[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Shaquille O'Neal

[Odinn21]

I'd like to go back to some footage to add some spice;

Watch on YouTube

This was a huge, huge game by Kareem despite the loss. He went 43/20/3 and 4 blocks on 72% ts. Though what I want to highlight is at 25:02.
Just look at how anxious the Lakers offense is to give the ball to Kareem without running a play. That possession also the reason why Kareem was a more versatile scorer than Shaq. Not necessarily more impactful, but it'd be foolish to say Shaq had more efficient moves at his disposal.
Look at the Lakers offense starting at 26:50. How clumsy it was and how Kareem was forced to operate from the 3 pt line (which wasn't there yet of course). And it wasn't an entirely uncommon situation for Kareem from 1974 to 1979.

Watch on YouTube

This was another important game from him.

Surely, Shaq wasn't bad himself.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Shaq's game was more straightforward and he's pretty fresh in minds.

The biggest difference is, as 70sFan voiced a few times now, defensive quality and effort. Kareem was a better defender and he put more effort into defense. I'm not as harsh as him on Shaq's defense but it wasn't like Shaq was the defensive force Kareem was and he was more inconsistent on top of that. I don't like how lazy he was with his footwork on defense and also lazy with defensive boards.

I don't know if you look at it that way but you can point the seasons Shaq decided to play D by looking at his team's relative DReb%* in defensive four factors. Shaq's numbers have a rather big huge variance.
(*: Well, correlation with pace needs to be considered to make full use of such evaluation method.)
Also, this relative Reb% method is one of the ways track box-out masters like Steven Adams and their true impact beyond rpg numbers on boards.

Kareem himself wasn't a goat level rebounder, he usually had lower boards numbers than his capabilities in the regular seasons. It was one of the things he usually toned down in rs. But he turned up in the playoffs big time, worked hard to get boards, box out, etc. He wasn't lazy.

On the other side of the coin, Shaq still had comparable overall rebound numbers because he was beast on offensive boards. But the studies I did have a conclusion of defensive rebounding / boxing out mattering to defense than offensive rebounds to offense.
So, Kareem's superiority on defensive boards outscales Shaq's superiority on offensive boards and it's not a minor gap.

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I'll get back to this my rankings. I'm yet to finalise them.

[DQuinn1575]

I really think Kareem in 71-77 was about as good the whole time. He obviously missed time in 75, and 71-72 benefitted a lot from Oscar. By 74 Oscar was much less effective; the Bucks had a hard time ballhandling in the finals vs. the Celtics.
I put 71 over 72 due to playoffs, and moved 77 up over 73 and 74 due to playoffs, although I think the numbers underrate his 74 effort. In 73 he was just as good, but I do need to downgrade him due to his poor playoff performance where they were eliminated. I still feel his season long excellence puts him on the list.

Kareem is one of the very few players to be the best college player from his first game on, and maybe the only one who would have been the top player a year or more before he played his first game. And he probably winds up as the best first, second, third year player ever.

I really feel Shaq just wasn't at the Top Level of Kareem; only Jordan and LeBron have an argument for how long they were the best player in the world -

1 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
6 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
7 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
8 1973 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9 2003 Shaquille O'Neal
10 1978 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

[sansterre]

Don't forget to post all twelve of your picks

[Dutchball97]

