RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #82 (Hal Greer)

Post #1 » by **trex_8063** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 1:56 pm

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. Shawn Marion
79. Dennis Rodman
80. Larry Nance
81. Ben Wallace
82. ???

Target stop time will be 9-10am EST on Sunday.

Spoiler:

Post #2 » by **trex_8063** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 2:41 pm

1st vote: Chris Bosh
Things I really like when looking at his career....
1) Fairly nice peak and average prime year: he was basically like clockwork good for ~23/10 year after year in Toronto. Much of that was for mediocre to poor teams, though he also did it for a couple of weak supporting casts that he semi-carried to positive SRS's, 41-47 wins, and playoff berths.
2) Adaptability: he altered his game in Miami to integrate with Lebron on a contender [semi-dynasty]. He developed a 3pt shot, and didn't complain [to my knowledge] about his reduced role. In the meantime he also became [imo] one of the league's best pnr defenders.
3) Consistent high level/longevity of quality. If you just look at total games played [893] or seasons played [13], his longevity doesn't look that great. But a couple things to consider: a) he packed nearly 32k minutes into the 893 games [CAREER avg of 35.8 mpg]; and b) he was good basically his ENTIRE career--->he was already at least an average player as a rookie, improved to clearly above avg in his 2nd year, was a clear All-Star talent by his 3rd season.....and basically never again declined below at least borderline All-Star for the rest of his career [peaking near All-NBA 2nd Team level].

It's a decent amount of career value, imo. Surprised he doesn't have a pinch more traction, really.

2nd vote: Horace Grant
Yup, I went there. See post 10 of the #80 thread for arguments, for anyone who does not think he's a solid candidate at this stage [at least if longevity of quality factors into your criteria AT ALL].

3rd vote: Dan Issel
As was discussed in the #81 thread (circa-post 30), Dan Issel is sort of like Amar'e Stoudemire (not in style, but in substance)......except with good longevity/durability.
He wasn't much defensively [though probably better than Stat], but he scored and scored and scored (and fairly efficiently: +3.3% rTS for his entire 15-year career, with a solid turnover economy too).

We're talking about the guy who is 11th all-time in career ABA/NBA combined points scored. He's ahead of Hakeem and Elvin Hayes. He's ahead of guys who pretty much hang their hats on being great scorers [and not much else] and who've already been voted in [e.g. Dominique Wilkins, Alex English, Adrian Dantley], as well as Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Reggie Miller, Oscar Robertson, John Havlicek, Rick Barry, etc etc etc.

He's also #31 all-time in career rebounds; he's #23 all-time in career rs WS.
Going into this current season he was #80 all-time [or since 1973] in career VORP.

He was only awarded an All-Star appearance once in the NBA [though 6 consecutive years in the ABA], but look at his numbers: he was posting All-Star calibre metrics year after year pretty much until his 14th season.

I don't think there's any way he can't at least be in the discussion.

Among those who have received votes of any kind or traction, I'm tentatively going with this order (have opted to move Damian Lillard up a bit):
Bosh > Grant > Issel > Melo > Lillard > Greer > Hornacek > G.Williams > Hawkins > D.Johnson > Tiny/Walton/Jokic (I need think about how I want those four ordered; I've gone round and round in my head. None of them are actually all that close to my top 100, but if it's required for Condorcet I will come up with a hierarchy I can live with).
I'm waffling on Greer a little....I may end up dropping him below Hornacek.

HeartBreakKid · Post #3 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 2:46 pm

Criteria

Spoiler:

1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.

3) Sidney Moncrief - Sidney does everything well. He is lacking longevity, with maybe 5 great seasons - but outside of that he gave a team everything they'd need. Incredible defensive ability, great passing, good scoring (modest volume but outlier efficiency), good rebounder and he plays well with other stars. The Bucks were a pretty consistent threat in the 80s and Sidney may have been the largest individual reason why. Once his prime really started to hit he was a consistent playoff performer as well. Not only does he seem more well rounded than some of the new contenders (Bosh, B Jones, McAdoo, Marion, Wallace) but he is an outlier in two categories, scoring efficiency and defense. Seems like a superstar almost.

Hawkins > Porter > G Williams > G Hill > Lillard > Issel > Greer> Hornacek > H Grant > Bosh > Dennis Johnson >Lucas > C Anthony > Dave DeBusschere

HeartBreakKid · Post #4 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 2:55 pm

Some random thoughts

- I really like Bernard King, and he might make my top 100 but over the years I've grown lower on him. He was a really really one dimensional player, if basketball was all about scoring then he'd be pretty high up there but the guy didn't really do much else, and he had a very iso heavy style on top of that.

- In regards to Clyde's list in particular - Carmelo Anthony is someone I'm not big on, but what about Paul George? Their careers overlapped and it seems like to me George was a better player, and George also has a full career already by this point. He peaked higher most would agree (2019), and he had more playoff success and generally was a better playoff player.

