[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan

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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#21 » by Odinn21 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:12 pm

sansterre wrote:Odinn, I'm looking at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZW5UBk5BwcrEhh4mEsWl_H1Y9QGTaMPaT4v6dSEIBIo/ and it lines up pretty reasonably with the bastketball-reference BPM; it has certain seasons as higher (2003 is eye-bleedingly high) but the average between the two is almost identical. The https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/dsmok1/viz/BPMvs_RAPM/BoxPlusMinusvs_14YearRAPM is impressive . . . but I don't know where those numbers are coming from. Where is the data that shows Duncan with a +7.9 RAPM?

It's coming from Engelmann's once publicly open website;
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

The best we can do is this about seeing that page is this at the moment;
http://web.archive.org/web/20150627200148/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

Myers (DSMok1, the creator of BPM on BBRef) modelled BPM 2.0 while checking correlations to Engelmann's RAPM work btw.
http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9689
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#22 » by Dutchball97 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:14 pm

Weird how 2018 is rated so low by RAPM. Even though his effort might not have been as high as it used to be, WS and BPM rate it as arguably even better than any other season in the second Cavs stint and it is hard to deny his 2018 post-season was great by just about any measure. I'm not sure if such a big dissonance between the +- and boxscore stats is normal.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#23 » by No-more-rings » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:18 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:I'd probably go with this.

1. 2012 Lebron- Underrated Lebron season, killed the regular season got his 3rd mvp, broke through and won the title with 4 dominant series, had probably the best game of his career against Boston in game 6 against the league's top defense. People like to dock this version for his jumper being inconsistent but if you watched the playoffs it didn't matter since he couldn't really be guarded anyway.

2. 2009 Lebron- Insane regular season capped off by a goat level playoff run, statistically I think is the goat run for a 3 series run or more

3. 2003 Duncan- Monster 2 way force, driving force for the Spurs on both ends on their way to the title

4. 2013 Lebron- With a stronger finals performance this would be his best season for me, but he showed passiveness and inability to just penetrate the Spurs paint at will, so it's hard to ignore that.

5. 2002 Duncan- Similar season to 03, just a bit worse with his passing I think

6. 2010 Lebron- Lebron left a lot to be desired with how he played against Boston, don't know if it was injury, frustration with teammates, or he just got in his own head I don't know but this seems like a problem that on and off effected Lebron for a number of years

7. 2017 Lebron- By this point Lebron was clearly sacrificing some defense for offense, but was still a positive on that end for sure

8. 2016 Lebron- Goat level finals performance, but don't think his regular season was goat level like some of his others

9. 2014 Lebron- Coasted on defense in the regular season, come postseason seemed a little more worried about how efficient his scoring was than what was necessarily best for the team offense

10. 2018 Lebron- Along with 2017 was his offensive peak, but 2018 in particular Lebron just didn't care about defense, still took a mediocre team to the finals

11. 2001 Duncan- Prefer 01 to his 05-07 years because his motor was higher, and was capable of a higher offensive load from night to night

12. 2007 Duncan- Seemed healthier and more consistent than 04, 05 or 06

Some will wonder why 2020 Lebron isn't on there, but let's be real here he lost at least half a step from his peak years, and it would be more obvious if he was playing with 09-2013 kind of spacing.

I'm not totally confident on the order, but confident in those being the 12 seasons.


2020 lakers had some of the worst spacing in the last decade champions

they shot like 32% from 3

It's not just the spacing, but how defense is played and the type of lineups that are used. Teams go much smaller than they used to making it easier for someone like Lebron to drive.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#24 » by sansterre » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:19 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
sansterre wrote:Odinn, I'm looking at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZW5UBk5BwcrEhh4mEsWl_H1Y9QGTaMPaT4v6dSEIBIo/ and it lines up pretty reasonably with the bastketball-reference BPM; it has certain seasons as higher (2003 is eye-bleedingly high) but the average between the two is almost identical. The https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/dsmok1/viz/BPMvs_RAPM/BoxPlusMinusvs_14YearRAPM is impressive . . . but I don't know where those numbers are coming from. Where is the data that shows Duncan with a +7.9 RAPM?