1. Shaquille O'Neal, 2000 - Very close between the top 3 seasons here but 2000 being the most complete season as well as his incredible carryjob in the finals gives him the nod.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1977 - Amazing individual season but context of team success does matter to me and getting swept in the second round just keeps him from the top spot.
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1974 - Not Kareem's most impressive regular season but not far off either from his best outings on that front. The post-season was arguably the most well rounded of his career though.
4. Shaquille O'Neal, 2001 - Close to 2000 but missed some more games and got considerably more help from Kobe this post-season.
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1971 - Not quite as polished as Kareem's later seasons but very strong nontheless.
6. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1972 - Similar to 71 but not as strong in the first round and didn't go as deep to make up for it.
7. Shaquille O'Neal, 2002 - Mostly seperated from 01 because he once again missed more time. Still a very strong season though.
8. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1980 - Took a step back in the regular season after 78 but was still playing at a MVP level and had a great post-season that could've even been higher if not for the missed game in the finals.
9. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1979 - Similar to 1980 but a shorter post-season run makes the difference.
10. Shaquille O'Neal, 2003 - Shaq took small steps back every year after 2000. This could be lower if you value the regular season more but I do like his post-season performance significantly more than 99.
11. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1973 - Amazing regular season but had a stinker in the play-offs by his standards. I could see an argument for his 76 season but I still prefer a so-so post-season over no post-season, especially when the regular seasons are so close.
12. Shaquille O'Neal, 1999 - Thought about putting it ahead of 73 Kareem but even though he played a round more I really don't think his performance in the play-offs was good enough to make up for Kareem having a stronger regular season.

Kareem missing the play-offs in 1976 is just something I can't rate over seasons with somewhat worse but still very strong regular seasons and post-seasons to speak of. Shaq missing games in 02 and 03 dropped him down but in 98 he just missed too much time for my liking to still make the list, missing 15 games and missing 22 games is a pretty significant difference to me. 95 Shaq and post-1980 Kareem aren't good enough to make the cut.

Kareem wins this but it is a bit closer than I initially thought it would be.

[DQuinn1575]

Don't forget to post all twelve of your picks

Thanks
If we do 45 of these I’m bound to eventually get it right. Will post later when i get back to pc

[DQuinn1575]

I really think Kareem in 71-77 was about as good the whole time. He obviously missed time in 75, and 71-72 benefitted a lot from Oscar. By 74 Oscar was much less effective; the Bucks had a hard time ballhandling in the finals vs. the Celtics.
I put 71 over 72 due to playoffs, and moved 77 up over 73 and 74 due to playoffs, although I think the numbers underrate his 74 effort. In 73 he was just as good, but I do need to downgrade him due to his poor playoff performance where they were eliminated. I still feel his season long excellence puts him on the list.

Kareem is one of the very few players to be the best college player from his first game on, and maybe the only one who would have been the top player a year or more before he played his first game. And he probably winds up as the best first, second, third year player ever.

I really feel Shaq just wasn't at the Top Level of Kareem; only Jordan and LeBron have an argument for how long they were the best player in the world -

1 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
6 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
7 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
8 1973 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9 2003 Shaquille O'Neal
10 1978 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Adding 11 and 12:
1 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
6 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
7 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
8 1973 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9 2003 Shaquille O'Neal
10 1978 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
11 1994 Shaquille O'Neal
12 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

[Odinn21]

11 1994 Shaquille O'Neal

Over 1995 version? Or you had 1995 in mind?

[Odinn21]

I watched the following games for Shaq ('98, '99, '02, '03) since I feel pretty settled with my rankings for Kareem seasons.
Though I watched these games in a quicker fashion than watching every single second. I tried to pick Shaq's strongest games in the given season's playoffs, at least one of the very strongest ones. My goal was to see if there was certain differences between my notes and his best.

39/8/7, 5 blocks and 0 turnovers on .771 ts against the Sonics in game 4 in 1998;

Watch on YouTube

37/11/3 and 3 blocks on .618 ts against the Rockets in game 4 in 1999;

Watch on YouTube

41/17/1 and 2 blocks on .631 ts against the Kings in game 6, an elimination game for the Lakers, in 2002;

Watch on YouTube

34/23/6 and 2 blocks on .521 ts against the Timberwolves in game 3 in 2003*;
*: This was an interesting and an important game for the Lakers because they were 1-2 down against the Timberwolves which all they had Garnett and a hot Troy Hudson, the Wolves weren't the toughest bully in the yard and the Lakers' laziness was on the verge of putting themselves on the block.

Watch on YouTube

Even in Shaq's high points in crucial moments, one can tell how he had the potential to be better on defense but he was lacking in that department. It wasn't even a matter of motor, saving more for offense, he was just not into defense as much as he should be. Still one hell of a player, easily top 10 ever. It's just that these issues are going against him when the comparison is being made to Kareem.

