[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, Doctor MJ, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Quotatious

falcolombardi
Junior
Posts: 455
And1: 288
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#41 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jun 9, 2021 10:50 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
Owly wrote:Moses had a good 3 game series ... but if someone is saying he "beat a dynasty team" (incidentally, 3.27 SRS Lakers ... I'm inclined to think that era Lakers were a bit overrated because of titles coming out of the West and stars but that version with Magic playing like that ... certainly not a vintage year) ... I think the context needs raising even just at a team level discussion.


I don't think the Lakers regular season results are usable to Magic missed games. They are a clear stacked team in the middle of the two title teams, but weird results can happen in 3 games.


sure but both teams knew what the formst was and how crucial each game and thst they had to go 110% in each game, and lakers lost in those circunstances, fair and square

and rockets still went 2-1, is far from guaranteed that lakerss would have won in 7

fwiw was it any more common to are 1st or 2nd seed upset in 3 game series?, cause for how much more volátile it seems. i dont think there were much more upset by lower seeds, 81 is always brought up but is not like 2007 mavs or 2011 spurs didnt happen too in 7 games
Owly
Analyst
Posts: 3,488
And1: 1,835
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#42 » by Owly » Wed Jun 9, 2021 11:03 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:
Owly wrote:Moses had a good 3 game series ... but if someone is saying he "beat a dynasty team" (incidentally, 3.27 SRS Lakers ... I'm inclined to think that era Lakers were a bit overrated because of titles coming out of the West and stars but that version with Magic playing like that ... certainly not a vintage year) ... I think the context needs raising even just at a team level discussion.


I don't think the Lakers regular season results are usable to Magic missed games. They are a clear stacked team in the middle of the two title teams, but weird results can happen in 3 games.


sure but both teams knew what the formst was and how crucial each game and thst they had to go 110% in each game, and lakers lost in those circunstances, fair and square

and rockets still went 2-1, is far from guaranteed that lakerss would have won in 7

fwiw was it any more common to are 1st or 2nd seed upset in 3 game series?, cause for how much more volátile it seems. i dont think there were much more upset by lower seeds, 81 is always brought up but is not like 2007 mavs or 2011 spurs didnt happen too in 7 games

The contention isn't that the Lakers didn't know the rules or that it was unfair. Nor is it that the Lakers were "guaranteed" to win in 7.

It is that a short series involves a greater probability of inferior teams advancing.

Best of 3 at a glance in that era ... upsets include both matchups in the '83 West (notably Denver over Phoenix but also Portland over Seattle) and arguably at the very margins Knicks over Nets (though Nets lost Larry Brown late in the season). '81 Kings over Trailblazers. It doesn't matter though, the math is sufficient.
User avatar
homecourtloss
General Manager
Posts: 7,659
And1: 12,283
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#43 » by homecourtloss » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:25 am

1. Hakeem, 1993-1994. Incredible two way impact.
2. Harden, 2019-2020. Could go with 2018 or 2019 with the wild 1.20+ PPP on ISOs, but 2020 showed good playoff resiliency
3. Moses, 1981-1982. Offensive box score metrics look great followed by his unique impact watching him play
4. TMac, 2004–2005. Great impact year
5. Yao, 2008–2009. Two way impact.

HM, 1969 Big E, 2018 CP3 (more games needed), 2003 Steve Francis (edited).
OdomFan wrote:I'd rather have Ray Allen on my team [over Curry].


Hal14 wrote:Not saying I put McHale over Duncan, but the argument can be made.
falcolombardi
Junior
Posts: 455
And1: 288
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#44 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:41 am

Owly wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:
I don't think the Lakers regular season results are usable to Magic missed games. They are a clear stacked team in the middle of the two title teams, but weird results can happen in 3 games.


sure but both teams knew what the formst was and how crucial each game and thst they had to go 110% in each game, and lakers lost in those circunstances, fair and square

and rockets still went 2-1, is far from guaranteed that lakerss would have won in 7

fwiw was it any more common to are 1st or 2nd seed upset in 3 game series?, cause for how much more volátile it seems. i dont think there were much more upset by lower seeds, 81 is always brought up but is not like 2007 mavs or 2011 spurs didnt happen too in 7 games

The contention isn't that the Lakers didn't know the rules or that it was unfair. Nor is it that the Lakers were "guaranteed" to win in 7.