It's coming from Engelmann's once publicly open website;
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

The best we can do is this about seeing that page is this at the moment;
http://web.archive.org/web/20150627200148/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

Myers (DSMok1, the creator of BPM on BBRef) modelled BPM 2.0 while checking correlations to Engelmann's RAPM work btw.
http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9689

Thanks. But it's infuriating that I can't get individual seasons of data, since that's kind of the point. Sites like this: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-rapm have way lower RAPM numbers for Duncan. At this point I've looked at several different versions of RAPM and most of them line up reasonably well with the BPM of basketball-reference, and the one that appears to love Duncan doesn't seem to have his RAPMs broken down by year. Am I missing something?
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#25 » by Odinn21 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:30 pm

sansterre wrote:Thanks. But it's infuriating that I can't get individual seasons of data, since that's kind of the point. Sites like this: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-rapm have way lower RAPM numbers for Duncan. At this point I've looked at several different versions of RAPM and most of them line up reasonably well with the BPM of basketball-reference, and the one that appears to love Duncan doesn't seem to have his RAPMs broken down by year. Am I missing something?

That Google link has way lower RAPM numbers for all though, not just Duncan.

Found it;
http://web.archive.org/web/20150317061310/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/
You can browse from the left hand side season by season but Engelmann did significant changes in his formula.
(Those '91-'96 numbers are estimations based on box numbers, fyi.)
If you calculate Duncan's numbers from 2000 to 2013, his RAPM is +8.1 over 134.4k poss which is pretty close to what you see on Myers' work with +7.9 over 130.3k poss.

I think that was Engelmann's RAPM 1.0, much like to Myers' BPM 1.0. Engelmann changed his formula over time.
The dataset we have on Google Sheets for Engelmann's RAPM recorded by Goldstein has significantly different values.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#26 » by Odinn21 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:23 pm

Just saw this one.

Dutchball97 wrote:Weird how 2018 is rated so low by RAPM. Even though his effort might not have been as high as it used to be, WS and BPM rate it as arguably even better than any other season in the second Cavs stint and it is hard to deny his 2018 post-season was great by just about any measure. I'm not sure if such a big dissonance between the +- and boxscore stats is normal.

It's about his defensive effort, more like lack thereof. In every single +/- tracking we have, James' defense was at the bottom of the league.

James was 477th of 539 in D-RAPM in Engelmann's rs+ps numbers.
James was 525th of 540 in D-RAPM in nbashotcharts.com's rs only numbers.
James was 509th of 512 in D-RPM in ESPN's rs only numbers.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#27 » by Eddy_JukeZ » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:47 am

Haven't been able to commit to this, but I've enjoyed reading the posts thus far.

Will try and contribute if I get some free time to do so.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#28 » by homecourtloss » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:36 am

1. '09 LeBron — the impact numbers in both RS and PS and the carry job of a that cast to 66 wins and an 8+ SRS..
2. ‘03 Duncan — great regular and post season and carry job in the playoffs
3. '12 LeBron — high motor impact throughout RS and PS
4. ‘13 LeBron — same as ‘12, 27 game win streak, playoffs impact metrics not as good
5. ‘16 LeBron — Regular season not as good but highest possible level vs. 73 win team
6. '17 LeBron — Same as above, offensive mastery of game
7. '02 Duncan — Right under ‘03 Duncan
8. '10 LeBron —Don’t feel right placing him this far down since metrics close to 2009 metrics but playoffs not as sublime
9. ‘07 Duncan — Duncanesque two way impact
10. ‘14 LeBron — lax defensive effort but otherworldly offensive efficiency
11. ‘20 LeBron — highly underrated season
12. '18 LeBron — peak offensive carry job in playoffs but gave up on defense

Note: Seems harsh on Duncan as I see 2001 and 2005 also possible here and 2006 which could have been a GOATy year before the injury.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#29 » by falcolombardi » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:49 am

i feel 2017 consisntently below 2016 may be a bit of ring bias, their 2017 postseason was more dominant than the year prior before facing the warriors and their offense more dominant

they slipped defensively which i am not sure what to atribute it to, were it related to lebron it would be a great reason to prefer 2016

also 2020 is a year i wonder if it is getting underated because of lebron age and having davis or even the bubble situation

he was fairly resilient in post season, has great defensive metrics and was part of a elite defense, his boxscore numbers were worse than other versions but still really good on their own. the regular season was strong too
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#30 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:16 am

homecourtloss wrote:12. '18 LeBron — peak offensive carry job in playoffs but gave up on defense

Note: Seems harsh on Duncan as I see 2001 and 2005 also possible here and 2006 which could have been a GOATy year before the injury.

