I think this is our first comparison in the project that both players were part of the data-ball tracking.
These are how they did in Engelmann's rs+ps PI-RAPM numbers for reasonable candidates for this project (might do this every time we have a comparison with such 2 players).
Duncan's RAPM values and top 5/10/20 averages in those seasons;
James' RAPM values and top 5/10/20 averages in those seasons;
Duncan's residuals to top 5/10/20 in direct values;
James' residuals to top 5/10/20 in direct values;
Duncan's residuals to top 5/10/20 in percentages;
James' residuals to top 5/10/20 in percentages;
Now, James' RAPM footprint in 2009-12 & 2015-16 is just massive. As is Duncan's footprint in 2001-05.
James' footprint in 2014 and 2017 is looking similar to Duncan's footprint in 2007. These are also great.
Surely there's more than enough to say James > Duncan in RAPM but I think Duncan holds his own enough to put up a fight for
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Moving onto anomalies in those seasons;
Duncan wasn't fully healthy in 2004 and 2005 seasons.
James had bizarre psychological situations in 2010 and 2011 (I'm not criticising James as "he quit" for 2010 here. It was just obvious that he was distracted and that translated into some performance and impact issues.)
Interestingly both players have 2 not that appealing seasons each. I mean it's very hard to put 2011 James over 2014 James or 2004 Duncan over 2007 Duncan.
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Top 7 seasons for LeBron James;
2012
2013
2009
2016
2014
2010
2011/2017/2020
Top 7 seasons for Tim Duncan;
2003
2002
2007
2001
2005
2006/1999
1999/2004
Some thoughts I have;
- I was expecting any season other than 2002 and 2003 of Duncan to be underrated. 2007 was a season he dominated from start to finish. The Spurs were a 58W team but they were a 63.8 Pythagorean Win team, they had +9.2 NRtg season (which was a mark higher than the 2nd placed Mavs by 1.6), they were top 5 on both ends (#5 on O with +3.3 and #2 on D with -5.9).
The Suns were the only properly strong team they faced in the playoffs. Duncan a 27/14 and 4 blocks series on 60% ts. Surely, it was a weird series with Horry's hip-check, up until that point, Ginobili was having a very rough series with 12/5/4 on 42% ts and had only 1 decent game in 4 games, in those 4 games Duncan carried the Spurs with 29/14 and 3 blocks on 61% ts, and the series was tied at 2-2.
Then the Spurs continued to dominate the competition they faced like they did in the regular season.
It was a very complete season. I mean, in a way, this season was like Magic's 1987 in terms of how it played out and I don't think people would deny 1987 Magic from a top 12 in such comparison.
It also goes to show how Duncan was robbed of greater seasons with multiple injury issues in the 3 prior seasons.
- James' regular season motor and effort got lower after 2014, it got too low in 2018. Yeah, he was still a goat level force in the playoffs but it's very hard to put it on the same level as 2007 Duncan.
- There's a certain appeal of deep postseason runs, James was always in the NBA Finals. But there's a huge discrepancy between the competition Duncan faced in the Western Conference and the competition James faced in the Eastern Conference in the 2nd half of the 2010s.
Duncan was playing his NBA-Finals level opponents in the 2nd round or in the conference finals. I mean, it was such a weird time that the teams with the 2 best records in the league played against each other in the 2nd round in 2006. Duncan had one of his top 3 single playoff series performances against the Mavs, he was 32/12/4/1/3 on 61.5% ts and the reason why we are not looking Duncan's 2006 as we do James' 2018 (not entirely great rs but great ps is what I mean) is that the competition and the playoffs design.
The weighted average NRtg for the teams Duncan faced in the 2nd rounds and in the CFs from 2001 to 2007; 5.4 NRtg (11 series)
The weighted average NRtg for the teams James faced in the 2nd rounds and in the CFs from 2012 to 2018; 3.6 NRtg (14 series)
And the actual level Duncan played against was slightly higher than that 5.4 NRtg mark because 2001-04 Lakers were notorious for underperforming in the regular seasons.
Simply put; I very much doubt that James would have had this many appealing seasons with constant NBA Finals showings if he was playing in the Western Conference of the 2000s.
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I might come back to this post with some footage but I think it's been very extensive enough.
I should just put my rankings right now because I got tired, lol.
1. 2003 Tim Duncan
2. 2012 LeBron James
3. 2013 LeBron James
4. 2009 LeBron James
5. 2002 Tim Duncan
6. 2016 LeBron James
7. 2014 LeBron James
8. 2007 Tim Duncan
9. 2001 Tim Duncan
10. 2010 LeBron James
11. 2017 LeBron James
12. 2005 Tim Duncan
Top 5 is pretty cramped up and close. It was kind of weird to put 2003 Duncan and 2002 Duncan 4 spots apart from each other but this was the top 5 looked the most sensible.
The rest is basically dominated by James because aside from 2007 and 2001, Duncan wasn't healthy enough. My hottest take is that 2005 Duncan was actually that better than 2020 James to make up for missed games. He was having a goat level regular season (very much like 2016 Curry minus the hype) and even though he wasn't 100% in the playoffs, he was still good enough. Many people remember that rough NBA Finals series against the Pistons but Duncan was having a 25/12/3 run until the finals, he was on par with his usual and then even though his efficiency took a dive against the Pistons which was a historically great defense, he still kept the Spurs offense going with his scoring gravity, he was getting doubled nearly every time he touched the ball and his playmaking value was exceptional along with his goat level defense.
