RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 (Cliff Hagan)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 (Cliff Hagan) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu May 6, 2021 1:20 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. Shawn Marion
79. Dennis Rodman
80. Larry Nance
81. Ben Wallace
82. Hal Greer
83. Grant Hill
84. Sidney Moncrief
85. Damian Lillard
86. Chris Bosh
87. Horace Grant
88. Jeff Hornacek
89. Billy Cunningham
90. Dan Issel
91. James Worthy
92. Carmelo Anthony
93. Terry Porter
94. ??

Target stop-time around 9pm EST on Friday.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#2 » by penbeast0 » Thu May 6, 2021 1:40 am


1. Jack Sikma -- just the kind of guy who you can fit on any squad and creates wins. Not great but very good
2. Bob Dandridge -- similarly, a versatile very good 3rd option who could score if needed, play good defense and swing to the 4 (Milwaukee) or 2 (Washington).
3. Draymond Green -- maybe he has been in the prefect situation, maybe he's really that impactful, but you can't choose your situation, just make the best of what you are presented with and he definitely has done that. Sort of this generation's Dennis Rodman.


4. Webber
(Cliff Hagan) -- stepped up consistently in playoffs
5. Bellamy
(Zelmo Beaty)
6. DJ
7. Mookie
(Maurice Cheeks)
8. Connie Hawkins
(Chris Mullin) -- Smart, good outside shooter, slow footed defender
(LaMarcus Aldridge) -- 2-way consistency over a long prime
9. EltonBrand
(Marques Johnson) -- peaked higher than King, shorter career, substance abuse issues
(Bernard King) -- a couple of great playoff performances, reasonably efficient scorer but brings little else and had substance abuse issues.
(Tiny Archibald) -- Amazing for a couple of years on Kings, like Isiaih Thomas that year in Boston, but with his lack of defense and the way his scoring game worked, can't really see him as a key ceiling raiser piece.
(Dave DeBusschere) -- excellent defender, not a long career, poor shooter relative to league
10. Walton
11. Jokic
12. Gus Williams
(David Thompson) -- Another skywalker, great scorer, but career destroyed by cocaine

Guys in parentheses are mentioned in other posts and I've tried to slot them in but haven't done the analysis to back it up yet.


GUARDS/WINGS
Terry Porter, Dennis Johnson, Gus Williams, Mookie Blaylock, Bobby Dandridge

Terry Porter is the most efficient shooter, Dandridge next, with the other three down below league average during their 5 year primes. DJ has the big rep, both on defense and in awards, Mookie also had a great defensive rep and was ahead of his time shooting low percentage from 2 but a lot of 3's, Dandridge is another very good defender, Porter and Gus Williams also solid. Porter, Blaylock, and Gus Williams generated assists like point guards, DJ and Dandridge like wings.

I rate them:
1. Dandridge -- do everything guy who stepped up in the playoffs. Whined his way out of Milwaukee but otherwise good teammate rep. Longer prime than Porter.
2. Porter -- Had a shorter prime than I remembered, most efficient scorer, very good player.
3a. DJ -- tempted to go Mookie here but DJ's versatility on the defensive end (and face it, if they are getting any traction it's on their defense) give him the edge despite Mookie's playmaking and range (tempted AGAIN to switch this!)
3b. Blaylock -- spread the floor and played great defense, very modern player. Got assists but not a great creator, scored nearly as much as DJ but no more efficient despite his 3 point range.
5. Gus Williams -- poor efficiency hurts the guy whose game was most built around volume scoring the most.

BIG MEN
Walt Bellamy was a true 1960 (and 70s) center. Good scorer, not a particularly good defender or passer, had a MONSTER rookie year on a super weak expansion team (in the league's most inflated year) then declined from that point on. A rep as being annoying in the locker room and showing up overweight. By the numbers, he's clearly the choice.

Sikma, Webber, Brand all F/C types. Webber and Brand also decent rim protectors though overall Sikma had the only All-Defense award. Sikma and Webber good (some say great) big man passers. Efficiency, Brand was decent, Sikma average, Webber below average; Webber the volume scorer, then Brand and Sikma.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#3 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu May 6, 2021 2:17 am

Vote 1 - Bernard King
Vote 2 - Chris Webber
Vote 3 - Tiny Archibald

DeBusschere > Bellamy > Beaty > Jerry Lucas > Hagan > Dandridge > Aldridge > Lowry > Gus Williams > Sikma > Dennis Johnson > Hawkins > Johnston > Draymond > Jokic > Walton


At his peak, king was one of the most dynamic scorers the league had seen. He was more methodical than flashy, but he knew what he was good at and kept going to it. His turnaround jumper was so lethal that he didn't even have to look at the hoop when releasing the shot. It was all in 1 quick motion where the defender really had no chance to block it. He was also very bull-like in the open court. Not a high leaper, but extremely powerful with long strides getting to the rim.

From 79-85 he put up the following:

Regular Season
23.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, .3 BPG, 55.1% FG, 70.1% FT, 58.7% TS, .153 WS/48, 111 ORtg

Playoffs
30.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1 SPG, .3 BPG, 56.8% FG, 72% FT, 60.9% TS, .213 WS/48, 122 ORtg

His prime was obviously cut short by injuries, but he still put together 11 seasons of solid production when it was all said and done. When he tore his ACL, his career was largely thought to be over given the era he played in. He went on to make an improbable comeback which culminated with him getting back to All NBA status in 90-91 with the bullets. I've alluded to this with other players in the project, but the amount of determination it takes to come back from major injuries and still perform at a high level is really impressive.

[As an aside, the Knicks stupidly released him because he wanted to do his rehab on his own instead of at the knicks training facility. Always would've loved to see even a lesser version of King get to play with Ewing. Could've been a great match.]

He was probably best known for his 1st round game 5 clincher against the pistons in 84:

In a critical and decisive Game 5, Bernard King was his usual unstoppable self putting up 40 points as the Knicks held a double-digit lead with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Then Thomas decided to take things into his own hands by putting on a performance of epic proportions, tallying 16 points within the game’s final 94 seconds, to force overtime. King and Thomas exchanged offensive blows like a heavyweight title fight, with King getting the final blow by jamming an offensive put-back in the games final moments, giving him a game high 46 points and the Knicks a 3-2 series win. King showed a national audience that he would become one of the game’s most prolific scoring machines before injuries robbed him of his explosiveness. Game 5 was also arguably the moment that put a young “Zeke” on par with the NBA’s elite.



http://www.theshadowleague.com/articles/the-epic-battle-of-bernard-king-vs-isiah-thomas

Notice the splints on both of King's hands...