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I think it'd be only fair to post some games of prime but not peak Kareem at this point.

29/16/8 and 6 blocks on .684 ts against the Nuggest in game 3, an elimination game, in 1979, part 1 and part 2;

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

38/11/6 and 7 blocks on .616 ts against the Sonics in game 5 in 1980, the close-out game;

Watch on YouTube

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Top 7 seasons for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar;
1977
1974
1971
1976
1972
1980
1979

Top 7 seasons for Shaquille O'Neal;
2000
2001
2002
1998
1999
2003
1995

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My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
3. 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
5. 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6. 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9. 1979 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
10. 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
11. 1998 Shaquille O'Neal
12. 1999 Shaquille O'Neal

Wow. Didn't expect this list to be this lopsided.

Here's what I had in mind;
1977 Kareem and 2000 Shaq are goat level seasons easily and it's basically a toss up between the two.
1974 Kareem and 2001 Shaq are also close to that level but also not quite. But 1974 was closer, especially with the lazy defense Shaq was playing through in the rs.
1971 Kareem is just too complete to ignore and drop any further at this point.
1972 Kareem played against arguably the top 2 goat low post defenders and held his own pretty fairly.
1976 Kareem missed the ps only because of an idiotic playoffs format and he had definitely a great regular season. So, there's literally no reason to dismiss this season.

And here's where it gets interesting.
Shaq was great, for a moment I thought "Was Shaq better than Kareem enough to make up for the missed games" and I was about to rank 2002 Shaq ahead of 1979&1980 Kareem. Then I changed the question to its reverse, "was Kareem worse enough to put Shaq ahead" and that was a clear and a solid "no", instead of a "yeah, I guess so".

Personally, I don't like Kareem's 1973 because it was kind of like Dirk's 2007. It was a pretty strong regular season and that postseason was pretty matchup specific. But it still happened. The Bucks had a better team, they had the best player in the league and they couldn't get past the Warriors because Nate stopped Kareem like no one else did before or after. The Bucks lost to the Lakers in 1972 and Wilt did a good job Kareem in that series but Kareem still held his own. In 1973, there was no holding his own.

[Odinn21]

2 hours and 50 minutes left on the clock.

[70sFan]

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
3. 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
5. 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6. 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9. 1979 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
10. 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
11. 1998 Shaquille O'Neal
12. 1999 Shaquille O'Neal

Just a quick question - do you think that Kareem had better RS in 1976 than 1972? Do you think that his offense improved significantly between these seasons? Or maybe you simply put 1976 ahead because of relative underperformance in 1972 playoffs?

I'm asking because I think that 1972 is Kareem's overall best RS and the candidate for the best RS ever.

[DQuinn1575]

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
3. 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. 2001 Shaquille O'Neal
5. 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6. 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9. 1979 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
10. 2002 Shaquille O'Neal
11. 1998 Shaquille O'Neal
12. 1999 Shaquille O'Neal

Just a quick question - do you think that Kareem had better RS in 1976 than 1972? Do you think that his offense improved significantly between these seasons? Or maybe you simply put 1976 ahead because of relative underperformance in 1972 playoffs?

I'm asking because I think that 1972 is Kareem's overall best RS and the candidate for the best RS ever.

I agree - Kareem is scoring more, and much more efficiently in 71 and 72 - his adjusted shooting on B-Ref is 453 and 460, which is about 200 points more than 76, and 200 more than Shaq ever did. He also is as active as he ever was in 71 and 72; the defense is tops in the league both years, so I dont think he has any years with better defense. His passing improved some and he did rebound better, but not enough to make up for 2.5 points a game.

[Odinn21]

6. 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Just a quick question - do you think that Kareem had better RS in 1976 than 1972? Do you think that his offense improved significantly between these seasons? Or maybe you simply put 1976 ahead because of relative underperformance in 1972 playoffs?

I'm asking because I think that 1972 is Kareem's overall best RS and the candidate for the best RS ever.

