1970s Top Team Tourney Ro32, '72 Knicks @ '79 Sonics
Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:26 pm
Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.
The 1972 New York Knicks (#21) @ The 1979 Seattle SuperSonics (#12)
Overall:
Record: ‘79 Sonics, 52 wins (23rd) > '72 Knicks, 48 wins (31st)
RSRS: ‘79 Sonics, +2.69 (30th) > '72 Knicks, +2.28 (32nd)
PSRS: ‘'72 Knicks, +9.54 (6th) > ‘79 Sonics, +6.69 (16th)
When the '72 Knicks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Knicks' offense vs '79 Sonics’ defense:
Regular Season: +0.6 Offensive Rating (27th) vs -3.7 Defensive Rating (15th): -3.1 expected
Playoffs: +4.7 Offensive Rating (8th) vs -5.7 Defensive Rating (9th): -1.0 expected
Lineup:
PG: Walt Frazier, 22.6% SS on +7.3% rTS, 21.5 / 6.2 / 5.4
SG: Earl Monroe, 25.4% SS on -0.7% rTS, 10.6 / 1.4 / 2.0
SF: Bill Bradley 19.2% SS on -0.2% rTS, 14.0 / 3.0 / 3.7
PF: Dave DeBusschere, 19.8% SS on -4.2% rTS, 14.3 / 10.5 / 3.3
C: Jerry Lucas, 18.2% SS on +4.4% rTS, 15.5 / 12.1 / 3.8
6th: Phil Jackson, 20.3% SS on +0.5% rTS, 6.7 / 3.8 / 0.8
When the '79 Sonics have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '79 Sonics' offense vs '72 Knicks' defense:
Regular Season: -1.1 Offensive Rating (36th) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (25th): -2.7 expected
Playoffs: +0.4 Offensive Rating (29th) vs -3.8 Defensive Rating (16th): -3.4 expected
Lineup:
PG: Gus Williams, 28.0% SS on +0.4% rTS, 18.6 / 3.1 / 3.9 / 2.4: +6.2 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 22.0% SS on -3.5% rTS, 15.4 / 4.5 / 3.4 / 2.4: +3.4 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 18.1% SS on -4.6% rTS, 10.6 / 4.8 / 4.3 / 1.0: +0.6 playoff OBPM
PF: Lonnie Shelton, 20.3% SS on +1.4% rTS, 13.1 / 6.0 / 1.4 / 1.9: +1.0 playoff OBPM
C: Jack Sikma, 19.1% SS on -0.1% rTS, 15.1 / 12.0 / 3.1 / 1.7: +0.7 playoff OBPM
6th: Paul Silas, 11.6% SS on -6.2% rTS, 5.4 / 6.8 / 1.4 / 0.6: -2.1 playoff OBPM
Thoughts:
-Injuries: None.
-What’s in a regular season? Neither of these teams were particularly good in the regular season. And both of them were *really* good in the playoffs and both made the Finals. But they did it in different ways. The Knicks were reeling from the loss of Willis Reed early in the regular season, they were still playing Dick Barnett serious minutes. On the former point the Knicks had wisely (or luckily) acquired Jerry Lucas for Cazzie Russell in the offseason, so they at least had a viable starting center. Shortly after the Reed injury they traded for Earl Monroe but, truthfully, they went into the playoffs a fairly unimpressive team. But in the playoffs they dropped Barnett’s minutes considerably (from 29mpg to 11) and gave Monroe more time on the court. The Knicks’ offense went on a tear in the playoffs, led by somewhat by Lucas (+6.1% rTS adjusted on 17.3% of the team’s shots) but the real offensive force was Clyde Frazier, with a blistering +9.6% rTS on 22.3% of the team’s shots. I don’t give the Knicks tons of credit for beating the Bullets in the postseason, but when they played the Celtics (the 1 seed, best SRS in the East) they won in 5 by 8.6 points per game. It was unquestionably dominance. Did the Knicks gets whipped soundly by the ‘72 Lakers (5 games, 4.4 points per game)? Yes. But if we accept that in the playoffs the ‘72 Knicks were only 4.4 points per game worse than one of the best teams ever . . . that makes them very good indeed (Frazier shot over +10% rTS in the Finals).
- The ‘79 Sonics were an excellent defense in the regular season that became smothering in the playoffs. Led by Dennis Johnson at his defensive best, the ‘79 Sonics played outstanding shot defense, generated turnovers well, didn’t allow offensive rebounds and didn’t foul much; they were great all-around. But their offense . . . Silas, and the Johnsons were weak scorers, while Sikma and Lonnie Shelton only held their own. Everything was built around Gus Williams’ ability to take a ton of shots and make them at sufficient efficiency. In the ‘79 playoffs he would increase his volume by an astounding 5.3% of his team’s shots while barely losing efficiency. Williams’ incredible shot creation abilities were key to the team and he lifted that offense just enough that, when combined with the Sonics’ fierce defense, the Sonics were a tough team to tangle with.
- I feel like this series comes down to guard play. Walt Frazier established himself as fairly unstoppable in the playoffs, probably the best non-volume scoring guard in the 70s. Do the Sonics put DJ on him? I think it’s possible; Williams doesn’t give up much size to Monroe. And DJ in the ‘79 playoffs was one of the most dominant defensive guards in the decade. Can he stop Frazier? Of course not. But can he substantively slow him down? It’s possible. And if Frazier slows down, can the Knicks’ offense be had? On the other side, the Sonics are incredibly dependent on Williams’ volume shot-making (which is not particularly efficient). If Frazier can drop Williams’ efficiency even somewhat (2 or 3%?) it’s going to seriously compromise the Sonics’ offense. How do those matchups play out?
