.8 for his entire career.
******Ron Harper averaged 6.3 for his entire career.


I think one gets the idea. Labeling Moncrief's assist rates as "great" basically normalizes the meaning of the word.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Thu Apr 1, 2021 2:05 am

Thru post #12:

Shawn Marion - 2 (penbeast0, trex_8063)
Larry Nance - 1 (sansterre)
Dennis Rodman - 1 (Hal14)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Hal Greer - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)


About 23 hours left for this one.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,823
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#14 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Apr 1, 2021 6:28 am

trex_8063 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Not sure where you get Moncrief's passing as an outlier. One of my favorite players ever but he was a decent passer for a two, solid but not special, . His defense was his calling card, secondarily his efficiency and scoring (20+ppg isn't really "modest" volume, that would be more Bobby Jones and his 13-15ppg), then his rebounding, then probably his passing. Maybe I'm missing something here.

He regularly averaged 4-5 assist per game which is quite a lot for a shooting guard, and he was not an overly ball dominant player either.

20 points is very modest compared to the last guy who went in (McAdoo).


It's semantics, but fwiw this is an extremely arbitrary and inconsistent manner of labeling things:

His scoring volume is "modest" because it appears so when compared to Bob McAdoo......but is playmaking volume is "great" because his assist volume is *a bit above* the average SG???

*And fwiw, I'm not sure his assist volume is notably above average for a SG [or perhaps even above average AT ALL].
League avg Ast/100 possessions during his prime was just above 5 (like around 5.2): that's league average across ALL positions (including centers and PF's). Moncrief's Ast/100 avg in his prime was 6.1.......so just a little above the ALL-position avg [and quite possibly not relevantly above avg at all among SG's].
Illustrative examples:
*Craig Ehlo ('89-'94) averaged 6.3 Ast/100.
**Bradley Beal ('18-present) has averaged 6.8 Ast/100.
***Jeff Hornacek averaged 7.8 Ast/100 for his entire career. (his final season is the ONLY season in his 14-year career in which he did NOT exceed Sid's prime level)
****Michael Cooper averaged 7.3 for his entire career.
*****Joe Dumars averaged 6.8 for his entire career.
******Ron Harper averaged 6.3 for his entire career.


I think one gets the idea. Labeling Moncrief's assist rates as "great" basically normalizes the meaning of the word.


The standard for scoring and passing is different though. It's much more difficult to accumulate high number of assist than points. I mean 20 points per game is not generally considered high volume, I don't get how that is controversial. Many players suggested will be 25 if not 30 PPG caliber guys. Players with less PPG than Moncrief are going to be defensive specialist (broadly speaking). I'm not even saying his scoring ability is modest, I'm just saying 20 points is not a ton. Maybe 5 assist is not a "ton" either, but his APG is comparable to Kobe Bryant which I think is really good company for a shooting guard.

All of those players are great passers for SG, and some are basically point guard. They're all names too, not just random jabronis. I think him having PPG comparable to a point guard like Ron Harper is very good, he's not a ball dominant player.

I'm not saying these guys are Steve Nash.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Thu Apr 1, 2021 1:54 pm

You're free of course use any languange/adjectives you choose. I'm just sayin': semantically speaking, MOST people tend to use descriptors like "good" [or "great"], "bad", "small" [or "modest"], "big", "excellent", "elite", etc as a means of differentiating from the norm [i.e. the average].

So you can't exactly be bewildered that others are kinda thrown when you use "great" to describe that which is, in fact, average; or "modest" to describe was is significantly above average.


While it's not controversial to NOT give *20ppg the "high volume" [or whatever] label, going so far as to label it "modest" sort of is; that's all we're saying.

*And to be more precise [because "20ppg" marginally low-balls him], he averaged 21 ppg overall in his prime (anywhere from 19.8 to 22.5), and did so for a team that was consistently a slower than average pace. Below is their league rank [out of 23 teams] in pace for each year of his prime:
14th
19th
22nd
19th
13th

That seems like it's hedging at least a little toward "high volume", imo.
Put another way: league avg pts/100 during his prime was about 21.4......prime Moncrief averaged 27.4 pts/100 (and did so while averaging nearly 37 mpg).
Or from one other perspective, league avg usage is of course always 20%.....prime Sid's avg usage was 22.6%. It's certainly not really high, but again: "modest" isn't really an accurate label except when specifically compared to really high volume scorers.
Which semantically makes someone like Jamal Murray a "modest" to "average" volume scorer, too (I'd disagree with that characterization as well).


