RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 (Dan Issel)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 (Dan Issel) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:52 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. Shawn Marion
79. Dennis Rodman
80. Larry Nance
81. Ben Wallace
82. Hal Greer
83. Grant Hill
84. Sidney Moncrief
85. Damian Lillard
86. Chris Bosh
87. Horace Grant
88. Jeff Hornacek
89. Billy Cunningham
90. ??

Target stop time around 10pm EST on Wednesday.

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"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:59 am

Going with the same votes for now....

1st vote: Dan Issel
As was discussed in the #81 thread (circa-post 30), Dan Issel is sort of like Amar'e Stoudemire (not in style, but in substance)......except with good longevity/durability.
He wasn't much defensively [though probably better than Stat], but he scored and scored and scored (and fairly efficiently: +3.3% rTS for his entire 15-year career, with a solid turnover economy too).

We're talking about the guy who is 11th all-time in career ABA/NBA combined points scored. He's ahead of Hakeem and Elvin Hayes. He's ahead of guys who pretty much hang their hats on being great scorers [and not much else] and who've already been voted in [e.g. Dominique Wilkins, Alex English, Adrian Dantley], as well as Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Reggie Miller, Oscar Robertson, John Havlicek, Rick Barry, etc etc etc.

He's also #31 all-time in career rebounds.
He's #23 all-time in career rs WS--->the highest ranked player still on the table; he's actually the ONLY player in the top 39 all-time still not voted on to this list (one of only TWO players [with Walt Bellamy] in the top 49 all-time who are not yet on this list).
Going into this current season he was #80 all-time [or since 1973] in career VORP.

He was only awarded an All-Star appearance once in the NBA [though 6 consecutive years in the ABA], but look at his numbers: he was posting All-Star calibre metrics year after year pretty much until his 14th season.

I don't think there's any way he can't at least be in the discussion.


2nd vote: Carmelo Anthony
As sansterre elaborated upon in his greatest teams project (#4 team), there is perhaps an edge in the modern era in having a reasonably efficient high-usage perimeter player.
I do think a prime/peak Melo COULD have been the 1st-option on a contender team; tbh, I think the '09 Nuggets more or less proved that [they were darn near a contender; just a pinch stronger extended depth could have done it, imo]. NOTE: I'm drawing a clear distinction between "1st option" and "best player"......they are NOT necessarily the same thing.

A title with Melo as your best player?......no, probably not. But with him as your 1st option scorer? Yes, I think it's possible.
And what's more, I think he more or less proved in playing next to Iverson, Billups, Amar'e, and on the Olympic teams that he can co-exist next to other high usage scorers.

And going into this current season, Melo was 14th in all of NBA/ABA history in total points scored. imo, there are simply not a lot of players who---in any circumstance---would have been capable of achieving that in a competitive era.

And fwiw, I think he's one of those players for whom the noise occasionally was not "filtered out" in his impact metrics. For example in '13: looking at the rest of the cast, I simply find it hard to believe that the Knicks achieved that degree of success [and the best offense in franchise history], without a fair chunk of it being tied to him.

For further arguments, I'd reference Clyde Frazier's post about him in the #88 thread (around post 37 or thereabouts, iirc). Fantastic supporting arguments. I added a pinch more around post 40 or so of that thread, too.

So anyway, I'm going with him.


3rd vote: LaMarcus Aldridge (EDITED)
This was more or less a coin-flip between him and Webber; I've opted to switch and go with LMA.
I don't think he peaked quite as high (peaking at probably a weak All-NBA 2nd Team level), but he was just so solidly consistent for about 11 straight years. It's left him in fairly high standing in various counting and cumulative metrics, but he also has a handful on years in the top 15 of the league in RAPM.

Zelmo Beaty, who I'm coming to think is VERY underrated historically is the other guy who's quite close. Guys like Sikma, Cheeks, are also [somewhat] in the vicinity.
I'll try to write up something in favour of Webber at some point.

Have updated my list [for Condorcet purposes] to include ANYONE who has received votes of any kind, plus some others who are definitley on my radar:
Issel > Melo > LMA > Webber > Worthy > Beaty > Cheeks > Sikma > Porter > Lowry > Walker > DeBusschere > Hawkins > Bellamy > Johnston > G.Williams > D.Johnson > Walton > Jokic > Tiny > Draymond > King (may change the order on Walton/Jokic/Tiny as we go along, but this is how I'm currently feeling).
Could see going a pinch higher with Terry Porter......am looking into it. Could also see bumping Hawkins ahead of DeBusschere +/- Walker. I could conceivably bump Worthy a pinch lower [or Beaty a pinch higher], too, I suppose.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#3 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:06 am

Vote 1 - Carmelo Anthony
Vote 3 - Bernard King
Vote 3 - Dan Issel

Webber > Tiny > Worthy > DeBusschere > Terry Porter > Bellamy > Jerry Lucas > Gus Williams > Dennis Johnson > Hawkins > Jokic > Walton


Below are players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range. I left out older players who had some seasons before VORP was calculated since it's cumulative:

VORP
Rasheed Wallace 38.36
Dwight Howard 38.28
Alex English 38.25
Kevin Johnson 37.27
Carmelo Anthony 35.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo 34.59
Kevin McHale 34.29
Dikembe Mutombo 34
Sidney Moncrief 33.15
Horace Grant 33.05
Chris Bosh 31.14
Tony Parker 30.13
Alonzo Mourning 27.60
Dennis Rodman 21.02

Win Shares
Hal Greer 102.65
Russell Westbrook 102.58
Carmelo Anthony 102.3
Alex English 100.68
Grant Hill 99.93
Allen Iverson 98.97
Tracy McGrady 97.27
Ben Wallace 93.51
Kevin Johnson 92.77
Sam Jones 92.29
Bob Cousy 91.11
Dennis Rodman 89.83
Alonzo Mourning 89.74
Damian Lillard 89.39
Bob McAdoo 89.08
Dave Cowens 86.32
Anthony Davis 86.05
Kawhi Leonard 82.56
Isiah Thomas 80.69
Giannis Antetokounmpo 72.56

Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.