The Knicks would go on to lose to the eventual NBA champion celtics in 7 games, as he played through injuries and still averaged 29.1 PPG on 59.7% TS in the series. The guy was just relentless.

"The key was his preparation," said former Knicks coach and ESPN analyst Hubie Brown.

Part of that preparation included practicing thousands of shots from what King called his "sweet spots." In the half court, he identified three points along the baseline out to the sideline, then extended an imaginary line from a halfway point up the lane to the sideline with three more, then three more extended from the foul line to the sideline. He did the same on the other side of the lane.

Within the lane he identified four spots from the rim to the top of the key. These 22 spots, all within 18 feet of the basket, created a matrix of areas from which he felt supremely confident he could score. If a team tried to deny him the ball on offense, he would move from one sweet spot to another.

"He had the ability to see what all five positions were doing. That's how he could handle double- and triple-teams, because he knew where everyone would be," Brown said. "He knew how to create space for the high-percentage shot or find the guy who was open."


http://espn.go.com/nba/halloffame13/story/_/id/9653879/bernard-king-ahead
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#4 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu May 6, 2021 5:06 am

Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health of their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Draymond Green. After pondering it for a few threads I decided to place Green over Hawkins. I might go back on this. I think Green's defense is as valuable as many players volume scoring. He has an interesting quirk where he can raise his level of defense in the post season, a unique type of resilience. He also has the playmaking ability of a point guard, he's not just a guy who feast in huge open space making simple kicks to 3 point shooters. Green has learned how to read the defense, and is excellent at making quick decisions and not all the passes he makes are easy.









Beaty > Hawkins > G Williams > King > Webber > Dennis Johnson > Lowry > Sikma > Archibald > Aldridge > Lucas > Bellamy > Johnston > DeBusschere > Dandridge
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#5 » by ZeppelinPage » Thu May 6, 2021 6:58 am

1. Cliff Hagan
All around fantastic player. Could drive, shoot, rebound, pass--had great success leading Kentucky and it carried over into the NBA. In his 2nd year he dominated the Pistons and Celtics en route to his first and only championship. His .312 playoff run in '58 is the 10th greatest of all-time by WS/48 (also has the 16th greatest in '59). His scoring ability was helpful in taking pressure off Pettit and the rest of the team, leading to a 1st ranked Hawks offense in '59. A plus efficiency player throughout basically his entire career (108 TS+) and usually among the top 20 in TRB at 6'4". All these abilities coupled with his high volume make him the top choice or me. Only knock would be his shorter career.

2. Tom Heinsohn
Biggest strengths are his defense, rebounding, and gravity. Defensively, Heinsohn was among the very best of the Celtics. In Auerbach's book Basketball for The Player, The Fan, And The Coach--he lists Heinsohn as one of the great defensive cornermen, and for good reason. On top of being a relentless rebounder, he was a total ball hawk that would seek out steals and actively use his hands to deflect the ball. He could switch 1 through 4 and play tough man-to-man defense, often contesting shots and getting blocks on players like Jerry West. He didn't have all-time efficiency, but his high volume and tough shot making allowed for floor spacing that was beneficial to his teammates. Heinsohn shot a significant amount of jump shots that were difficult and this hurt his efficiency, with that being said he was also a threat to the defense as he could score when left open. With Russell on the Celtics, there was less spacing and more emphasis on making jump shots. The bulk of the jump shooting was often left to guys like Cousy, Sharman, Havlicek, Heinsohn, and Sam Jones. Sharman and Jones were plus with their shooting ability, but the rest of the main offensive options suffered efficiency wise due to being the only ones that could take and make these difficult shots. With less spacing, it was harder to drive to the hoop as well as get to the line. Heinsohn could score when needed, having multiple playoff runs that were significant to their championships, and arguably should have won 2 Finals MVPs. Overall, I think he was a pretty well-rounded player. I value his ability to be a threat on top of the defense he brings--he could even set up his teammates with good passes.

3. Frank Ramsey
Led the league in WS/48 during the regular season ('58) and playoffs ('57, '59) on ridiculous shooting percentages (+10 relTS% on 17.5 FGA in '59 playoffs, are you kidding me?) As the 6th man, he didn't have the highest volume, but he was still incredibly efficient whether he was in a smaller role or needed to take more shots come playoff time. Defensively, Ramsey was fantastic--lightning quick, playing passing lanes, deflecting and swiping at the ball, and staying with his man off-ball. In the G6 '63 Finals footage, Ramsey has 2 steals and multiple deflections, all while giving up zero baskets man to man. I think his clutch play, efficient scoring, and defensive ability all more than make up for his lack of volume. Definitely one of the greatest 6th men of all-time.

Jokic > Walton > D Green > Webber > DeBusschere > Lowry > Lucas > Johnston > Bellamy > Beaty > King > Sikma > Dandridge > G Williams > Archibald > Dennis Johnson > Aldridge > Hawkins
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#6 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu May 6, 2021 8:49 am

Edited in Ramsey, Hagan and Heinsohn
HeartBreakKid wrote:Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health of their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Draymond Green. After pondering it for a few threads I decided to place Green over Hawkins. I might go back on this. I think Green's defense is as valuable as many players volume scoring. He has an interesting quirk where he can raise his level of defense in the post season, a unique type of resilience. He also has the playmaking ability of a point guard, he's not just a guy who feast in huge open space making simple kicks to 3 point shooters. Green has learned how to read the defense, and is excellent at making quick decisions and not all the passes he makes are easy.









Beaty > Hawkins > G Williams > King > Webber > Dennis Johnson > Lowry > Sikma > Archibald > Aldridge > Lucas > Bellamy > Johnston > DeBusschere > Dandridge


1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.