- Also in regards to Clyde's post, I finally got around to looking at the Hal Greer videos and quotes. It seems like him having the best mid range shot might be hyperbole, I don't know I just have a hard time believing he has a better jumper than Sharman or West.

- What makes Dennis Johnson better than Chris Bosh? They score around the same amount of points, Bosh probably has more defensive impact because he is a PnR big. DJ wasn't the best playmaker, one of the weaker ones for a point guard.

- I gave Grant Hill a pretty good ranking but I feel like it's based off of name value and perhaps overrating regular season dominance. It seems like his post season scoring was a real problem, and I certainly remember watching him in the playoffs and thinking he was too soft to be a consistent scorer (not soft mentally, but his play style). He was a legit point forward which is nice but someone like Gus Williams can essentially do the same thing that Hill does despite not having the reputation as a scorer.

Hal14 · Post #5 » by **Hal14** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 4:17 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:- What makes Dennis Johnson better than Chris Bosh? They score around the same amount of points, Bosh probably has more defensive impact because he is a PnR big. DJ wasn't the best playmaker, one of the weaker ones for a point guard.

1) Bosh was a pretty good PnR defender but c'mon now. There's no comparison here. Dennis Johnson is one of the best defensive guards of all time. Honestly the only guards who I can say for certain were better defensively were Jordan and probably Payton and that's it. Moncrief/Frazier/Kidd/Dumars/Cooper/Stockton/DJ are all on that next tier and I think DJ was just as good (if not better) defensively than those guys. After that you look at Alvin Robertson/CP3/KC Jones/Ginobili, etc. Bowen and Hondo are considered more of a SF than a guard. Some would even call DJ the best defensive guard of all time.

In case you're not familiar with DJ's defense, here's a glimpse:

Watch on YouTube

On defense, DJ was smart as hell, he made you work for every shot, every inch. He knew how to be aggressive as hell, without fouling. He got steals, and blocked shots. And even when he didn't make a steal or a block, he stayed in front of his man, was good on help, knowing exactly how much to help without leaving his man open.

2) As far as being a a weak playmaker for a PG. He didn't even play PG in Seattle, he was a SG. In Phoenix they needed him to score so he was more of a scorer. But his assist numbers did go up during his time in Phoenix, as he did play some PG. It wasn't really until Boston that he was strictly a PG who wasn't relied upon to carry a lot of the offense. And in Boston his assist numbers shot up, averaging 6+ APG 5 times and 7+ APG twice. With that being said, the Celtics ran an offense predicated on ball movement where all 5 guys are touching the ball. The 86 Celtics were considered by many to be the best passing team of all time. It was very different than a Chris Paul led offense, where he just dribbles the ball for 20 seconds, until someone is open then Paul passes to him, gets the assist and everyone thinks he's this amazing play maker. The Celtics who had 5 guys all passing the ball and 5 guys who could score. So you didn't have just 1 guy with super high usage which would allow them to rack up assists. Given the type of offense they ran, DJ had really good assist numbers, especially compared to other PGs in the league. Simply put, DJ did exactly what the Celtics needed them to do in order to win. He gave them just the right play making, defense and scoring they needed from him without trying to do too much. He made 2 of the most clutch shots in Celtics history, the game winning foul line jump shot in the finals vs the Lakers and the game winning layup off the dish by Bird in 87 vs the Pistons.

3) Bird said DJ is the best teammate he ever played with (meaning better than Parish and Mchale). Meanwhile, Bosh is best known for looking like a dinosaur, having a blood clot which cut his career short and making a clutch rebound in the finals for the Heat which he probably wouldn't have made if Duncan was in the game

4) You don't see any way DJ could be better than Bosh, huh? I guess I missed the part of Bosh's career when he won NBA finals MVP, flying around the court like a bat out of hell making insane plays on both sides of the ball like DJ did in 79

sansterre · Post #6 » by **sansterre** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 4:31 pm

Hal14 wrote:2) As far as being a a weak playmaker for a PG. He didn't even play PG in Seattle.

The hard part is that as an offensive player he wasn't a particularly good passer *and* wasn't a particularly good scorer.

His defensive impact in the early half of his career was unquestionably excellent, probably up there with anyone's five-year defensive impact as a guard.

But a mediocre shooting (non-spacing), mediocre passing guard has a really, really long hill to climb to match value with the guys here.

A Ben Wallace can be a terrible scorer and weak passer, but his rebounding and defensive impact are so massive that he totally can earn a spot at this level. But Wallace is a big.

Let us stipulate to the idea that DJ was a better defender for a guard than Bosh was as a 4. But it's quite possible that Bosh's defensive impact may have been comparable to DJ, or even higher, because good forward defense is generally more valuable than good guard defense. And Bosh *definitely* was a way better scorer and way better rebounder. For DJ to be better than Bosh (from a career value point of view) he'd need to be massively better on defense and playmaking, and I think that's a tough sell.

