1970s Top Team Tourney Ro32, '72 Knicks @ '79 Sonics

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1972 New York Knicks (#21) @ The 1979 Seattle SuperSonics (#12)

Overall:

Record: ‘79 Sonics, 52 wins (23rd) > '72 Knicks, 48 wins (31st)
RSRS: ‘79 Sonics, +2.69 (30th) > '72 Knicks, +2.28 (32nd)
PSRS: ‘'72 Knicks, +9.54 (6th) > ‘79 Sonics, +6.69 (16th)

When the '72 Knicks have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '72 Knicks' offense vs '79 Sonics’ defense:

Regular Season: +0.6 Offensive Rating (27th) vs -3.7 Defensive Rating (15th): -3.1 expected
Playoffs: +4.7 Offensive Rating (8th) vs -5.7 Defensive Rating (9th): -1.0 expected

Lineup:

PG: Walt Frazier, 22.6% SS on +7.3% rTS, 21.5 / 6.2 / 5.4
SG: Earl Monroe, 25.4% SS on -0.7% rTS, 10.6 / 1.4 / 2.0
SF: Bill Bradley 19.2% SS on -0.2% rTS, 14.0 / 3.0 / 3.7
PF: Dave DeBusschere, 19.8% SS on -4.2% rTS, 14.3 / 10.5 / 3.3
C: Jerry Lucas, 18.2% SS on +4.4% rTS, 15.5 / 12.1 / 3.8
6th: Phil Jackson, 20.3% SS on +0.5% rTS, 6.7 / 3.8 / 0.8


When the '79 Sonics have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '79 Sonics' offense vs '72 Knicks' defense:

Regular Season: -1.1 Offensive Rating (36th) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (25th): -2.7 expected
Playoffs: +0.4 Offensive Rating (29th) vs -3.8 Defensive Rating (16th): -3.4 expected

Lineup:

PG: Gus Williams, 28.0% SS on +0.4% rTS, 18.6 / 3.1 / 3.9 / 2.4: +6.2 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 22.0% SS on -3.5% rTS, 15.4 / 4.5 / 3.4 / 2.4: +3.4 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 18.1% SS on -4.6% rTS, 10.6 / 4.8 / 4.3 / 1.0: +0.6 playoff OBPM
PF: Lonnie Shelton, 20.3% SS on +1.4% rTS, 13.1 / 6.0 / 1.4 / 1.9: +1.0 playoff OBPM
C: Jack Sikma, 19.1% SS on -0.1% rTS, 15.1 / 12.0 / 3.1 / 1.7: +0.7 playoff OBPM
6th: Paul Silas, 11.6% SS on -6.2% rTS, 5.4 / 6.8 / 1.4 / 0.6: -2.1 playoff OBPM

Thoughts:

-Injuries: None.
-What’s in a regular season? Neither of these teams were particularly good in the regular season. And both of them were *really* good in the playoffs and both made the Finals. But they did it in different ways. The Knicks were reeling from the loss of Willis Reed early in the regular season, they were still playing Dick Barnett serious minutes. On the former point the Knicks had wisely (or luckily) acquired Jerry Lucas for Cazzie Russell in the offseason, so they at least had a viable starting center. Shortly after the Reed injury they traded for Earl Monroe but, truthfully, they went into the playoffs a fairly unimpressive team. But in the playoffs they dropped Barnett’s minutes considerably (from 29mpg to 11) and gave Monroe more time on the court. The Knicks’ offense went on a tear in the playoffs, led by somewhat by Lucas (+6.1% rTS adjusted on 17.3% of the team’s shots) but the real offensive force was Clyde Frazier, with a blistering +9.6% rTS on 22.3% of the team’s shots. I don’t give the Knicks tons of credit for beating the Bullets in the postseason, but when they played the Celtics (the 1 seed, best SRS in the East) they won in 5 by 8.6 points per game. It was unquestionably dominance. Did the Knicks gets whipped soundly by the ‘72 Lakers (5 games, 4.4 points per game)? Yes. But if we accept that in the playoffs the ‘72 Knicks were only 4.4 points per game worse than one of the best teams ever . . . that makes them very good indeed (Frazier shot over +10% rTS in the Finals).
- The ‘79 Sonics were an excellent defense in the regular season that became smothering in the playoffs. Led by Dennis Johnson at his defensive best, the ‘79 Sonics played outstanding shot defense, generated turnovers well, didn’t allow offensive rebounds and didn’t foul much; they were great all-around. But their offense . . . Silas, and the Johnsons were weak scorers, while Sikma and Lonnie Shelton only held their own. Everything was built around Gus Williams’ ability to take a ton of shots and make them at sufficient efficiency. In the ‘79 playoffs he would increase his volume by an astounding 5.3% of his team’s shots while barely losing efficiency. Williams’ incredible shot creation abilities were key to the team and he lifted that offense just enough that, when combined with the Sonics’ fierce defense, the Sonics were a tough team to tangle with.
- I feel like this series comes down to guard play. Walt Frazier established himself as fairly unstoppable in the playoffs, probably the best non-volume scoring guard in the 70s. Do the Sonics put DJ on him? I think it’s possible; Williams doesn’t give up much size to Monroe. And DJ in the ‘79 playoffs was one of the most dominant defensive guards in the decade. Can he stop Frazier? Of course not. But can he substantively slow him down? It’s possible. And if Frazier slows down, can the Knicks’ offense be had? On the other side, the Sonics are incredibly dependent on Williams’ volume shot-making (which is not particularly efficient). If Frazier can drop Williams’ efficiency even somewhat (2 or 3%?) it’s going to seriously compromise the Sonics’ offense. How do those matchups play out?


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[sansterre]

I'll be honest, I really don't know about this one. But I'm ultimately betting against the Sonics' offense. I think young Gus Williams will struggle (some) with Frazier on him, and I think that the Sonics' offense is really going to suffer. I am happy to be persuaded.

Knicks in 6.

[homecourtloss]

That four year run by the Knicks from 1970–1974 you talked about in your top 100 teams thread makes this team quite formidable even without Reed. Beating up a +5 SRS Celtics team in that ‘72 playoffs while running impressive offense makes me want to take my chances with the sans-Reed ‘72 Knicks trusting its offense over the very, very good ‘79 Sonics’ defense but overall anemic offense in both the regular and post seasons.

Going to go Knicks in 6.

[Odinn21]

I'm actually one of very few Gus Williams believers, he was just a great player. But Walt Frazier is a nightmare matchup for a team like the late '70s Sonics. It's just as simple as that in this matchup.

Vote: The Knicks in 6.

[70sFan]

As good as DJ defense was, he wouldn't be able to contain Frazier. Walt faced a lot of strong defensive guards and usually didn't struggle against them.

Meanwhile, Gus being guarded by Frazier would be rough for Sonics offense. Very, very rough...

Usually, Sonics frontcourt could be a key but not in this case. DeBusschere would be a tough matchup for Shelton on both ends of the court and Lucas would spread the floor and make Sikma's work tough on defense.

Knicks in 6 games after low scoring, defensive minded series.

[sansterre]

I'm glad to have my instincts backed up by people that know the era far better than I do. The Sonics may be the better team here (maybe) but '72 Knicks are a nightmare matchup.

'72 Knicks take this one 4-0, and advance to face the winner of the '78 Sonics and the '72 Bucks.