RealGM

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1978 Portland Trail Blazers (#27) @ The 1973 Los Angeles Lakers (#6)

Overall:

Record: ‘73 Lakers, 60 wins (7th) > '78 Blazers, 58 wins (12th)
RSRS: ‘73 Lakers, +8.16 (5th) > ‘78 Blazers, +5.92 (13th)
PSRS: '73 Lakers, +9.34 (7th) > ‘78 Blazers, +1.13 (34th)

When the '78 Blazers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '78 Blazers' offense vs '73 Lakers’ defense:

Regular Season: +2.2 Offensive Rating (15th) vs -5.0 Defensive Rating (7th): -2.8 expected
Playoffs: +2.1 Offensive Rating (18th) vs -6.8 Defensive Rating (4th): -4.7 expected

Lineup:

PG: Lionel Hollins, 23.0% SS on -3.3% rTS, 15.3 / 3.3 / 4.5 / 2.2: +0.5 playoff OBPM
SG: Johnny Davis, 18.5% SS on -0.4% rTS, 10.3 / 2.0 / 2.5 / 1.2: -0.3 playoff OBPM
SF: Larry Steele, 20.9% SS on +0.4% rTS, 7.7 / 1.6 / 1.2 / 1.0: -0.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Maurice Lucas, 24.7% SS on -1.3% rTS, 15.7 / 8.7 / 2.4 / 1.6: -0.8 playoff OBPM
C: Tom Owens, 21.0% SS on +3.1% rTS, 9.7 / 6.3 / 1.9 / 0.9: +4.8 playoff OBPM
6th: Bill Walton: 24.2% SS on +3.9% rTS, 18.1 / 12.7 / 4.8 / 3.4: +7.0 playoff OBPM


When the '73 Lakers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '73 Lakers' offense vs '78 Blazers' defense:

Regular Season: +2.6 Offensive Rating (12th) vs -3.7 Defensive Rating (16th): -1.1 expected
Playoffs: +1.2 Offensive Rating (25th) vs +2.7 Defensive Rating (35th): +3.9 expected

Lineup:

PG: Jerry West, 26.9% SS on +3.5% rTS, 20.4 / 3.8 / 7.9
SG: Gail Goodrich, 29.6% SS on +1.2% rTS, 21.3 / 3.1 / 3.9
SF: Jim McMillian, 23.5% SS on -0.3% rTS, 16.9 / 4.9 / 2.4
PF: Bill Bridges, 12.2% SS on +2.0% rTS, 8.8 / 9.7 / 2.4
C: Wilt Chamberlain, 9.9% SS on +19.1% rTS, 11.8 / 16.6 / 4.0
6th: Keith Erickson, 17.4% SS on -3.7% rTS, 8.0 / 3.9 / 2.9

Discussion Questions:

-Injuries: Bill Walton is only playing games 1 & 2.
-This is definitely one of those outliers created by me using a formula instead of using some subjective reasoning. The ‘78 Blazers, in the playoffs, were not a team that belonged in this tournament. But their regular season was excellent (and while the ‘73 Lakers’ season looks better, if we’re adjusting for league environment the two are probably pretty close). Bill Walton was the team’s leading scorer, rebounder, passer and defensive anchor. And in the playoffs he shot over +10% rTS in limited minutes. As long as playoff Bill Walton is in the game, I genuinely believe that the ‘78 Blazers are competitive here. But as soon as he’s off the court all bets are off; the Blazers’ defense didn’t exactly fall apart with Walton out but they gave up an additional 3-4 points a game to the Sonics once the injury happened. And that will cost them margin against the Lakers that they probably can’t afford. It’s just hard to imagine this team competing without Walton. Tom Owens had a fairly strong playoffs, but I don’t expect him to have much luck against Wilt.
-The ‘73 Lakers were really damned good. But their offense did regress in the playoffs slightly; Wilt’s freakish efficiency dropped down to a mortal +5.8% (not adjusted for opposition). So I think that the Blazers’ defense, with Walton, can definitely slow them down. But without Walton? I’m not at all convinced. And on the other side of the ball the Lakers’ defense was absolutely phenomenal. I can’t imagine them not feasting on the Blazers without Walton to run their offense through.
- I’ll be honest, I’m open to arguments for the ‘78 Blazers, but in light of Walton’s injury I don’t see it.


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!



MasterThread

Without Walton, the Blazers can't compete here. They were built around MVP Bill Walton and while Tom Owens and Lloyd Neal were solid backups, they weren't the kind of star that the team needed. LA in sweep.

No way that Blazers would be able to compete without Walton, Lakers in 4-5 games.

If one game Walton fully healthy then maybe 1 game for the Blazers. What could have been for that ‘78 Blazers team. If it were possible, I’d love to see 1978 Walton RAPM numbers (1986, too).

I think you guys are quite harsh on Blazers in here. I know that '78 Sonics wasn't the best team but they were pretty balanced, well-rounded and coached (they were on a 57W pace after Lenny Wilkens took over). The Blazers without Walton still stole 2 games away from the Sonics. And quite frankly the Lakers weren't the team they were before in the previous season. Chamberlain and West weren't the playmaking forces they used to be and that's obvious in Goodrich lesser scoring output.

Vote: the Lakers in 6.

I think that with Walton playing those first two games the Blazers could take one, but once he's out . . . Lakers in 5?

Calling this for the Lakers, 5-0. They advance to face the winner of the '70 Bucks and the '77 Blazers.