He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He had a deceptively quick second jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possessed a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he was really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He wasn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.

I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #73, and I don't think carmelo should fall too far behind. Let's look at their first 11 seasons. You can change the years, but my point remains the same.

https://stathead.com/tiny/Vr6aD

They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier. Melo also has a clear edge in relative scoring efficiency. I noted trex's argument in past threads about nique consistently carrying offenses with not much support. It's a valid point, although a good portion of melo's prime was wasted on poor PG play, which was the key to unlocking his best performance.

I'd also point out that while melo's transition to a role player was a bit rocky, he didn't call it quits like iverson when asked to come off the bench. You could make the argument that he was scapegoated in houston (to be clear, no conspiracy theories here about him getting blackballed -- that was just dumb). There's some revisionist history there as he literally came off the bench for HOU, so he did what they asked. Then last year in portland he did exactly what you'd want from a role player in year 17: 38.5% from 3 on 3.9 attempts per game, posting a positive net rating and on/off along with being a great teammate.

As I noted earlier, melo's best years came when he had decent PG play around him. Knicks management largely failed him in this regard post 2013. In 12-13, a merely average PG rotation of felton, kidd and prigioni was quite beneficial to him. In 13-14 felton was out of shape and kidd retired. After that:

14-15: Shane Larkin, Langston Galloway, 37 yr old Prigioni, 33 yr old Calderon

15-16: Langston Galloway, rookie Jerian Grant, 34 yr old Calderon — this PG rotation was so poor that Carmelo ended up leading the team in APG and just about equaled Calderon in AST%

16-17: Rose, Jennings, rookie Ron Baker

Jennings was really the one penetrate and dish PG the knicks had in those 3 seasons.  He even seemed to buy in to the fact that he can’t shoot and really got everyone involved.  Of course, he had rose starting in front of him, so his time on the floor with melo was limited.  He was used more in bench lineups that actually thrived, relatively speaking.

In an era where dynamic PG play is paramount, knicks management abhorrently ignored the position.  I don’t think you can find such ineptitude in a front office with playoff aspirations outside of the cousins-era kings.  

Then we get to the clutch play.  82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season.  Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:



For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.

http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ

[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]

Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season.  It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west.  Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.

CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK

'04 - 11th / 2nd
'05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
'06 - 15th / 9th
'07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
'08 - 11th / 2nd
'09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
'10 - 8th / 3rd
'11 - 15th / 6th
'12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
'13 - 7th / 9th

Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs.  To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs.  You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far.  

It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with.  Some more details on his recent playoff loses:

'09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times.  Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team. He had some great performances during that run.

'11 -  Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min.  First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively.  

Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.

'12 - Disastrous # of injuries.  Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start.  Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.

'13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals.  PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston.  Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well.  Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series.  I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.

As for defense, the last few seasons specifically he hasn’t been the same player physically. I’ve never claimed him to be a plus defender, even in his prime.  I’m now reminded of some data i gathered in the 2014 project that i haven’t added here:

While not perfect, take a look at how the below SFs have performed against carmelo vs. their career averages.  Sure, camrelo may not have been guarding them the whole time, but it's a large enough sample size to at least uncover any red flags.

    (TS% or eFG% not available for head to head data)

    Durant - 27.9 PPG on 43/41/87 (career 27.3 PPG on 48/38/88)

    LeBron - 25.9 PPG on 49/27/70 (career 27.4 PPG on 50/34/75)

    Gay - 18.6 PPG on 44/22/72 (career 18.4 PPG on 45/34/79)

    George - 15.1 PPG on 45/34/77 (career 15.3 PPG on 43/36/83)

    Pierce - 23.1 PPG on 50/41/80 (career 20.9 PPG on 45/37/81)

    Granger - 16.6 PPG on 45/39/88 (career 16.8 PPG on 43/38/85)

    Caron Butler - 12.4 PPG on 43/38/84 (career 14.5 PPG on 43/34/85)

    McGrady - 19.6 PPG on 45/44/82 (career 19.6 PPG on 44/34/75)

    Deng - 17.1 PPG on 45/36/83 (career 16.9 PPG on 46/33/77)

    Josh Howard - 12.7 PPG on 44/31/79 (career 14.3 PPG on 45/33/77)

    Richard Jefferson - 14.2 PPG on  51/43/66 (career 14 PPG on 47/38/77)

    Stephen Jackson - 17.4 PPG on 35/33/86 (career 15.1 PPG on 41/33/80)

Of the 12 players, 6 scored the same or less than their career averages against carmelo.  Those that scored more were only by marginal amounts.  Efficiency ranges from lower to somewhat higher.  No red flags here.


That’s 11 seasons of data. It doesn’t paint the picture of an egregious defender.

Here are the best players carmelo’s played with in his prime: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season, in shape felton and porzingis' rookie/soph year.  

Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch.  Porzingis and carmelo actually had great chemistry until rose came along, but their timelines unfortunately didn't match up.  Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working.  It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 2009 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.

When he made it to OKC with westbrook and george it was just too little too late. Not denying the growing pains, but he was in year 15 and not the same player since his knee surgery. Took him time to adjust his game as he's now done in portland.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#4 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:48 am

90. Dave DeBusschere
-10 yr prime where he averages 16.5/11.3/2.9 on ts+ of 96
-6x all defense 1st team, 1x all nba 2nd team
-Finishes top 11 in mvp voting from 72-74 while playing for Knicks teams that win lots of games after Reed has injuries
-Big part of two Knicks title teams
-Known for being gritty defender/rebounder and great team guy who also could hit big shots in the playoffs
-spent three years as player/coach in Det showing his leadership ability

91. Neil Johnston
-Only a 6 year prime but during which he led the league in win shares 5 straight years(even while playing on a 12 win team), scoring 3 straight years, ts% twice, rebounding once and had ts add over 250 5 straight years(which is incredible).
-5x all nba(4x 1st team, 1x 2nd)
-Co-led the Warriors to a title with Arizin in 56. So in short I think the argument could be made that from 53-58 he was a top 3-5 player in the league every year and had a span of dominance which few players have matched statistically. Also, imo is more athletic than most people probably give him credit for with good length to go with good handles for a center and solid outside shooting(more so for his era).