And again his assist rate [6.1 Ast/100] is almost spot-on average for a SG......that he got to about 5 assists per game (4.7 apg for his prime) is mostly because he was playing 37 mpg. And fwiw, I don't recall a lot [any??] of high-level dimes, though I cannot claim a large sample of eye-test. I'd trust the opinion of someone like penbeast over myself for that [he also is suggesting Sid was merely fair/decent as a passer].

Anyway, I'll try not to derail any further on semantics (though there are at least some numbers provided therein, so that's of some value).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
User avatar
Clyde Frazier
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 20,207
And1: 26,076
Joined: Sep 07, 2010

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#16 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Apr 1, 2021 5:27 pm

Vote 1 - Hal Greer
Vote 2 - Carmelo Anthony
Vote 3 - Shawn Marion

The Rest

Bosh
Moncrief
Nance
Tiny Archibald
Dave DeBusschere
Jerry Lucas
Ben Wallace
Rodman
Gus Williams
Dennis Johnson
Jokic
Walton


- 15 year career (all with same franchise)
- 7x all NBA 2nd team
- Sixers all time leader in games played, minutes played, FGM, total points

Greer's overall body of work is impressive. He had marked consistency throughout his career, along with great durability and longevity for his time. He played in 79+ games in 10 of his 15 seasons, which spanned from 59-73. He scored on above average efficiency relative to his era, putting up the following #s from 61-70:

22 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG, 45.4% FG, 80.3% FT (6 FTAs per game), 51% TS (+2.09 rTS)

He performed similarly in the playoffs, playing a major role in the 67 sixers championship run, commonly considered one of the best teams of all time:

27.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 42.9% FG, 79.7% FT (7.9 FTAs per game), 48.7% TS (regular season league avg 49.3%)

And yes, grain of salt I know when it comes to many of the statements below. I think it at least puts things in historical context considering how long ago he played.

"I knew Hal when I got there [as the Sixers' business manager] in '68. I was with him for one year," said Pat Williams, who was raised in Wilmington and later became the Sixers' general manager for 12 seasons. "Tough little bulldog. He was tough as nails. And quiet. Didn't talk much ... but would just go out and perform. Maybe the best middle distance jump shooter of all-time. You could argue that. That 15-, 16-, 17-foot range. It was like a layup to him.”


http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4498

It’s been echoed elsewhere that he had the best mid range jumper of his generation. Also effective on both ends of the floor, and could post you up on either baseline. Stayed within the confines of his game, which ultimately led to team success.

Some great videos on the 67 sixers from (I believe) our own Dipper 13:





More insight on Greer per Dipper 13:

Tremendous athlete as well, great agility & quickness and could stop on a dime and pull up. It is not surprising to see Greer fall this low, seeing as he apparently was underrated by most even during his playing days. Not being a self promoter or big interview with the press will do that, plus he was overshadowed by Wilt during some of his best years. I'm sure if the Sixers had repeated in 1968, then Greer would have been voted in well before this point. Wilt even said he was on par with Robertson or West, for what it is worth.


Season of the 76ers: the story of Wilt Chamberlain and the 1967 NBA champions - Wayne Lynch

"I think I'm better than the fourth guard," Greer told reporters. "You gotta realize that Oscar is the greatest. Jerry West is right behind Oscar, but I think I should be up there. I think I'm on a par with West.


Dynasty's End: Bill Russell And the 1968-69 World Champion Boston Celtics - Thomas J. Whalen

"Hal needs a certain amount of recognition to show people that he's on par with Robertson and West," All-Star teammate Wilt Chamberlain said afterward.