To your questions;
(imo)
- Kareem had a better rs in 1976.
- Kareem slightly improved on offense but the main thing is improvement on defense. He was a better defender in 1976.
- Kareem's relatively underperforming in 1972 is not helping his case.

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I'll also put it numbers.

In sheer numbers, 1972 looks better but when you compare Kareem's individual numbers to team totals, 1972 and 1976 are on the same level.

Eff is an unweighted and very old metric but I see some use in it, especially for the pre-3pt line era.

Kareem's Eff to his team's total Eff ratio
in 1972; 30.36% (33.52% with a linear adjustment for minutes)
in 1976; 30.27% (35.30% with a linear adjustment for minutes)

Kareem's WS to his team's total WS ratio
in 1972; 38.14%
in 1976; 40.28%

Kareem's per game numbers in 1972 are slightly inflated compared to 1976 because of higher pace and also higher team output.

And I don't think of his 1972 ps performance highly enough to put 1972 ahead.

[Odinn21]

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Shaquille O'Neal results;

Code: Select all

1.   78 points / 0.929 share / '77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2.   75 points / 0.893 share / '00 Shaquille O'Neal
3.   70 points / 0.833 share / '74 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4.   61 points / 0.726 share / '71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5.   55 points / 0.655 share / '01 Shaquille O'Neal
6.   54 points / 0.643 share / '72 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7.   34 points / 0.405 share / '76 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8.   33 points / 0.393 share / '02 Shaquille O'Neal
9.   21 points / 0.250 share / '80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
10.  20 points / 0.238 share / '79 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
11.  20 points / 0.238 share / '73 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
12.   9 points / 0.107 share / '03 Shaquille O'Neal
                               
13.   5 points / 0.060 share / '98 Shaquille O'Neal
14.   4 points / 0.048 share / '70 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
15.   3 points / 0.036 share / '78 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
16.   2 points / 0.024 share / '99 Shaquille O'Neal
17.   2 points / 0.024 share / '94 Shaquille O'Neal

Points within top 12 seasons voted;
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 54 - 25 Shaquille O'Neal

Points totals in top 12 seasons voted;
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 358 - 172 Shaquille O'Neal

Winner: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Results on Google Sheets

[DQuinn1575]

6. 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Just a quick question - do you think that Kareem had better RS in 1976 than 1972? Do you think that his offense improved significantly between these seasons? Or maybe you simply put 1976 ahead because of relative underperformance in 1972 playoffs?

I'm asking because I think that 1972 is Kareem's overall best RS and the candidate for the best RS ever.

To your questions;
(imo)
- Kareem had a better rs in 1976.
- Kareem slightly improved on offense but the main thing is improvement on defense. He was a better defender in 1976.
- Kareem's relatively underperforming in 1972 is not helping his case.

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I'll also put it numbers.

In sheer numbers, 1972 looks better but when you compare Kareem's individual numbers to team totals, 1972 and 1976 are on the same level.

Eff is an unweighted and very old metric but I see some use in it, especially for the pre-3pt line era.

Kareem's Eff to his team's total Eff ratio
in 1972; 30.36% (33.52% with a linear adjustment for minutes)
in 1976; 30.27% (35.30% with a linear adjustment for minutes)

Kareem's WS to his team's total WS ratio
in 1972; 38.14%
in 1976; 40.28%

Kareem's per game numbers in 1972 are slightly inflated compared to 1976 because of higher pace and also higher team output.

And I don't think of his 1972 ps performance highly enough to put 1972 ahead.

Comparing to team numbers may not be a good way to look at it; 1972 was a much better team with pretty clearly the 2 best players- so

1. You’re comparing him to a tougher standard and
2. I’d rather have someone who is 35% of a 60+ win team than someone who is 35% of a 40+ win team

[Odinn21]

1. You’re comparing him to a tougher standard and
2. I’d rather have someone who is 35% of a 60+ win team than someone who is 35% of a 40+ win team

I mean you really do not see the flaw in your approach? It's not even between 2 different players. It's the same player, 4 seasons apart without no injury issues and also no quality gaps in given seasons. Do you really think Kareem's team regressed by 20 wins because of Kareem?