92. James Worthy
-8 year prime where he makes 7 all star games and makes 2 all nba 3rd teams
-plays on 7 finals teams and 3 title teams and is awarded 1 fmvp which includes a 36/16/10 game 7 in 88
-Averages over 19ppg 7 times and has ts add over 100 6 times
-Great blend of size, quick first step, shooting and handles for a sf while also being the perfect compliment to the up tempo style of the Showtime Lakers with his ability to finish in transition.
-Consistently raised his scoring in the playoffs from 85-91 averaging 22.1ppg on over 55% ts 6 times and over 60% 3 times
-I think was pretty clearly the second best player on two title teams and 3rd best on another

93. Lucas
94. Cheeks
95. Mullin
96. DJohnson
97. Porter
98. Issel
99. Melo
100. Butler

others: Jokic>Dumars>Griffin>Webber>Green>King>George>Brand>Williams>Walker>>Bellamy>Walton>Hawkins
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#5 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:01 am

Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health of their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Connie Hawkins . He was widely seen as the best player in the early days of the ABA and was believed that he would have been a dominant force had he been in the NBA. He was generally rated higher than Rick Barry while they were both in the ABA (a player who got in a long time ago), and the stats and results seem to back that up as well. His interior scoring, great passing and rebounding make him an easy candidate.












Draymond Green > Porter > G Williams > Issel > Dennis Johnson > Archibald > Lucas > C Anthony > Bellamy > DeBusschere
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:17 am

I have 3 groups: True stars with injury issues -- Connie Hawkins, Bill Walton, Nicola Jokic, maybe Elton Brand (goes behind Hawkins, ahead of Walton for me until I look more deeply)

Very solid (but not superstar) guards:
Terry Porter
Dennis Johnson
Mookie Blaylock
(you can add in Eddie Jones if you wish)

Some numbers:

Porter -- (clear 5 year prime 89-93) 2 All-Star games
Prime MPG 34.8, Reb 5.0, Ast 10.1, Pts 24.1, TS .583 (league .530)

DJ -- (5 year prime 79-83) 5 All-Star, 2 All-NBA (1st, 2nd), 9 All-Defense, 1 FMVP
Prime MPG 35.0, Reb 6.5, Ast 5.7, Pts 23.6, TS .515 (league .533)

Blaylock -- (clear 5 year prime 93-97) 1 All-Star, 6 All-Defense
Prime MPG 36.9, Reb 6.4, Ast 10.7, Pts 22.0, TS .522 (league .536)

Some analysis: DJ was the favorite when he was active, easily the most awards; plus he and Mookie were the defensive stars (though both Porter was solid). On the other hand, Porter was an efficient scorer while both DJ and Blaylock were below league average efficiency in their best years; despite their reps, all were in the same general range in terms of scoring volume.



Forwards with good longevity that had star "name value:"

Carmelo Anthony
Chris Webber
James Worthy
Dave DeBusschere

Using 5 year primes and per 36 min for a basis of comparison (Cunningham and DeBusschere don't have per 100 possession stats available). You can adjust for pace, length of career, defensive value, intangibles as you see fit though I will make comments.

Anthony (06-10) best two years may have been 2013 and 2014 but the years around them were injury plagued and the teams weren't as successful. 10 All-Star, 6 All-NBA. Negatives include weak defensive rep and his forcing his way to NY.
Prime MPG 36.4, Reb 6.2, Ast 3.2, Pts 25.8, TS% .555 (league .541)

Webber (99-03) Injury issues but generally more respected in SAC than Washington. 5 All-Star, 5 All-League. Above average defender. Negatives include some off court stuff that got him traded from Washington and probably most high profile choke moments in league history.
Prime MPG 39.5, Reb 10.1, Ast 3.9, Pts 21.8, TS% .512 (league .518)

Worthy (86-90) 7 All-Star, 2 All-NBA, 1 FMVP. Above average defender. Numbers may underrate him as the Showtime Lakers were stacked or efficiency may overrate him for same reason.
Prime MPG 35.2, Reb 5.7, Ast 3.3, Pts 20.6, TS% .586 (league .538)

DeBusschere (70-74) Including the games he played in NY after the trade to save me time. 8 All-Star, 1 All-NBA, 6 All-Defense (all 1st team).
Prime MPG 36.7, Reb 10.5, Ast 3.0, Pts 15.7, TS% .473 (league .502)

Worthy's efficiency really stands out, none of the others are particularly efficient with DeBusschere ranking more as awful and Webber being below league average. DeBusschere is the star defender of course, but only Carmelo has a poor rep on that end. Webber and Carmelo have issues with intangibles but have the longest careers by significant margins. Cunningham's numbers would look better if I had including his ABA MVP season.

I rank them:
1. Worthy (efficiency and playoffs)
2. Dennis Johnson (defensive play and peer rating)
3. Terry Porter (Two way player, the type that adds to winning wherever they go)

Then:
Webber (one of my least favorite players but talented)
Anthony (changed my mind about rating him behind DeBusschere)
DeBusschere (gets credit for the Knicks sudden improvement after being traded for Walt Bellamy)
Neil Johnston or Connie Hawkins . . . will have to look at those two more closely and they may move up or down a bit.
Blaylock

Others to think of off the top of my head: Elton Brand, Bob Dandridge, Bob Davies, Dan Issel, Bill Walton, Nicola Jokic tentatively in that order
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#7 » by penbeast0 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:26 am

Sort of shocked that I may end up having Chris Webber in my top 3 before he goes in. Over the years, I've been one of the least supportive of Webber (inefficient whiny immature choker) but he's starting to be on my radar, as is Carmelo, another player I thought would be rated higher by others than me. Still, I have them both over Walt Bellamy, Dan Issel, or someone like Amare Stoudamire.

How about Bailey Howell, or Paul Silas, or Jack Sikma?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:22 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Sort of shocked that I may end up having Chris Webber in my top 3 before he goes in. Over the years, I've been one of the least supportive of Webber (inefficient whiny immature choker) but he's starting to be on my radar, as is Carmelo, another player I thought would be rated higher by others than me. Still, I have them both over Walt Bellamy, Dan Issel, or someone like Amare Stoudamire.