3) Cliff Hagan - His playoff dominance almost makes him a sleeper superstar ala Manu. Basically, when you need it he'll come out gunning with the best of them. It's hard for me to take most of the other players left because Cliff is such a ceiling raiser. 1958 is one of the all time great playoff runs.









Green >Beaty > Hawkins > G Williams > King > Webber > Dennis Johnson >Ramsey> Lowry > Sikma > Archibald > Aldridge > Lucas > Heinsohn > Bellamy > Johnston > DeBusschere > Dandridge
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#7 » by Dutchball97 » Thu May 6, 2021 10:23 am

1. Nikola Jokic - I might be voting for Jokic for a while but I think he deserves to make the list at least. Jokic' case is very similar to Giannis in my opinion. Both have 4 high level years along with 1 other positively contributing year. While both have 4 great regular seasons it is clear Giannis has the edge up till 2020, which is why I have him ahead. The difference in longevity is just Giannis' first two years when he was barely a replacement level player so if you're fine with Giannis being voted in this range, how can you justify not having Jokic not in your top 100 at all? Their play-off resumes are comparable at this point as well. Giannis has 5.8 WS and 3.4 VORP in the post-season so far compared to 5.5 WS and 3.5 VORP for Jokic. Giannis has reached the play-offs more often (5 times) than Jokic (2 times) but both have 3 play-off series wins at this point. While Giannis has played 10 more games than Jokic, the reason why the numbers are still close is that both of Jokic' runs were arguably better than any of Giannis' play-off outings. It's a shame some of the voters don't consider him for the top 100 project at all but at this point of the list we're all simply going to have to accept players will receive votes that others don't have among their next 25 picks at all.

2. Gus Williams - While another voter already has Dennis Johnson on his ballot, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned his teammate on the 79 champion Supersonics yet tbh. Gus Williams was only a 2 time All-Star so I understand he might fly under the radar for some people but this massively undervalues him. His prime quality and duration really isn't much different than Ben Wallace. It maybe shouldn't be a surprise I'm this high on Gus WIlliams because I've consistently put a big emphasis on play-off performance and Gus was a post-season savant who consistently stepped his game up when it counted most. After being the best player for the 78 Sonics that lost game 7 of the finals, he went on to post a 23.8 PER, .210 WS/48 and 6.7 BPM alongside a league leading 2.7 WS and 1.3 VORP on the way to a championship the next year. That isn't the end of Gus Williams being amazing in the play-offs though. In the 1980, 82, 83 and 84 post-seasons he had 20+ PER, .150+ WS/48 and 6+ BPM in every single one of those campaigns.

3. Draymond Green - Looking at just his regular season numbers I'd expect to see him near the bottom of my list but the part he played in the Warriors dynasty is severely underrated. Dray has been both the primary playmaker and the defensive anchor for the Warriors for a long time now. Where Draymond really shines is the play-offs though. I'm not sure if anyone is aware but in his 7 post-seasons Dray has never had a DBPM below 3. DBPM isn't a perfect stat but it generally gives a decent indication of a player's defense and Dray has been elite in it every single year. Draymond was a massive part of getting the Warriors to 5 straight finals, accumulating 2+ WS and 1+ VORP in all of those campaigns.

Anfernee Hardaway > Jimmy Butler > Cliff Hagan > Zelmo Beaty > Paul George > Kyle Lowry > Marques Johnson > Jerry Lucas > Neil Johnston > Walt Bellamy > Chris Webber > Bill Sharman > Bob Dandridge > Maurice Cheeks > Jack Sikma > Frank Ramsey > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > LaMarcus Aldridge > Bernard King > Bill Walton > Connie Hawkins > Dennis Johnson > Tom Heinsohn > Dave DeBusschere > Tiny Archibald
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#8 » by Hal14 » Thu May 6, 2021 1:41 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Dennis Johnson
2. Tiny Archibald
3. Walt Bellamy

Johnson was Finals MVP in 79. The dude was an animal. Flying around the court like a bat outta hell, some of the best defense a guard has ever played. Going all out, hustling, taking it strong to the rim.

Next, let's look at 84. 83-84 was his first year on the Celtics. The year before that in 83 the Celtics got swept in the 2nd round by the Bucks. Yes, KC Jones taking over as coach was a factor as well, but the Celtics adding Johnson was a HUGE reason why they went from being swept in the 2nd round in 83 to NBA world champs beating the Lakers in the finals the very next year in 84 (with Magic and Kareem in their prime).

In both 84 and 86 Johnson was one of the team's top 4 players, came through in the clutch time and time again and Bird is on record saying that Johnson was the best teammate he ever played with (meaning Bird thinks Johnson was better than Parish and Mchale).

https://www.sportscasting.com/larry-bird-reveals-the-best-player-hes-ever-played-with/

Johnson was one of the best defensive guards of all time, easily one of the top 10 defensive guards ever. The guy had very good size and strength at the PG position which made him a tough matchup, early in his career had great explosiveness and athleticism, he could score inside, drive to the basket and as his career went on developed a deadly outside shot - especially in the mid range area, not as much from 3 because at the time 3's weren't being taken very much across the league (early in his career there was no 3 point line), plus he could rebound well, unselfishly looked to get the ball to his teammates but would make you pay dearly if you ignored him too much on offense, plus of course his outstanding defense.

Solid longevity, played 14 seasons (13 of which he played 27+ mins a game and all of them he played in 70+ games) which was solid for that era, especially considering he played in a ton (180 to be exact) of playoff games.

How about durability? The guy always played, he was always in the lineup. Out of his 14 seasons:
-he played 72+ games in 14/14 (100%)
-he played in 77+ games in 12/14 seasons (86%)
-he played in 80+ games in 7/14 seasons (50%)

How about Rasheed's durability?
-he played 72+ games in 14/16 (63%)
-he played in 77+ games in 8/16 seasons (50%)
-he played in 80+ games in 10/16 seasons (13%)

Here's a glimpse into how good Johnson was on defense:


Johnson was as good defensively as any guard to ever play. Only guards I might put over him on D are Jordan, Payton and maybe Frazier.