That said, all of the above is purely from a career-value point of view driven by stats. For all I know, if we had impact data going back another 20 years we'd see DJ with a much higher impact. But for him to be posting +5 AuRPMs with his limited scoring, passing and rebounding . . . he'd have to be completely insane on defense. Which is possible. Nate McMillan posted +5 AuRPMs in the mid-90s and he was a worse offensive player than DJ (from what I can tell). But then, if I'm choosing between McMillan and DJ defensively I'd probably take McMillan (open to being corrected here).

But if you're voting DJ because he was a supreme monster in the '79 Finals, far be it from me, because I could not be coming at this much more differently.

Dutchball97 · Post #7 » by **Dutchball97** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 4:39 pm

Yeah but Dennis Johnson's career high BPM was 2.6 in his rookie year. His career high WS of 8.4 doesn't really stand out either. Post-season is somewhat better but nowhere near Gus Williams. I don't see why it's controversial to not have DJ in the top 100.

Hal14 · Post #8 » by **Hal14** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 4:41 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Dennis Johnson
2. Tiny Archibald
3. Walt Bellamy

Johnson was Finals MVP in 79. The dude was an animal. Flying around the court like a bat outta hell, some of the best defense a guard has ever played. Going all out, hustling, taking it strong to the rim.

Next, let's look at 84. 83-84 was his first year on the Celtics. The year before that in 83 the Celtics got swept in the 2nd round by the Bucks. Yes, KC Jones taking over as coach was a factor as well, but the Celtics adding Johnson was a HUGE reason why they went from being swept in the 2nd round in 83 to NBA world champs beating the Lakers in the finals the very next year in 84 (with Magic and Kareem in their prime).

In both 84 and 86 Johnson was one of the team's top 4 players, came through in the clutch time and time again and Bird is on record saying that Johnson was the best teammate he ever played with (meaning Bird thinks Johnson was better than Parish and Mchale).

Johnson was one of the best defensive guards of all time, easily one of the top 10 defensive guards ever. The guy had very good size and strength at the PG position which made him a tough matchup, early in his career had great explosiveness and athleticism, he could score inside, drive to the basket and as his career went on developed a deadly outside shot - especially in the mid range area, not as much from 3 because at the time 3's weren't being taken very much across the league (early in his career there was no 3 point line), plus he could rebound well, unselfishly looked to get the ball to his teammates but would make you pay dearly if you ignored him too much on offense, plus of course his outstanding defense.

Solid longevity, played 14 seasons (13 of which he played 27+ mins a game and all of them he played in 70+ games) which was solid for that era, especially considering he played in a ton (180 to be exact) of playoff games.

How about durability? The guy always played, he was always in the lineup. Out of his 14 seasons:
-he played 72+ games in 14/14 (100%)
-he played in 77+ games in 12/14 seasons (86%)
-he played in 80+ games in 7/14 seasons (50%)

How about Rasheed's durability?
-he played 72+ games in 14/16 (63%)
-he played in 77+ games in 8/16 seasons (50%)
-he played in 80+ games in 10/16 seasons (13%)

Tiny is a 6 time all-star, 3x all NBA 1st team, 2x all NBA 2nd team. You want peak? Only player ever to lead the NBA in both scoring and assists in the same season. And he was a key piece on the 1981 NBA championship-winning Celtics. Solid defender. Very few point guards in the history of the game possessed his combination of scoring and distributing. And he did it in an era before it was easier for point guards to dominate the league (like it's been since 2005). He'd be even higher up this list if not for injuries, but still had 13 seasons which is pretty good longevity, especially for that era.

Bellamy was a dominant center who could do it all - hit shots, score with power inside, rebound, defend, run the floor. Good combination of size, strength and skill. Sure, his ability diminished in his later years, but that's why he's not a top 50 player. If you just look at top 1 or 2 years for peak, there are very few centers who can match Bellamy. It's about time he gets voted in:

Watch on YouTube

Post #9 » by **Doctor MJ** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 5:03 pm

Sliding Bosh into my Top 3, but I do want people to know that I'm listening to them even if its not enough to sway me yet.

Vote:
1. Damian Lillard
2. Connie Hawkins
3. Chris Bosh

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:

Keeping my reasoning from before about Dame & Hawk.

Spoiler:

HeartBreakKid · Post #10 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 5:03 pm

Edited Dan Issel into my rankings and decided to rank Gus over Grant.

Spoiler:

1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.

3) Sidney Moncrief - Sidney does everything well. He is lacking longevity, with maybe 5 great seasons - but outside of that he gave a team everything they'd need. Incredible defensive ability, great passing, good scoring (modest volume but outlier efficiency), good rebounder and he plays well with other stars. The Bucks were a pretty consistent threat in the 80s and Sidney may have been the largest individual reason why. Once his prime really started to hit he was a consistent playoff performer as well. Not only does he seem more well rounded than some of the new contenders (Bosh, B Jones, McAdoo, Marion, Wallace) but he is an outlier in two categories, scoring efficiency and defense. Seems like a superstar almost.

Hawkins > Porter > G Williams > G Hill > Lillard > Issel > Greer> Hornacek > H Grant > Bosh > Dennis Johnson >Lucas > C Anthony > Dave DeBusschere[/quote]

Criteria

Spoiler:

1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.