Greer needed no convincing himself. He knew he was the equal of any elite guard in the league, and that included Sam Jones of the Celtics. "He's on a team where they work for him," Greer said. "Our team is balanced. We're a team all the way. We don't work for one guy. Sam doesn't really have to work for his shots. They work for him. He's strictly offense, I'm offense plus I move the ball, too. I move on the fast break." Always intense and demanding of himself as a player, Greer strove for nothing short of basketball perfection in every contest. "After a game," he once revealed, "I think about the mistakes I made on defense that night. Sometimes I stay up all night thinking about defense, like after I've been chasing Oscar all over the court. That's enough to keep any man awake."'


The Sun - Nov 16, 1965

It's generally acknowledged in basketball circles that there are three superstar backcourters, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West and Sam Jones . . . and then there's Philadelphia's Hal Greer. Greer is the most underrated player in the league. He's among the top five in my opinion. Teammate Al Bianchi adds, "He has to be one of the greatest backcourt shooters ever." He rates with Sharman, Robertson, and West when it comes to hitting the 15-20 foot jumper.

The league alerted everybody about West and Bailey Howell nearing 10,000 points. Forgot Greer of course. "My wife and I talk about it a lot", admits the eight year veteran who climbed over the 10,000 figure with 33 tallies at New York's expense Saturday night. Howell and West reached it Sunday. "I don't like it but what can you do about it. As long as we're winning that's the important thing. The ink is all right but winning is the thing. I think I'm better than the fourth guard in the league."


The Black Athlete: Emergence & Arrival - 1968

No one in basketball is more effective than Hal Greer at sprinting down the middle of the court on a fast break, stopping just beyond the keyhole and scoring on a jump shot. "Hal," said one NBA coach, "has the finest middle-distance shot in the game." From fifteen to eighteen feet, Greer is more deadly than the Big O." At 6 ft. 3 in. and 178 pounds, Greer frequently gives away 40 pounds and 6 inches to NBA adversaries assigned to shutting off the middle. The key to Greer's success, therefore, is maneuverability and speed. Particularly speed.


Great Teams of Pro Basketball - 1971

First there was Hal Greer, one of the best guards in the game. He was fast. "I must be fast," Greer said, "always, always quick. The day I slow down I'm finished." And he was a constant scoring threat. Said his former coach, Dolph Schayes, "Hal has the finest middle-distance shot in the game. From 15 to 18 feet, Hal is more deadly than Oscar Robertson." At 6'2", 175 pounds, Greer was agile, strong and not prone to injury. An eight-year veteran of NBA play, he could be counted on to average 20 points a game and contribute steadily in assists.


The Game Within the Game - Walt Frazier

Image

Hal Greer: Productive, Consistent and Durable

This article originally appeared in the January 2006 issue of Hoop.

Star Guard on a Team for the Ages

Hal Greer made the All-NBA Second Team seven straight years but never was selected to the All-NBA First Team. That’s what happens when you play during the same era as Oscar Robertson and Jerry West, but Greer--a 10-time All-Star who was honored as one of the NBA’s 50 Greatest Players--accomplished something that neither Robertson nor West did: being the leading playoff scorer on a team that defeated Bill Russell’s Boston Celtics in the playoffs and went on to win an NBA championship.

Russell’s Celtics won eight straight titles and 11 in 13 seasons, but many observers still maintain that the greatest single season team in NBA history is the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers beat Boston 4-1 in the Eastern Division finals and then defeated the Rick Barry-Nate Thurmond San Francisco Warriors in the NBA Finals. Greer produced 27.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg and 5.3 apg in the playoffs, while his teammate Wilt Chamberlain posted these mind-boggling numbers: 21.7 ppg, 29.1 rpg and 9.0 apg. Hall of Famer and Top 50 selection Billy Cunningham, the sixth man on the 1967 championship team, says, “Hal Greer was such a smart player. In his mind he had a book about every player he played against and what he had to do to make sure that he got free to get shots. He was probably as fine a screener as a guard as anybody. The thing about it was he knew that if he set a good screen then he would be open because he would force a switch and he would end up being matched up with a bigger, slower player that he knew he could easily beat to get whatever shot he wanted.”

