The LeBron Thread 2021 Off-Season Edition

[VanWest82]

What the hell. Is your ego so fragile that a light statement like that would have you taking offense and replying like that? If you can't stay civil kindly move along and have a good day.

I'm being the same amount of civil as you and I'm actually taking the time to respond to your points with real data.

So being asked if your opinion of their defense is based on their placement in the boxscore stat (RAPTOR) you yourself posted and made a case for as a reliable tool is where you lost it? You need to learn debating etiquette.

Look in the mirror bud. I just responded to your accusation in kind. There's no difference. Anyways, I'm going to leave it at that. Have a good day.

[Greyhound]

The LeBron thread has been highjacked by this misguided defensive activity theory, but hey…

I’ll give it a go.

Being active defensively can be a great thing, but hyper activity and effectiveness are not one and the same.

Just because a player is being extremely active with deflections, blocks and contests, that does not automatically make them superior defensively to a less active player (who uses positioning and anticipation to deter actions altogether).

An active big who swoops in for the big block looks good visually, but what’s better is the big who positions himself in such a way to quickly react to anything his assignment may decide to do, while simultaneously clogging the lane and deterring the drive in the first place.

There is no “activity” on display, no deflection, no impressive block registered (or attempted). That less “active” (thought out) approach can actually provide greater defensive impact.

Volume contest numbers will resister the block as a good defensive showing, while neglecting the fact that the only reason there was an attempt on the basket (in the first place) is because the shot blocker was out of position and pushed under the basket by his man at the beginning of the play. The other guy was never out of position, he was never pushed under the basket, there was no attempt on the basket as a result. Volume contest numbers would suggest that he provided zero value defensively on that possession.

Those who know, know better. Those who can assess the value of inactivity, when it provides impact.

———-

This is not a discussion that can be settled with sweeping generalizations (one way or the other). You have to study individual players and how they perform on a case by case basis to make the assessment.

What I will say is that LeBron James has been a much better defender the last couple years then people are giving him credit for with this defensive activity mumbo jumbo. His lack of activity is more than made up for by his positional versatility, his ability to orchestrate the team defense vocally and by positioning himself to deter actions regularly.

His impact on that end is quantifiable, even if it is not visibly obvious to the casual viewer.

[VanWest82]

An active big who swoops in for the big block looks good visually, but what’s better is the big who positions himself in such a way to quickly react to anything his assignment may decide to do, while simultaneously clogging the lane and deterring the drive in the first place.

There is no “activity” on display, no deflection, no impressive block registered (or attempted). That less “active” (thought out) approach can actually provide greater defensive impact.

Volume contest numbers will resister the block as a good defensive showing, while neglecting the fact that the only reason there was an attempt on the basket (in the first place) is because the shot blocker was out of position and pushed under the basket by his man at the beginning of the play. The other guy was never out of position, he was never pushed under the basket, there was no attempt on the basket as a result. Volume contest numbers would suggest that he provided zero value defensively on that possession.

Those who know, know better. Those who can assess the value of inactivity, when it provides impact.

———-

His impact on that end is quantifiable, even if it is not visibly obvious to the casual viewer.

Maybe you can help this casual out as I have a few follow up questions.

1. Do you see any other examples of players who consistently rate lower on def box raptor but otherwise have this crazy outsized impact defensively? In other words, is this just a "Lebron is a unicorn" argument - that he's basically the only player who deters actions in volume ahead of time without the corresponding increase in things like deflections, contests, steals, etc.? It seems like if we look at other highly intelligent defensive players in similar off ball forward help roles (e.g. Draymond, Giannis, Kawhi, Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gay, etc.) they usually also have positive def box metrics.

2. What do you make of Lebron's def box increasing so frequently in the playoffs? By your logic we could deduce that his defense is actually less effective because he's now the guy not anticipating and therefore having to contest more and do more. It sure looks like he's just trying harder and is more active and therefore disrupting more plays and that's why his def box increases but maybe I'm missing something.

3. Could it be the case that someone like Lebron is really smart but also is perhaps sometimes a little low on the defensive energy scale, and that this is a better explanation for why the numbers are the way they are than Lebron is a one-of-a-kind super genius who erases things before they happen (which I acknowledge does happen sometimes)?

Thanks in advance. Feel free to PM me if you feel like this is derailing the thread. I don't want to ruin things for other posters but I find this topic interesting and there are a lot of knowledgeable Lebron fans on this forum.

[thebigbird]

No idea why the Lakers used their 14th roster spot on a rookie instead of a veteran wing but whatever. I’ve given up trying to understand their roster moves. Pelinka is a moron and Buss is cheap.

[falcolombardi]

An active big who swoops in for the big block looks good visually, but what’s better is the big who positions himself in such a way to quickly react to anything his assignment may decide to do, while simultaneously clogging the lane and deterring the drive in the first place.

