If Jokic keeps up this level into the playoffs or reasonably close, where does his peak rank?

No-more-rings · Post #1 » by **No-more-rings** » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:16 pm

See above. Do people see him on a Dirk/Kobe/Wade type of level or is he above that and comparable to a Bird or Magic?

Cavsfansince84 · Post #2 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:40 pm

I think we're probably still at the point where we are generally underrating him by quite a bit and part of that is players putting up insane box score stats has become something of the norm in the last 5-10 years. It really started with LeBron when he started putting up 28/7/7 type seasons on the regular and then we had Westbrook and Harden almost take it to a new level along with the new generation of guys like Giannis, Jokic and Luka. So without him at least making the finals I don't think people will be that high on Jokic's current season in a historical sense even though he probably deserves it. That would be without him putting up like 33/13/11 numbers in the playoffs on his usual high efficiency. Outside of that or him making it to the finals people will probably lump it in with seasons like Giannis had last year.

LukaTheGOAT · Post #3 » by **LukaTheGOAT** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:08 am

If he kept this up in the PS, it is a fringe top 15 season or top 20 season ever at worst. Nikola Jokic is tied for the 3rd highest offensive season in 538's RAPTOR MODERN Database, which goes back to 2013-14. The only ones higher are 16 Steph and 19 Harden, which are obviously historic offensive peaks. Harden and Steph have multiple all-time great offensive seasons, and they only have one apiece that edge him out. If Jokic were to carry this performance to the PS, it would clearly be all-time offense, on par or even better of the best modern guard since they didn't carry their RS performance to the PS.

But there's more
BPM-9.3 (tied for 5th all-time)
Backpicks OBPM-5.7 (For reference Larry Bird peaked at 5.8)

Simply put, if we are talking strictly regular season. Jokic is having the greatest offensive regular season ever by a big (idk if we are assuming Bird is a big). His scoring is tremendous, and the fact of the matter is 27.6 pts/75 on rTS% of almost 7%. And his 2.6 PlayVal is tied for 2nd all-time. He is quite literally playmaking like the greatest guards ever and scoring at a very elite level.

Jokic would be ahead of Barkley, Malone, etc. for me. Depending on what you think of his defense, is really what places him in a specific tier.

I'll say top 15 to be on the safe side. I think arguing he is on the level of a Bird on offense as a floor-raiser though is completely fair, so whatever offensive value that yields to you plus okay defense should be the answer.

70sFan · Post #4 » by **70sFan** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:06 am

I don't doubt in Joker's offense anymore. The question is how his defense will hold up against quality opponents.

Odinn21 · Post #5 » by **Odinn21** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:31 am

I’m not so sure. Looking at the players in 15-30 in the latest peaks project and they are so packed and close. Though Jokic is a 6-11 PG, quite literally. One of the reasons why a big PG would be so great is that bigs being inherently more valuable defenders. However Jokic is not a good defender in general, let alone among bigs. He does not bring the upside of being a big. So, is him being an anomaly a reason to pick him over actual pass first PGs as Steve Nash and Chris Paul?

HeartBreakKid · Post #6 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:46 am

I think it's reasonable he could be in that Dirk/Kobe/Wade tier.

LivingLegend · Post #7 » by **LivingLegend** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:37 am

It's all about what he does in the playoffs and how far he can take Denver on a yearly basis.

The RS stats and big games are cool but what separates Dirk/Wade from Bird/Magic is the playoffs and team success.

Jaivl · Post #8 » by **Jaivl** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:02 am

He already peaked around 30 IMO.

I'd hear arguments for top 10, would say top 15ish personally.

LivingLegend wrote:The RS stats and big games are cool but what separates Dirk/Wade from Bird/Magic is the playoffs and team success.

Don't think you want to go that road.

letskissbro · Post #9 » by **letskissbro** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:13 pm

Offense only he's probably, maybe easily, top 10 but it's not hard at all to argue ~25 guys over Jokic when you consider that he's a negative defender at the most important defensive position. I like to think of center as kinda like the goalie of basketball. Having Jokic as your primary rim protector makes it so that you have to spend a lot of capital to cover his defensive weaknesses and puts a cap on how good your team can be unless you can acquire like a mobile rim protecting PF type player and/or a bunch of great 2 way perimeter guys. I'd say top 25ish, around Dirk level.

No-more-rings · Post #10 » by **No-more-rings** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:52 pm

Odinn21 wrote:I’m not so sure. Looking at the players in 15-30 in the latest peaks project and they are so packed and close. Though Jokic is a 6-11 PG, quite literally. One of the reasons why a big PG would be so great is that bigs being inherently more valuable defenders. However Jokic is not a good defender in general, let alone among bigs. He does not bring the upside of being a big. So, is him being an anomaly a reason to pick him over actual pass first PGs as Steve Nash and Chris Paul?

To the last part i think that it can be. Size does matter, and size is the reason Magic is universally considered better than Nash and Paul is it not? Jokic is not a good defender but i don't think he hurts you the way an Amare type does.