Remember the old shoe commercial with playground legend Lamar Mundane? The voiceover said that Mundane would shoot as soon as he crossed midcourt and the fans would yell, “Layup!” That would be a good way to describe Hal Greer’s top of the key jump shot; Sixers coach Alex Hannum said that Greer made that shot at a 70% clip and gave Greer the green light to launch from that range whenever he was open. Greer’s jump shot was so fluid and so deadly that he shot his free throws that way, connecting on better than 80% of his career attempts. Cunningham offers high praise for Greer’s jump shot: “It was as good as anybody’s who ever played the game. I think the beauty of Hal Greer’s game is that he knew where he was most effective and he never shot the ball from an area where he was not completely confident and comfortable. He never went outside of 18-20 feet maximum, but he was deadly and he had the ability to get to that spot.”


The Palm Beach Post - Apr 2, 1967

"Greer plays the complete game,' said Hannum, "He's an offensive threat every minute he's in there. He has the perfect disposition, is well liked by everybody. We wouldn't have near the record this team has without Hal. You hear about our powerful front line of Wilt, Luke Jackson, Chet Walker and Billy Cunningham, but Greer's outside shooting helps make this possible."

Greer admits that the toughest guard in the league against him is Boston's K.C. Jones, but denies the rap placed on him by some writers that he gets "K.C.-itus"

"The three best games of my career have been against Boston," he notes. "I scored 50 points against them my first year in the league, 45 against them here, and 38 this season in Boston."

While he is recognized generally as one of the top offensive players in the game, few people are aware that Greer can play defense with the best. Often, Hannum will send Greer after Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Rick Barry, or Sam Jones, at least until the 76ers' guard gets into foul difficulty.
Cavsfansince84
RealGM
Posts: 14,725
And1: 11,268
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#17 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Apr 1, 2021 5:34 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:Vote 1 - Hal Greer
Vote 2 - Carmelo Anthony
Vote 3 - Shawn Marion

The Rest

Bosh
Moncrief
Nance
Tiny Archibald
Dave DeBusschere
Jerry Lucas
Ben Wallace
Rodman
Gus Williams
Dennis Johnson
Jokic
Walton


- 15 year career (all with same franchise)
- 7x all NBA 2nd team
- Sixers all time leader in games played, minutes played, FGM, total points

Greer's overall body of work is impressive. He had marked consistency throughout his career, along with great durability and longevity for his time. He played in 79+ games in 10 of his 15 seasons, which spanned from 59-73. He scored on above average efficiency relative to his era, putting up the following #s from 61-70:

22 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG, 45.4% FG, 80.3% FT (6 FTAs per game), 51% TS (+2.09 rTS)

He performed similarly in the playoffs, playing a major role in the 67 sixers championship run, commonly considered one of the best teams of all time:

27.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 42.9% FG, 79.7% FT (7.9 FTAs per game), 48.7% TS (regular season league avg 49.3%)

And yes, grain of salt I know when it comes to many of the statements below. I think it at least puts things in historical context considering how long ago he played.

"I knew Hal when I got there [as the Sixers' business manager] in '68. I was with him for one year," said Pat Williams, who was raised in Wilmington and later became the Sixers' general manager for 12 seasons. "Tough little bulldog. He was tough as nails. And quiet. Didn't talk much ... but would just go out and perform. Maybe the best middle distance jump shooter of all-time. You could argue that. That 15-, 16-, 17-foot range. It was like a layup to him.”


http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4498

It’s been echoed elsewhere that he had the best mid range jumper of his generation. Also effective on both ends of the floor, and could post you up on either baseline. Stayed within the confines of his game, which ultimately led to team success.

Some great videos on the 67 sixers from (I believe) our own Dipper 13:





More insight on Greer per Dipper 13:

Tremendous athlete as well, great agility & quickness and could stop on a dime and pull up. It is not surprising to see Greer fall this low, seeing as he apparently was underrated by most even during his playing days. Not being a self promoter or big interview with the press will do that, plus he was overshadowed by Wilt during some of his best years. I'm sure if the Sixers had repeated in 1968, then Greer would have been voted in well before this point. Wilt even said he was on par with Robertson or West, for what it is worth.


Season of the 76ers: the story of Wilt Chamberlain and the 1967 NBA champions - Wayne Lynch

"I think I'm better than the fourth guard," Greer told reporters. "You gotta realize that Oscar is the greatest. Jerry West is right behind Oscar, but I think I should be up there. I think I'm on a par with West.