I'm really struggling to see a case for James' 2018 season with the defensive performance he had, especially in the regular season.

If someone has a box score and +/- combination like PIPM, I'd like to see those numbers.

In PIPM (rs+ps);
2018 James was a +4.05 player (14th in the season), produced +16.4 Wins Added over 3927 minutes*.
2006 Duncan was +4.70 player (4th in the season), produced +15.8 Wins Added over 3277 minutes.
2005 Duncan was a +6.76 player (2nd in the season), produced +18.7 Wins Added over 3070 minutes.
2004 Duncan was a +6.03 player (2nd in the season), produced +17.2 Wins Added over 2928 minutes.
2001 Duncan was a +7.12 player (1st in the season), produced +24.1 Wins Added over 3700 minutes.
(*: Heck, 2018 James' +4.05/14th mark is on the same level as 2008 Duncan with +4.02/12th)

I mean 2004 and 2005 Duncan comes ahead in total Wins Added despite missing significant playtime with injuries. 2006 Duncan comes close in Wins Added despite not making later rounds in the playoffs and playing 650 minutes less.

(PIPM popped in my head because my initial reaction was "2018 James did not produce as many wins as 2001/2004/2005/2006 Duncan" and PIPM looked like it was the most reasonable to use since it had +/- involvement and defensive quality/impact are more properly captured in +/- numbers. Not that I'm saying PIPM is the metric to use or perfect.)

James' 2018 is getting votes mostly based on reputation of the player imo. One of the things I do when I want to eliminate impact of the name, I think about "what if this performance came from a player named XXX YYY". To me, James' 2018 season is not holding up against such thinking.

By the way, I think you mistook 2004 for 2005 and 2005 for 2006 in your note.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#31 » by homecourtloss » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:35 am

Odinn21 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:12. '18 LeBron — peak offensive carry job in playoffs but gave up on defense

Note: Seems harsh on Duncan as I see 2001 and 2005 also possible here and 2006 which could have been a GOATy year before the injury.

I'm really struggling to see a case for James' 2018 season with the defensive performance he had, especially in the regular season.

If someone has a box score and +/- combination like PIPM, I'd like to see those numbers.

In PIPM (rs+ps);
2018 James was a +4.05 player (14th in the season), produced +16.4 Wins Added over 3927 minutes*.
2006 Duncan was +4.70 player (4th in the season), produced +15.8 Wins Added over 3277 minutes.
2005 Duncan was a +6.76 player (2nd in the season), produced +18.7 Wins Added over 3070 minutes.
2004 Duncan was a +6.03 player (2nd in the season), produced +17.2 Wins Added over 2928 minutes.
2001 Duncan was a +7.12 player (1st in the season), produced +24.1 Wins Added over 3700 minutes.
(*: Heck, 2018 James' +4.05/14th mark is on the same level as 2008 Duncan with +4.02/12th)

I mean 2004 and 2005 Duncan comes ahead in total Wins Added despite missing significant playtime with injuries. 2006 Duncan comes close in Wins Added despite not making later rounds in the playoffs and playing 650 minutes less.

(PIPM popped in my head because my initial reaction was "2018 James did not produce as many wins as 2001/2004/2005/2006 Duncan" and PIPM looked like it was the most reasonable to use since it had +/- involvement and defensive quality/impact are more properly captured in +/- numbers. Not that I'm saying PIPM is the metric to use or perfect.)

James' 2018 is getting votes mostly based on reputation of the player imo. One of the things I do when I want to eliminate impact of the name, I think about "what if this performance came from a player named XXX YYY". To me, James' 2018 season is not holding up against such thinking.