How about Bailey Howell, or Paul Silas, or Jack Sikma?


Sikma, imo, should be in the conversation now(ish).
I'll try to post more substantially on him when he's actually on my ballot, but was a pretty solid scorer by about '82 anyway (that sly little set shot he could sling up from that sort of "modified triple-threat position" he'd take [bobbing the ball over his head]). Was a stretch big before that was a thing (a VERY potent 3pt threat by '89), fantastic FT-shooting big (84.9% for his career, peaking at a league-leading 92.2%). Passed reasonably well, rebounded reasonably well, defended fairly well [though not a great rim-protector].
And played 14 durable years, was at least a passable/OK player for all of them [solidly "good", if not "very good" for 11 of them].
Honestly, as I talk about him I almost start to wonder why he's not on anyone's ballot [like mine!].


Bailey Howell I do think fairly highly of, and would have him right in the same vicinity as Jerry Lucas (I had briefly compared the two a couple threads ago). However, that is outside of my top 100 for both [although not far].

Paul Silas I'm generally lower on, and he's not really on my radar at all for this project [would be for top 150].


Re: Webber
I've opted to drop him off my ballot, and replaced him [at 3rd] with LaMarcus Aldridge, who I REALLY think deserves very serious consideration by this point.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#9 » by sansterre » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:39 pm

1. Terry Porter - Porter is a weird mix of peak and longevity. He played 35k minutes, with 13 different seasons posting higher than a +1 OBPM, and 9 different seasons posting higher than a +2 OBPM. And he retained fair value even late in his career, posting back-to-back +4 AuRPM seasons for the Spurs at the turn of the century. He's 55th in offensive win shares all-time, and 45th in VORP all-time. Most metrics really like Porter; he's more than one standard deviation above the mean in both PIPM and VORP, and his win shares and BackPicks ratings are still well above average.

Porter was a weird sort of tweener-guard. He rarely posted higher than league average usage rates, but made up for it with efficiency (consistently scoring in the +4 to +6% range) passing well (assist% in the 25-35% range) and being a fair ballhawk (ten different seasons at 2%+ steals). His seven-year peak:

19.9% Usage, +4.5% rTS, 30.5% Ast, 2.2% Steals, 15.4% TO, +3.3 OBPM, +3.9 BPM

It's good, but not great (though again, it's a strong peak combined with a lot of longevity). But in the playoffs he got better. For his nine-year playoff peak (89-97):

20.2% Usage, +7.3% rTS, 26.1% Ast, 1.6% Steals, 12.2% TO, +4.5 OBPM, +4.8 BPM

So in the playoffs (and in fairness, I'm taking slightly different years), Porter slowed as a distributor and grew into an extremely efficient scorer. A nine-year playoff peak with an OBPM at +4.5? That's pretty nice. I'll give you a hint on this; McHale didn't have a nine-year playoff peak at that level (though select seasons were certainly better).

Regular season Terry Porter? He was a strong player with a decently long career and a good peak. But playoff Terry Porter? Playoff Terry Porter was *really* good. Do you know how many players increase both usage and shooting against playoff defenses? Not a lot of them. But Terry Porter is absolutely on that list.

2. Draymond Green - Draymond is a weird player to evaluate. Normally I'm big on longevity and Draymond is still playing. But his peak (by certain metrics) was crazy. He's an insane ceiling raiser, like Ben Wallace but better. And unlike the Ben Wallace argument "Yeah, but having him kills your offense" you really can't argue that for Draymond. Because he was on a lot of extremely strong offenses. He wasn't a great scorer by a long shot, but he was an outstanding passer. A lot of people don't realize that Draymond often averaged more Assists/100 than Curry did (the two were neck and neck during their peak years). So despite not being a good scorer (and he was okay, averaging around league average shooting on high teens usage) he actually tended toward being a net positive on offense from all the impact data we have. And his ability to play a hyper-aware long-armed center in a lineup of all athletic wings (and Curry) transformed the Warriors. I'm not making any argument that Green is as valuable to the Warriors as Curry was. But his AuRPM numbers actually come out looking really close to Curry, and in 2017 were above Durant in both AuRPM and RAPM.

The Warriors from 2015 to 2018 were four of the best teams ever and every impact metric we have suggests that Draymond was a very close 2nd in value on three of them. Unlike shot-blocking bigs like Embiid and Gobert, Draymond's defensive value tends to go up in the playoffs. Because smart switchability is a serious asset in playoff defense and Draymond has that as well as anyone.

Do I have him too high here? Maybe. His 2016 PIPM kind of broke my metric. But the impact metrics scream that he was one of the most valuable players in the league during his peak.

Was he a crap floor-raiser? Definitely. And if you like floor-raisers or wins-added, then Draymond is probably far lower on your list.

But we have to make our peace with the fact that he may have been one of the greatest ceiling-raisers ever. And there's some serious value there. From a CORP point of view, he has a pretty respectable argument.

#3. Kyle Lowry - This may seem incongruous, but Kyle Lowry has some pretty strong selling points. His career has actually been quietly impressive. He's got four different 10+ Win Share seasons and over 30k career minutes. He's got four seasons above 4.5 VORP. Did you know that of all active NBA players he's currently 11th in Win Shares and VORP? These are respectably impressive stats. But would you believe that Kyle Lowry's impact metrics are outstanding? He put up a +4.5 AuRPM in 2014, a +4.6 AuRPM in 2015, a +6.5 in 2016 (10th in the league) and a +6.3 in 2017 (6th). His RAPM in 2018 (including playoffs) was 6th in the league (ESPN's RPM has him #1), ESPN's RPM has him 5th in 2019 and it has him 6th in 2020. By Impact metrics, Kyle Lowry's been a Top 10 player in the league for the past five years.

