Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards

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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#21 » by Matt15 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:20 pm

Peak Davis is closer to KG than he is to Gasol.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#22 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:28 pm

Stalwart wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Strepbacter wrote:
You, GSP, and feyki are obviously just Kobe guys trying to minimize him! Yeah. That's it.

Of course, we all know that! :D

I really like Pau and I think he is underrated historically (I have him clearly over Webber, Amar'e or Bosh historically) but Davis is weak-MVP level at his very best. He's inconsistent and lacks durability, but he peajed clearly higher than Pau ever did.

That said, I don't see Davis case over the immortal 6 and Giannis has clearly better career up to now.


On what basis do you have Pau over Webber?

He's better and more efficient scorer, inarguably a better shooter, comparable rebounder and far better defender. Webber's impact metrics are also consistently weak throughout his prime.

I'd like to hear what's Webber's case over Pau to be honest. Do you have him higher because of higher ppg numbers? Or because of the early 2000s Kings success? Then you should remember that these Kings teams were consistently great without him. He wasn't even their clear best player.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#23 » by Stalwart » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:00 pm

70sFan wrote:
Stalwart wrote:
70sFan wrote:Of course, we all know that! :D

I really like Pau and I think he is underrated historically (I have him clearly over Webber, Amar'e or Bosh historically) but Davis is weak-MVP level at his very best. He's inconsistent and lacks durability, but he peajed clearly higher than Pau ever did.

That said, I don't see Davis case over the immortal 6 and Giannis has clearly better career up to now.


On what basis do you have Pau over Webber?

He's better and more efficient scorer, inarguably a better shooter, comparable rebounder and far better defender. Webber's impact metrics are also consistently weak throughout his prime.

I'd like to hear what's Webber's case over Pau to be honest. Do you have him higher because of higher ppg numbers? Or because of the early 2000s Kings success? Then you should remember that these Kings teams were consistently great without him. He wasn't even their clear best player.


Well when I look at their stats I see Webber averaging more rebounds in their prime(even led the league one year), more steals, the same amount of blocks, and a significantly higher PPG avg. Yes, Pau had a higher FG% but that was on 17-20ppg instead of 24-27ppg. Its much easier to have a higher FG% when you're not being asked to create you're own shot so frequently. When Kobe is creating your shots for you it naturally allows you to have a better fg%.

And Webber was indeed the best player on the Kings. Its easy to look back and trying to claim otherwise based on "metrics" but thats revisionists history. At the time he was universally considered their franchise player. He got a TON of credit for turning the franchise around. And he was an mvp candidate.

Also, in the 2007-08 season the Lakers had almost the same record with Kwame Brown as they did with Pau Gasol on the team. Does that invalidate Pau abilities and production? I eould say no.

And Pau also got heavily criticized for playing "soft" in 2008. KG bullied him the whole series. Probably cost the Lakers a 3peat.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#24 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:56 pm

Stalwart wrote:Well when I look at their stats I see Webber averaging more rebounds in their prime(even led the league one year),

Webber played a lot of minutes in the fastest team in the league in 1999, that's why. Look at the rate, he's 19th in the league in 1999 in TRB%. Let's look at their primes:

1997-03 Webber: 7.7 ORB%, 21.5 DRB%, 14.7 TRB%
2006-12 Gasol: 9.1 ORB%, 20.9 DRB%, 15.1 TRB%

These numbers are comparable, Webber has no advantage and if anything, Gasol seems to have slight edge. Gasol also looks better in postseason for what it's worth.

more steals, the same amount of blocks,

It's true, but there is so much more on defense than blocks and steals. Gasol was better rim protector, better post defender, smarter help defender and his rotations were more consistent.

and a significantly higher PPG avg. Yes, Pau had a higher FG% but that was on 17-20ppg instead of 24-27ppg.

Again, what you're saying is true but we should ask whether Webber shooting that much is a good idea. We do have his impact metrics and they don't love him so maybe it'd be better for him to shoot less but more efficient? It's not like he didn't play with a lot of offensive talent.

Its much easier to have a higher FG% when you're not being asked to create you're own shot so frequently. When Kobe is creating your shots for you it naturally allows you to have a better fg%.

Thankfully we have seasons when Gasol didn't play with Kobe and when Webber scored on similar volume as Memphis Gasol:

2007 Gasol: 20.8 ppg on +5.2 TS%

1997 Webber: 20.1 ppg on +1.8 TS% (by far Webber's most efficient full season)
1999 Webber: 20.0 ppg on -2.0 TS%
2003 Webber: 23.0 ppg on -3.4 TS%

What's the reason to believe that Webber could reach Gasol's efficiency in any volume? Gasol was highly efficient scorer before he played with Kobe and after he left LAL. Webber wasn't efficient in Washington, he wasn't efficient in Kings and wasn't efficient after he left Sacramento. He didn't need to take as much shots when he played in Sacramento, they had enough talent to fight in tough WC without him.

EDIT: forgot to add - here is the number of assisted 2P FGA:

1997-03 Webber: 60.6%
2006-12 Gasol: 56.6%

Gasol created his shots more than Webber.

And Webber was indeed the best player on the Kings. Its easy to look back and trying to claim otherwise based on "metrics" but thats revisionists history. At the time he was universally considered their franchise player. He got a TON of credit for turning the franchise around. And he was an mvp candidate.

I know that he was quite media darling back then, but I don't understand what it is supposed to prove. About MVP candidacy - Webber was serious MVP candidate only once in his career - he finished 4th in 2001. It was related to his massive volume stats, but again - he wasn't efficient and his team was actually better offensively without him on the floor.

Also, in the 2007-08 season the Lakers had almost the same record with Kwame Brown as they did with Pau Gasol on the team. Does that invalidate Pau abilities and production? I eould say no.

You are wrong:

Lakers with Gasol: 22-4 (I excluded one game when he played 2 minutes), 69 wins pace
Lakers before Gasol trade: 30-16, 53 wins pace
Lakers after Gasol trade without Gasol: 6-4, 49 wins pace

There is a massive improvement with Gasol arrival.

And Pau also got heavily criticized for playing "soft" in 2008. KG bullied him the whole series. Probably cost the Lakers a 3peat.

In what way did he "bully" him? Garnett had quite good rebounding series and I remember him being a key contributor on defense, but he didn't limit Gasol's scoring and Pau also reduced Garnett's offensive output successfully. I'd have to rewatch this series to see how much Gasol's soft play was related to Garnett's rebounding, but other than that I don't see any other evidence of him costing Lakers a title.

Remember that the same soft player contained peak Dwight in the next finals and outplayed Garnett in 2010 rematch. I think that Gasol "softness" was more related to his nationality than actual basketball play. I hate to say that, but European players weren't liked as much back then.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#25 » by feyki » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:15 am

ATG level :

19 AD
20 AD
21 AD

MVP level :

18 AD
17 AD
15 AD

All-Nba level :

10 Pau
11 Pau
16 AD
09 Pau
14 AD
08 Pau
12 Pau



All-Star level :

15 Pau
04/07 Pau
13 Pau
14 Pau

.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#26 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:52 am

feyki wrote:ATG level :

19 AD
20 AD
21 AD

What's "ATG" about 2021 Davis? He missed half of the season and wasn't anything special when he played. I'd take quite a few Pau seasons over 2021 Davis.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#27 » by feyki » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:20 am

70sFan wrote:
feyki wrote:ATG level :

19 AD
20 AD
21 AD

What's "ATG" about 2021 Davis? He missed half of the season and wasn't anything special when he played. I'd take quite a few Pau seasons over 2021 Davis.


His level of impact, for sure. Just look at the Suns series.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#28 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:28 am

feyki wrote:
70sFan wrote:
feyki wrote:ATG level :

19 AD
20 AD
21 AD

What's "ATG" about 2021 Davis? He missed half of the season and wasn't anything special when he played. I'd take quite a few Pau seasons over 2021 Davis.


His level of impact, for sure. Just look at the Suns series.

I watched it and I fail to see that ATG level of impact. Davis was horrible in game 1, he came back nicely in games 2 and 3, but then he started badly in game 4 as well before the injury. Overall, he has +2.9 on/off for the series, which is nothing special.

It's important to note that Paul also was dealing with injuries in the first round. Suns weren't at their best either when Davis was healthy. To me, two good performances against Suns don't make you ATG level. It's not even a given that Lakers would have won the series with healthy Davis.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#29 » by Eagle4 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:10 am

Lol at Pau being closer to AD, silly statement. AD's glass body is what stops him and Giannis right there with the best of em (by the end of his career).
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#30 » by AdagioPace » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:31 am

Eagle4 wrote:Lol at Pau being closer to AD, silly statement. AD's glass body is what stops him and Giannis right there with the best of em (by the end of his career).


Maybe not silly but a bit ambitious to justify seeing how AD's prime is unfolding.
Both are optimized next to (I hate this expression-->) "First option" but AD's defense is a luxurious asset and not easy to find.

In any case gimme Giannis over AD, Malone. Barkley I'm not sure.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#31 » by feyki » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:06 pm

70sFan wrote:
feyki wrote:
70sFan wrote:What's "ATG" about 2021 Davis? He missed half of the season and wasn't anything special when he played. I'd take quite a few Pau seasons over 2021 Davis.