By the way, I think you mistook 2004 for 2005 and 2005 for 2006 in your note.


I had a hard time with 2018 LeBron. He didn’t try on defense since his team was hopeless defensively and I think he had made up his mind that he was leaving which isn’t a good look. On the other hand, he reached in the playoffs A level few ever have offensively with his teammates unable to finish layups and make open threes. The level 2018 playoffs LeBron had paired with decent talent and it’s likely a title unless facing a 2018 GSW type team.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#32 » by falcolombardi » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:59 am

2018 LeBron was probably a neutral ish defender that season so nearly all his impact would be offensive

i am sure that season offensive value is higher than most (very likely all) defensive value of any prime duncan season

is it better by a significant gap tho? one that is bigger than all of duncan underated offense?
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#33 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:04 am

homecourtloss wrote:I had a hard time with 2018 LeBron. He didn’t try on defense since his team was hopeless defensively and I think he had made up his mind that he was leaving which isn’t a good look. On the other hand, he reached in the playoffs A level few ever have offensively with his teammates unable to finish layups and make open threes. The level 2018 playoffs LeBron had paired with decent talent and it’s likely a title unless facing a 2018 GSW type team.

Oh, I'm not disputing the offensive level James reached in 2018, specifically in the playoffs. But he was quite literally at the bottom of the league defensively. Initially he did not put his team in a position to succeed (there's a significant difference between #4 seed and #1/#2 seeds in terms of success probabilities).
Also, it wasn't like he started playing great D in the playoffs. He was still bad, less bad, but still bad. Looking at the 3 adjusted defensive +/- I linked from a percentile aspect by comparing Engelmann's % to the other 2, James was still below average on D in playoffs, he was still in the bottom 40%* defensively.
(*: This was just a direct comparison between those 3 percentiles, if we're to limit it as among postseason players, I suspect that James' position gets lower.)

I'm particularly curious why 2018 James > 2001 Duncan. The same argument going for James is also applicable to Duncan's situation (strong ps showing, team structure issues*, getting trounced by an all-time great team), on top of that Duncan had a pretty strong regular season performance unlike James.
*: Derek Anderson, the team's #2 scoring option, got his shoulder separated by Juwan Howard in the 2nd round, Avery Johnson was demoted to a bench player mid season after getting injured.

With 2018 James vs. 2005 Duncan, there's a trade off. I think James not playing defense took away more wins than Duncan not playing entirely for 15 games. But it's arguable from championship equity pov.
But what's there to put 2018 James over 2001 Duncan? James was the better offensive player, Duncan was the better defensive player. The gap on defense is just bigger than the gap on offense and Duncan still provided a comparable championship equity in the playoffs.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#34 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:30 am

Odinn21 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:I had a hard time with 2018 LeBron. He didn’t try on defense since his team was hopeless defensively and I think he had made up his mind that he was leaving which isn’t a good look. On the other hand, he reached in the playoffs A level few ever have offensively with his teammates unable to finish layups and make open threes. The level 2018 playoffs LeBron had paired with decent talent and it’s likely a title unless facing a 2018 GSW type team.

Oh, I'm not disputing the offensive level James reached in 2018, specifically in the playoffs. But he was quite literally at the bottom of the league defensively. Initially he did not put his team in a position to succeed (there's a significant difference between #4 seed and #1/#2 seeds in terms of success probabilities).
Also, it wasn't like he started playing great D in the playoffs. He was still bad, less bad, but still bad. Looking at the 3 adjusted defensive +/- I linked from a percentile aspect by comparing Engelmann's % to the other 2, James was still below average on D in playoffs, he was still in the bottom 40%* defensively.
(*: This was just a direct comparison between those 3 percentiles, if we're to limit it as among postseason players, I suspect that James' position gets lower.)

I'm particularly curious why 2018 James > 2001 Duncan. The same argument going for James is also applicable to Duncan's situation (strong ps showing, team structure issues*, getting trounced by an all-time great team), on top of that Duncan had a pretty strong regular season performance unlike James.
*: Derek Anderson, the team's #2 scoring option, got his shoulder separated by Juwan Howard in the 2nd round, Avery Johnson was demoted to a bench player mid season after getting injured.