How clutch was Johnson? Take a look at this huge shot to beat the Lakers in the finals:


Want more clutch plays? Larry Bird made a great steal, but it wouldn't have mattered, the Celtics would have still lost that game (and the series) if Johnson didn't race in towards the basket, catch the ball in traffic and finish over a defender:


Johnson blocked 7 shots in a single NBA finals game (1978)

Johnson won NBA finals MVP (1979)

Johnson hit the first game winning 3-pointer in NBA playoff history (1980)



Celtics got swept in the 2nd round by the Bucks. Then they add DJ to the team and beat the Lakers (with prime Magic and prime Kareem) in the NBA finals in 1984.

If you want a guys who put up some nice advanced stats in an era where advanced stats didn't even exist yet, sure go ahead and vote for Hornacek. But if you want to win, then DJ is your guy.

Dennis Johnson is considered by many to be one of the most underrated players of all time:



https://aminoapps.com/c/hoops/page/blog/most-underrated-nba-player-of-all-time-dennis-johnson/pXNH_Qun5plrpdaKeJJ7JElNaBb8Qez#:~:text=Johnson%20(R.I.P.)%20is%20NBA's%20all,the%20most%20underrated%20player%20ever.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/3584-the-most-underrated-players-in-nba-history

https://www.celticsblog.com/2014/10/20/7012785/celtic-great-dennis-johnson-clutch-underrated

http://loganssportsratings.blogspot.com/2016/08/top-100-nba-players-45-dennis-johnson.html

Tiny is a 6 time all-star, 3x all NBA 1st team, 2x all NBA 2nd team. You want peak? Only player ever to lead the NBA in both scoring and assists in the same season. And he was a key piece on the 1981 NBA championship-winning Celtics. Solid defender. Very few point guards in the history of the game possessed his combination of scoring and distributing. And he did it in an era before it was easier for point guards to dominate the league (like it's been since 2005). He'd be even higher up this list if not for injuries, but still had 13 seasons which is pretty good longevity, especially for that era.

Bellamy was a dominant center who could do it all - hit shots, score with power inside, rebound, defend, run the floor. Good combination of size, strength and skill. Sure, his ability diminished in his later years, but that's why he's not a top 50 player. If you just look at top 1 or 2 years for peak, there are very few centers who can match Bellamy. It's about time he gets voted in:

1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Thu May 6, 2021 2:00 pm

A new candidate has appeared out of the blue [Cliff Hagan], and should be added to everyone's listing for Condorcet purposes, if he's not already in there.
At a minimum, the TEN players I would advise including in your ordered list are: Cliff Hagan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jack Sikma, Dennis Johnson, Bill Walton, Nikola Jokic, Connie Hawkins, Dave DeBusschere, Gus Williams, and Bernard King.
If you wanna go a little further [your listing can't be too long; but it can be too short], including names like Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Tiny Archibald, Zelmo Beaty, Bob Dandridge, and Walt Bellamy may be a good idea, too.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Thu May 6, 2021 10:12 pm

1st vote: LaMarcus Aldridge
This was almost a coin-flip between him and Webber.
I don't think he peaked quite as high (peaking at probably a weak All-NBA 2nd Team level), but he was just so solidly consistent for about 11 straight years. It's left him in fairly high standing in various counting and cumulative metrics, but he also has a handful on years rating out in the top 12-15 of the league in terms of impact (see below).

Where some people try to label LMA as a low-efficiency volume scorer, I'd advise looking to his turnover economy, which is arguably GOAT [like for real: GOAT] among big-men. So his all-around offensive efficiency should be viewed in light of that.

He always struck me as reasonably solid defensively through his prime [above neutral at his worst].

And where some try to label him "empty stats", I'd note that is simply NOT reflected in the actual impact metrics. For instance, I'd note he has NINE seasons >+2 RAPM, and EIGHT above +3.
Below is his league rank in combined PI RAPM by year:
'09: 16th
'10: tied for 18th
'11: 21st
'12 (NPI): tied for 31st
'13: tied for 15th (with All-NBA 1st teamer Tim Duncan)
'14 (NPI): tied for 15th
'15: 25th
'16: 22nd
'17: notable dip (still positive, but no where near top of the league)
'18 (NPI, rs-only): 12th

So that's a solid decade where his impact metrics would fairly consistently posit him as a fringe All-Star at worst (and All-NBA 2nd/3rd team level at best), especially considering he played anywhere from 30.6 to 39.6 mpg [avg of 35.7 mpg] over this decade while missing relatively few games.



2nd vote: Chris Webber
Short(ish) prime, and certainly under-achieved his potential [though his potential was REALLY damn high]. He's still a very nice peak and top 2-3 years, with some useful years outside of that. An OK [and somewhat versatile] scorer, EXCELLENT passing big-man, very very good rebounder, good defender when engaged (though I'll freely acknowledge he was NOT consistently engaged).
Although he's an under-achiever [boy, this is a lukewarm endorsement!], I think he did enough in his career to warrant consideration here.


3rd vote: Zelmo Beaty
He's been name-dropped [not only be me, as of last thread]. I'm gonna start pushing for him.
The more I look at him, the more underrated he looks. Several really solid NBA season (seemed pretty reliable for around 18-21 pts and 11-14 reb on VERY good shooting efficiency basically all thru the mid-late 60s). What's more is he has a passable to decent defensive reputation (known as a pretty physical [almost "enforcer"-type??] defender).

Then he jumps into the ABA of the early-mid 70s (an ABA that had Rick Barry, Mel Daniels, and Dan Issel, plus Erving, Gilmore, and McGinnis by Zelmo's 2nd season), and he immediately looks like one of its very best players for those first two seasons. By his 3rd season in the ABA [now age 33], he declines to being merely fringe All-Star level.

I'll try to post a little more later, but he just looks like a very solid candidate.
Cheeks, Sikma, and Porter also very close here.