3) Sidney Moncrief - Sidney does everything well. He is lacking longevity, with maybe 5 great seasons - but outside of that he gave a team everything they'd need. Incredible defensive ability, great passing, good scoring (modest volume but outlier efficiency), good rebounder and he plays well with other stars. The Bucks were a pretty consistent threat in the 80s and Sidney may have been the largest individual reason why. Once his prime really started to hit he was a consistent playoff performer as well. Not only does he seem more well rounded than some of the new contenders (Bosh, B Jones, McAdoo, Marion, Wallace) but he is an outlier in two categories, scoring efficiency and defense. Seems like a superstar almost.

Hawkins > Porter > G Williams > G Hill > Lillard > Issel > Greer> Hornacek > H Grant > Bosh > Dennis Johnson >Lucas > C Anthony > Dave DeBusschere

HeartBreakKid · Post #11 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 5:05 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Sliding Bosh into my Top 3, but I do want people to know that I'm listening to them even if its not enough to sway me yet.

Vote:
1. Damian Lillard
2. Connie Hawkins
3. Chris Bosh

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:
Bill Walton
Nikola Jokic
Billy Cunningham
Grant Hill
Sidney Moncrief
Tiny Archibald
Dave DeBusschere
Larry Nance
Hal Greer
Horace Grant
Dennis Johnson
Terry Porter
Jeff Hornacek
Jerry Lucas
Gus Williams
Carmelo Anthony

Keeping my reasoning from before about Dame & Hawk.

Spoiler:
On Lillard: I'm trying to think about why his longevity feels different to me than it does others. This might be a misguided notion because it might just be that I'm debating with folks who value longevity more than me in general, but there are people in with limited longevity so I really have to think that there is a contingent of voters that have Lillard's rise a bit stuck in their head because his career is still happening - which is something I think we always need to watch for.

First thing, we're talking a lot about longevity here, so I want to compare a few guys with a career production metric - I'll use Win Shares:

Hal Greer 102
Russell Westbrook 101
Kyle Lowry 97
Damian Lillard 89
Anthony Davis 86
Kawhi Leonard 82
Isiah Thomas 80

Now not all of these players are comparison points for the same reason so don't try to force a throughline hastily, let me lay it out a bit:

I've got Lowry there because that's a continuation of something from last thread. Fundamentally, I'm struggling to make myself believe in an argument of longevity over peak when the guy with the longevity edge has around the same amount of total productivity. I know there's room for more nuance than this, but on a certain level I find myself asking "What specifically am I waiting for Lillard to do before I rank him above Lowry?", and I'm drawing a blank.

Westbrook's on there because I think it's pretty telling. We're now at a point where I think we need to start asking ourselves not if but when Lillard surpasses Westbrook in our rankings. If you're not thinking about this, you should be. I think it's highly debatable who should be ranked higher even now.

Isiah is there because, wait, why do we think Isiah was better than Lillard? And Lillard's already surpassed Isiah's career production? And Isiah got voted in how long ago?

AD & Kawhi are there just for point of reference as guys who have been in the league at least as long as Lillard, have already been voted in, and still lag behind Lillard in career production. (To be clear, I rank both guys ahead of Lillard, but I think the point I'm making here is worth pondering.)

Greer is there because he's being discussed.

When I look at this group, I see a disconnect between how other guys are being evaluated and how Lillard is being evaluated. As I've tried to make clear, if you're someone who just takes longevity really seriously in general you're going to just say "Some dudes too high, Lillard too high would be another mistake", that's fine.

But for anyone who is more like me in the sense of being a bit less longevity concerned, I think Lillard may warrant to re-evaluation.

On the Hawk:

Did you know, that Sweetwater Clifton taught Connie Hawkins when both arrived on the Harlem Globetrotters (Clifton for the 2nd time) after the death of the ABL? Hawkins as a 19 year old had won the MVP of the league they were both in the prior year, and when they got on the same team Clifton apparently sought Hawkins out because of the specific untapped potential he saw from being another guy with very large hands.

The skill was specifically very useful as a Globetrotter, but Hawkins was surprised to realize just how effective it was for him in competitive games. It wasn't just that he had a solid grip on the ball to prevent turnovers or that he could use it to do sneaky passing. It also allowed him to keep his other arm free to battle with people. He was going up for rebounds with one hand so he could use the other hand and arm for...other stuff. He did this in part because he was always a skinny guy for his height (and especially his length), and so while this helped his agility he was vulnerable to brute force.

But while Hawkins took this from his Globetrotters game and it helped make him a completely unique player in the world upon his return to the competitive ranks, he had a deep belief and fear that playing for the Globetrotters was making him poorly suited to playing against serious players. Most of the signature Globetrotter moves couldn't be done against real defenders, and the Globetrotters themselves weren't ever really playing defense themselves.

And I do think this tied in to why Hawkins got off to a bit of a slow start in his first year in the ABA before catching fire and utterly dominated.

