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Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1977 Philadelphia 76ers (#24) @ The 1973 Boston Celtics (#9)

Overall:

Record: ‘73 Celtics, 68 wins (2nd) > '77 76ers, 50 wins (28th)
RSRS: ‘73 Celtics, +7.35 (9th) > ‘77 76ers, +3.78 (23rd)
PSRS: '73 Celtics, +5.66 (20th) > ‘77 76ers, +2.74 (30th)

When the '77 76ers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '77 76ers' offense vs '73 Celtics’ defense:

Regular Season: +1.7 Offensive Rating (20th) vs -5.8 Defensive Rating (3rd): -4.1 expected
Playoffs: +0.6 Offensive Rating (28th) vs -2.7 Defensive Rating (22nd): -2.1 expected

Lineup:

PG: Henry Bibby, 14.5% SS on -1.2% rTS, 9.4 / 3.1 / 4.1 / 1.3: -1.2 playoff OBPM
SG: Doug Collins, 21.3% SS on +5.8% rTS, 16.9 / 3.1 / 4.3 / 1.4: +3.1 playoff OBPM
SF: Julius Erving, 25.3% SS on +4.2% rTS, 19.9 / 7.8 / 3.4 / 3.0: +6.6 playoff OBPM
PF: George McGinnis, 28.1% SS on -0.8% rTS, 19.8 / 10.6 / 3.5 / 2.4: -1.7 playoff OBPM
C: Caldwell Jones, 10.9% SS on +0.9% rTS, 5.5 / 7.5 / 1.0 / 2.7: -1.8 playoff OBPM
6th: Steve Mix, 15.8% SS on +8.2% rTS, 9.7 / 4.6 / 1.8 / 1.4: -0.6 playoff OBPM


When the '73 Celtics have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '73 Celtics' offense vs '77 76ers' defense:

Regular Season: +1.3 Offensive Rating (23rd) vs -1.9 Defensive Rating (23rd): -0.6 expected
Playoffs: +2.3 Offensive Rating (15th) vs -1.0 Defensive Rating (27th): +1.3 expected

Lineup:

PG: Jo Jo White, 22.7% SS on -4.1% rTS, 17.2 / 4.4 / 5.3
SG: Don Chaney, 16.4% SS on +3.4% rTS, 11.4 / 5.0 / 2.4
SF: John Havlicek, 23.6% SS on +0.4% rTS, 20.8 / 6.2 / 5.8
PF: Paul Silas, 16.3% SS on +2.5% rTS, 11.6 / 11.4 / 2.7
C: Dave Cowens, 21.4% SS on -1.7% rTS, 17.9 / 14.1 / 3.6
6th: Don Nelson, 21.5% SS on +3.3% rTS, 9.4 / 3.8 / 1.2

Discussion Questions:

* Injuries: John Havlicek will miss game 7 for the Celtics, and play game 6 on short minutes and low volume.
* These aren’t entirely the Sixers that I tend to think of (early 80s). Dr. J actually is the #2 on offense, leaving George McGinnis to carry most of the volume - in the playoffs this trend reversed and Erving shined while McGinnis reduced volume and efficiency. They never really distinguished themselves in the playoffs. They whipped the Celtics, but the Celtics in ‘77 were a below average team. They barely beat the Rockets, and the Rockets weren’t that good. And then they were fairly decently handled by the Blazers. Weird as it is to say, the Sixers seemed to get a little *worse* in the playoffs, which is weird for a team on this list. Nevertheless, they have a lot of weapons.
* The ‘77 Sixers’ offense thrived on offensive rebounds; it’s 6th out of 20 teams in this tournament in that metric. But while we don’t have stats on the ‘73 Celtics, the ‘74, ‘75 and ‘76 Celtics are #4, #2 and #1 (respectively) in defensive rebounding. Who carries the day on the glass?
* Here’s a matchup we didn’t get to see; close-to-peak Havlicek against close-to-peak Erving. Both really athletic in different ways, how does this play out? Erving is long and strong, but can he keep up with Hondo’s violent off-ball movement? Havlicek is long and tireless, but can he really contain one of the best rim-attackers of his day?
* The ‘73 Celtics were a team that might have been. They won a fantastic 68 games and posted an impressive +7.35 RSRS. And in the first round they vaporized the league-average Hawks by 8 points a game. They faced the ‘73 Knicks in the Conference Finals and played them tight. But Havlicek injured his shoulder in the series and played like a shadow of himself in the remaining games, and the Knicks squeaked out a win. But make no mistake; the ‘73 Celtics had a phenomenal defense and a capable offense. I’ll grant that Havlicek’s injury is a bit of a caution, but is that enough to change the fact that the Celtics seem like the objectively better team?


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

MasterThread

Ah, this is where MoV derivatives get interesting. I mean, looking at the SRS/NRtg numbers these 2 teams had, one can assume the Sixers as a clearly lesser team but both teams were #3 in those categories in their given seasons.