His level of impact, for sure. Just look at the Suns series.

I watched it and I fail to see that ATG level of impact. Davis was horrible in game 1, he came back nicely in games 2 and 3, but then he started badly in game 4 as well before the injury. Overall, he has +2.9 on/off for the series, which is nothing special.

It's important to note that Paul also was dealing with injuries in the first round. Suns weren't at their best either when Davis was healthy. To me, two good performances against Suns don't make you ATG level. It's not even a given that Lakers would have won the series with healthy Davis.


AD before the injury(first 3 games) - 27 PPG, 9,5 RPG, 3 APG, +7 rOrtg and with DPOY level.

LA before the injury(first 3 games) - +4,0 margin

LA since the injury(last 3 games) - -17,0 margin

.

+2,9 :D , it's just funny.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#32 » by sansterre » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:17 pm

feyki wrote:
70sFan wrote:
feyki wrote:
His level of impact, for sure. Just look at the Suns series.

I watched it and I fail to see that ATG level of impact. Davis was horrible in game 1, he came back nicely in games 2 and 3, but then he started badly in game 4 as well before the injury. Overall, he has +2.9 on/off for the series, which is nothing special.

It's important to note that Paul also was dealing with injuries in the first round. Suns weren't at their best either when Davis was healthy. To me, two good performances against Suns don't make you ATG level. It's not even a given that Lakers would have won the series with healthy Davis.


AD before the injury(first 3 games) - 27 PPG, 9,5 RPG, 3 APG, +7 rOrtg and with DPOY level.

LA before the injury(first 3 games) - +4,0 margin

LA since the injury(last 3 games) - -17,0 margin

.

+2,9 :D , it's just funny.

Game 1: -18 on (39 minutes), +9 off (9 minutes)
Game 2: +6 on (40 minutes), +1 off (8 minutes)
Game 3: +11 on (40 minutes), +3 off (8 minutes)
Game 4: -8 on (19 minutes), +0 off (29 minutes)
Game 5: -30 off
Game 6: -7 on (5 minutes), -6 off (43 minutes)

Off-Court: -23 over 145 minutes -> -7.6 per 48
On-Court: -16 over 143 minutes -> -5.4 per 48
Healthy On-Court: -1 over 119 minutes -> 0 per 48

Your position is basically reliant on one lopsided Game 5. In every other game it's not quite so open and shut.

And AD's struggles with health are a part of his problem. I think AD healthy was better than Pau healthy by a considerable margin, but AD honestly hasn't been healthy nearly as much as one might like.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#33 » by feyki » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:29 pm

sansterre wrote:
feyki wrote:
70sFan wrote:I watched it and I fail to see that ATG level of impact. Davis was horrible in game 1, he came back nicely in games 2 and 3, but then he started badly in game 4 as well before the injury. Overall, he has +2.9 on/off for the series, which is nothing special.

It's important to note that Paul also was dealing with injuries in the first round. Suns weren't at their best either when Davis was healthy. To me, two good performances against Suns don't make you ATG level. It's not even a given that Lakers would have won the series with healthy Davis.


AD before the injury(first 3 games) - 27 PPG, 9,5 RPG, 3 APG, +7 rOrtg and with DPOY level.

LA before the injury(first 3 games) - +4,0 margin

LA since the injury(last 3 games) - -17,0 margin

.

+2,9 :D , it's just funny.

Game 1: -18 on (39 minutes), +9 off (9 minutes)
Game 2: +6 on (40 minutes), +1 off (8 minutes)
Game 3: +11 on (40 minutes), +3 off (8 minutes)
Game 4: -8 on (19 minutes), +0 off (29 minutes)
Game 5: -30 off
Game 6: -7 on (5 minutes), -6 off (43 minutes)

Off-Court: -23 over 145 minutes -> -7.6 per 48
On-Court: -16 over 143 minutes -> -5.4 per 48
Healthy On-Court: -1 over 119 minutes -> 0 per 48

Your position is basically reliant on one lopsided Game 5. In every other game it's not quite so open and shut.

And AD's struggles with health are a part of his problem. I think AD healthy was better than Pau healthy by a considerable margin, but AD honestly hasn't been healthy nearly as much as one might like.


This is why I hate on/off metrics. LA were looking better team than the Suns when AD healthy and LA were out of competition without healthy AD against the Suns. On/off metrics maybe even worse than PER, on measuring the impact.

27/9/3 with almost +10 rOrtg and DPOY level player put his team 8/9 SRS band to overwhelmingly beat the Suns and without his impact the team turned +2 SRS at best and overwhelmingly got beat by the same team.

I don't rank players based on durability, I'd rank them based on peak impact level. So, I would take 21 AD as the ATG year.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#34 » by sansterre » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:36 pm

feyki wrote:I don't rank players based on durability, I'd rank them based on peak impact level.

You're a Bill Walton for GOAT advocate? That's a ballsy position to take, but shine on you crazy diamond :)
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#35 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:31 pm

Davis played two good games vs Suns and one horrible one. Then he was playing badly in the 4 game until he got hurt.

I'm sorry, but I won't give him much credit for two games. He had mediocre RS when he played, he didn't play half of the season and even in short sample in playoffs he was inconsistent and missed games.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#36 » by falcolombardi » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:13 pm

the ultimate goal of basketball is help your team win games and eventually playoffs series

if you play 2 all time great games then are injured for the next 5 your impact was not all time great

is why i would take a lot of Pau seasons over davis ones in spite of davis being a category above when healthy

2021 with half a underperforming regular season and half a play-off series is one of those i wouldnt pick over most pau prime seasons

now, on the topic of whether Pau Gasol was top 10 at any point? i think he has a borderline case in the lakers finals years

between 2008-2010 the only bigs i would clearly favor over him are dirk, duncan, garnett and howard and maybe bosh but is close between those two

the only wing i would prefer clearly would be lebron and maybe Pierce, durant wouldnt be quite there yet

the only guards i would clearly prefer would be chris Paul wade and nash

nash, cp3, dirk, garnett, duncan, howard, garnett, kobe,lebron, Wade are above Pau

then you have pau vs Pierce and ray allen or Carmelo which i think is a closest contest than most think, Pau Gasol was cetrainly outplaying them by 2010 and players like bosh too who are comparable

i think at his best Pau was a top 11-15 player in the league i would want to have which is really damn good
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#37 » by Ron Swanson » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:44 pm

If my goal is to win championships then I'd take 2015-2020 AD alone over the entirety of Pau Gasol's career. Who cares if he misses 10-15 games a year when outside of 2021 he's been healthy in the postseason? And it's not as if Pau was the epitome of regular season durability during his prime either (missed 22, 33, 17, and 16 games in 4 out of 7 seasons as a Laker).
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#38 » by feyki » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:50 am

sansterre wrote:
feyki wrote:I don't rank players based on durability, I'd rank them based on peak impact level.

You're a Bill Walton for GOAT advocate? That's a ballsy position to take, but shine on you crazy diamond :)


I'd consider longevity, for sure. Just didn't want to evaluate players years based on durability and performances drops and form.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#39 » by Outside » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:45 am

Forgetting about the Pau diversion and getting back to the original premise of the thread, I do think it's an interesting question.

An oddity is that neither player fits neatly into the role of power forward. AD does more than Giannis, but AD is most impactful when he plays center. I don't know what the hell to call Giannis position-wise. BBall-ref lists him as "Power Forward, Small Forward, Shooting Guard, and Point Guard." I think they need to add center to the list, because he was the guy guarding Deandre Ayton in the finals.

The first thing I think about with AD is durability/availability. He's been in the league nine years vs eight for Giannis, yet Giannis has 25 more RS games (589 vs 564).

Both are DPOY-level defenders. I'd probably give AD a slight edge, but it's only slight.

Offensively, both are productive scorers. Some of this assessment depends on which years you include. AD was more productive in his first few seasons, but once Giannis reached his prime (2016-17), he's been more productive. AD has good efficiency, but again, once he reached his prime, Giannis has been even better. Giannis has better assists but also higher turnovers. I give Giannis the edge.

I'm making an effort to not let Giannis' performance in the finals influence the assessment too much, but then again, what we saw from him in the finals, on both ends, was potentially transformative and shouldn't be ignored. Ending the point-Giannis experiment and setting him up in the post was devastatingly effective. On the defensive end, he was like a more mobile Gobert, scaring the Jazz from even attempting shots inside of 15 feet and contesting when they dared try. I need to see him do this on a sustained basis against more than just one team, but damn.

As far as awards go, Giannis has two MVPs plus another MVP-level season after that. Davis has been a level below that. AD has been All-NBA 1st team four times, Giannis has been 1st team four times and 2nd team twice.

Overall, I give Giannis the clear edge between the two. As far as where they fit among modern PFs, that depends on how far you go back, plus that's not completely an apples to apples comparison since most other PFs in consideration have the benefit of complete careers while Giannis and AD are still careers in progress.
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Re: Where do you rank Giannis and AD amongst "modern" power forwards 

Post#40 » by SpreeS » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:36 am

1. Duncan
2. Giannis (projected)
3. KG, Dirk
4. Malone, Barkley
5. Pettit
6. Davis (projected)
7. Pau, McHale

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