Why are you so low on Gus Williams? He kind of does everything you would want and he has had plenty of success.

sansterre · Post #12 » by **sansterre** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 5:28 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:Yeah but Dennis Johnson's career high BPM was 2.6 in his rookie year. His career high WS of 8.4 doesn't really stand out either. Post-season is somewhat better but nowhere near Gus Williams. I don't see why it's controversial to not have DJ in the top 100.

Given that his value is primarily defensive in a way that doesn't necessarily translate to steals/blocks, I certainly believe that BPM underrates him.

It's just that the amount by which it underrates him would have to be pretty insane (possible but unlikely) to get him to this level career-value-wise.

Post #13 » by **penbeast0** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 5:53 pm

1. Horace Grant Three long, very good career guys are next on my list. None graduated to "great" in my book but made very consistent contribution both as very good (not great) defenders and good offensive players. Grant's advantage comes from his role in some very successful teams and his superior passing and turnover economy.
2. Hal Greer Similarly, Greer and Hornacek were both good player, second option types who played good offense and good defense but neither really dominated. They would be an asset on any team. I have Greer first based on accolades to tell the truth; I don't remember seeing him play but his peers were very impressed.
3. Jeff Hornacek -- The Jazz offense improved so much when they added Hornacek to give them a 3rd competent offensive player next to Stockton/Malone; that impressed me a lot.

I am looking at Sidney Moncrief, Grant Hill, Terry Porter, James Worthy, Connie Hawkins, Dennis Johnson, Ben Wallace, Chris Bosh, Dan Issel, Gus Williams, Bill Walton, Jokic in roughly that order though there are a number of other names we should also be considering. Bosh is the one I need to think about and possibly move up but he never impressed me that much in terms of eye test so it would have to be the kind of statistical impact that Rasheed Wallace had.

Looking at the list from 2017, the following names have not been voted in yet:

71 Sidney Moncrief
73 Grant Hill
75 Chris Bosh
78. Hal Greer
80. Dan Issel

For the rest:
Sidney Moncrief v. Grant Hill v. James Worthy (Using per 100 stats to lessen era/minute differentials)

Moncrief 5 year prime: ~36.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5 r, 6.1 a, ~.590 ts%, 4 1st team All-Defense, 1 2nd team, 2xDPOY, 1 1st All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA. 2 years pre-prime, 3 hobbled years post prime (ignoring years with less than 50 games played other than 1999). Surprisingly his rebounding per 100 is actually equal to Worthy's.

Hill 6 year prime: ~29 mpg, 30 p, 11 r, 8.5 a, .540ts%, 1 1st team All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA, 6 solid post prime seasons. Hill was the focus of the Detroit offense; both of the others played on deep teams that spread the ball around. He was also the primary distributor while the others were more secondary distributors or finishers.

Worthy 7 year prime (85-91): ~35.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5r, 4.5 a, ~.570ts%, 2 x All-NBA 3rd, 1FMVP, I have his 1st 2 years as pre-prime as his scoring load was significantly less and his last 3 years as post-prime as his efficiency dropped significantly. The healthiest of the bunch, probably the lowest RS peaks. His scoring volume may have been hurt a bit by all the talent on the Lakers, on the other hand, playing with Magic (as compared to say Brian Winters or Lindsey Hunter at PG) probably helped his efficiency.

I have these three as:

1. Moncrief -- his prime was shorter but a lot stronger. He was one of the NBA's all time great defenders, the others were both solid but not outstanding, plus offensively he's at least arguably the strongest of the 3 with the highest shooting efficiency at equivalent scoring volume. The monster defense for 5 years is worth more to me than 1 or 2 years of extra years of equivalent offense and decent defense and the extra role player years don't move the needle that much in comparison.

2. Hill's case is based on his rebounding and playmaking from the 3, though his scoring efficiency was less, plus his long post-prime career where he reinvented himself as a 3 and D guy. The rebounding and playmaking is certainly an argument in his favor, he rebounds significantly better as a 3/2 guy than the 3/4 Worthy and gets more assists than the 2/1 Moncrief (though a lot of that is role). His career outside his prime is better than Worthy's and significantly better than Moncrief's, enough to make it close but not enough for me to put him higher.

3. Worthy is the lowest of the 3, an efficient scorer but despite playing a lot of PF, a weak rebounder. He was blessed to play with the most talent around him and thus had a stronger playoff resume, his case is based on that, particularly his FMVP season. His career was actually shorter than Hill's in number of games despite his better health. 926 games to 1026 for Hill (and 767 for Moncrief).

Let's look at those playoff numbers in their primes again using per 100 possessions:

Worthy ~39mpg 28p, 7r, 4.5a, .580 ts%
Hill ~38mpg, 32.7p, 11r, 9a, .520ts% (only 13 games to avoid using 00 when he was injured)
Moncrief ~40mpg, 25p, 7r, 5.5a, .575ts%

I don't think this makes Worthy's case appreciably stronger although he certainly played a lot more playoff games than the other two due to his situation in LA.