I think Julius Erving is the most resilient scorer and playmaker in this matchup.
After a 21.6/8.5/3.7 (3.3 obpm) season, he was 27.3/6.4/4.5 (6.6 obpm) in the playoffs and 30.3/6.8/5.0 against the only good defensive team they faced.

Matchup and roster construction wise, somewhat similar teams. Erving being a beast and his main matchup in Havlicek missing some time really matter in this one.

Vote: '77 Sixers in 6.

I think I have to go Celtics. The Sixers were more talented but less cerebral and were off and on defensively. Every player on the Celtics is a guy who is a great roleplayer when not being a star and who plays tough defense. It would be easier if Havlicek were a full go though Hondo isn't strong enough to contain Erving either. Nelson isn't who you want trying to guard Erving or Collins (you may see some switching of Chaney and Nelson on the wings if Erving's midrange is falling though Nelson is more a combo forward). Still, I trust the Celtics more than I trust the Sixers to stay focused and not get distracted by pressure or questions of primacy.

Celtics in 6

Havlicek did excellent job on Erving in 1977. In fact, he did as good job on him as anyone I've ever seen. The problem with Celtics is that Hondo played injured in 1973 playoffs though. Without healthy John, they'd have nobody to contain Julius.

70sFan wrote:Havlicek did excellent job on Erving in 1977. In fact, he did as good job on him as anyone I've ever seen. The problem with Celtics is that Hondo played injured in 1973 playoffs though. Without healthy John, they'd have nobody to contain Julius.

In this scenario Havlicek is only out for one game and hobbled for a second. So we'd have a younger Hondo on Erving for five of the seven games. For whatever it's worth.

How about the injuries to McGinnis, Free, and Mix?

wojoaderge wrote:How about the injuries to McGinnis, Free, and Mix?

Can you elaborate? I'm ignoring Free because of his low playoff minutes; I'm assuming he's a non-factor for the series (and that injury may be part of the RS -> PS drop-off). I know neither McGinnis or Mix enough games to show up in this project, and their offensive playoff production is captured by their OBPM, but if there are things that would affect defense that would be good to know.

sansterre wrote:

wojoaderge wrote:How about the injuries to McGinnis, Free, and Mix?

Can you elaborate? I'm ignoring Free because of his low playoff minutes; I'm assuming he's a non-factor for the series (and that injury may be part of the RS -> PS drop-off). I know neither McGinnis or Mix enough games to show up in this project, and their offensive playoff production is captured by their OBPM, but if there are things that would affect defense that would be good to know.

Here's a contemporary breakdown of their injuries: https://www.nytimes.com/1977/05/22/archives/76ers-and-blazers-match-contrasting-styles-in-final.html

Free and Mix were definitely hobbled for the entire Finals. Now, I have to say that the '77 76ers are my all-time favorite NBA finalists by a good distance. Some say that they were poorly coached - i'd like to know what they would do with this roster. That said, I would not favor them at full health, and with these injuries, even that much more so. Matchup-wise, the Celtics have 3 excellent defenders at the 3 key positions. The 76ers would have had the depth advantage, but not with the injuries. Free can take over a game (he did so against the Celtics in game 7 of their real-life '77 series) like Downtown Freddie Brown, but it would be hard him to do it with a collapsed lung and bruised ribs. Erving may take advantage of an injured Hondo, but it wouldn't be enough - Celtics in 6

Not having Havlicek for a game and an injured one might help the Sixers if they were able to make it to 2-2 at least for the injuries to come into play. But that Celtics team knew how to win and their strength, i.e., defense, was replicable, helping them play well in close games. Im going to have to say Celts in 6.

I think Odinn makes some interesting points, and if the Sixers were healthy for this series/playoffs I think it'd be a seriously open question. But McGinnis imploded in the playoffs, Free was a non-factor . . . I don't like Havlicek's injury but the success of the '73-76 Celtics proves that they had a combination of players and execution that was better than it looked on paper. And the work of 70sFan suggests that Hondo could at least slow Erving (no mean feat).

Celtics in 5.

Despite Hondo's injury in the playoffs. Him, White, and Cowens were all in their primes and Cowens was the mvp that season. Sixers would have a hard time getting rebounds with both Cowens and Silas putting up at least 13+ that season and 15+ in the playoffs that year.

prolific passer wrote:Despite Hondo's injury in the playoffs. Him, White, and Cowens were all in their primes and Cowens was the mvp that season. Sixers would have a hard time getting rebounds with both Cowens and Silas putting up at least 13+ that season and 15+ in the playoffs that year.

Do you want to convert that observation into a vote?

sansterre wrote:

prolific passer wrote:Despite Hondo's injury in the playoffs. Him, White, and Cowens were all in their primes and Cowens was the mvp that season. Sixers would have a hard time getting rebounds with both Cowens and Silas putting up at least 13+ that season and 15+ in the playoffs that year.

Do you want to convert that observation into a vote?

Celtics in 5

The '73 Celtics take this one 5-1. They advance to play the winner of the '74 Bucks and the '72 Celtics.