How is this possible? After all, Lowry is a good offensive player but not great. He's pretty consistently in the low 20s for usage and his shooting was only around +3 or +4 in his five-year peak. How good can he be? But he's also a weirdly quality rebounder. Kyle Lowry may be the best rebounding six footer ever (not a huge claim to fame, but still). He has eight different seasons at 7% TRB or higher, while no other six footer has more than 4. You could argue that he's a rebound-chaser, but his impact metrics suggest that isn't the case. He's a strong floor spacer (half his shots are threes and he made them at 38% over the last ten seasons) and a strong passer (passer ratings at 6.5 or higher from Ben Taylor). I won't argue that he has the offensive impact of a Lillard (though he surely has more longevity). But unlike Lillard, Lowry is a strong defender, generally considered an underrated team defender with a knack for drawing charges. And if he's an actual plus on defense (as most metrics consider him) that means he doesn't need to be as good on offense for the same level of impact.

Has he struggled in the playoffs historically? Yes. But no more than Lillard has, and Dame has been getting a fair amount of love in these votes. And recently Lowry has turned it around in the postseason, posting the 4th best RAPTOR-WAR in the '19 playoffs (+6.6 average) and 5th best in the '20 playoffs (+9.3).

Like Porter, like a lot of guys I champion, he's not super-sexy. But he's had a long career and a strong peak. Instead of being an all-offense chucker he's good at everything, and was a key piece in leading the Raptors to their first ever NBA title. Maybe he deserves some love too. :)

Terry Porter > D.Green > Kyle Lowry > Eddie Jones > Bellamy > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > D.Issel > LaMarcus Aldridge > Webber > Sikma > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > Lucas > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere > J.Butler > M. Johnson > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#10 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:47 pm

I've been pondering on whether I should put Draymond Green over Connie Hawkins. I'm just not sure how good Connie Hawkins peak really is.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#11 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:07 pm

1. Nikola Jokic - I might be voting for Jokic for a while but I think he deserves to make the list at least. Jokic' case is very similar to Giannis in my opinion. Both have 4 high level years along with 1 other positively contributing year. While both have 4 great regular seasons it is clear Giannis has the edge up till 2020, which is why I have him ahead. The difference in longevity is just Giannis' first two years when he was barely a replacement level player so if you're fine with Giannis being voted in this range, how can you justify not having Jokic not in your top 100 at all? Their play-off resumes are comparable at this point as well. Giannis has 5.8 WS and 3.4 VORP in the post-season so far compared to 5.5 WS and 3.5 VORP for Jokic. Giannis has reached the play-offs more often (5 times) than Jokic (2 times) but both have 3 play-off series wins at this point. While Giannis has played 10 more games than Jokic, the reason why the numbers are still close is that both of Jokic' runs were arguably better than any of Giannis' play-off outings. It's a shame some of the voters don't consider him for the top 100 project at all but at this point of the list we're all simply going to have to accept players will receive votes that others don't have among their next 25 picks at all.

2. Gus Williams - While another voter already has Dennis Johnson on his ballot, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned his teammate on the 79 champion Supersonics yet tbh. Gus Williams was only a 2 time All-Star so I understand he might fly under the radar for some people but this massively undervalues him. His prime quality and duration really isn't much different than Ben Wallace. It maybe shouldn't be a surprise I'm this high on Gus WIlliams because I've consistently put a big emphasis on play-off performance and Gus was a post-season savant who consistently stepped his game up when it counted most. After being the best player for the 78 Sonics that lost game 7 of the finals, he went on to post a 23.8 PER, .210 WS/48 and 6.7 BPM alongside a league leading 2.7 WS and 1.3 VORP on the way to a championship the next year. That isn't the end of Gus Williams being amazing in the play-offs though. In the 1980, 82, 83 and 84 post-seasons he had 20+ PER, .150+ WS/48 and 6+ BPM in every single one of those campaigns.

3.Terry Porter - Like Gus Williams, Terry Porter is only a 2-time All-Star but just like with Gus this underrates Porter's prime significantly. Porter's prime was cut short but he still managed 6 very strong seasons from 87/88 till 92/93. In the play-offs he was always solid but his main case there are 3 very strong consecutive post-seasons in 1990, 91 and 92. He played 58 play-off games over that 3 year stretch and was playing at a high level throughout. I think Gus Williams just has a few more really strong post-seasons but other than that I don't see much seperating them.

Anfernee Hardaway > Draymond Green > Jimmy Butler > James Worthy > Paul George > Dan Issel > Kyle Lowry > Jerry Lucas > Walt Bellamy > Chris Webber > Carmelo Anthony > Maurice Cheeks > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > Bernard King > Bill Walton > Connie Hawkins > Dennis Johnson > Dave DeBusschere > Tiny Archibald
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:26 pm

sansterre wrote:.

Terry Porter > D.Green > Kyle Lowry > Eddie Jones > Bellamy > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > Webber > LaMarcus Aldridge > D.Issel > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > Lucas > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere >J.Butler > M. Johnson > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald


Have a look at Jack Sikma. I’d be curious to see where he falls in this line-up by your criteria.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#13 » by sansterre » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:43 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
sansterre wrote:.

Terry Porter > D.Green > Kyle Lowry > Eddie Jones > Bellamy > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > Webber > LaMarcus Aldridge > D.Issel > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > Lucas > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere >J.Butler > M. Johnson > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald


Have a look at Jack Sikma. I’d be curious to see where he falls in this line-up by your criteria.

A little above the middle of the pack.

His general regular season metrics are pretty solid, but his WOWYR is a little below average and his playoff numbers seem to fall off noticeably.

That said, I need to re-sort my list so thanks for the reminder :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#14 » by trex_8063 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:37 am

Thru post #13:

Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Dan Issel - 1 (trex_8063)
Carmelo Anthony - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Terry Porter - 1 (sansterre)
James Worthy - 1 (penbeast0)
Dave DeBusschere - 1 (Cavsfansince84)


About 24 hours left for this one.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

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Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

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HeartBreakKid wrote:.

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

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Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

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876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#15 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:45 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:I've been pondering on whether I should put Draymond Green over Connie Hawkins. I'm just not sure how good Connie Hawkins peak really is.


One of my biggest issues with Hawkins outside of the very short prime is that a lot of people have trouble judging Dr. J's prime(a lot of which came in the aba where he put up by far his biggest numbers and won two rings) and that was a number of years after the aba had grown in talent. Hawkins peak year was in 1968. So I'm a bit skeptical on the league at that point. I think it was probably a fairly big step down from the nba at that time. I don't doubt that Hawkins could have been a big time star in the nba as well but I have trouble justifying his place in the top100 based largely on that one year in the aba.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:46 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:I've been pondering on whether I should put Draymond Green over Connie Hawkins. I'm just not sure how good Connie Hawkins peak really is.


One of my biggest issues with Hawkins outside of the very short prime is that a lot of people have trouble judging Dr. J's prime(a lot of which came in the aba where he put up by far his biggest numbers and won two rings) and that was a number of years after the aba had grown in talent. Hawkins peak year was in 1968. So I'm a bit skeptical on the league at that point. I think it was probably a fairly big step down from the nba at that time. I don't doubt that Hawkins could have been a big time star in the nba as well but I have trouble justifying his place in the top100 based largely on that one year in the aba.


Although I'm not supporting him.....

He's certainly got more than just the one year. He's got some pretty good years [one All-NBA 1st Team, fwiw] in the NBA, too.

As to the strength of that ABA season, I'm there with you in being skeptical of the '68 ABA. That said, what would you expect a truly great player to do to a weak league? You'd expect him to utterly crush it......exactly like Hawkins did for a year and a half.
That he was clearly a shell of himself when he made his comeback at the end of '69 makes me think what we saw in the NBA in the early 70s was LESS than what he was in '68, too [and remember: he was All-NBA 1st Team in '70].

Those considerations combine to make me think ABA Hawkins was.....pretty damn legit, to put not too fine a point on it.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#17 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:54 am

trex_8063 wrote:
Although I'm not supporting him.....

He's certainly got more than just the one year. He's got some pretty good years [one All-NBA 1st Team, fwiw] in the NBA, too.

As to the strength of that ABA season, I'm there with you in being skeptical of the '68 ABA. That said, what would you expect a truly great player to do to a weak league? You'd expect him to utterly crush it......exactly like Hawkins did for a year and a half.
That he was clearly a shell of himself when he made his comeback at the end of '69 makes me think what we saw in the NBA in the early 70s was LESS than what he was in '68, too [and remember: he was All-NBA 1st Team in '70].

Those considerations combine to make me think ABA Hawkins was.....pretty damn legit, to put not too fine a point on it.


I think it's fair to say he had one really good year in the nba. I think the bulk of the support for him right now comes from the one full year in the aba along with the playoff run. The playoff run was even better than his rs(arguably the best playoff run anyone had in the aba along with Dr. J in 76). So that's why it's a bit of an issue to me. If you took away that one year in the aba I can't imagine that he'd be getting any consideration right now at all.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#18 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:00 am

Repeating vote.

Doctor MJ wrote:Alright...

1. Connie Hawkins
2. Bill Walton
3. Nikola Jokic

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:
Nikola Jokic
Billy Cunningham
Tiny Archibald
James Worthy
Dave DeBusschere
Horace Grant
Dennis Johnson
Terry Porter
Jeff Hornacek
Jerry Lucas
Dan Issel
Walt Bellamy
Gus Williams
Carmelo Anthony


Hawk love letter:

I think there's never been anyone like him, before or since. I'm dying to see more footage of him, because honestly I think he's got a bunch of moves that we don't have names for.

The roots of Hawkins becoming what he became are a story not of some kind of inevitable success through sheer talent, but of a guy with great talent getting bounced around and picking up stuff as he went.

Hawkins was a star in each of the following places:
1. The Schoolyard
2. Golden Age NYC High School Basketball
3. ABL
4. Harlem Globetrotters
5. ABA
6. NBA

All 6 of these things are a big deal, though I'll note that I'd consider (1) and (4) the best for understanding how Hawkins became what he became where (5) and (6) represent the proof in the pudding.

To speak on (1), the thing to understand is that play in the school yard all day is what the "good" Black boys did in this era. You were either playing basketball, or you were getting involved in gangs, pimping, and eventually drugs. So if you had basketball talent, this is where your family wanted you. Stay on the court, where it's safe.

And from the perspective of these Black kids, when they played (white) kids from other places, they just always got the sense that those white kids were far less experienced, because they were doing a lot of things other than playing basketball.

So, while Hawkins was dominating the incredibly high quality ball of NYC back then too, the Schoolyard was always where he developed his game. Just trying different things.

Others noted that while Hawkins lacked confidence in general, and was a poor reader and a poor student, he was an extremely quick learner when he saw someone else do something on the basketball court. When an opponent did something with the ball against Hawkins, Hawkins seemed to instantly have a new tool.

It's also important to note that in the Schoolyard, Hawkins didn't start out as The Man. He learned to play by fitting in around others who were older and better. We're talking about a kid who was playing against NBA pros (in the NBA off-season) before he was a High School star, so when he was playing those games, he wasn't just going in as the star. He learned to fit in. He learned how to be an aware passer before he learned to be a scorer.

About (3), so as many of you know, Hawkins was banned from college due to point shaving scandal (he later won a lawsuit clearing his name), so he ended up getting an opportunity in Abe Saperstein's ABL, which had various former NBA pros and a 3-point line. In the lone full season of that league, Hawkins would win MVP.

This is obviously impressive for a guy basically straight out of high school - and speaks both to his talent and how much experience he'd already had beyond just playing against other high schoolers - but I'd also argue that if not for the existence of the ABL, there's a good chance Hawkins would have died on the vine. He didn't have any other great skills other than basketball, so most likely he'd have ended up like many of his other peers still in Brooklyn which was being taken over by a see of heroin.

But his performance in the ABL, led to an invitation to join Saperstein's flagship product: The Harlem Globetrotters.

And as fortune would have it, Sweetwater Clifton - former New York Ren, Globetrotters, NBA all-star - played in the ABL that year with Hawkins, and re-joined the Globetrotters at the same time as Hawkins. And he told Hawkins basically, "You don't realize what kind of things you can do with those big hands!"

He mentored Hawkins on the ways you can use your ability to easily palm a hand. More flexibility when driving, more ways to protect the ball when you're guarded, myriad tricky passes, and the ability to rebound with just one hand so you can use your other arm (ahem, elbow) to fend of opponents.

I've noted before that big hands seem to be a Harlem Globetrotter thing. Beginning with the team's first clown - Goose Tatum - along through Clifton, Meadowlark Lemon, along with Wilt Chamberlain, Hawkins, and others - the Globetrotters seemed to look for guys with big hands in a way that the NBA has literally never done. I've also seen it noted that a particular Globetrotter was held back by his hand size despite being naturally very comedic.

There's a kind of trickery you can do with hands like this that lends itself well to comedy through basketball actions, and this raises the question of whether these Globetrotters were much better at certain basketball skills than NBA players.

There the answer is yes with an asterisk. Most of the tricks the Globetrotters did, while they required great skill, were not designed to hold up against actual defenders, and this was a source of frustration for Hawkins who felt that he was becoming soft due to not playing in a real competitive league, which I'd say was true.

At the same time, he'd still go back to NYC and play in the Schoolyard testing out techniques. Basically, he mined stuff out from the Globetrotters, and the stuff he found could work against actual defenders, he made a part of his repertoire. And this is how he became truly unique.

As we look at Hawkins ABA & NBA years, one of the things to understand is that both when he joined Pittsburgh in the ABA and Phoenix in the NBA, the teams did not immediately re-shape their offenses around Hawkins, and between these ramp up times, Hawkins increasing tendency toward injury, and a tendency for Hawkins to get down on himself, when we look at his yearly stats, it has to be noted that there was far more variance over the course of the season in team and Hawkins-specific performance than you'd expect not simply as a modern observer, but as a contemporary observer. Hawkins wasn't the absolute rock that you'd expect from a Jerry West, and this certainly doesn't help his Top 100 case.

But what this context also means is that when you look at Hawkins' yearly stats those first few years, as impressive as they look, know that they underrate what he was doing at his best.

I've noted before that in his first year in the ABA, Hawkins led the league in PPG despite being 3rd on his team in FGA. He did this by also leading the league in TS%, and do so while also leading the team in APG, RPG, and almost certainly BPG & SPM had they had that data (but interestingly he did not lead his team in TOs, and was 11th on his team in terms of TOs per minute). To lead a team to the title like this is amazing, but it does give rise to the question: Why were other guys shooting more than Hawkins?

The answer seems to be that these guys were just flat out bad chuckers who the coach couldn't get to pass the ball even though he'd sometimes bench them just to ensure the ball went to Hawkins, but apparently the team couldn't get anyone better mid-season (neither would last that much longer in the ABA).

Now, I tend to read stuff that focuses on Hawkins' perspective rather than the perspective Chico Vaughn, so bias is a concern. But my conclusion is that even in a young ABA that wasn't what it would later become, the Pittsburgh Pipers had no business winning a title given the lack of team play. But what was the case is that when Hawkins played the pivot, the offense hummed with Hawkins both scoring incredibly well and passing incredibly well.

Hawkins suffered the defining injury of his career midway through his second ABA season, and most don't think he was ever as good again, yet still he ended up blowing away the NBA once he got going.

What precipitated him getting going? Mid-way through the season, Phoenix Suns GM Jerry Colangelo fired coach Red Kerr, took over as coach, and had the team play with Hawkins in the high post as the guy the offense would run through. Prior to that point, Hawkins had been positioned in the corner while team captain Gail Goodrich dribbled, dribbled, dribble, and then shot. Goodrich, it should be noted seems to have had a good attitude and was willing to play in an offense with Hawkins as the focus, but when left to his own devices, he tended to just iso.

A few more anecdotes in Hawkins first year in the NBA:

1. After the Suns beat the Celtics in Boston, Bill Russell - who had retired the previous year - came over and gushed "You can do things with the ball I've never seen before!". (Hawkins responded "If you'd have been out there, you'd have blocked half my shots". Russell then said "I don't think so".)

2. Hawkins drew rave reviews as the best passer in the league. Was he better than Oscar? I'm not prepared to say that, but what I can say is that Hawkins was doing things Oscar could not. One described play involved Hawkins having the ball in the high post and making two quick passing fakes in opposite directions (which he could do because had had the ball palmed), and then casually dribbling through the now open lane to the basket.

3. Another anecdote: Apparently Hawkins could dribble through press defense unaided. When a team pressed the Suns, they'd pass the ball to Hawkins, and get out of the way, while he dribbled his way through opponents. If this seems unrealistic for a player generally, I'd note that this skill was a major thing before the shot clock, and the team most famous for this ability was the Globetrotters back in their still-competitive days in the '40s. Against the Mikan-led Lakers, the Globetrotters famously gave the ball to master-dribbler Marques Haynes, and he dribbled what remained of the 4th quarter away so that his team could take the last shot.

While the shot clock rendered this specific ability moot, the Globetrotters used it as part of their act, and so this was something the Globetrotter players actually practiced, and Hawkins honed the ability there.

So I'd say the most amazing thing isn't that someone could do this, but that Hawkins at 6'8" could do this.

4. I'd note that Wilt said that Hawkins was the only guy in the world who could play "all three positions" - by which he meant guard, forward, and center.

I should also note that Hawkins's quickness and agility was tied to his lithe fame, so when Hawkins played center, he took a severe beating that made it hard for him to sustain that kind of play over a season.

I'll also note that Hawkins was a guy who got very little training in formal defense. With his long arms and quickness he could get blocks and steals, but he struggled beyond that.

5. Some people hated his "clown antics". Some refs in particular. I think this makes sense because the Globetrotters - while they may be clowns - spend their games making their opponents look like fools. What happens when you do that to someone who isn't paid to take it? Animosity.

6. Among players, Elvin Hayes in particular apparently expressed hostility toward Hawkins, and this led to a showdown in the very last game of the '69-70 season which Hawkin's Suns needed to make the playoffs. The Suns were down 19 points at half time, and in the second half Hawkins & Hayes matched up. Hawkins led the team back to a victory with a 44/20/8 night on 30 FGA, and was said to have had 5 blocks & 5 steals in the 3rd quarter alone. Multiple of those blocks came on Hayes who went for 23/18/2 on 25 FGA.