Dynasty's End: Bill Russell And the 1968-69 World Champion Boston Celtics - Thomas J. Whalen

"Hal needs a certain amount of recognition to show people that he's on par with Robertson and West," All-Star teammate Wilt Chamberlain said afterward.

Greer needed no convincing himself. He knew he was the equal of any elite guard in the league, and that included Sam Jones of the Celtics. "He's on a team where they work for him," Greer said. "Our team is balanced. We're a team all the way. We don't work for one guy. Sam doesn't really have to work for his shots. They work for him. He's strictly offense, I'm offense plus I move the ball, too. I move on the fast break." Always intense and demanding of himself as a player, Greer strove for nothing short of basketball perfection in every contest. "After a game," he once revealed, "I think about the mistakes I made on defense that night. Sometimes I stay up all night thinking about defense, like after I've been chasing Oscar all over the court. That's enough to keep any man awake."'


The Sun - Nov 16, 1965

It's generally acknowledged in basketball circles that there are three superstar backcourters, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West and Sam Jones . . . and then there's Philadelphia's Hal Greer. Greer is the most underrated player in the league. He's among the top five in my opinion. Teammate Al Bianchi adds, "He has to be one of the greatest backcourt shooters ever." He rates with Sharman, Robertson, and West when it comes to hitting the 15-20 foot jumper.

The league alerted everybody about West and Bailey Howell nearing 10,000 points. Forgot Greer of course. "My wife and I talk about it a lot", admits the eight year veteran who climbed over the 10,000 figure with 33 tallies at New York's expense Saturday night. Howell and West reached it Sunday. "I don't like it but what can you do about it. As long as we're winning that's the important thing. The ink is all right but winning is the thing. I think I'm better than the fourth guard in the league."


The Black Athlete: Emergence & Arrival - 1968

No one in basketball is more effective than Hal Greer at sprinting down the middle of the court on a fast break, stopping just beyond the keyhole and scoring on a jump shot. "Hal," said one NBA coach, "has the finest middle-distance shot in the game." From fifteen to eighteen feet, Greer is more deadly than the Big O." At 6 ft. 3 in. and 178 pounds, Greer frequently gives away 40 pounds and 6 inches to NBA adversaries assigned to shutting off the middle. The key to Greer's success, therefore, is maneuverability and speed. Particularly speed.


Great Teams of Pro Basketball - 1971

First there was Hal Greer, one of the best guards in the game. He was fast. "I must be fast," Greer said, "always, always quick. The day I slow down I'm finished." And he was a constant scoring threat. Said his former coach, Dolph Schayes, "Hal has the finest middle-distance shot in the game. From 15 to 18 feet, Hal is more deadly than Oscar Robertson." At 6'2", 175 pounds, Greer was agile, strong and not prone to injury. An eight-year veteran of NBA play, he could be counted on to average 20 points a game and contribute steadily in assists.


The Game Within the Game - Walt Frazier

Image

Hal Greer: Productive, Consistent and Durable

This article originally appeared in the January 2006 issue of Hoop.

Star Guard on a Team for the Ages

Hal Greer made the All-NBA Second Team seven straight years but never was selected to the All-NBA First Team. That’s what happens when you play during the same era as Oscar Robertson and Jerry West, but Greer--a 10-time All-Star who was honored as one of the NBA’s 50 Greatest Players--accomplished something that neither Robertson nor West did: being the leading playoff scorer on a team that defeated Bill Russell’s Boston Celtics in the playoffs and went on to win an NBA championship.

Russell’s Celtics won eight straight titles and 11 in 13 seasons, but many observers still maintain that the greatest single season team in NBA history is the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers beat Boston 4-1 in the Eastern Division finals and then defeated the Rick Barry-Nate Thurmond San Francisco Warriors in the NBA Finals. Greer produced 27.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg and 5.3 apg in the playoffs, while his teammate Wilt Chamberlain posted these mind-boggling numbers: 21.7 ppg, 29.1 rpg and 9.0 apg. Hall of Famer and Top 50 selection Billy Cunningham, the sixth man on the 1967 championship team, says, “Hal Greer was such a smart player. In his mind he had a book about every player he played against and what he had to do to make sure that he got free to get shots. He was probably as fine a screener as a guard as anybody. The thing about it was he knew that if he set a good screen then he would be open because he would force a switch and he would end up being matched up with a bigger, slower player that he knew he could easily beat to get whatever shot he wanted.”