There is no “activity” on display, no deflection, no impressive block registered (or attempted). That less “active” (thought out) approach can actually provide greater defensive impact.

Volume contest numbers will resister the block as a good defensive showing, while neglecting the fact that the only reason there was an attempt on the basket (in the first place) is because the shot blocker was out of position and pushed under the basket by his man at the beginning of the play. The other guy was never out of position, he was never pushed under the basket, there was no attempt on the basket as a result. Volume contest numbers would suggest that he provided zero value defensively on that possession.

Those who know, know better. Those who can assess the value of inactivity, when it provides impact.

———-

His impact on that end is quantifiable, even if it is not visibly obvious to the casual viewer.

Maybe you can help this casual out as I have a few follow up questions.

1. Do you see any other examples of players who consistently rate lower on def box raptor but otherwise have this crazy outsized impact defensively? In other words, is this just a "Lebron is a unicorn" argument - that he's basically the only player who deters actions in volume ahead of time without the corresponding increase in things like deflections, contests, steals, etc.? It seems like if we look at other highly intelligent defensive players in similar off ball forward help roles (e.g. Draymond, Giannis, Kawhi, Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gay, etc.) they usually also have positive def box metrics.

2. What do you make of Lebron's def box increasing so frequently in the playoffs? By your logic we could deduce that his defense is actually less effective because he's now the guy not anticipating and therefore having to contest more and do more. It sure looks like he's just trying harder and is more active and therefore disrupting more plays and that's why his def box increases but maybe I'm missing something.

3. Could it be the case that someone like Lebron is really smart but also is perhaps sometimes a little low on the defensive energy scale, and that this is a better explanation for why the numbers are the way they are than Lebron is a one-of-a-kind super genius who erases things before they happen (which I acknowledge does happen sometimes)?

Thanks in advance. Feel free to PM me if you feel like this is derailing the thread. I don't want to ruin things for other posters but I find this topic interesting and there are a lot of knowledgeable Lebron fans on this forum.

i honestly dont see what the issue is

lebron can be good defensively while conserving Energy in regular season. and even better in the playoffs while spending Energy. the probable right answer is that he is good in both but even mpre so in playoffs

and by looking at team results is not like lakers struggled in defense during regular season

all players start being selective with the Energy spent in defense as they get older, more injured or carry bigger offensive loada

it happened with jordan, kawhi, lebron, kobe, etc

[Homer38]

Report: Anthony Davis has emerged as expected starting center for Lakers
By Justin Benjamin



The Los Angeles Lakers reportedly have their center slot filled.

According to Bill Oram, Shams Charania, and Sam Amick of The Athletic, superstar Anthony Davis is expected to be the team’s starting center.

“Since Davis arrived from New Orleans two years ago, the Lakers’ best lineups have featured him at center,” Oram, Charania and Amick wrote. “With [Russell] Westbrook aboard, sources said Davis has emerged as the expected starting center, clearing the way for a likely starting five of him, [Russell] Westbrook, [Wayne] Ellington, [Trevor] Ariza and [LeBron] James, according to sources. Third-year guard Talen Horton-Tucker, a rising, young talent for the Lakers, is also expected to compete in camp for a possible starting role.”

more on this

https://lakersdaily.com/report-anthony-davis-has-emerged-as-expected-starting-center-for-lakers/

[Homer38]

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[Homer38]

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[Slava]

No idea why the Lakers used their 14th roster spot on a rookie instead of a veteran wing but whatever. I’ve given up trying to understand their roster moves. Pelinka is a moron and Buss is cheap.

Both Reaves and Ayayi were projected mid 2nd round picks who worked with their agents to find a way to the lakers for two way deals. I think lakers would have picked either of them if they had a pick to spare.

[nzahir]

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Makes sense or the spacing would be a catastrophe, but lets see if things change during training camp

I wonder how the bench rotation will be though.

Nunn, Bazemore, THT, Melo, Dwight?

Not sure where Monk fits. Always felt like either he and or Wayne would basically be cut out the picture, especially during the playoffs. So if Ellington starts (for now), then I assume Monk makes the most sense to start if Ellington gets hurt or if he just doesn't work out

1) He replaces Bazemore, which I would hate since we need defenders out there too.
2) He replaces/takes some min from THT and Nunn
3) He takes minutes from Melo, but then we feel too thin and short up front

Rondo and DJ should only play when there are injuries

Smart to have one of Bazemore or Ariza off the bench to help that defense. I actually like the bench a lot, or at least the on paper fit

Bench does need a defensive helper though out there with them on the wing. Bron or maybe Ariza. I have seen Monk can play decent help D as well, but only some clips

[homecourtloss]

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Makes sense or the spacing would be a catastrophe, but lets see if things change during training camp

I wonder how the bench rotation will be though.

Nunn, Bazemore, THT, Melo, Dwight?

Not sure where Monk fits. Always felt like either he and or Wayne would basically be cut out the picture, especially during the playoffs. So if Ellington starts (for now), then I assume Monk makes the most sense to start if Ellington gets hurt or if he just doesn't work out

1) He replaces Bazemore, which I would hate since we need defenders out there too.
2) He replaces/takes some min from THT and Nunn
3) He takes minutes from Melo, but then we feel too thin and short up front

Rondo and DJ should only play when there are injuries

Smart to have one of Bazemore or Ariza off the bench to help that defense. I actually like the bench a lot, or at least the on paper fit

Bench does need a defensive helper though out there with them on the wing. Bron or maybe Ariza. I have seen Monk can play decent help D as well, but only some clips

Would like to see Bazemore start in place off Ellington. Ellington is a pure shooter, but he’s awful defensively. Bazemore can make open threes and plays defense. For every game Ellington makes 2-3 threes in the first quarter, he’ll have 2 or 3 games making nothing to start and bleeding points on the other end.

[Homer38]

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[Homer38]

This is official!

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[Homer38]

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[LukaTheGOAT]

Some fun off-season Lebron facts.

PlayVal = Playmaking value, an estimate of a player’s points per 100 impact from playmaking only.

3-year playoff stretches above +2.0 PlayVal

Magic 10x
Stockton 8x
LeBron 7x
Nash 5x
Paul 3x

In terms of 3-year playoff PlayVal peaks, Lebron is tied for #1 all-time with Magic and Steve Nash.

Player Stretch PS ScoreVal
LeBron James 2018-20 2.5
Magic Johnson 1986-88 2.5
Steve Nash 2005-07 2.5

In terms of Backpicks Offensive Box-Plus Minus, Lebron holds the record for the most seasons with an offensive box-plus minus above 5:
LeBron (10 times)
Jordan (7x)
Magic (4x)
Harden (4x)

We've really been blessed to watch such a nice career.

[homecourtloss]

In terms of Backpicks Offensive Box-Plus Minus, Lebron holds the record for the most seasons with an offensive box-plus minus above 5:
LeBron (10 times)
Jordan (7x)
Magic (4x)
Harden (4x)

We've really been blessed to watch such a nice career.

Is this Backpicks’ BPM for RS+PS or just RS?

I’m assuming for regular season

Lebron: ‘09, ‘10, ‘11, ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘16, ‘17, ‘18, ‘20
Jordan: ‘87, ‘88, ‘89, ‘90, ‘91, ‘92, ‘93 or ‘96 instead of ‘87
Magic: ‘87, ‘89, ‘90, ‘91
Harden: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20

[LukaTheGOAT]

In terms of Backpicks Offensive Box-Plus Minus, Lebron holds the record for the most seasons with an offensive box-plus minus above 5:
LeBron (10 times)
Jordan (7x)
Magic (4x)
Harden (4x)

We've really been blessed to watch such a nice career.

Is this Backpicks’ BPM for RS+PS or just RS?

I’m assuming for regular season

Lebron: ‘09, ‘10, ‘11, ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘16, ‘17, ‘18, ‘20
Jordan: ‘87, ‘88, ‘89, ‘90, ‘91, ‘92, ‘93 or ‘96 instead of ‘87
Magic: ‘87, ‘89, ‘90, ‘91
Harden: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20

Just regular season.

[MisterHibachi]

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He definitely looks much bigger coming into this year. Can't really tell about his lower body, but chest and shoulders look bulkier. Hopefully serves him well for a full time role at the 5.

[MisterHibachi]

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I think Bazemore + Ariza/Ellington would be the best two to round it out.

[nzahir]

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I think Bazemore + Ariza/Ellington would be the best two to round it out.

Why is Bazemore + Ellington better than Ariza and Ellington?

I think Ellington's best defensive role is chaser, so he would somewhat make sense

Russ-POA on guard

Ellington-Chaser

Ariza-Wing Stopper

Lebron-Help Defender

AD-Rim protector

Bazemore is versatile though and can be a chaser, stopper, or POA defender even I believe

My worry with Ellington is the way we use him on offense. He is a better shooter coming off of screens and movement instead of a catch and shoot guy

But his role would likely be a catch and shoot with the starting lineup

Maybe he makes more sense off the bench and use him more in certain sets and start Monk or Bazemore with Ariza

My worry with Bazemore and Ariza off the bench is having no smart guard/wing defenders off the bench

THT can be a good man defender, but he has been a very bad off ball defender and rotation defender.

Maybe he has improved a lot there though, not sure ofc

Still would love for us to have another 3 and d wing