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
MasterThread
The 1972 New York Knicks (#21) @ The 1979 Seattle SuperSonics (#12)
Overall:
Record: ‘79 Sonics, 52 wins (23rd) > '72 Knicks, 48 wins (31st)
RSRS: ‘79 Sonics, +2.69 (30th) > '72 Knicks, +2.28 (32nd)
PSRS: ‘'72 Knicks, +9.54 (6th) > ‘79 Sonics, +6.69 (16th)
When the '72 Knicks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Knicks' offense vs '79 Sonics’ defense:
Regular Season: +0.6 Offensive Rating (27th) vs -3.7 Defensive Rating (15th): -3.1 expected
Playoffs: +4.7 Offensive Rating (8th) vs -5.7 Defensive Rating (9th): -1.0 expected
Lineup:
PG: Walt Frazier, 22.6% SS on +7.3% rTS, 21.5 / 6.2 / 5.4
SG: Earl Monroe, 25.4% SS on -0.7% rTS, 10.6 / 1.4 / 2.0
SF: Bill Bradley 19.2% SS on -0.2% rTS, 14.0 / 3.0 / 3.7
PF: Dave DeBusschere, 19.8% SS on -4.2% rTS, 14.3 / 10.5 / 3.3
C: Jerry Lucas, 18.2% SS on +4.4% rTS, 15.5 / 12.1 / 3.8
6th: Phil Jackson, 20.3% SS on +0.5% rTS, 6.7 / 3.8 / 0.8
When the '79 Sonics have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '79 Sonics' offense vs '72 Knicks' defense:
Regular Season: -1.1 Offensive Rating (36th) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (25th): -2.7 expected
Playoffs: +0.4 Offensive Rating (29th) vs -3.8 Defensive Rating (16th): -3.4 expected
Lineup:
PG: Gus Williams, 28.0% SS on +0.4% rTS, 18.6 / 3.1 / 3.9 / 2.4: +6.2 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 22.0% SS on -3.5% rTS, 15.4 / 4.5 / 3.4 / 2.4: +3.4 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 18.1% SS on -4.6% rTS, 10.6 / 4.8 / 4.3 / 1.0: +0.6 playoff OBPM
PF: Lonnie Shelton, 20.3% SS on +1.4% rTS, 13.1 / 6.0 / 1.4 / 1.9: +1.0 playoff OBPM
C: Jack Sikma, 19.1% SS on -0.1% rTS, 15.1 / 12.0 / 3.1 / 1.7: +0.7 playoff OBPM
6th: Paul Silas, 11.6% SS on -6.2% rTS, 5.4 / 6.8 / 1.4 / 0.6: -2.1 playoff OBPM
Thoughts:
-Injuries: None.
-What’s in a regular season? Neither of these teams were particularly good in the regular season. And both of them were *really* good in the playoffs and both made the Finals. But they did it in different ways. The Knicks were reeling from the loss of Willis Reed early in the regular season, they were still playing Dick Barnett serious minutes. On the former point the Knicks had wisely (or luckily) acquired Jerry Lucas for Cazzie Russell in the offseason, so they at least had a viable starting center. Shortly after the Reed injury they traded for Earl Monroe but, truthfully, they went into the playoffs a fairly unimpressive team. But in the playoffs they dropped Barnett’s minutes considerably (from 29mpg to 11) and gave Monroe more time on the court. The Knicks’ offense went on a tear in the playoffs, led by somewhat by Lucas (+6.1% rTS adjusted on 17.3% of the team’s shots) but the real offensive force was Clyde Frazier, with a blistering +9.6% rTS on 22.3% of the team’s shots. I don’t give the Knicks tons of credit for beating the Bullets in the postseason, but when they played the Celtics (the 1 seed, best SRS in the East) they won in 5 by 8.6 points per game. It was unquestionably dominance. Did the Knicks gets whipped soundly by the ‘72 Lakers (5 games, 4.4 points per game)? Yes. But if we accept that in the playoffs the ‘72 Knicks were only 4.4 points per game worse than one of the best teams ever . . . that makes them very good indeed (Frazier shot over +10% rTS in the Finals).
- The ‘79 Sonics were an excellent defense in the regular season that became smothering in the playoffs. Led by Dennis Johnson at his defensive best, the ‘79 Sonics played outstanding shot defense, generated turnovers well, didn’t allow offensive rebounds and didn’t foul much; they were great all-around. But their offense . . . Silas, and the Johnsons were weak scorers, while Sikma and Lonnie Shelton only held their own. Everything was built around Gus Williams’ ability to take a ton of shots and make them at sufficient efficiency. In the ‘79 playoffs he would increase his volume by an astounding 5.3% of his team’s shots while barely losing efficiency. Williams’ incredible shot creation abilities were key to the team and he lifted that offense just enough that, when combined with the Sonics’ fierce defense, the Sonics were a tough team to tangle with.
- I feel like this series comes down to guard play. Walt Frazier established himself as fairly unstoppable in the playoffs, probably the best non-volume scoring guard in the 70s. Do the Sonics put DJ on him? I think it’s possible; Williams doesn’t give up much size to Monroe. And DJ in the ‘79 playoffs was one of the most dominant defensive guards in the decade. Can he stop Frazier? Of course not. But can he substantively slow him down? It’s possible. And if Frazier slows down, can the Knicks’ offense be had? On the other side, the Sonics are incredibly dependent on Williams’ volume shot-making (which is not particularly efficient). If Frazier can drop Williams’ efficiency even somewhat (2 or 3%?) it’s going to seriously compromise the Sonics’ offense. How do those matchups play out?
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
Spoiler:
MasterThread