2013 Miami Heat: Carry job?

[letskissbro]

Idk if I'd go that far. It's honestly hard to call anything short of like a 2018 Cavs situation a carry job. At the very least I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the help LeBron received from the 2012-2014 Heat falls far short of the superteam label they got slapped with and by the playoffs they were on par or below other supporting casts historically. I don't even know if I'd even call them better support than the Bucks the last three years considering their winning margins with Giannis off the court.

The term 'superteam' is honestly the dumbest **** thing to come out of the NBA. It's a completely meaningless, cartoonish label that is only used to vilify players and discredit their accomplishments. The number of current/former 20 ppg scorers a team has doesn't determine how good they are.

We can differentiate historic, "unfair" levels of help without using a rigid set of criteria to place them in their own special category. KD's Warriors and Nets stand alone at the top. Bird's Celtics, Magic's Lakers, and some of the 90s bulls teams are right below that. Past that you could argue a few more but the Heat would be pretty far down the list.

Q: If a player who looks like a star on an average/bad team isn't good enough to be a #1 or #2 on a contender, and their skillset isn't conducive to them being an elite third option, then what makes them better than someone actually suited to that role like a highly specialized elite role player (such as Tyson Chandler or Clint Capela)?

Likewise, if a supporting cast doesn't compliment their best player's skillset and doesn't hold up with them off the court, then what makes them elite?

The Heat would've been better off with a defensive specialist than Bosh and the Cavs would've been better with a 3&D wing role player + bench depth over Love. They'd be better teams but wouldn't have to deal with idiotic superteam accusations. How does that make sense?

[Ron Swanson]

Can't wait for the inevitable "Was the 2017 Warriors a carry job by KD?" thread. As many people have already touched on, this idea that Wade stopped being a superstar level guy immediately when the Heat starting winning championships is such a persistent and obvious pro-Lebron narrative/myth. 2013 was legitimately one of the best and most tailor-made supporting casts a superstar has ever had en route to a title. If you're going to cite on/off data to insinuate that Wade dropped off heavily in those playoffs (-14.5) then that forces you to admit that 2012 postseason Wade was an absolute superstar impact guy still (Miami +10.2 net-rating on, -1.2 net-rating off).

But of course, you see people arguing box and efficiency stats in some years, and net-rating arguments in others, because hey, gotta fit that narrative right? And as VanWest posted above, the 2013 Heat had a +5.4 (weird because I'm actually seeing +7 from B-ballRef) Lebron off-court rating throughout the postseason, which by using the same logic would absolutely disintegrate any "carry job" argument when a team posts a +5 net rating (2021 Bucks and Suns were +5.7 and +5.9 in the RS) with their best player sitting on the bench. The only "carry job" arguments in Lebron's career are the 2007 and 2018 Cavs. Just stop with the rest of this nonsense.

[falcolombardi]

Can't wait for the inevitable "Was the 2017 Warriors a carry job by KD?" thread. As many people have already touched on, this idea that Wade stopped being a superstar level guy immediately when the Heat starting winning championships is such a persistent and obvious pro-Lebron narrative/myth. 2013 was legitimately one of the best and most tailor-made supporting casts a superstar has ever had en route to a title. If you're going to cite on/off data to insinuate that Wade dropped off heavily in those playoffs (-14.5) then that forces you to admit that 2012 postseason Wade was an absolute superstar impact guy still (Miami +10.2 net-rating on, -1.2 net-rating off).

But of course, you see people arguing box and efficiency stats in some years, and net-rating arguments in others, because hey, gotta fit that narrative right? And as VanWest posted above, the 2013 Heat had a +5.4 (weird because I'm actually seeing +7 from B-ballRef) Lebron off-court rating throughout the postseason, which by using the same logic would absolutely disintegrate any "carry job" argument when a team posts a +5 net rating (2021 Bucks and Suns were +5.7 and +5.9 in the RS) with their best player sitting on the bench. The only "carry job" arguments in Lebron's career are the 2007 and 2018 Cavs. Just stop with the rest of this nonsense.

not after winning titles, after his 2013 imjury

wade in this playoffs had 16 points on below league average efficiency

awful +/- data, the wade and lebron minutes were the worst of. all pairs, lebron + bosh/allen/birdman/etc all had much better results

to put in perspective how much the injury affected him
wade has the worst free throw rate of how career up to 2016. it had been .350 at worst all his career when suddendly it became .250

any argument for calling wade a superstar those specific playoffs hinges on name recognition rather than actual play

[colts18]

Russell had 3-4 higher win shares champ rate(as you could call it ring shares) than 2013 James. As Homecourt posted 2012 was 0,32 better than 2013's 0,30.