Dutchball97 · Post #14 » by **Dutchball97** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 6:18 pm

sansterre wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:Yeah but Dennis Johnson's career high BPM was 2.6 in his rookie year. His career high WS of 8.4 doesn't really stand out either. Post-season is somewhat better but nowhere near Gus Williams. I don't see why it's controversial to not have DJ in the top 100.

Given that his value is primarily defensive in a way that doesn't necessarily translate to steals/blocks, I certainly believe that BPM underrates him.

It's just that the amount by which it underrates him would have to be pretty insane (possible but unlikely) to get him to this level career-value-wise.

Of course BPM underrates great defenders but was he that much better as a defender than Sidney Moncrief, who was a substantially better offensive player? Does guard defense really make that big of a difference overall? I'm just having a hard time seeing the argument for DJ as his peak isn't that impressive and his longevity doesn't stand out.

Dutchball97 · Post #15 » by **Dutchball97** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 6:27 pm

1. Nikola Jokic - I might be voting for Jokic for a while but I think he deserves to make the list at least. Jokic' case is very similar to Giannis in my opinion. Both have 4 high level years along with 1 other positively contributing year. While both have 4 great regular seasons it is clear Giannis has the edge up till 2020, which is why I have him ahead. The difference in longevity is just Giannis' first two years when he was barely a replacement level player so if you're fine with Giannis being voted in this range, how can you justify not having Jokic not in your top 100 at all? Their play-off resumes are comparable at this point as well. Giannis has 5.8 WS and 3.4 VORP in the post-season so far compared to 5.5 WS and 3.5 VORP for Jokic. Giannis has reached the play-offs more often (5 times) than Jokic (2 times) but both have 3 play-off series wins at this point. While Giannis has played 10 more games than Jokic, the reason why the numbers are still close is that both of Jokic' runs were arguably better than any of Giannis' play-off outings. It's a shame some of the voters don't consider him for the top 100 project at all but at this point of the list we're all simply going to have to accept players will receive votes that others don't have among their next 25 picks at all.

2. Gus Williams - While another voter already has Dennis Johnson on his ballot, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned his teammate on the 79 champion Supersonics yet tbh. Gus Williams was only a 2 time All-Star so I understand he might fly under the radar for some people but this massively undervalues him. His prime quality and duration really isn't much different than Ben Wallace. It maybe shouldn't be a surprise I'm this high on Gus WIlliams because I've consistently put a big emphasis on play-off performance and Gus was a post-season savant who consistently stepped his game up when it counted most. After being the best player for the 78 Sonics that lost game 7 of the finals, he went on to post a 23.8 PER, .210 WS/48 and 6.7 BPM alongside a league leading 2.7 WS and 1.3 VORP on the way to a championship the next year. That isn't the end of Gus Williams being amazing in the play-offs though. In the 1980, 82, 83 and 84 post-seasons he had 20+ PER, .150+ WS/48 and 6+ BPM in every single one of those campaigns.

3. Sidney Moncrief - Six strong seasons of prime. Great all around player who impacted the game with his scoring, playmaking, defense and leadership. Moncrief didn't have a ton of success in the play-offs but he did consistently manage to lead teams to the play-offs and be competitive against stacked 76ers and Celtics teams.

Terry Porter > Anfernee Hardaway > Draymond Green > Jimmy Butler > Grant Hill > Horace Grant > James Worthy > Paul George > Damian Lillard > Jeff Hornacek > Kyle Lowry > Jerry Lucas > Walt Bellamy > Carmelo Anthony > Maurice Cheeks > Hal Greer > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > Chris Bosh > Bill Walton > Connie Hawkins > Dennis Johnson > Dave DeBusschere > Tiny Archibald

Cavsfansince84 · Post #16 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Fri Apr 9, 2021 7:53 pm

82. Hal Greer
-7x all nba 2nd team. 9-10 year prime where he is between 20-23ppg on very good efficiency(ts+ between 103 and 106) while being a + defender. Many high scoring playoff runs including the 67 title Sixers that he led in playoff scoring(27.7ppg). Great mid range shooter.

83. Dave DeBusschere
-10 yr prime where he averages 16.5/11.3/2.9 on ts+ of 96
-6x all defense 1st team, 1x all nba 2nd team
-Finishes top 11 in mvp voting from 72-74 while playing for Knicks teams that win lots of games after Reed has injuries
-Big part of two Knicks title teams
-Known for being gritty defender/rebounder and great team guy who also could hit big shots in the playoffs

84. Neil Johnston
-Only a 6 year prime but during which he led the league in win shares 5 straight years(even while playing on a 12 win team), scoring 3 straight years, ts% twice, rebounding once and had ts add over 250 5 straight years(which is incredible). He also co-led a team to a title with Arizin in 56. So in short I think the argument could be made that from 53-58 he was a top 3-5 player in the league every year(all nba 1st team 4x, 2nd team 1x) and had a span of dominance which few players have matched statistically. Also, imo is more athletic than people probably give him credit for with good length to go with good handles for a center and outside shooting.