It is that a short series involves a greater probability of inferior teams advancing.

Best of 3 at a glance in that era ... upsets include both matchups in the '83 West (notably Denver over Phoenix but also Portland over Seattle) and arguably at the very margins Knicks over Nets (though Nets lost Larry Brown late in the season). '81 Kings over Trailblazers. It doesn't matter though, the math is sufficient.


the less games the more variability yes, but maybe not ny as much as is often assumed?

of the series you mention in 83' west there are 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 series, those kind of upsets happen every year in 7 game series too, hawks just nearly swept the 4th seed, miami 4th seed beat bucks # 1 seed last year too. etc

nothing that unexpected that would make us blame the series format

i feel like the difference in volatility between 3 and 7 game series is not enough to discredit the former
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,840
And1: 9,400
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#45 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:45 am

I swapped CP3 and Moses. The arguments for Moses for me that made me change my mind was the missed time.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
Owly
Analyst
Posts: 3,488
And1: 1,835
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#46 » by Owly » Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:07 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Owly wrote:The contention isn't that the Lakers didn't know the rules or that it was unfair. Nor is it that the Lakers were "guaranteed" to win in 7.

It is that a short series involves a greater probability of inferior teams advancing.

Best of 3 at a glance in that era ... upsets include both matchups in the '83 West (notably Denver over Phoenix but also Portland over Seattle) and arguably at the very margins Knicks over Nets (though Nets lost Larry Brown late in the season). '81 Kings over Trailblazers. It doesn't matter though, the math is sufficient.


the less games the more variability yes, but maybe not ny as much as is often assumed?

I don't what the generic person assumes. For actual odds movement see later.


falcolombardi wrote:of the series you mention in 83' west there are 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 series,

Of course they are! Those are the seedings for the matchups in the qualifying/first round. You can't suggest upsets don't seem that common, then when they might be say "well that's not much of an upset, those seeds -the ones that play each other- are too close together". And 3-6 back then is out of circa 23 teams. So 6th in conference will be around league average maybe circa .500. And at the time top seeds were locked to division winners. So third could be the second best team in the conference. '83 Suns (4.61 SRS) versus Nuggets (0.27 SRS) - a pretty significant upset - illustrates this.

falcolombardi wrote:those kind of upsets happen every year in 7 game series too, hawks just nearly swept the 4th seed,

A 4-5 matchup? In which the 5 has the (very, very slightly) superior SRS. How is this an upset?

falcolombardi wrote:miami 4th seed beat bucks # 1 seed last year too. etc

A legit upset.

So
1) I can seemingly, with a quick search of nearby years find more upsets than you can recall/cite despite many more 7 games series (especially given you're not limiting yourself to round 1, so even if in just rounds 1 and two you have 12 series, each year, all freshly available in recent memory, versus 4 series a year).

2) Nowhere was the claim 7 games is a perfect sample. I don't love tournaments to decide champions if the objective is to find the best team, worse teams still advance. But significantly less so.

falcolombardi wrote:nothing that unexpected that would make us blame the series format

i feel like the difference in volatility between 3 and 7 game series is not enough to discredit the former

Tangent: Personal opinion wise would you be happy enough if all series were best of 3?

Even if team performance levels were constant, like a loaded coin, rather than varying over single games and injuries on top of that more influential in smaller samples ... if my checker is correct: a 70-30 at single game level matchup nearly doubles the upset odds in Bo3 versus Bo7, up about 10%.

Anyhow got to go ... can edit better go into it further later if desired.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 19,233
And1: 15,337
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#47 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:35 am

I don't think the argument that Moses should be ranked above guys because he 'beat' certain teams should be used. Sounds like a very Isiah Thomas-esque argument, even if Moses did play well in those games. Obviously the Lakers were not that good and it's way easier to beat a talented team in 2/3 - the latter isn't even something that should be debated.

The Timberwolves were much better than their record suggested. They were the 3rd seed in the West - they fell down in the standings due to Butler's injury. Their seeding doomed them, on paper a lot of people would pick them to go to the 2nd round but we're too far removed from those times to remember the Wolves were doing as well most non-super teams.


I'd argue CP3 and Harden being the heliocentric piece of a team that nearly beat the Warriors is a greater sign of impact than being the centerpiece of a miracle run. Taking 3 games off those Durant Warriors is something no other teams have done in 2.5ish post seasons. Again, those 2018 Rockets were really crazy good - we have a natural tendency to not consider non-championship teams as all time great teams, but the 2018 Rockets might be the best team in Rockets history.


So even if we are playing the "he beat this team" game, I don't think Moses gets any separation really. I don't think missing RS games matters much as well, considering making the playoffs is easy in the NBA for any team worth a salt.

Chris Paul's post injury was minor, more the type to miss 3 games - certainly not half of the WCF + all of the NBA finals (he did not play in the NBA finals because his team was eliminated not because he was injured). So it's certainly a penalty but not a dooming one like an ACL tear. If the Warriors weren't so freakishly talented a hamstring injury would not have even mattered for the 18 Rockets (kind of like how Curry got some hardware despite missing games).


However, I don't think Chris Paul was all that great in the post season, never had enough time to turn it around but in general was nothing special prior to the WCF. Moses Malone did his job, not the prettiest numbers but considering the context of how he was defended it's quite impressive. For that reason alone I would rank Moses above CP3.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 19,233
And1: 15,337
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#48 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:47 am

1) 1993 Hakeem Olajuwon - Non MVP and Non championship makes this season underrated.

2) 2020 James Harden - 2019 and 2020 are his best seasons, and seasons where I think his play generally transfers over into the post season.

3) 1982 Moses Malone - Low sample size damns his PS numbers, but I'm fairly certain he was a better player than in his finals year.

4)2018 Chris Paul - I think he's simply a higher caliber of player than anyone else. Elite ball management and some great offensive results makes it seem likely he punches above his boxscore stats.

5)2005 Tracy McGrady - Pretty much a prime season for McGrady. Hayes is a close mention, and his defensive impact was certainly felt on San Diego - but so was McGrady's on Houston's offense (they went from 24th to 15th rank in offense, so a very tangible jump).

Not a fan of Hayes offense. I like Ming but I'd probably put him at 7th here.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 19,233
And1: 15,337
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#49 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:07 pm

McGrady is kind of sick in 05. Might bump him over Paul.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 17,146
And1: 12,710
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#50 » by 70sFan » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:03 pm

1. 1992/93 Hakeem Olajuwon - GOAT level peak, clear choice to me.

2. 1981/82 Moses Malone - worse offensively than Harden, but clearly better on defense, anchored terrible supporting cast to the playoffs.

3. 2019/20 James Harden - his best defensive season in Houston and probably his most consistent postseason run offensively.

4. 2004/05 Tracy McGrady - not a fan of his, but excellent player nonetheless.

5. 2017/18 Chris Paul - could be higher than Tracy without injuries, I don't think rookie Hayes was better player than close to prime Paul.

HM: 1969 Elvin Hayes
User avatar
Jaivl
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,137
And1: 4,488
Joined: Jan 28, 2014
Location: Lugo, Spain
Contact:
   

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#51 » by Jaivl » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:19 pm

Jaivl wrote:
Colbinii wrote:My approach to this isn't "who had the better season"--its which players am I most likely to win with or which players increase my odds of winning the most.

Can't increase the odds that much when you can't play half the conference finals, the finals and 20 other games. Certainly not more than an All-NBA caliber player, I'd say.

1) 1993 Hakeem Olajuwon
2) 2019 James Harden
3) 1982 Moses Malone
4) 2005 Tracy McGrady
5) 1969 Elvin Hayes

Explanation to come. 18 Paul would be there if healthy, 19 is narrowly out.

Scratch that!

1) 1993 Hakeem Olajuwon (+6.50)
good player

2) 2019 James Harden (+5.00)
Although I have Kawhi and Curry a tiny bit higher on CORP I voted him for POY, if I recall correctly. For a player that's supposed to choke on the playoffs, he was the best player on the floor on the most pivotal series. It's not remembered enough that that series went to the Warriors by less than 2 points per game, actually closer than 2018, and he clearly outplayed Curry while doing so.

3) 1982 Moses Malone (+4.50)
Their magical run happened in 1981, but in 1982 Moses' imprint can be felt deeper. An offense carried by a huge control of the possession, both on the boards and by not losing balls, and well... Moses added like 7 offensive rebounds per game and... a whole lot of not passing the ball? (I guess that helps with not losing it). Okay defense as well.

4) 2005 Tracy McGrady (+4.00)
That's still prime T-Mac for me. Went bananas on the playoffs against... huh... Dallas, but Howard and Dampier were actually good defenders! Not as good as a defender as in his younger years, but still a monster offensive presence which I rate similarly to peak Carter.

5) 2018 Chris Paul (+3.10)
So I ran the numbers estimating Paul to lose 4 postseason games and he does edge Hayes by a tiny amount. Sorry, Elvin! Hope you can forgive me.
Maf wrote:I'd undestand if anyone had KG outside top ten PF's. Having him top five all-time? Often I jokingly rank Kyle Korver as the GOAT but I never try to fake serious discussion about it.

ShawnKemp96 wrote:Infact he made a lot more steals than the statisticians think.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,840
And1: 9,400
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#52 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:23 pm

CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 17,146
And1: 12,710
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#53 » by 70sFan » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:30 pm

Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

I wouldn't have him in Suns top 5.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,840
And1: 9,400
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#54 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:34 pm

70sFan wrote:
Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

I wouldn't have him in Suns top 5.


2021 isn't valid for this projec so I am not including that.

Assuming a deep run this year with the current cast he is comfortable top 5 for me.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
User avatar
Odinn21
Veteran
Posts: 2,983
And1: 2,281
Joined: May 19, 2019
 

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#55 » by Odinn21 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:38 pm

Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

I wouldn't have him in Suns top 5.


2021 isn't valid for this projec so I am not including that.

Assuming a deep run this year with the current cast he is comfortable top 5 for me.

The Suns had quite a deep great/elite players through their history. I don’t want to spoil the discussion of that thread in here but I very much doubt that 35+ yo Paul would be top 5 for the Suns.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
User avatar
Jaivl
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,137
And1: 4,488
Joined: Jan 28, 2014
Location: Lugo, Spain
Contact:
   

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#56 » by Jaivl » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:40 pm

Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

I wouldn't have him in Suns top 5.


2021 isn't valid for this projec so I am not including that.

Assuming a deep run this year with the current cast he is comfortable top 5 for me.

Would he? I'd say Nash, Barkley, KJ and Westphal are locks, with an excellent case for Stat, Marion, Hornacek, Nance... and not that far off Dragic either?
Maf wrote:I'd undestand if anyone had KG outside top ten PF's. Having him top five all-time? Often I jokingly rank Kyle Korver as the GOAT but I never try to fake serious discussion about it.

ShawnKemp96 wrote:Infact he made a lot more steals than the statisticians think.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,840
And1: 9,400
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#57 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:50 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
70sFan wrote:I wouldn't have him in Suns top 5.


2021 isn't valid for this projec so I am not including that.

Assuming a deep run this year with the current cast he is comfortable top 5 for me.

The Suns had quite a deep great/elite players through their history. I don’t want to spoil the discussion of that thread in here but I very much doubt that 35+ yo Paul would be top 5 for the Suns.


Paul can't be in the discussion for that thread since 2021 isn't available.

What order are you going in? Alphabetically by what?
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 19,233
And1: 15,337
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#58 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 pm

Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

Hm..I suppose he does have a chance to make the Seattle team.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,840
And1: 9,400
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#59 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:45 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

Hm..I suppose he does have a chance to make the Seattle team.


What happens when the Timberwolves move to Seattle?
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
User avatar
Jaivl
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,137
And1: 4,488
Joined: Jan 28, 2014
Location: Lugo, Spain
Contact:
   

Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Rockets 

Post#60 » by Jaivl » Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:50 pm

Colbinii wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Colbinii wrote:CP3 looking like a top 5 player for every franchise he has ever been on.

Hm..I suppose he does have a chance to make the Seattle team.


What happens when the Timberwolves move to Seattle?

And they hang Ricky's jersey from the rafters? :oops: please stop :oops:
Maf wrote:I'd undestand if anyone had KG outside top ten PF's. Having him top five all-time? Often I jokingly rank Kyle Korver as the GOAT but I never try to fake serious discussion about it.

ShawnKemp96 wrote:Infact he made a lot more steals than the statisticians think.

Return to Player Comparisons