Far from carry job, that team could still make the finals without Lebron; 2012 was more of a carry-job because of injuries and Wade's issues.

The Heat were not making the finals without LeBron in any of those years. That's completely laughable to suggest.

Let's say LeBron gets replaced by an average SF. We'll name him Andrew Wiggins. What are the results?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They likely lose to Indiana without LeBron

vs Boston:
They lose in 5

2013:
vs Chicago:
50/50 series

vs Indiana:
Indiana destroys them


What if LeBron was replaced by a good Small Forward like Carmelo Anthony?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They might win

vs Boston:
Lose in 6 games

2013:
vs Chicago:
They probably win

vs Indiana:
Lose in 6. Indiana is a better team


I don't see how the Heat make the finals those years without LeBron. We saw what happened to the Heat when LeBron left. They went 37-45 with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and also adding Deng, Whiteside, and Dragic. The Heat w/o LeBron are a 8th seed during the Heatles era.

[kayess]

I really fear for where you guys live if you think 2013 Bron being a carry job is some conspiracy being cooked up to prop up James, and not a legitimate stance. If you're paranoid about that, I'd bet the farm you're paranoid about vaccines being filled with 5g chips too lmao.

I don't really like the term carry job because even the best examples (the Duncan and Hakeem years), it was clear the role players stepped up pretty well and did their jobs. The widest usage would be "One guy was so much clearly better than the others", which a ton of casuals take to mean just scoring (hence Kawhi '19 or Kobe '09-'10 mentions), completely ignoring the other facets of the game.

That said, 2013 James comes real close. Yes, the role players shot well... but remind me, who created most of their open shots again? The only one of those shooters who could reliably create his own shot was Allen, and was very limited because he was up there in age and could run around screens for so long. That's why the 1996 comparison with Jordan was so disingenuous. Team was built on defense and offensive rebounding (aside from Jordan ofc), so quoting the TS% is not the same.

Also, pretty clear who is either:
a) a complete moron
b) legally blind
c) is agenda driven
d) did not watch the games whatsoever

or some combination of the 4 because of their opinion on 2013 Wade and Bosh. It's extremely well documented how bad Wade being on the floor was for the Heat (and yes, that was injury-driven). You were already shown screenshots; you only need to watch clips from the series to confirm what was said.

Bosh made Hibbert look like Wilt, does literally no one remember this? Yes, he was probably the best big at blowing up PNRs at the time, but his size was exploited mercilessly in the ECF, the Finals, both on the boards and in the post. He was getting skewered for this. Duncan had that 23 point half against him in Game 6 which would've been an ATG closeout if not for the **** at the end there.

I do think guys are going overboard with the 2012 LeBron love, because Wade was still good, but he clearly wasn't superstar level (like, night and day difference vs. 2011 Wade, or the true best player on the team, 2012 Bron) so I can somewhat understand it

[AMW27]

The Heat were able to win the 2013 title with Wade and Bosh not performing anywhere near a superstar or star in the playoffs. That stands out.


You can make a case jrue Holiday in the 2021 playoffs was better than Wade and Bosh in the 2013 playoffs.

[feyki]

Russell had 3-4 higher win shares champ rate(as you could call it ring shares) than 2013 James. As Homecourt posted 2012 was 0,32 better than 2013's 0,30.

Far from carry job, that team could still make the finals without Lebron; 2012 was more of a carry-job because of injuries and Wade's issues.

The Heat were not making the finals without LeBron in any of those years. That's completely laughable to suggest.

Let's say LeBron gets replaced by an average SF. We'll name him Andrew Wiggins. What are the results?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They likely lose to Indiana without LeBron

vs Boston:
They lose in 5

2013:
vs Chicago:
50/50 series

vs Indiana:
Indiana destroys them


What if LeBron was replaced by a good Small Forward like Carmelo Anthony?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They might win

vs Boston:
Lose in 6 games

2013:
vs Chicago:
They probably win

vs Indiana:
Lose in 6. Indiana is a better team


I don't see how the Heat make the finals those years without LeBron. We saw what happened to the Heat when LeBron left. They went 37-45 with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and also adding Deng, Whiteside, and Dragic. The Heat w/o LeBron are a 8th seed during the Heatles era.

2012 and 2014 not related with my comment. I also stated 2012 was more of a carry-job. 2014 was a one-man run, to me. Nobody didn't play anything besides Lebron; even didn't want to play.

But to the 2013, Heat had +13 average in their 4 wins against the Pacers. If we count that even with just +10, Lebron was not a more than +7 player per game that year(within the rules it's GOAT level,btw; not a fair comp to post 2016). Wiggins was not a average SRS player anytime in his career. If you replace Lebron with X(Average SRS PLYR), they winning about the +4/5 in those 4 games.

Carmelo point is just sounds out of mind. Melo was +3/4 player that year. Only a few SRS drops wouldn't take any ATG teams to lose to not a 50W team(or barely).

[LukaTheGOAT]

Using AuPM/G, we can actually get a decent estimate.


In the last 24 years, fourteen No. 2’s — the second-best playoff performer on a team — have posted an AuPM of +4.0 or better. An incredible nine of those teams won titles.

The 2nd best player on the Heat in AuPM was at 1.9 (Wade was at 1.2).

Based off this I would say that Lebron's 2nd best player didn't player didn't play extradionary. A +3 or better is the equivalent of a top-15 player in the league or generally All-NBA level impact, which it does not seem like he had.

On average since 1997 (excluding 2021), championship leading casts have had a PS Cast (Relative AuPM value of the 2nd through the 8th-best player on a team, among players who logged at least 40 percent of team’s minutes. Value is relative to +0.75.) with a AuPM/G of 3.7.

Lebron's PS Cast in 2013 was a 2.3 which is well below the average.

There have been 5 PS Casts that have won championships in this timeframe that have had weaker PS casts next to their #1 guy in that timeframe (In paranthesees will be the player rated the highest by AuPM). That would be the 2003 Spurs (Duncan), the 2005 Spurs (Manu), 2011 Mavs (Dirk), 2000 Lakers (Shaq), and 2006 Heat (Wade).

You can adjust for the quality of competition in your head and how some years historic teams might lose in the championships based on their oppoent, and maybe I can do a follow-up post of the people who each of them played in the Finals.

But yeah, make of what you will with this information.

[homecourtloss]

Using AuPM/G, we can actually get a decent estimate.


In the last 24 years, fourteen No. 2’s — the second-best playoff performer on a team — have posted an AuPM of +4.0 or better. An incredible nine of those teams won titles.

The 2nd best player on the Heat in AuPM was at 1.9 (Wade was at 1.2).

Based off this I would say that Lebron's 2nd best player didn't player didn't play extradionary. A +3 or better is the equivalent of a top-15 player in the league or generally All-NBA level impact, which it does not seem like he had.

On average since 1997 (excluding 2021), championship leading casts have had a PS Cast (Relative AuPM value of the 2nd through the 8th-best player on a team, among players who logged at least 40 percent of team’s minutes. Value is relative to +0.75.) with a AuPM/G of 3.7.

Lebron's PS Cast in 2013 was a 2.3 which is well below the average.

There have been 5 PS Casts that have won championships in this timeframe that have had weaker PS casts next to their #1 guy in that timeframe (In paranthesees will be the player rated the highest by AuPM). That would be the 2003 Spurs (Duncan), the 2005 Spurs (Manu), 2011 Mavs (Dirk), 2000 Lakers (Shaq), and 2006 Heat (Wade).

You can adjust for the quality of competition in your head and how some years historic teams might lose in the championships based on their oppoent, and maybe I can do a follow-up post of the people who each of them played in the Finals.

But yeah, make of what you will with this information.

Thank you for this. Do you have a link to the AuPM/g numbers and are you using Taylor’s?

[LukaTheGOAT]

Using AuPM/G, we can actually get a decent estimate.


In the last 24 years, fourteen No. 2’s — the second-best playoff performer on a team — have posted an AuPM of +4.0 or better. An incredible nine of those teams won titles.

The 2nd best player on the Heat in AuPM was at 1.9 (Wade was at 1.2).

Based off this I would say that Lebron's 2nd best player didn't player didn't play extradionary. A +3 or better is the equivalent of a top-15 player in the league or generally All-NBA level impact, which it does not seem like he had.

On average since 1997 (excluding 2021), championship leading casts have had a PS Cast (Relative AuPM value of the 2nd through the 8th-best player on a team, among players who logged at least 40 percent of team’s minutes. Value is relative to +0.75.) with a AuPM/G of 3.7.

Lebron's PS Cast in 2013 was a 2.3 which is well below the average.

There have been 5 PS Casts that have won championships in this timeframe that have had weaker PS casts next to their #1 guy in that timeframe (In paranthesees will be the player rated the highest by AuPM). That would be the 2003 Spurs (Duncan), the 2005 Spurs (Manu), 2011 Mavs (Dirk), 2000 Lakers (Shaq), and 2006 Heat (Wade).

You can adjust for the quality of competition in your head and how some years historic teams might lose in the championships based on their oppoent, and maybe I can do a follow-up post of the people who each of them played in the Finals.

But yeah, make of what you will with this information.

Thank you for this. Do you have a link to the AuPM/g numbers and are you using Taylor’s?

Yes. You have to be a Patreon to access them but they are here

https://backpicks.com/2021/07/15/playoff-plus-minus-part-iv-supporting-casts-ensembles/

[Sign5]

As usual lebron stans diminishing and downplaying Wade and Bosh to prop him as if he dragged lottery fodder teams and 2 HOFs, one a top 20. Wade was injured but yes he was still treated as a star, hell he got Allstar attention til retirement just out of respect for his game. Thus, he diverted attention and one thing that was factual was Wade routinely coming in the clutch. He was injured and gimpy bit he 100% made huge impactful plays that didn't translate to scoring.

Lebron had ample help.

[LukaTheGOAT]

As usual lebron stans diminishing and downplaying Wade and Bosh to prop him as if he dragged lottery fodder teams and 2 HOFs, one a top 20. Wade was injured but yes he was still treated as a star, hell he got Allstar attention til retirement just out of respect for his game. Thus, he diverted attention and one thing that was factual was Wade routinely coming in the clutch. He was injured and gimpy bit he 100% made huge impactful plays that didn't translate to scoring.

Lebron had ample help.

The term carry-job is honestly subjective.

People have posted the basic box-score numbers, but the impact numbers don't necessarily indicate one of a true all-star.

Wade had a AuPM of 1.2, which is indicative of a clearly positive player, but not really a star.

Wade had a -0.99 PIPM which is just a role player according to the PIPM scale.

These type of stats that use plus-minus data to see the type of data players are having in the PS, instead of just relying on basic box-score stats (which weren't excellent).

Next, Wade had a 3.1 RAPTOR. For reference, that's a clearly positive scale, but generally is more reminiscient of a strongly positive player, but far from a certain all-star.

Wade can still be considered a clutch player that made impactful plays in timely moments and still not be considered as a no-brainer star. For a guy that plays like an absolute star, it is odd he doesn't show up like one in any of the impact metrics, and my from what I recall, it wasn't insanely clear. All this paints a fuyzzy picture.

If anything, I think the role guys on the Heat are probably more deserving of being hailed as underrated rather than Wade just being a vitctim of people downplaying his game.

[falcolombardi]

As usual lebron stans diminishing and downplaying Wade and Bosh to prop him as if he dragged lottery fodder teams and 2 HOFs, one a top 20. Wade was injured but yes he was still treated as a star, hell he got Allstar attention til retirement just out of respect for his game. Thus, he diverted attention and one thing that was factual was Wade routinely coming in the clutch. He was injured and gimpy bit he 100% made huge impactful plays that didn't translate to scoring.

Lebron had ample help.

this is the second time i hear : "he was still treated as a star" as an argument and i really dont get it, what extra attention was a bad 3 point shooter like wade receiving?

out os curiosity what do you think about Durant help against bucks? at least harden actually provided spacing

[Sign5]

As usual lebron stans diminishing and downplaying Wade and Bosh to prop him as if he dragged lottery fodder teams and 2 HOFs, one a top 20. Wade was injured but yes he was still treated as a star, hell he got Allstar attention til retirement just out of respect for his game. Thus, he diverted attention and one thing that was factual was Wade routinely coming in the clutch. He was injured and gimpy bit he 100% made huge impactful plays that didn't translate to scoring.

Lebron had ample help.

this is the second time i hear : "he was still treated as a star" as an argument and i really dont get it, what extra attention was a bad 3 point shooter like wade receiving?

out os curiosity what do you think about Durant help against bucks? at least harden actually provided spacing

It means multiple eyes on him when he gets the ball and makes a play, it means defenders actually did still honor Wade instead of doubling Bron. Cause if Bronny didn't have help he would've got cut off more than spurs cared to do it.

These two games also exist and adding to my point. Wade was injured and gimpy but still came through in the end.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Thus no where near a "carryjob". What's funny is Heat are an Allen 3 away from not even winning at all but incessant lebronies will try and have you believe he averaged 40 10 10 against a KD GSW team.

[PistolPeteJR]

“Carried himself like a superstar” to denote a superstar’s teammate(s) is the new GOAT argument to discredit any superstar’s all-time performances lmao.

[falcolombardi]

“Carried himself like a superstar” to denote a superstar’s teammate(s) is the new GOAT argument to discredit any superstar’s all-time performances lmao.

up there with listing hall of famer teammates without the context that they were washed, at their late 30's or injured

[Sportsfans21]

As usual lebron stans diminishing and downplaying Wade and Bosh to prop him as if he dragged lottery fodder teams and 2 HOFs, one a top 20. Wade was injured [b]but yes he was still treated as a star[/b], hell he got Allstar attention til retirement just out of respect for his game. Thus, he diverted attention and one thing that was factual was Wade routinely coming in the clutch. He was injured and gimpy bit he 100% made huge impactful plays that didn't translate to scoring.

Lebron had ample help.

Are you sure?

I wasn't suggesting Wade played like a superstar; rather, because he still operated like one and was effective doing so at times that meant teams guarded him like one which despite what you guys have said did help alleviate some of the pressure from Lebron. If we just removed Wade from those playoffs or replaced him with a random league average SG role player, not only do Heat not win the championship I doubt they even get past Pacers. Having a 2nd ball handler to draw that kind of attention matters.

Also, if we're going to kill Wade for his performance then we have to do the same with Scottie too. He wasn't a superstar those playoffs either.

but wade is a weak shooter, teams are not too worried about him off ball, and was very mediocre with the ball too (15 points in below league average efficiency)

i doubt teams were guarding him tightly off ball when lebron had the basketball

lebron + wade has basically neutral net rating those playoffs..... lebron + other starters were all better through the playoffs, wade was not exactly helping lebron much compared to other teammates

pippen was inneficient but he has much bigger impact defensively than wade and fwiw his +/- those playoffs was better

This is how teams were playing Wade in that playoff run when he was on the perimeter (he spent a lot of time lurking the baseline, but with how injured he was it's not exactly like he was a threat there). Look at the paint being completely packed forcing Lebron to take a jumper, and also note that it's actually Wade's man here (Lance Stephenson) that's contesting his shot



Another example of Wade's man in the paint forcing Lebron into a jumper



Now look at this one - Wade is off the floor, and Lebron actually has space to attack! This collapses the defense and he sets up a wide open shot for Haslem

Watch on YouTube

[ccameron]

Russell had 3-4 higher win shares champ rate(as you could call it ring shares) than 2013 James. As Homecourt posted 2012 was 0,32 better than 2013's 0,30.

Far from carry job, that team could still make the finals without Lebron; 2012 was more of a carry-job because of injuries and Wade's issues.

The Heat were not making the finals without LeBron in any of those years. That's completely laughable to suggest.

Let's say LeBron gets replaced by an average SF. We'll name him Andrew Wiggins. What are the results?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They likely lose to Indiana without LeBron

vs Boston:
They lose in 5

2013:
vs Chicago:
50/50 series

vs Indiana:
Indiana destroys them


What if LeBron was replaced by a good Small Forward like Carmelo Anthony?

2012:
vs Indiana:
They might win

vs Boston:
Lose in 6 games

2013:
vs Chicago:
They probably win

vs Indiana:
Lose in 6. Indiana is a better team


I don't see how the Heat make the finals those years without LeBron. We saw what happened to the Heat when LeBron left. They went 37-45 with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and also adding Deng, Whiteside, and Dragic. The Heat w/o LeBron are a 8th seed during the Heatles era.

Bolded is completely disingenuous. It was not just Lebron that left, as if he alone made them even a playoff team. Bosh had blood clots by Allstar break. Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Chris Anderson left or retired. Goran Dragic wasn't added until towards the end of the season. The only constant was Wade, every other position was constantly rotating. Whiteside didn't even have the (false) hype yet. It's totally misleading to say that change was just because of Lebron, it was much more than that. With Bosh, that would actually still have been a really good team. They made it within 1 game of the ECF in 2016 even without Bosh, with him that would have been a very good team.

And that's after the Heatles era. During that time, they are definitely contenders. Without Lebron, they could afford to get some good players around Wade and Bosh. That would have been a pretty strong core. They aren't making it to the finals 4 years in a row, but they would have been contenders every year they were together.

Also, they may even have been better off in 2011 getting more talent and a deeper team around Bosh and Wade. The fit with Wade and Lebron didn't quite work yet, and Lebron certainly wasn't much help in the finals. Not later on, but at least that year they probably would have had a better shot with Wade/Bosh and a deeper team.