85. Cunningham
86. Worthy
87. Lucas
88. Cheeks
89. Hill
90. Mullin
91. Lillard
92. DJohnson
93. Porter
94. Melo
95. Issel
96. Butler
97. Moncrief
98. Jokic
99. Dumars
100. Griffin

others: Grant>Bosh>Hornacek>Walton>Hawkins

sansterre · Post #17 » by **sansterre** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:46 am

Okay, all of the new guys are included in the rankings now.

1. Jeff Hornacek - There are simply not metrics that he looks bad in. His BackPicks BPM, Win Shares CORP and VORP CORP are all well above average for this group. His PIPM is a little underwhelming, though still above average. And his peak WOWYR of +5.2 is one of the best in this group. Surprising, right? And yet, he's weirdly excellent.

Let's imagine that we looked for strong (but not dominant) shooting guard seasons. We're looking for a 2nd/3rd option, so sub 22% usage. He needs to break an OBPM of +2, TS above 57% and post PPX above 22. But we want him to be a solid passer who doesn't make mistakes, so AST% > 22% and TO% below 12.5%. That's a pretty specific player I just asked for. But Hornacek had six of those seasons; nobody else had more than 1. What if I loosened the terms? If I allowed usage rates higher than 22% I'd get Jordan and Kyrie tying with him. If I dropped the shooting efficiency requirement Fat Lever had four of those seasons. If I remove the assist requirement Hornacek had 8 seasons, with Reggie Miller and J.J. Reddick having 5 each. My point is, I'll stipulate that Hornacek was only an average usage player. But within those constraints he 1) scored efficiently, 2) passed well (or at least for volume), 3) turned the ball over very little (Assist:TO of 2.5 for much of his career) and 4) overall contributed to offenses at a solid level. And he did it for a long freaking time. He never really had a "Peak" because his seasons were metronomically excellent. He put up four straight 3+ VORP seasons in Phoenix, then another five in Utah. So if you're trying to remember Hornacek's time when he dominated the league . . . you won't find it. He was merely really good for a very long time.

And he kept showing up on strong teams. His age 25 season (1989) was when the Suns took a big step forward. Was he the one driving it? No, KJ was. But Johnson surely benefited from the spacing that Hornacek provided. And by VORP, Hornacek was the 2nd best player on both the '89 and '90 Suns (two teams that made my Top 100 list). In '92 The Suns posted a +5.68 RSRS with Hornacek as their best player (according to VORP). From 1992 to 1993 the Suns replaced Hornacek with Danny Ainge, and replaced Tim Perry and Andrew Lang with Charles Barkley and Cedric Ceballos. And the team's RSRS improved by . . . +0.59. Perry + Lang -> Barkely + Ceballos is clearly a monster upgrade. And Danny Ainge was no pushover. Was losing Hornacek a bigger blow than we thought? I don't want to overplay it; KJ missed almost half the year and that was clearly a driving force. And I'm not trying to sell you on the idea that Hornacek was a Barkley-level player. He wasn't. But even with KJ missing some time, you'd think the jump from '92 to '93 would be bigger than it was. Unless Hornacek was actually better than anyone realized.

And then Utah. Here are their seasons starting at '93:

1993: 47-35, +1.74 RSRS
1994: 53-29, +4.10 RSRS
1995: 60-22, +7.76 RSRS
1996: 55-27, +6.25 RSRS
1997: 64-18, +7.97 RSRS

They acquired Hornacek in the middle of one of those seasons; any guesses which?

Look. This is all slightly circumstantial. There are other factors that explain why the Jazz went from being decent to being the best team in the conference besides Jeff Hornacek. But Hornacek was clearly a big part of it.

Naysayers would argue that Hornacek was a bad first option. This is totally true. He had no business running your offense as the primary ball handler. But as long as he wasn't asked to take more than 20% of the team's shots he'd space the floor, can shots at a well-above average rate, pass well, not screw anything up and generate a fair number of steals. And the combination of these things had a consistent and genuine impact, even if no one of them is particularly remarkable.

We don't have AuRPM for his whole career, but here are his numbers with the Jazz starting at Age 31:

+3.4, +2.8, +5.9, +5.2, +4.5, +3.1

Two +5 seasons toward the tail-end of his career? That's damned impressive.

2. Terry Porter - Porter is a weird mix of peak and longevity. He played 35k minutes, with 13 different seasons posting higher than a +1 OBPM, and 9 different seasons posting higher than a +2 OBPM. And he retained fair value even late in his career, posting back-to-back +4 AuRPM seasons for the Spurs at the turn of the century. He's 55th in offensive win shares all-time, and 45th in VORP all-time. Most metrics really like Porter; he's more than one standard deviation above the mean in both PIPM and VORP, and his win shares and BackPicks ratings are still well above average.

Porter was a weird sort of tweeter-guard. He rarely posted higher than league average usage rates, but made up for it with efficiency (consistently scoring in the +4 to +6% range) passing well (assist% in the 25-35% range) and being a fair ballhawk (ten different seasons at 2%+ steals). His seven-year peak:

19.9% Usage, +4.5% rTS, 30.5% Ast, 2.2% Steals, 15.4% TO, +3.3 OBPM, +3.9 BPM

It's good, but not great (though again, it's a strong peak combined with a lot of longevity). But in the playoffs he got better. For his nine-year playoff peak (89-97):

20.2% Usage, +7.3% rTS, 26.1% Ast, 1.6% Steals, 12.2% TO, +4.5 OBPM, +4.8 BPM

So in the playoffs (and in fairness, I'm taking slightly different years), Porter slowed as a distributor and grew into an extremely efficient scorer. A nine-year playoff peak with an OBPM at +4.5? That's pretty nice. I'll give you a hint on this; McHale didn't have a nine-year playoff peak at that level (though select seasons were certainly better).

Regular season Terry Porter? He was a strong player with a decently long career and a good peak. But playoff Terry Porter? Playoff Terry Porter was *really* good. Do you know how many players increase both usage and shooting against playoff defenses? Not a lot of them. But Terry Porter is absolutely on that list.

3. Horace Grant - don't have time to write out the support here but it's coming. At some point.

Hornacek > Terry Porter > Horace Grant > D.Green? > Kyle Lowry > Eddie Jones > Bosh > Bellamy > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > Hill > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > Webber > LaMarcus Aldridge > D.Issel > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > H.Greer > Moncrief > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > Lucas > Cunningham > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere >J.Butler > M. Johnson > D.Lillard > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald

Post #18 » by **trex_8063** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:19 pm

Thru post #17:

Hal Greer - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Chris Bosh - 1 (trex_8063)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Horace Grant - 1 (penbeast0)
Damian Lillard - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Jeff Hornacek - 1 (sansterre)

About 21-22 hours left for this one.
Hal14, I still don't know where Hornacek falls in your rotation among these players, and extensive validation among candidates is going to be the norm from now on.

Spoiler:

Post #19 » by **trex_8063** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:47 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
- What makes Dennis Johnson better than Chris Bosh? They score around the same amount of points, Bosh probably has more defensive impact because he is a PnR big. DJ wasn't the best playmaker, one of the weaker ones for a point guard.

I don't know if I'd give Bosh the edge in defensive impact. Not that he was a poor defender in Toronto, but his defensive potential was more unleashed in his Heatle years.
I feel like DJ's defensive imprint was awfully large [for a guard] in his early years, and still passable/decent in his later Celtic years.

At any rate, I'd say it's not fair to declare Bosh is more important defensively because he's a big, and then in the very next line discount DJ's playmaking because he's a PG. If we say Bosh > DJ defensive [because he's a big], then imo we're obligated to acknowledge DJ > Bosh [handily] in terms of playmaking [even if it is only because of position played].

By the same token, we'd also note Bosh is a significantly more important rebounder [again, even if it is just because of position played].
On the topic of rebounding, I think Bosh gets trashed more than is justified. I'm not going to try and sell him as any kind of elite or outstanding rebounder; but to hear some people talk about it, he was utter trash.
But he averaged 12.5 Reb/100 with a TREB% of 14.1% for his career [that's in nearly 36 mpg for his career, too].

Those aren't great figures for a PF/C, but they're not bad either. As a few examples....
Draymond Green has averaged 11.7 Reb/100 and 13.2% TREB% for his career.
Dirk Nowitzki averaged 11.6 Reb/100 and 12.7% TREB% for his career.
Horace Grant averaged 12.6 Reb/100 and 14.1% for his career.
Marc Gasol has averaged 11.9 Reb/100 and 13.3% for his career.
Bill Cartwright averaged 10.8 Reb/100 and 12.8% for his career.

And although they were more combo forwards [played some SF]:
Charles Smith averaged just 9.8 Reb/100 and 11.1% TREB%.
Bobby Jones averaged just 10.1 Reb/100 and 11.8% TREB%.
Kevin McHale averaged 11.4 Reb/100 and 13.2% TREB%.

And as to scoring, I'd strongly disagree with any notion that they're similarly-tiered:
DJ's peak scoring season [perhaps handily] was averaging 19.5 ppg @ +0.1% rTS; he was -2.2% rTS for his career.

Bosh peaked at 24.0 ppg and had five consecutive years avg >22 ppg @ +4.1% rTS collectively, plus another post-Heatle year averaging >21 ppg (@ +1.4% rTS). Bosh also provided more positive spacing effects on the basis of his outside shooting.

Aside from factors that are mostly dictated by position-played, scoring strikes me as the most distinct difference between them: Bosh was far better.

Cavsfansince84 · Post #20 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:49 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Thru post #17:

Hal Greer - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Chris Bosh - 1 (trex_8063)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Horace Grant - 1 (penbeast0)
Damian Lillard - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Jeff Hornacek - 1 (sansterre)

I'll be adding an extended 100 to my list for condorcet purposes.