Asianiac_24 · Post #11 » by **Asianiac_24** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:14 am

Hard to say because numbers today are so inflated, but Dirk/Kobe/Wade level seems appropriate.

feyki · Post #12 » by **feyki** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:53 pm

Let's say Dirk level on the offence, he's not better than Dirk, defensively. So, Top 30, at best.

letskissbro · Post #13 » by **letskissbro** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:37 pm

I'm just gonna go ahead and list all the peaks I view better than Jokic because I like controversy and I'd like to hear the arguments against any of them.

(unordered) LeBron, Jordan, Kareem, Russell, Shaq, Garnett, Duncan, Hakeem, Wilt, Robinson, Magic, Bird, West, Oscar, Kobe, Erving, Dirk, Curry, Paul, Nash, Wade, Kawhi, Giannis, Davis, Embiid, Harden, Durant, Westbrook. I can see arguments for Barkley and Karl Malone as well. That's 28-30 names.

So yeah, I'm not even sure Jokic is having a top 5 season this year when everybody is healthy. The box score based "advanced" stats do love him but they don't take into account his value over a replacement C on defense which is bad enough to knock him down like 20 spots. If he were actually a point guard he'd be comparable to someone like Nash but Nash wasn't the guy standing between everybody on the other team and the rim. Great numbers tho

Odinn21 · Post #14 » by **Odinn21** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:47 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:I’m not so sure. Looking at the players in 15-30 in the latest peaks project and they are so packed and close. Though Jokic is a 6-11 PG, quite literally. One of the reasons why a big PG would be so great is that bigs being inherently more valuable defenders. However Jokic is not a good defender in general, let alone among bigs. He does not bring the upside of being a big. So, is him being an anomaly a reason to pick him over actual pass first PGs as Steve Nash and Chris Paul?

To the last part i think that it can be. Size does matter, and size is the reason Magic is universally considered better than Nash and Paul is it not? Jokic is not a good defender but i don't think he hurts you the way an Amare type does.

Magic's size translated into on court impact though. He was a primary ball handler with insane low post game.

Take it as this way if we make Magic the anchoring point;
Nash and CP3 were also primary ball handlers but compared to Magic, they were more limited players than Magic with their smaller size.
Jokic is easily bigger than Magic, but he's not a primary ball handler, and he's more limited than Magic that way.

kuclas · Post #15 » by **kuclas** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:12 pm

The real issue isn’t Jokic offense. Never has been. It’s the center position is so key defensively. Why has Denver struggled in the playoffs going to (3) game 7 as the higher seed DESPITE Jokic putting up excellent offensive numbers. What is Denver defensive with and without Jokic on the court in the playoffs. It a two way game and the center is the most important defensively.

ty 4191 · Post #16 » by **ty 4191** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:27 pm

Jokic has the fifth highest WS/48 of any center in NBA History this season.

He has the highest BPM of any center in NBA History this season.

Considering how strong and globalized the NBA is in 2021, this is clearly one of the greatest seasons in NBA history (on a per game basis). Especially for a Center.

Watch on YouTube

;t=198s

Cavsfansince84 · Post #17 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:35 pm

ty 4191 wrote:Jokic has the fifth highest WS/48 of any center in NBA History this season.

He has the highest BPM of any center in NBA History this season.

Considering how strong and globalized the NBA is in 2021, this is clearly one of the greatest seasons in NBA history (on a per game basis). Especially for a Center.

Watch on YouTube
;t=198s

Keeping in mind that bpm only goes back to 1974(which mostly just excludes Wilt, Mikan and some Kareem seasons since Russell's box score metrics aren't that high) but bpm isn't a great measure for defense. So that's the main issue.

HeartBreakKid · Post #18 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:13 am

kuclas wrote:The real issue isn’t Jokic offense. Never has been. It’s the center position is so key defensively. Why has Denver struggled in the playoffs going to (3) game 7 as the higher seed DESPITE Jokic putting up excellent offensive numbers. What is Denver defensive with and without Jokic on the court in the playoffs. It a two way game and the center is the most important defensively.

Denver isn't more talented than the teams it's going up against in the West. It's not exactly a super team.

ty 4191 · Post #19 » by **ty 4191** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:29 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote: Keeping in mind that bpm only goes back to 1974(which mostly just excludes Wilt, Mikan and some Kareem seasons since Russell's box score metrics aren't that high) but bpm isn't a great measure for defense. So that's the main issue.

I'm keeping that in mind. That's why I cited Win Shares per 48 minutes, since he's 57 games in to an 82 game season.

Chamberlain was more valuable, at his best, compared to even Jokic (having an all time great season)....even after adjusting for pace.

But that's a bit of a high bar; Wilt is the greatest Center in NBA History.

ty 4191 · Post #20 » by **ty 4191** » Sat Apr 30, 2022 2:57 pm

One of the greatest 2 years spans in NBA history. Probably the greatest.

27.0/12.3/7.8 on 56.9 FG% 35.9 3P%, 83.7 FT%, and +10.0 rTS% over 161 games dating back to the beginning of last season, including the playoffs.

He's done all this 1) Playing 0 garbage minutes to rack up stats and 2) In only 34.0 MPG.

Where will this Jokic season rank for peaks?