With 2018 James vs. 2005 Duncan, there's a trade off. I think James not playing defense took away more wins than Duncan not playing entirely for 15 games. But it's arguable from championship equity pov.
But what's there to put 2018 James over 2001 Duncan? James was the better offensive player, Duncan was the better defensive player. The gap on defense is just bigger than the gap on offense and Duncan still provided a comparable championship equity in the playoffs.


People don't weight the RS and PS all the same however, so one could argue that Duncan provided more value over the RS, but in the PS Lebron regained the lead. I know you hate the one-number metrics in the PS but:

18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

05 Duncan
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-4.8
RAPTOR-6.15
PIPM-1.37

One of 18 Lebron's big appeals is that he upped his game in the PS. By the metrics, it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to feel like 18 Lebron was special. Also, it is about how you interpret the defensive impact metrics. One could argue that Lebron was among the worst defensive players in the league if you look at certain numbers, and sure that would be fair. Yet, 06 Kobe and 03 McGrady both look like healthy negatives on D, yet many on this board would say they were more so neutral to slight positive defenders, and that their defensive metrics are dragged down bly an overall bad defensive cast (and hence it is not indicative of their actual abilities on that end).

I believe you even said in a post on a different discussion about how 2020 Lebron in the PS looked like a slower and less dominant version of 2018 Lebron. But if you looked at the metrics, he would be better than every player we are discussing now.

2020 James
AuPM/G-6
Backpicks BPM-9.37
RAPTOR-10.3
PIPM-6.5

Now, is 2020 Lebron a better player than 2018 Lebron or play better than him in the PS? I don't think so, even with 2020 Lebron being a better defender. But I think, a more stable infrastructure allowed for his metrics to pop and he comes out looking like a superior player in the RS and PS, then all the guys we are talking about here.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#35 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:37 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:People don'tweight the RS and PS all the same however, so one could argue that Duncan provided more value over the RS, but in the PS Lebron regained the lead. I know you hate the one-number metrics in the PS but:

18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

05 Duncan
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-4.8
RAPTOR-6.15
PIPM-1.37

I'll leave 2005 outside of it because Duncan's raw +/- numbers which are the starting points for any adjustments were f'ed with injury related lineup / minute allocation changes.
How's that outlook between 2018 James and 2001 Duncan bigger than the gap in regular season performances? I mean really?..

LukaTheGOAT wrote:One of 18 Lebron's big appeals is that he upped his game in the PS. By the metrics, it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to feel like 18 Lebron was special. Also, it is about how you interpret the defensive impact metrics. One could argue that Lebron was among the worst defensive players in the league if you look at certain numbers, and sure that would be fair. Yet, 06 Kobe and 03 McGrady both look like healthy negatives on D, yet many on this board would say they were more so neutral to slight positive defenders, and that their defensive metrics are dragged down bly an overall bad defensive cast (and hence it is not indicative of their actual abilities on that end).

This is straight up a bad argument. A very bad one. Just look at what you're basing your argument;
2003 McGrady was a slight positive defender, he was 121st of 428 (top 29%) in D-RAPM according to Engelmann's numbers.
2006 McGrady was a slight negative defender, he was 240th of 456 (top 53%) in D-RAPM.
2018 Bryant was a very negative defender, he was 477th of 539 (top 89%) in D-RAPM.

I also listed 3 independent +/- tracking and in all of those 3, 2018 James was ranked at the bottom of the league.

This is hardly interpretation dependant.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I believe you even said in a post on a different discussion about how 2020 Lebron in the PS looked like a slower and less dominant version of 2018 Lebron. But if you looked at the metrics, he would be better than every player we are discussing now.

I've never said such thing. But I should add the following part because this part and that part will have the same answer.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Now, is 2020 Lebron a better player than 2018 Lebron or play better than him in the PS? I don't think so, even with 2020 Lebron being a better defender. But I think, a more stable infrastructure allowed for his metrics to pop and he comes out looking like a superior player in the RS and PS, then all the guys we are talking about here.

Showings, efforts, performances matter. It's not only down to quality. It's already arguable that 2018 James was a better player than 2001 Duncan. I mean the only reason many of you making a case for James is that you remember how well he did, lost a 51/8/8 game against a historic team, carried a bad team to the NBA Finals etc. But you don't remember Duncan having a 40/15/3 game in a 88-81 game and still losing. That game wasn't an any lesser performance than James' 51/8/8 game. Or Duncan dominating the Mavs despite losing his #2 scoring option in game 2.

If we're not recognising performance issues, it's just all about abilities, not present performances, I should just put 2005 Duncan in the top 10 without a care in the world as if he didn't get injured...
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#36 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:56 am

Odinn21 wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:People don'tweight the RS and PS all the same however, so one could argue that Duncan provided more value over the RS, but in the PS Lebron regained the lead. I know you hate the one-number metrics in the PS but:

18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

05 Duncan
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-4.8
RAPTOR-6.15
PIPM-1.37

I'll leave 2005 outside of it because Duncan's raw +/- numbers which are the starting points for any adjustments were f'ed with injury related lineup / minute allocation changes.
How's that outlook between 2018 James and 2001 Duncan bigger than the gap in regular season performances? I mean really?..

LukaTheGOAT wrote:One of 18 Lebron's big appeals is that he upped his game in the PS. By the metrics, it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to feel like 18 Lebron was special. Also, it is about how you interpret the defensive impact metrics. One could argue that Lebron was among the worst defensive players in the league if you look at certain numbers, and sure that would be fair. Yet, 06 Kobe and 03 McGrady both look like healthy negatives on D, yet many on this board would say they were more so neutral to slight positive defenders, and that their defensive metrics are dragged down bly an overall bad defensive cast (and hence it is not indicative of their actual abilities on that end).

This is straight up a bad argument. A very bad one. Just look at what you're basing your argument;
2003 McGrady was a slight positive defender, he was 121st of 428 (top 29%) in D-RAPM according to Engelmann's numbers.
2006 McGrady was a slight negative defender, he was 240th of 456 (top 53%) in D-RAPM.
2018 Bryant was a very negative defender, he was 477th of 539 (top 89%) in D-RAPM.

I also listed 3 independent +/- tracking and in all of those 3, 2018 James was ranked at the bottom of the league.

This is hardly interpretation dependant.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I believe you even said in a post on a different discussion about how 2020 Lebron in the PS looked like a slower and less dominant version of 2018 Lebron. But if you looked at the metrics, he would be better than every player we are discussing now.

I've never said such thing. But I should add the following part because this part and that part will have the same answer.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Now, is 2020 Lebron a better player than 2018 Lebron or play better than him in the PS? I don't think so, even with 2020 Lebron being a better defender. But I think, a more stable infrastructure allowed for his metrics to pop and he comes out looking like a superior player in the RS and PS, then all the guys we are talking about here.

Showings, efforts, performances matter. It's not only down to quality. It's already arguable that 2018 James was a better player than 2001 Duncan. I mean the only reason many of you making a case for James is that you remember how well he did, lost a 51/8/8 game against a historic team, carried a bad team to the NBA Finals etc. But you don't remember Duncan having a 40/15/3 game in a 88-81 game and still losing. That game wasn't an any lesser performance than James' 51/8/8 game. Or Duncan dominating the Mavs despite losing his #2 scoring option in game 2.

If we're not recognising performance issues, it's just all about abilities, not present performances, I should just put 2005 Duncan in the top 10 without a care in the world as if he didn't get injured...


They do not do well in general in defensive plus-minus metrics that heavily focus on that year in particular

2003 McGrady

-1.2 in NPI DRAPM

-1.35 DPIPM

-0.53 in DPM

2006 Kobe

-1.35 DPIPM

-1.1 in NPI DRAPM

-2.28 in DPIPM

-1.74 in DPM

Those are bad defensive numbers no matter how you slice it. Often times you won't ever see starters with defensive numbers that low, mostly because it is hard to have starter quality level impact when your defense checks out as so negative.


I'm not following the rest of your argument, sorry? Are you saying that we are supposedly to unarguably admit 2020 LBJ>2018 LBJ in performance, because some metrics say so? I am not sure I am following, so I am checking.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#37 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:00 am

As I see it the RS/PS split in terms of evaluation is always going to leave some people unhappy but I do think there was already a precedent for still rating seasons where a player coasted somewhat in the regular season as long as said player had proven to be a level above that in prior seasons and if they in fact stepped up their game in the play-offs. 2018 James would definitely qualify among those lines.

Besides that we have already seen seasons with elite offensive production and lackluster at best defense get voted on these lists with Bird and Magic's later seasons.

Now I haven't had the time yet to look at LeBron's 2018 against Duncan's 01, 05 and 07 seasons yet (I'll probably do that later today once I get back home) but I wouldn't be surprised to end up with 2018 LeBron somewhere on my list. I just think that personal criteria should be respected here and I don't think singling out homecourtloss for having this season in the very last spot on his list is productive to the overall conversation.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#38 » by Odinn21 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:23 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:2003 McGrady

-1.2 in NPI DRAPM

2006 Kobe

-1.35 DPIPM

-1.1 in NPI DRAPM

-2.28 in DPIPM

Those are bad defensive numbers no matter how you slice it.

Those are not as bad as 2018 James' defensive numbers, no matter how you slice it.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I'm not following the rest of your argument, sorry? Are you saying that we are supposedly to unarguably admit 2020 LBJ>2018 LBJ in performance, because some metrics say so? I am not sure I am following, so I am checking.

Are you saying that we are supposedly to unarguably admit 2018 LBJ > 2001 TD, because you didn't like some independent defensive metrics coming to the same conclusion about James' defense and saying otherwise?

I can banter too. It won't get us far.

You literally posted this yourself, this was your first part of your 1st post in the thread at that (ironic that you're not happy with metrics in this last post);
18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

Duncan's coming ahead in AuPM and PIPM, James' coming ahead in BPM and RAPTOR. James' coming ahead on overall but it's not like he sweeps Duncan and the gap is gigantic. And this was ps alone.

And now you're checking what we do with metrics?

---

Dutchball97 wrote:I just think that personal criteria should be respected here and I don't think singling out homecourtloss for having this season in the very last spot on his list is productive to the overall conversation.

homecourtloss knows that I didn't single him out in any way and we had a discussion about James' 2018 season. It wasn't not a productive conversation to me and I doubt it was unproductive for him.
I'm seriously worried if you'll consider every single piece of discussion a disrespect to personal criteria. :(

Fwiw, I shorten quotes to avoid getting crowded in threads also it's easier to highlight my focus that way. Maybe you thought of my post to homecourtloss as singling out cause of the shortening.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Posts: 766
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#39 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:41 am

Odinn21 wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:2003 McGrady

-1.2 in NPI DRAPM

2006 Kobe

-1.35 DPIPM

-1.1 in NPI DRAPM

-2.28 in DPIPM

Those are bad defensive numbers no matter how you slice it.

Those are not as bad as 2018 James' defensive numbers, no matter how you slice it.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I'm not following the rest of your argument, sorry? Are you saying that we are supposedly to unarguably admit 2020 LBJ>2018 LBJ in performance, because some metrics say so? I am not sure I am following, so I am checking.

Are you saying that we are supposedly to unarguably admit 2018 LBJ > 2001 TD, because you didn't like some independent defensive metrics coming to the same conclusion about James' defense and saying otherwise?

I can banter too. It won't get us far.

You literally posted this yourself, this was your first part of your 1st post in the thread at that (ironic that you're not happy with metrics in this last post);
18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

Duncan's coming ahead in AuPM and PIPM, James' coming ahead in BPM and RAPTOR. James' coming ahead on overall but it's not like he sweeps Duncan and the gap is gigantic. And this was ps alone.

And now you're checking what we do with metrics?


We don't have the same exact version of RAPM for 18 Lebron as we do for them. But if we compare him in similar metrics, his defense is definitely comparable to those two.

18 James

DPIPM: -1.69

NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM: -1.33 (Not a 1 to 1 comparison with the RAPM I listed).

D-DPM-1.10

By these numbers he is right in line with the 2 seasons I mentioned. DPM has has defense well above Kobe at -1.74 and McGrady at-0.53.