7. In the playoffs, the Suns would fight hard before losing in 7 to the West/Wilt led Lakers, with some making the comment that it was essentially "the Lakers vs Connie Hawkins".

After that year, Hawkins would still have great runs, but injuries took more of a toll. The general feeling was that his body was much older than his age suggested having played 250 Globetrotter games per year while others his age were playing 25 college games per year, to say nothing about all that time on the Schoolyard.

In the end, with Hawkins, I think it's very hard to know how to rank him and so I completely understand those who won't have him in the Top 100. More than anything else, I hope others can just appreciate how singular he was, and how significant on a level beyond simple career impact.

But I do think he warrants a place above Bill Walton, who is my #3 pick here. Love, love, love Walton, but as much as Hawkins had longevity issues, I'd say Walton had them worse, and I'm not comfortable saying that Walton was clearly the better player best vs best. I think Walton was amazing like this, and he certainly has the defensive edge overall, but in some ways I feel like you could look at Walton on offense as a poor man's Hawkins.

Part of what I'm saying here is that I believe that the pivot-and-cut offense that Jack Ramsay instituted for Walton in Portland is not some completely new thing, but rather something that was huge and never really made it to the NBA. Once the basketball world saw Mikan & Kurland, pivot-and-cut passing didn't seem as useful as just pass to low post and score. And when that paradigm got challenged, it got challenged by perimeter-oriented offenses that in today's game are dominant.

I would submit that we've never really seen the potential for a pivot-and-cut offense in the modern NBA until Nikola Jokic, and I might make a comparison between Jokic & Hawkins. And on that front, note that I have Jokic below Walton. Through the end of last season, I didn't think Jokic had done enough to surpass Walton, but with this season, well, things are changing.

I will note, with regards to context, I consider Jokic to be more of "random genius" than Hawkins. I think Hawkins became what he did because he was shaped by unique context and had specific, rare physical gifts. Jokic seems like he was born like this.

Alright, beyond Hawk I've got Walton & Jokic on my ballot.

So first, what that means is that I'm clearly right now siding on peak/prime over longevity relative to some other folks. As I always say, I'm not going to tell you that your longevity weighting is wrong - I think that's up to personal philosophy.

I will say on Walton I've had him all over my ballots through the years and really don't know where to put him...but I do think that he deserves to be higher than Jokic through '19-20. I understand that you can argue that Jokic should win based on a longevity edge, but Jokic is obviously weak there as well, and Walton being a key part of a championship team 7 years after the first really cements that indelible impression I have of him.

If you just think Jokic through last year was better than Walton, I get that, but I'd not feel comfortable saying that because Walton was the best defender on the planet.

On Jokic over other guys, the first guy I want to mention is someone I've not even been listing out because he hasn't had traction: Draymond Green. When I look at current players not in, those two are the next ones on my list and to be honest I expected to have Green ahead of Jokic.

If I felt strongly about Green over Jokic, I'd be arguing for that now, but I'm not. I can see arguments both ways, but Green really doesn't have much of a longevity edge, and as special as Green was at his best, I do think Jokic was more special by a smidge even before this year.

Next guy: Billy Cunningham. I think Cunningham is a strong candidate, but I definitely see him as less indelible than Hawk or Walton.

Looks like Horace Grant is getting a lot of momentum, and he's another guy I love so I'm not looking to argue against really, but clearly his argument over these other guys is longevity, and I struggle to talk about Grant as a big longevity guy.

On Tiny Archibald - I'm really convinced at this point that he was an absolute killer at his best. He feels like he should be easily a Top 100 guy for me, and I rank him above some guys already on the list, but obviously there are still guys left out there that I like even better.

On James Worthy - I don't really feel like I have a precise compelling case for Worthy, but I don't think we should forget about him. I see him as a guy who proved himself to be versatile while still capable of being a good alpha when needed.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#19 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:13 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Although I'm not supporting him.....

He's certainly got more than just the one year. He's got some pretty good years [one All-NBA 1st Team, fwiw] in the NBA, too.

As to the strength of that ABA season, I'm there with you in being skeptical of the '68 ABA. That said, what would you expect a truly great player to do to a weak league? You'd expect him to utterly crush it......exactly like Hawkins did for a year and a half.
That he was clearly a shell of himself when he made his comeback at the end of '69 makes me think what we saw in the NBA in the early 70s was LESS than what he was in '68, too [and remember: he was All-NBA 1st Team in '70].

Those considerations combine to make me think ABA Hawkins was.....pretty damn legit, to put not too fine a point on it.


I think it's fair to say he had one really good year in the nba. I think the bulk of the support for him right now comes from the one full year in the aba along with the playoff run. The playoff run was even better than his rs(arguably the best playoff run anyone had in the aba along with Dr. J in 76). So that's why it's a bit of an issue to me. If you took away that one year in the aba I can't imagine that he'd be getting any consideration right now at all.


So if you took away Player X's best year, people would rank him a lot lower? Shocking! :)

I do understand though why Hawkins longevity issues are really hurting his candidacy for you, and I don't want to come off like I'm denying that Hawkins' ABA/NBA career was short.

The one thing I can muster is this:

Hawkins has a career 76.7 Win Shares.

There are already several guys on this list below that.

So for anyone who supported any of those guys - or who aren't immediately sure if they did - I do think it's important to make sure you're not categorizing Hawkins' longevity as even shorter than it is.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #90 

Post#20 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:24 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
So if you took away Player X's best year, people would rank him a lot lower? Shocking! :)

I do understand though why Hawkins longevity issues are really hurting his candidacy for you, and I don't want to come off like I'm denying that Hawkins' ABA/NBA career was short.

The one thing I can muster is this:

Hawkins has a career 76.7 Win Shares.

There are already several guys on this list below that.

So for anyone who supported any of those guys - or who aren't immediately sure if they did - I do think it's important to make sure you're not categorizing Hawkins' longevity as even shorter than it is.


Just to be clear, its not even that his prime is short but also the overall context is that the aba was probably at its weakest at that point. So its both things that we were talking about. It's just a shame that injuries cut so many guys' careers short or derailed their primes.

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