Remember the old shoe commercial with playground legend Lamar Mundane? The voiceover said that Mundane would shoot as soon as he crossed midcourt and the fans would yell, “Layup!” That would be a good way to describe Hal Greer’s top of the key jump shot; Sixers coach Alex Hannum said that Greer made that shot at a 70% clip and gave Greer the green light to launch from that range whenever he was open. Greer’s jump shot was so fluid and so deadly that he shot his free throws that way, connecting on better than 80% of his career attempts. Cunningham offers high praise for Greer’s jump shot: “It was as good as anybody’s who ever played the game. I think the beauty of Hal Greer’s game is that he knew where he was most effective and he never shot the ball from an area where he was not completely confident and comfortable. He never went outside of 18-20 feet maximum, but he was deadly and he had the ability to get to that spot.”


The Palm Beach Post - Apr 2, 1967

"Greer plays the complete game,' said Hannum, "He's an offensive threat every minute he's in there. He has the perfect disposition, is well liked by everybody. We wouldn't have near the record this team has without Hal. You hear about our powerful front line of Wilt, Luke Jackson, Chet Walker and Billy Cunningham, but Greer's outside shooting helps make this possible."

Greer admits that the toughest guard in the league against him is Boston's K.C. Jones, but denies the rap placed on him by some writers that he gets "K.C.-itus"

"The three best games of my career have been against Boston," he notes. "I scored 50 points against them my first year in the league, 45 against them here, and 38 this season in Boston."

While he is recognized generally as one of the top offensive players in the game, few people are aware that Greer can play defense with the best. Often, Hannum will send Greer after Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Rick Barry, or Sam Jones, at least until the 76ers' guard gets into foul difficulty.


Great post on Greer. I was thinking of doing something like that but at this point I didn't think it would change anyone's mind. I think personally that he should have gotten in at least 5-10 spots ago but for whatever reason people aren't voting for him. Which I don't get because he literally checks almost every imaginable box you could want from a player. Long prime where he does multiple things well. No real weaknesses. Playoff success. Making many all nba teams which means being seen as one of the top players in his era. I feel like people aren't doing quite enough research on some of these older players.
User avatar
Odinn21
Analyst
Posts: 3,514
And1: 2,942
Joined: May 19, 2019
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#18 » by Odinn21 » Thu Apr 1, 2021 6:28 pm

78. Ben Wallace
I considered players with 5-6 seasons of prime such as Sidney Moncrief, Grant Hill. But I think in terms of best 5-6 consecutive seasons, Wallace was straight up better player and he had better prime duration.

79. Hal Greer
I respect his prime very much. Also quite high on his prime duration, especially considering the '60s standards. Scoring, passing, playmaking, defending, he had it all. Mainly, his prime duration almost doubling Moncrief's and Hill's while being a '60s player is the reason why I'm going with Greer over those 2. Their peaks are not good enough to reward like I did with Wallace.

80. Grant Hill
In terms of prime duration, Marion has an advantage over Moncrief and Hill but Marion played around 550-600 games in his prime and Hill played 450ish game (though he'd be closer to 500 with a full season in 1998-99). Between Marion and Hill, Marion has better prime duration and better overall longevity but Hill feels too good to be denied with that many games on that higher quality.

The next one on my list is Marion if my effective vote isn't on my ballot.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,517
And1: 8,156
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #78 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Fri Apr 2, 2021 12:44 am

Thru post #18:

Shawn Marion - 2 (penbeast0, trex_8063)
Hal Greer - 2 (Cavsfansince84, Clyde Frazier)
Larry Nance - 1 (sansterre)
Dennis Rodman - 1 (Hal14)
Ben Wallace - 1 (Odinn21)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)


9 votes again. We'll start by eliminating those bottom five, which transfers one each to Marion and Greer, and ghosts the other three.....

Marion - 3
Greer - 3
(ghosted) - 3

So it comes down to a Condorcet ruling again......and it turns out Marion leads Greer 5-4, so he's got it.
I'll get the next up.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

Return to Player Comparisons