And by original point was depending on how much you weight RS vs PS, you might get different answers. 2018 Lebron's PS could definitely be considered comparabled or better than Duncan, is all I was saying. But if you look at just 2020 Lebron's numbers, he would be unquestionably better than everyone I mentioned in the same metrics (which is why I say perhaps, situation would alter how they come out look in these metrics a bit).

I don't think 2020 Lebron performed better than 2018 Lebron, but if you just look at the metrics, then 2020 Lebron had a far better RS and PS.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan 

Post#40 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:48 am

Odinn21 wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:People don'tweight the RS and PS all the same however, so one could argue that Duncan provided more value over the RS, but in the PS Lebron regained the lead. I know you hate the one-number metrics in the PS but:

18 James
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-8.4 (3rd highest OBPM ever of significant minutes players, with only 09 LBJ and 91 Jordan coming out ahead)
RAPTOR-7.6
PIPM-3.84

01 Duncan
AuPM/G-5.4
Backpicks BPM-5.2
RAPTOR-6.24
PIPM-4.05

05 Duncan
AuPM/G-3.4
Backpicks BPM-4.8
RAPTOR-6.15
PIPM-1.37

I'll leave 2005 outside of it because Duncan's raw +/- numbers which are the starting points for any adjustments were f'ed with injury related lineup / minute allocation changes.
How's that outlook between 2018 James and 2001 Duncan bigger than the gap in regular season performances? I mean really?..

LukaTheGOAT wrote:One of 18 Lebron's big appeals is that he upped his game in the PS. By the metrics, it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to feel like 18 Lebron was special. Also, it is about how you interpret the defensive impact metrics. One could argue that Lebron was among the worst defensive players in the league if you look at certain numbers, and sure that would be fair. Yet, 06 Kobe and 03 McGrady both look like healthy negatives on D, yet many on this board would say they were more so neutral to slight positive defenders, and that their defensive metrics are dragged down bly an overall bad defensive cast (and hence it is not indicative of their actual abilities on that end).

This is straight up a bad argument. A very bad one. Just look at what you're basing your argument;
2003 McGrady was a slight positive defender, he was 121st of 428 (top 29%) in D-RAPM according to Engelmann's numbers.
2006 McGrady was a slight negative defender, he was 240th of 456 (top 53%) in D-RAPM.
2018 Bryant was a very negative defender, he was 477th of 539 (top 89%) in D-RAPM.

I also listed 3 independent +/- tracking and in all of those 3, 2018 James was ranked at the bottom of the league.

This is hardly interpretation dependant.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I believe you even said in a post on a different discussion about how 2020 Lebron in the PS looked like a slower and less dominant version of 2018 Lebron. But if you looked at the metrics, he would be better than every player we are discussing now.

I've never said such thing. But I should add the following part because this part and that part will have the same answer.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Now, is 2020 Lebron a better player than 2018 Lebron or play better than him in the PS? I don't think so, even with 2020 Lebron being a better defender. But I think, a more stable infrastructure allowed for his metrics to pop and he comes out looking like a superior player in the RS and PS, then all the guys we are talking about here.

Showings, efforts, performances matter. It's not only down to quality. It's already arguable that 2018 James was a better player than 2001 Duncan. I mean the only reason many of you making a case for James is that you remember how well he did, lost a 51/8/8 game against a historic team, carried a bad team to the NBA Finals etc. But you don't remember Duncan having a 40/15/3 game in a 88-81 game and still losing. That game wasn't an any lesser performance than James' 51/8/8 game. Or Duncan dominating the Mavs despite losing his #2 scoring option in game 2.

If we're not recognising performance issues, it's just all about abilities, not present performances, I should just put 2005 Duncan in the top 10 without a care in the world as if he didn't get injured...


In this thread, it certainly sounds like you are saying 2018 Lebron is superior to 2020 Lebron.

Your exact words: "2010 for Bryant compared to 2008 was like 2020 for James compared to 2018. The results were there but you could see and feel that he lost a step in a very visible way. They weren't getting to the rim just as easy as before."

Link to the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2115896&p=93373463&hilit=2020+James+2018+James#p93373463

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