Have updated my list [for Condorcet purposes] to include ANYONE who has received votes of any kind, plus some others who are definitley on my radar:
LMA > Webber > Beaty > Cheeks > Sikma > Lowry > Walker > DeBusschere > Hawkins > Bellamy > Hagan > Johnston > G.Williams > D.Johnson > Walton > Jokic > Tiny > Draymond > King (may change the order on Walton/Jokic/Tiny as we go along, but this is how I'm currently feeling).
Could also see bumping Hawkins ahead of DeBusschere +/- Walker. DeBusschere pops a little [visually] when I was doing the game log project, though. Admittedly not always in a good way [takes a lot of shots at questionable accuracy]; but holy crap was he active. Rebounds, deflections, assists, points, generally busting plays; and fwiw he was willing/capable of shooting from the outside, so there was at least a little spacing effect. He'd fit nice in the modern league (where era portability is important to anyone).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Thu May 6, 2021 10:21 pm

Thru post #10:

LaMarcus Aldridge - 1 (trex_8063)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bernard King - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Jack Sikma - 1 (penbeast0)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Cliff Hagan - 1 (ZeppelinPage)


About 27 hours left for this one. Note the new candidate [again]; including [in your Condorcet lists] DeBusschere, Hawkins, Draymond, and Gus Williams [in addition to the seven above] would also be very wise.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#12 » by Hal14 » Thu May 6, 2021 10:34 pm

Condorcet votes:

1. Dennis Johnson
2. Bill Walton
3. Bernard King
4. Connie Hawkins
5. Dave DeBusschere
6. Jack Sikma
7. Cliff Hagan
8) Gus Williams
9. LaMarcus Aldridge
10. Draymond Green
11. Nikola Jokic
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#13 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 7, 2021 4:37 am

Repeating vote with updates.

Doctor MJ wrote:Alright...

1. Connie Hawkins
2. Bill Walton
3. Nikola Jokic

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:
Cliff Hagan
Chris Mullin
Draymond Green
Bernard King
Tiny Archibald
Buck Williams
Dave DeBusschere
Dennis Johnson
Jack Sikma
Jerry Lucas
Walt Bellamy
Gus Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge


Hawk love letter:

I think there's never been anyone like him, before or since. I'm dying to see more footage of him, because honestly I think he's got a bunch of moves that we don't have names for.

The roots of Hawkins becoming what he became are a story not of some kind of inevitable success through sheer talent, but of a guy with great talent getting bounced around and picking up stuff as he went.

Hawkins was a star in each of the following places:
1. The Schoolyard
2. Golden Age NYC High School Basketball
3. ABL
4. Harlem Globetrotters
5. ABA
6. NBA

All 6 of these things are a big deal, though I'll note that I'd consider (1) and (4) the best for understanding how Hawkins became what he became where (5) and (6) represent the proof in the pudding.

To speak on (1), the thing to understand is that play in the school yard all day is what the "good" Black boys did in this era. You were either playing basketball, or you were getting involved in gangs, pimping, and eventually drugs. So if you had basketball talent, this is where your family wanted you. Stay on the court, where it's safe.

And from the perspective of these Black kids, when they played (white) kids from other places, they just always got the sense that those white kids were far less experienced, because they were doing a lot of things other than playing basketball.

So, while Hawkins was dominating the incredibly high quality ball of NYC back then too, the Schoolyard was always where he developed his game. Just trying different things.

Others noted that while Hawkins lacked confidence in general, and was a poor reader and a poor student, he was an extremely quick learner when he saw someone else do something on the basketball court. When an opponent did something with the ball against Hawkins, Hawkins seemed to instantly have a new tool.

It's also important to note that in the Schoolyard, Hawkins didn't start out as The Man. He learned to play by fitting in around others who were older and better. We're talking about a kid who was playing against NBA pros (in the NBA off-season) before he was a High School star, so when he was playing those games, he wasn't just going in as the star. He learned to fit in. He learned how to be an aware passer before he learned to be a scorer.

About (3), so as many of you know, Hawkins was banned from college due to point shaving scandal (he later won a lawsuit clearing his name), so he ended up getting an opportunity in Abe Saperstein's ABL, which had various former NBA pros and a 3-point line. In the lone full season of that league, Hawkins would win MVP.

This is obviously impressive for a guy basically straight out of high school - and speaks both to his talent and how much experience he'd already had beyond just playing against other high schoolers - but I'd also argue that if not for the existence of the ABL, there's a good chance Hawkins would have died on the vine. He didn't have any other great skills other than basketball, so most likely he'd have ended up like many of his other peers still in Brooklyn which was being taken over by a see of heroin.

But his performance in the ABL, led to an invitation to join Saperstein's flagship product: The Harlem Globetrotters.

And as fortune would have it, Sweetwater Clifton - former New York Ren, Globetrotters, NBA all-star - played in the ABL that year with Hawkins, and re-joined the Globetrotters at the same time as Hawkins. And he told Hawkins basically, "You don't realize what kind of things you can do with those big hands!"

He mentored Hawkins on the ways you can use your ability to easily palm a hand. More flexibility when driving, more ways to protect the ball when you're guarded, myriad tricky passes, and the ability to rebound with just one hand so you can use your other arm (ahem, elbow) to fend of opponents.

I've noted before that big hands seem to be a Harlem Globetrotter thing. Beginning with the team's first clown - Goose Tatum - along through Clifton, Meadowlark Lemon, along with Wilt Chamberlain, Hawkins, and others - the Globetrotters seemed to look for guys with big hands in a way that the NBA has literally never done. I've also seen it noted that a particular Globetrotter was held back by his hand size despite being naturally very comedic.

There's a kind of trickery you can do with hands like this that lends itself well to comedy through basketball actions, and this raises the question of whether these Globetrotters were much better at certain basketball skills than NBA players.

There the answer is yes with an asterisk. Most of the tricks the Globetrotters did, while they required great skill, were not designed to hold up against actual defenders, and this was a source of frustration for Hawkins who felt that he was becoming soft due to not playing in a real competitive league, which I'd say was true.

At the same time, he'd still go back to NYC and play in the Schoolyard testing out techniques. Basically, he mined stuff out from the Globetrotters, and the stuff he found could work against actual defenders, he made a part of his repertoire. And this is how he became truly unique.

As we look at Hawkins ABA & NBA years, one of the things to understand is that both when he joined Pittsburgh in the ABA and Phoenix in the NBA, the teams did not immediately re-shape their offenses around Hawkins, and between these ramp up times, Hawkins increasing tendency toward injury, and a tendency for Hawkins to get down on himself, when we look at his yearly stats, it has to be noted that there was far more variance over the course of the season in team and Hawkins-specific performance than you'd expect not simply as a modern observer, but as a contemporary observer. Hawkins wasn't the absolute rock that you'd expect from a Jerry West, and this certainly doesn't help his Top 100 case.

But what this context also means is that when you look at Hawkins' yearly stats those first few years, as impressive as they look, know that they underrate what he was doing at his best.

I've noted before that in his first year in the ABA, Hawkins led the league in PPG despite being 3rd on his team in FGA. He did this by also leading the league in TS%, and do so while also leading the team in APG, RPG, and almost certainly BPG & SPM had they had that data (but interestingly he did not lead his team in TOs, and was 11th on his team in terms of TOs per minute). To lead a team to the title like this is amazing, but it does give rise to the question: Why were other guys shooting more than Hawkins?

The answer seems to be that these guys were just flat out bad chuckers who the coach couldn't get to pass the ball even though he'd sometimes bench them just to ensure the ball went to Hawkins, but apparently the team couldn't get anyone better mid-season (neither would last that much longer in the ABA).

Now, I tend to read stuff that focuses on Hawkins' perspective rather than the perspective Chico Vaughn, so bias is a concern. But my conclusion is that even in a young ABA that wasn't what it would later become, the Pittsburgh Pipers had no business winning a title given the lack of team play. But what was the case is that when Hawkins played the pivot, the offense hummed with Hawkins both scoring incredibly well and passing incredibly well.

Hawkins suffered the defining injury of his career midway through his second ABA season, and most don't think he was ever as good again, yet still he ended up blowing away the NBA once he got going.

What precipitated him getting going? Mid-way through the season, Phoenix Suns GM Jerry Colangelo fired coach Red Kerr, took over as coach, and had the team play with Hawkins in the high post as the guy the offense would run through. Prior to that point, Hawkins had been positioned in the corner while team captain Gail Goodrich dribbled, dribbled, dribble, and then shot. Goodrich, it should be noted seems to have had a good attitude and was willing to play in an offense with Hawkins as the focus, but when left to his own devices, he tended to just iso.

A few more anecdotes in Hawkins first year in the NBA:

1. After the Suns beat the Celtics in Boston, Bill Russell - who had retired the previous year - came over and gushed "You can do things with the ball I've never seen before!". (Hawkins responded "If you'd have been out there, you'd have blocked half my shots". Russell then said "I don't think so".)

2. Hawkins drew rave reviews as the best passer in the league. Was he better than Oscar? I'm not prepared to say that, but what I can say is that Hawkins was doing things Oscar could not. One described play involved Hawkins having the ball in the high post and making two quick passing fakes in opposite directions (which he could do because had had the ball palmed), and then casually dribbling through the now open lane to the basket.

3. Another anecdote: Apparently Hawkins could dribble through press defense unaided. When a team pressed the Suns, they'd pass the ball to Hawkins, and get out of the way, while he dribbled his way through opponents. If this seems unrealistic for a player generally, I'd note that this skill was a major thing before the shot clock, and the team most famous for this ability was the Globetrotters back in their still-competitive days in the '40s. Against the Mikan-led Lakers, the Globetrotters famously gave the ball to master-dribbler Marques Haynes, and he dribbled what remained of the 4th quarter away so that his team could take the last shot.

While the shot clock rendered this specific ability moot, the Globetrotters used it as part of their act, and so this was something the Globetrotter players actually practiced, and Hawkins honed the ability there.

So I'd say the most amazing thing isn't that someone could do this, but that Hawkins at 6'8" could do this.

4. I'd note that Wilt said that Hawkins was the only guy in the world who could play "all three positions" - by which he meant guard, forward, and center.

I should also note that Hawkins's quickness and agility was tied to his lithe fame, so when Hawkins played center, he took a severe beating that made it hard for him to sustain that kind of play over a season.

I'll also note that Hawkins was a guy who got very little training in formal defense. With his long arms and quickness he could get blocks and steals, but he struggled beyond that.

5. Some people hated his "clown antics". Some refs in particular. I think this makes sense because the Globetrotters - while they may be clowns - spend their games making their opponents look like fools. What happens when you do that to someone who isn't paid to take it? Animosity.

6. Among players, Elvin Hayes in particular apparently expressed hostility toward Hawkins, and this led to a showdown in the very last game of the '69-70 season which Hawkin's Suns needed to make the playoffs. The Suns were down 19 points at half time, and in the second half Hawkins & Hayes matched up. Hawkins led the team back to a victory with a 44/20/8 night on 30 FGA, and was said to have had 5 blocks & 5 steals in the 3rd quarter alone. Multiple of those blocks came on Hayes who went for 23/18/2 on 25 FGA.

7. In the playoffs, the Suns would fight hard before losing in 7 to the West/Wilt led Lakers, with some making the comment that it was essentially "the Lakers vs Connie Hawkins".

After that year, Hawkins would still have great runs, but injuries took more of a toll. The general feeling was that his body was much older than his age suggested having played 250 Globetrotter games per year while others his age were playing 25 college games per year, to say nothing about all that time on the Schoolyard.

In the end, with Hawkins, I think it's very hard to know how to rank him and so I completely understand those who won't have him in the Top 100. More than anything else, I hope others can just appreciate how singular he was, and how significant on a level beyond simple career impact.

But I do think he warrants a place above Bill Walton, who is my #3 pick here. Love, love, love Walton, but as much as Hawkins had longevity issues, I'd say Walton had them worse, and I'm not comfortable saying that Walton was clearly the better player best vs best. I think Walton was amazing like this, and he certainly has the defensive edge overall, but in some ways I feel like you could look at Walton on offense as a poor man's Hawkins.

Part of what I'm saying here is that I believe that the pivot-and-cut offense that Jack Ramsay instituted for Walton in Portland is not some completely new thing, but rather something that was huge and never really made it to the NBA. Once the basketball world saw Mikan & Kurland, pivot-and-cut passing didn't seem as useful as just pass to low post and score. And when that paradigm got challenged, it got challenged by perimeter-oriented offenses that in today's game are dominant.

I would submit that we've never really seen the potential for a pivot-and-cut offense in the modern NBA until Nikola Jokic, and I might make a comparison between Jokic & Hawkins. And on that front, note that I have Jokic below Walton. Through the end of last season, I didn't think Jokic had done enough to surpass Walton, but with this season, well, things are changing.

I will note, with regards to context, I consider Jokic to be more of "random genius" than Hawkins. I think Hawkins became what he did because he was shaped by unique context and had specific, rare physical gifts. Jokic seems like he was born like this.

Alright, beyond Hawk I've got Walton & Jokic on my ballot.

So first, what that means is that I'm clearly right now siding on peak/prime over longevity relative to some other folks. As I always say, I'm not going to tell you that your longevity weighting is wrong - I think that's up to personal philosophy.

I will say on Walton I've had him all over my ballots through the years and really don't know where to put him...but I do think that he deserves to be higher than Jokic through '19-20. I understand that you can argue that Jokic should win based on a longevity edge, but Jokic is obviously weak there as well, and Walton being a key part of a championship team 7 years after the first really cements that indelible impression I have of him.

If you just think Jokic through last year was better than Walton, I get that, but I'd not feel comfortable saying that because Walton was the best defender on the planet.

On Jokic over other guys, the first guy I want to mention is someone I've not even been listing out because he hasn't had traction: Draymond Green. When I look at current players not in, those two are the next ones on my list and to be honest I expected to have Green ahead of Jokic.

If I felt strongly about Green over Jokic, I'd be arguing for that now, but I'm not. I can see arguments both ways, but Green really doesn't have much of a longevity edge, and as special as Green was at his best, I do think Jokic was more special by a smidge even before this year.

On Tiny Archibald - I'm really convinced at this point that he was an absolute killer at his best. He feels like he should be easily a Top 100 guy for me, and I rank him above some guys already on the list, but obviously there are still guys left out there that I like even better.

Since Porter almost got in is that I actually would put Buck Williams over Porter. Porter's greater if you factor in just their Blazer career, but Buck's work on the Nets is big too, so I'm slotting Buck in.

Also, it's bugging me that Chris Mullin isn't being given more love. I think it's worth reiterating that he wasn't a "fringe Dream Teamer". He was more of a lock than Barkley, and his minutes played in the Olympics speaks to this. Basically he had a role with some similarities to what what Miller/Allen/Curry would later have, and which is still tremendously underrated today imho.


btw, added Hagan high on my list. Will continue to evaluate him.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#14 » by prolific passer » Fri May 7, 2021 4:51 am

Hagan along with Baylor was one of the early big, strong, athletic small forwards who can pretty much do it all out on the floor.
Also. Kemp needs a look. Was great on both ends during his prime and gave a prime Hakeem fits from 93-97.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#15 » by sansterre » Fri May 7, 2021 10:54 am

#1. Draymond Green - Draymond is a weird player to evaluate. Normally I'm big on longevity and Draymond is still playing. But his peak (by certain metrics) was crazy. He's an insane ceiling raiser, like Ben Wallace but better. And unlike the Ben Wallace argument "Yeah, but having him kills your offense" you really can't argue that for Draymond. Because he was on a lot of extremely strong offenses. He wasn't a great scorer by a long shot, but he was an outstanding passer. A lot of people don't realize that Draymond often averaged more Assists/100 than Curry did (the two were neck and neck during their peak years). So despite not being a good scorer (and he was okay, averaging around league average shooting on high teens usage) he actually tended toward being a net positive on offense from all the impact data we have. And his ability to play a hyper-aware long-armed center in a lineup of all athletic wings (and Curry) transformed the Warriors. I'm not making any argument that Green is as valuable to the Warriors as Curry was. But his AuRPM numbers actually come out looking really close to Curry, and in 2017 were above Durant in both AuRPM and RAPM.

The Warriors from 2015 to 2018 were four of the best teams ever and every impact metric we have suggests that Draymond was a very close 2nd in value on three of them. Unlike shot-blocking bigs like Embiid and Gobert, Draymond's defensive value tends to go up in the playoffs. Because smart switchability is a serious asset in playoff defense and Draymond has that as well as anyone.

Do I have him too high here? Maybe. His 2016 PIPM kind of broke my metric. But the impact metrics scream that he was one of the most valuable players in the league during his peak.

Was he a crap floor-raiser? Definitely. And if you like floor-raisers or wins-added, then Draymond is probably far lower on your list.

But we have to make our peace with the fact that he may have been one of the greatest ceiling-raisers ever. And there's some serious value there. From a CORP point of view, he has a pretty respectable argument.

#2. Kyle Lowry - This may seem incongruous, but Kyle Lowry has some pretty strong selling points. His career has actually been quietly impressive. He's got four different 10+ Win Share seasons and over 30k career minutes. He's got four seasons above 4.5 VORP. Did you know that of all active NBA players he's currently 11th in Win Shares and VORP? These are respectably impressive stats. But would you believe that Kyle Lowry's impact metrics are outstanding? He put up a +4.5 AuRPM in 2014, a +4.6 AuRPM in 2015, a +6.5 in 2016 (10th in the league) and a +6.3 in 2017 (6th). His RAPM in 2018 (including playoffs) was 6th in the league (ESPN's RPM has him #1), ESPN's RPM has him 5th in 2019 and it has him 6th in 2020. By Impact metrics, Kyle Lowry's been a Top 10 player in the league for the past five years.

How is this possible? After all, Lowry is a good offensive player but not great. He's pretty consistently in the low 20s for usage and his shooting was only around +3 or +4 in his five-year peak. How good can he be? But he's also a weirdly quality rebounder. Kyle Lowry may be the best rebounding six footer ever (not a huge claim to fame, but still). He has eight different seasons at 7% TRB or higher, while no other six footer has more than 4. You could argue that he's a rebound-chaser, but his impact metrics suggest that isn't the case. He's a strong floor spacer (half his shots are threes and he made them at 38% over the last ten seasons) and a strong passer (passer ratings at 6.5 or higher from Ben Taylor). I won't argue that he has the offensive impact of a Lillard (though he surely has more longevity). But unlike Lillard, Lowry is a strong defender, generally considered an underrated team defender with a knack for drawing charges. And if he's an actual plus on defense (as most metrics consider him) that means he doesn't need to be as good on offense for the same level of impact.

Has he struggled in the playoffs historically? Yes. But no more than Lillard has, and Dame has been getting a fair amount of love in these votes. And recently Lowry has turned it around in the postseason, posting the 4th best RAPTOR-WAR in the '19 playoffs (+6.6 average) and 5th best in the '20 playoffs (+9.3).

Like Porter, like a lot of guys I champion, he's not super-sexy. But he's had a long career and a strong peak. Instead of being an all-offense chucker he's good at everything, and was a key piece in leading the Raptors to their first ever NBA title. Maybe he deserves some love too. :)

#3. Walt Bellamy - If ever a player was optimized to show up well in the limited stats we have from the first two decades of the league, Walt Bellamy is it. His Win Share CORP absolutely blows everyone else out of the water. He put up seven different 10+ Win Share seasons, including a 16 WS rookie year (where he was 2nd in the league). Like Bob McAdoo and Tiny Archibald he hit the league hard, put up a lot of great seasons, but peaked early and was regressing hard by the time he approached his late 20s/early 30s. Bellamy was a monster scorer, perhaps the best scoring big of the 60s besides . . . some guy I can't remember. Bellamy routinely took 25+% of his shots and made them in the +6% to +8% range, which is really good (especially for the 60s). He was also a strong rebounder (not great). Detractors would argue that he didn't really port his performance into the playoffs well, that he wasn't often a motivated defender and that the Knicks took off once they traded him. As to the first two points that's fair, but I don't agree with the last one. Bellamy was built to be a floor-raiser, a guy who could take a lot of shots (and make them well) no matter what the defense did to stop him. But the Knicks had Clyde Frazier *and* Willis Reed *and* Cazzie Russell. They didn't need a floor-raising scorer, they needed a ceiling-raising defender and they got a great one in Dave DeBusschere (incidentally, the change in the Knicks as a result of the Bellamy -> DeBusschere swap is literally the perfect example of the flaws in the "first option uber alles" philosophy of player evaluation. Bellamy had a long career (for that era), during which he put up Top 6 numbers in points five times. A lot of his other metrics aren't great; his WOWYR is low, his playoff metrics aren't great (of course, he didn't make the playoffs at his peak) and the BackPicks BPM doesn't like him much. But his Win Shares are fantastic. Again, he's like Tiny/McAdoo if their peaks had gone way longer. He's not the kind of player I normally like, but the sheer weight of his scoring and performance on weaker teams merits consideration.

D.Green > Kyle Lowry > Bellamy > Eddie Jones > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > M.Cheeks > S.Kemp > B.Walton > P.George > LaMarcus Aldridge > Webber > Sikma > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > G.Williams > Hagan > Lucas > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere > J.Butler > M. Johnson > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald
"If you wish to see the truth, hold no opinions."

"Trust one who seeks the truth. Doubt one who claims to have found the truth."
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#16 » by Odinn21 » Fri May 7, 2021 6:24 pm

94. Gus Williams
It's interesting to me that a player with similar prime but worse postseason resilience made the list before Gus in Lillard.
Gus had decent prime duration, elite peak and prime level. Had he not sat out a season with a contract dispute, I’d probably make a case for him earlier. But that season without him showed how valuable he was.
1979 Sonics, 52 wins and title with Gus, Sikma and DJ
1980 Sonics, 56 wins and WCF loss against the eventual champions with Gus, Sikma and DJ
1981 Sonics, 34 wins and no playoffs with only Sikma (Gus sat out, DJ was traded away for Westphal and Westphal played only 36 games)
1982 Sonics, 52 wins and 2nd round exit with Gus and Sikma (Westphal wasn’t in Seattle in that season)

95. Walt Bellamy
His prime has some inconsistencies but he had a career trajectory of a ‘00s player in the ‘60s with good quality. It’s all there for him.
(In terms of first few seasons, Bellamy and Hawkins are pretty similar but curious about why Hawkins should be a better candidate than Bellamy, Cunningham, Issel with their entire careers. It’s arguable that Hawkins peaked higher to begin with...)

96. Bernard King
Arguably the best peak among the big scoring wings of the '80s (Gervin, Dantley, English and Wilkins). Even after the injuries he was still a good impact ended up with nearly 20k career point.
I know my list is quite harsh on Bill Walton and Connie Hawkins who do not have much to show for outside of their top 3 or 4 seasons. But King is not like them to me. If anything, King is like a more impactful Carmelo Anthony IMO.

J. Sikma > C. Hagan > D. DeBusschere > J. Worthy > B. Dandridge > C. Webber > N. Jokic > > K. Lowry > L. Aldridge > D. Green > Z. Beaty > C. Hawkins > B. Walton > N. Archibald > N. Johnston > D. Johnson > T. Heinsohn > F. Ramsey
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#17 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri May 7, 2021 9:37 pm

trex_8063 wrote: --


Updated my rankings in my OP to include Beaty, Hagan and Dandridge. I also moved Lowry ahead of Gus Williams and Johnston/Draymond ahead of Jokic.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 

Post#18 » by trex_8063 » Sat May 8, 2021 1:21 am

Thru post #17:

LaMarcus Aldridge - 1 (trex_8063)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Draymond Green - 1 (sansterre)
Gus Williams - 1 (Odinn21)
Connie Hawkins - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Bernard King - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Jack Sikma - 1 (penbeast0)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Cliff Hagan - 1 (ZeppelinPage)


10 votes for 10 players, so it comes down to the all-around Condorcet leader. And that is.......Cliff Hagan!

He kinda came out of no where: ZeppelinPage returns to the project and casts him his one and only vote.....but that goes to show that EVERY vote counts. That one vote puts his toe in the door, only one other poster had him on their ballot at all [in 3rd]; but he's someone that NONE of the 10 voters thinks lowly of.....and that was enough to come out tops in all-around Condorcet.

Against the nine others, his W-L-T record was 8-0-1 (his one tie was against Sikma). I didn't run the full Condorcet on everyone, once it became clear Hagan was tops, but suffice to say Sikma and Draymond both did pretty well, too. Jokic was 2-1-1 in the four match-ups I actually counted for him.
Anyway, I'll get the next up....

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

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Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

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Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

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876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #94 (Cliff Hagan) 

Post#19 » by Hal14 » Sat May 8, 2021 1:33 am

Kemba has been by far our best player tonight.

Dude is playing hard. Way to take another charge!
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)

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