Also not that tougher standard. I suspect you had much idea statistically about the toughness standards. You might want to look at how team totals move and how impact the win numbers.
1972 Bucks had 11.6% more output than 1976 Bucks, but if you fail to recognize distributions and only look at win numbers, you only see 63W vs. 40W and assume the gap was more than 50%.

By the way, picking 1972 over 1976 for Kareem is not something illogical and I'm not arguing for 1976 necessarily in this post. Those reasons just did not feel right and this post is a counter-argument to those 2 reasons. That's all.

[DQuinn1575]

1. You’re comparing him to a tougher standard and
2. I’d rather have someone who is 35% of a 60+ win team than someone who is 35% of a 40+ win team

I mean you really do not see the flaw in your approach? It's not even between 2 different players. It's the same player, 4 seasons apart without no injury issues and also no quality gaps in given seasons. Do you really think Kareem's team regressed by 20 wins because of Kareem?

Also not that tougher standard. I suspect you had much idea statistically about the toughness standards. You might want to look at how team totals move and how impact the win numbers.
1972 Bucks had 11.6% more output than 1976 Bucks, but if you fail to recognize distributions and only look at win numbers, you only see 63W vs. 40W and assume the gap was more than 50%.

By the way, picking 1972 over 1976 for Kareem is not something illogical and I'm not arguing for 1976 necessarily in this post. Those reasons just did not feel right and this post is a counter-argument to those 2 reasons. That's all.

First of all Kareem was playing on the Lakers in 1976 not the Bucks.
The 1972 Bucks were largely better than the 76 Lakers because of 2 players, as I said - Oscar and Dandridge. I think I understand how team totals move- by SRS the 72 team is about 10 points better than the 76 team.
No, I dont think he regressed; his passing was better, his mobility on defense a little worse - overall ability I think was very similar between 1971 and probably 77.

I think Kareem's scoring was better, first of all the pace of the two teams is fairly similar, 111.2 to 108.0 - so very little of his scoring drop is due to pace. He scored better in 71-72, and he shot a lot better - 450+ TS Add by B-Ref is an incredible number.

Additionally the Team Defense is the best in the league in 72, so it's hard for me to think his defense was much better in 1976.

[homecourtloss]

Thought I had posted these

1. 1977 Kareem: peak offensive Kareem who was still impactful defensively. The efficacy of his scoring offense with such little variance from game to game probably makes it the most reliable scoring offense of any peak. It’s such a shame he played with such a terrible roster.

2. 2000 Shaq: best regular season and great PS run. Great effort on defense. One of his lower FTr during the regular season. Imagine if he had a higher one (though higher ones later related to hack a Shaq strategies) and had a decent FT shooting season...

2. 1974 Kareem: Better on defense than in 1977 though maybe less polished on offense. But I go back to the little variance in scoring from game to game. You knew how he was going to score but you couldn’t do anything about it, which engendered GOATish longevity. It’s interesting because James’ longevity’s catalyst is his ability to adjust his game in so many ways and roster constructions in vastly different playing style eras, which is impressive, while Kareem’s is that there is no answer to him regardless of playing era. It’s interesting that I wound up picking three non-title years as his peaks.

4. 1972 Kareem: great regular season, a better player than in 1971, ran into a GOATish team

5. 1971 Kareem

6. 2001 Shaq: dominant in post season though also Kobe’s best.

7. 2002 Shaq

8. 1976 Kareem: I know there’s no post season here due to playoff forms true le but he couldn’t be far off from 1977.

9. 1973 Kareem: a little lower due to struggled with Thurmond

10. 1980: Should have been Finals MVP before injury

11. 1998 Shaq: Monster impact season despite his usual poor FT shooting. +15.7 per 100 estimated on court...that’s crazy. 1998 series vs. Jazz not his fault kind of like 1977 series vs. Blazers

12. 1979 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar