[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird

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[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#1 » by Odinn21 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:00 pm

Hello.

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 11:00 EST).

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;
Spoiler:
1. Bill Russell vs. Magic Johnson
2. Hakeem Olajuwon vs. Larry Bird
3. Michael Jordan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
4. LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Shaquille O'Neal

6. LeBron James vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. Michael Jordan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
8. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Larry Bird
9. Tim Duncan vs. Magic Johnson
10. Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain

11. Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird
12. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
13. LeBron James vs. Bill Russell
14. Tim Duncan vs. Wilt Chamberlain
15. Magic Johnson vs. Shaquille O'Neal

16. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Bill Russell
17. Shaquille O'Neal vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
18. Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird
19. LeBron James vs. Wilt Chamberlain
20. Michael Jordan vs. Tim Duncan

21. LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan
22. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Wilt Chamberlain
23. Tim Duncan vs. Larry Bird
24. Bill Russell vs. Shaquille O'Neal
25. Magic Johnson vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

26. LeBron James vs. Larry Bird
27. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Magic Johnson
28. Michael Jordan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
29. Bill Russell vs. Tim Duncan
30. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

31. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Shaquille O'Neal
32. LeBron James vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
33. Bill Russell vs. Larry Bird
34. Michael Jordan vs. Magic Johnson
35. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Tim Duncan

36. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Larry Bird
37. Tim Duncan vs. Shaquille O'Neal
38. Bill Russell vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
39. LeBron James vs. Magic Johnson
40. Michael Jordan vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

41. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Larry Bird
42. LeBron James vs. Shaquille O'Neal
43. Wilt Chamberlain vs. Magic Johnson
44. Tim Duncan vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
45. Michael Jordan vs. Bill Russell


---

Spoiler:
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70sFan wrote:.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#2 » by Odinn21 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:56 pm

Coming from the previous thread.
70sFan wrote:Another very close one. The next one could cause some heated discussions between Bird and Magic fans.


I think this is going to be another one we'll end up with certainly different results. :D

---

Shame that YouTube has limited number of full games for before 1990s. I wanted to have Bird's game 2 performance against the Bucks in '84 which was masterful from him on defense too. But there's not a single video about it on YouTube, let alone a full game footage.

These are the games I have for this one;




This 2nd game for Magic is available in a playlist.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#3 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:14 pm

I just want to clarify I haven't been active in this project for two reasons. First off I'm currently following a Masters course so my free time is limited and secondly and probably even more importantly I've really had trouble with these season to season comparisons as the majority of my opinions are formed by the limited amount of stats we have available but I hope to be able to contribute to the project again but I'm afraid I won't be able to do so on a consistent basis.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#4 » by 70sFan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:48 pm

Bird's top seasons:

1986
1984
1987
1985
1988
1981
1982

Magic's best seasons:

1987
1990
1988
1989
1991
1986
1985

My list:

1. 1987 Magic Johnson - I know it's a controversial decision, but I consider Magic to be a better, more resiliant offensive player and it matters more than any potential defensive advantage that Bird has. I'm just not that high on Bird's defense in general and Magic wasn't as bad as some try to portrait him.
2. 1986 Larry Bird - Magic's defense got considerably worse in 1990 and by this point Bird's edge is significant enough to put him ahead. No other Magic season is complete enough to beat 1986 Bird.

3. 1990 Magic Johnson - although Bird's postseason run was amazing in 1984, I don't think his RS was on par with 1990 Magic. Even though the defensive gap still exists, Bird was a bit worse offensively in 1984 compared to 1986.
4. 1984 Larry Bird - close battle between 1984 and 1988, but Magic missing games in RS makes this choice easier.
5. 1988 Magic Johnson - highly underrated season overall.

6. 1987 Larry Bird - again, Magic missing games in the finals gives Bird the edge here. I'd probably prefer healthy 1989 Magic over 1987 Bird to be honest.
7. 1985 Larry Bird - I missed him for some reason.
8. 1989 Magic Johnson - could be higher without missed games in the finals.

9. 1991 Magic Johnson - now we have the battle between 1991 Magic and 1988 Bird. By this point both players are below average defensively and I'm just more impressed with Magic offense overall.
10. 1988 Larry Bird - one of Bird's finest offensive RS performances, a shame that he underperformed so much in the playoffs.
11. 1986 Magic Johnson - I'm not sure how to judge 1986 Magic, when I watch the tape I view him as a basically finished product and his defense was also quite good. The problem is that his role was considerably smaller than in 1988-91 period.

12. 1985 Magic Johnson - the beginning of Magic's prime with improved shooting, post game and decision making.


Some thoughts:

- ranking Magic and Bird peak seasons is basically impossible, I have to be honest - I simply prefer Magic's game overall,
- 1988 vs 1984 is tough to evaluate for me as well,
- I'm also unsure about 1985 vs 1981.

Overall, I hope to see more lists with explainations because I don't feel very strong about my list.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#5 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:06 pm

70sFan wrote:
My list:

1. 1987 Magic Johnson - I know it's a controversial decision, but I consider Magic to be a better, more resiliant offensive player and it matters more than any potential defensive advantage that Bird has. I'm just not that high on Bird's defense in general and Magic wasn't as bad as some try to portrait him.
2. 1986 Larry Bird - Magic's defense got considerably worse in 1990 and by this point Bird's edge is significant enough to put him ahead. No other Magic season is complete enough to beat 1986 Bird.

3. 1990 Magic Johnson - although Bird's postseason run was amazing in 1984, I don't think his RS was on par with 1990 Magic. Even though the defensive gap still exists, Bird was a bit worse offensively in 1984 compared to 1986.
4. 1984 Larry Bird - close battle between 1984 and 1988, but Magic missing games in RS makes this choice easier.
5. 1988 Magic Johnson - highly underrated season overall.

6. 1987 Larry Bird - again, Magic missing games in the finals gives Bird the edge here. I'd probably prefer healthy 1989 Magic over 1987 Bird to be honest.
7. 1989 Magic Johnson - could be higher without missed games in the finals.

8. 1991 Magic Johnson - now we have the battle between 1991 Magic and 1988 Bird. By this point both players are below average defensively and I'm just more impressed with Magic offense overall.
9. 1988 Larry Bird - one of Bird's finest offensive RS performances, a shame that he underperformed so much in the playoffs.
10. 1986 Magic Johnson - I'm not sure how to judge 1986 Magic, when I watch the tape I view him as a basically finished product and his defense was also quite good. The problem is that his role was considerably smaller than in 1988-91 period.

11. 1985 Magic Johnson - the beginning of Magic's prime with improved shooting, post game and decision making.
12. 1981 Larry Bird - excellent season all around, even with mediocre shooting series in the finals.

Some thoughts:

- ranking Magic and Bird peak seasons is basically impossible, I have to be honest - I simply prefer Magic's game overall,
- 1988 vs 1984 is tough to evaluate for me as well,
- I'm also unsure about 1985 vs 1981.

Overall, I hope to see more lists with explainations because I don't feel very strong about my list.


Good list overall but I did notice you left out 85 Bird who you have above his 81&88 versions so you may want to correct that.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#6 » by 70sFan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:08 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
My list:

1. 1987 Magic Johnson - I know it's a controversial decision, but I consider Magic to be a better, more resiliant offensive player and it matters more than any potential defensive advantage that Bird has. I'm just not that high on Bird's defense in general and Magic wasn't as bad as some try to portrait him.
2. 1986 Larry Bird - Magic's defense got considerably worse in 1990 and by this point Bird's edge is significant enough to put him ahead. No other Magic season is complete enough to beat 1986 Bird.

3. 1990 Magic Johnson - although Bird's postseason run was amazing in 1984, I don't think his RS was on par with 1990 Magic. Even though the defensive gap still exists, Bird was a bit worse offensively in 1984 compared to 1986.
4. 1984 Larry Bird - close battle between 1984 and 1988, but Magic missing games in RS makes this choice easier.
5. 1988 Magic Johnson - highly underrated season overall.

6. 1987 Larry Bird - again, Magic missing games in the finals gives Bird the edge here. I'd probably prefer healthy 1989 Magic over 1987 Bird to be honest.
7. 1989 Magic Johnson - could be higher without missed games in the finals.

8. 1991 Magic Johnson - now we have the battle between 1991 Magic and 1988 Bird. By this point both players are below average defensively and I'm just more impressed with Magic offense overall.
9. 1988 Larry Bird - one of Bird's finest offensive RS performances, a shame that he underperformed so much in the playoffs.
10. 1986 Magic Johnson - I'm not sure how to judge 1986 Magic, when I watch the tape I view him as a basically finished product and his defense was also quite good. The problem is that his role was considerably smaller than in 1988-91 period.

11. 1985 Magic Johnson - the beginning of Magic's prime with improved shooting, post game and decision making.
12. 1981 Larry Bird - excellent season all around, even with mediocre shooting series in the finals.

Some thoughts:

- ranking Magic and Bird peak seasons is basically impossible, I have to be honest - I simply prefer Magic's game overall,
- 1988 vs 1984 is tough to evaluate for me as well,
- I'm also unsure about 1985 vs 1981.

Overall, I hope to see more lists with explainations because I don't feel very strong about my list.


Good list overall but I did notice you left out 85 Bird who you have above his 81&88 versions so you may want to correct that.

Thank you, I'll correct that in a minute!
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#7 » by falcolombardi » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:15 pm

70sFan wrote:Bird's top seasons:

1986
1984
1987
1985
1988
1981
1982

Magic's best seasons:

1987
1990
1988
1989
1991
1986
1985

My list:

1. 1987 Magic Johnson - I know it's a controversial decision, but I consider Magic to be a better, more resiliant offensive player and it matters more than any potential defensive advantage that Bird has. I'm just not that high on Bird's defense in general and Magic wasn't as bad as some try to portrait him.
2. 1986 Larry Bird - Magic's defense got considerably worse in 1990 and by this point Bird's edge is significant enough to put him ahead. No other Magic season is complete enough to beat 1986 Bird.

3. 1990 Magic Johnson - although Bird's postseason run was amazing in 1984, I don't think his RS was on par with 1990 Magic. Even though the defensive gap still exists, Bird was a bit worse offensively in 1984 compared to 1986.
4. 1984 Larry Bird - close battle between 1984 and 1988, but Magic missing games in RS makes this choice easier.
5. 1988 Magic Johnson - highly underrated season overall.

6. 1987 Larry Bird - again, Magic missing games in the finals gives Bird the edge here. I'd probably prefer healthy 1989 Magic over 1987 Bird to be honest.
7. 1989 Magic Johnson - could be higher without missed games in the finals.

8. 1991 Magic Johnson - now we have the battle between 1991 Magic and 1988 Bird. By this point both players are below average defensively and I'm just more impressed with Magic offense overall.
9. 1985 Larry Bird - I missed him for some reason.
10. 1988 Larry Bird - one of Bird's finest offensive RS performances, a shame that he underperformed so much in the playoffs.
11. 1986 Magic Johnson - I'm not sure how to judge 1986 Magic, when I watch the tape I view him as a basically finished product and his defense was also quite good. The problem is that his role was considerably smaller than in 1988-91 period.

12. 1985 Magic Johnson - the beginning of Magic's prime with improved shooting, post game and decision making.


Some thoughts:

- ranking Magic and Bird peak seasons is basically impossible, I have to be honest - I simply prefer Magic's game overall,
- 1988 vs 1984 is tough to evaluate for me as well,
- I'm also unsure about 1985 vs 1981.

Overall, I hope to see more lists with explainations because I don't feel very strong about my list.


how do you evaluate bird apparent portability/ceiling raising advantage?

i personally believe it doesnt mean much when both players had great talent around yet it was still magic who teached slightly higher heights with it

but others thinl that bird game is inherently more rarr or valuable to a strong team that may already have a ballhandler (which is a point ben Taylor does)
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#8 » by ty 4191 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:48 pm

Bird played in a drastically better/tougher conference than Magic Johnson did in the 80's.

Overall, the East played .532 ball against the West from 1979-1980 through 1988-1989.

The Celtics had a .754 winning percentage against the Western Conference during those years.

The Lakers had a .672 winning percentage against the Eastern Conference during those years.

All rankings of Bird vs. Magic should be tempered as such.

Strength of competition is paramount in sports.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#9 » by falcolombardi » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:01 pm

ty 4191 wrote:Bird played in a drastically better/tougher conference than Magic Johnson did in the 80's.

Overall, the East played .532 ball against the West from 1979-1980 through 1988-1989.

The Celtics had a .754 winning percentage against the Western Conference during those years.

The Lakers had a .672 winning percentage against the Eastern Conference during those years.

All rankings of Bird vs. Magic should be tempered as such.

Strength of competition is paramount in sports.


that difference between conferences would account for like 1 win a year
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#10 » by ty 4191 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:08 pm

falcolombardi wrote:that difference between conferences would account for like 1 win a year


The Celtics averaged 62 wins per season against the Western Conference. And played (obviously) drastically more games against the Eastern Conference.

The Lakers averaged 55 wins per season against the Eastern Conference. And played (obviously) drastically more games against the much weaker Western Conference.

So, no. Your statement is false.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#11 » by falcolombardi » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:17 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:that difference between conferences would account for like 1 win a year


The Celtics averaged 62 wins per season against the Western Conference. And played (obviously) drastically more games against the Eastern Conference.

The Lakers averaged 55 wins per season against the Eastern Conference. And played (obviously) drastically more games against the much weaker Western Conference.

So, no. Your statement is false.


my point is that the difference in conference strenght is not that big as far as regular season record goes


imagine a west team that goes 50-50 vs the west and a east team that goes 50-50 vs the east . i dont know the conference games distribución of the 80's so i will use current league as am example

both teams play the other conference a fair bit too, so the difference is that the western team plays the tougher west conference for some extra games (22 games to be exact)

if the west team goes 50-50 vs west and 53-47 vs east, that over a 22 game sample is a bit over 1 extra expected win if they played in the east
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#12 » by homecourtloss » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:50 am

1. 1986 Bird: I thought about this for a while and while I love Magic’s offensive genius, I see Bird’s overall game providing the most lift for a team and prefer him to 1987 Magic. This is the best combination of offense and defense for Bird, probably my favorite team to watch highlights of and basketball played so beautifully. I really wish we could have gotten a version that combines the fluidity of shooting that a 1988 Bird had with the motor and body of a younger Bird (Bird physically looks the best as a rookie or in 1981 as far as lean muscle and proportions are concerned); we never really got that but this is as close to a version we have.
2. 1987 Magic: Lynchpin for all time great offense, great post season run. His defense hadn’t started to diminish yet.
3. 1984 Bird: Very, very close to 1990 Magic but see a less polished offensive aboard with a greater motor than in 1986 and more actively defensively.
4. 1990 Magic: Just so good on offense. The defense had noticeably began to slide. The final two games of the season against a very good Suns team show how good he was on offense as he tried to score the ball himself, which he did. 43 ppg on 67% TS, absolutely perfect rhythm control, using his natural movements to get into spots, bouncing off defense, scoring in the post, drawing fouls...an amazing player to watch.
5. 1985 Bird: the injury lowers his value but overall as a player, I prefer this Bird to any non 1987/1990 Magic season
6. 1988 Magic: Kareem finally not a factor yet Magic keeps the team moving righ along
7. 1987 Bird: these two (‘87 and ‘88)offensive seasons of Bird’s as the primary catalyst for great Celtics’ offense is something to really marvel at especially given his injuries but lowered motor hurts him on defense
8. 1989 Magic
9. 1988 Bird: one of my favorite Bird seasons because of the way he developed his shot and how smooth and quick his release was. If we could combine this season with the motor and physicality of a younger Bird...it was an incredible offensive season
10. 1986 Magic
11. 1991 Magic: Lakers shouldn’t have been as good on offense as they were—it’s a testament to how good Magic was offensively. Vlade’s emergence as a strong defensive force helped bolster that defense that was top 5, but that Lakers team wasn’t as good as Portland but won the series (Portland kind of threw away games 1 and 6–Portland vs. Chicago would have been a better series
12. 1983 Bird: Disappointing end to the season but all the wings were there that the 1984–1988 run was upon us .
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#13 » by Odinn21 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:22 am

falcolombardi wrote:that difference between conferences would account for like 1 win a year

EC-WC balance in the '80s was the reverse of EC-WC balance in the '00s. But I think this would be more compelling for competition level within conferences when we compared Larry Bird and Magic Johnson;

Postseason competition in the conferences

Spoiler:
Magic Johnson's opponents in the WC from 1981-82 to 1990-91;
27 series / 45.1 wins / 45.7 expected wins / 1.58 SRS / 9.5 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 4 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 5 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Larry Bird's opponents in the EC from 1979-80 to 1987-88;
23 series / 47.6 wins / 47.2 expected wins / 2.67 SRS / 7.1 average SRS rank / -1.8 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 22.2% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 18.5% against top 5 defense. 14.8% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 47.8% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 39.1% against top 5 defense. 52.2% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.3 minutes. (4830 minutes in 123 games, 4.56 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.5 minutes. (4848 minutes in 114 games, 4.96 games per series.)


Postseason competition in the conferences excluding 1st rounds

Spoiler:
Magic's opponents
19 series / 47.9 wins / 48.4 expected wins / 2.57 SRS / 7.6 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 2 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 4 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Bird's opponents
17 series / 51.4 wins / 51.0 expected wins / 4.03 SRS / 4.4 average SRS rank / -2.5 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 21.1% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 21.1% against top 5 defense. 21.1% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 64.7% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 52.9% against top 5 defense. 70.6% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.5 minutes. (3874 minutes in 98 games, 5.16 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.2 minutes. (3963 minutes in 94 games, 5.53 games per series.)


In short, the disparity between the conferences is a legit concern to be addressed in a comparison between Bird and Magic.

---

Dutchball97 wrote:I just want to clarify I haven't been active in this project for two reasons. First off I'm currently following a Masters course so my free time is limited and secondly and probably even more importantly I've really had trouble with these season to season comparisons as the majority of my opinions are formed by the limited amount of stats we have available but I hope to be able to contribute to the project again but I'm afraid I won't be able to do so on a consistent basis.

I was getting worried a bit. :D Glad to get an update from you. I hope you get your work done without a hitch. Cheers.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#14 » by falcolombardi » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:35 am

Odinn21 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:that difference between conferences would account for like 1 win a year

EC-WC balance in the '80s was the reverse of EC-WC balance in the '00s. But I think this would be more compelling for competition level within conferences when we compared Larry Bird and Magic Johnson;

Postseason competition in the conferences

Spoiler:
Magic Johnson's opponents in the WC from 1981-82 to 1990-91;
27 series / 45.1 wins / 45.7 expected wins / 1.58 SRS / 9.5 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 4 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 5 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Larry Bird's opponents in the EC from 1979-80 to 1987-88;
23 series / 47.6 wins / 47.2 expected wins / 2.67 SRS / 7.1 average SRS rank / -1.8 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 22.2% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 18.5% against top 5 defense. 14.8% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 47.8% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 39.1% against top 5 defense. 52.2% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.3 minutes. (4830 minutes in 123 games, 4.56 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.5 minutes. (4848 minutes in 114 games, 4.96 games per series.)


Postseason competition in the conferences excluding 1st rounds

Spoiler:
Magic's opponents
19 series / 47.9 wins / 48.4 expected wins / 2.57 SRS / 7.6 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 2 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 4 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Bird's opponents
17 series / 51.4 wins / 51.0 expected wins / 4.03 SRS / 4.4 average SRS rank / -2.5 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 21.1% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 21.1% against top 5 defense. 21.1% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 64.7% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 52.9% against top 5 defense. 70.6% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.5 minutes. (3874 minutes in 98 games, 5.16 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.2 minutes. (3963 minutes in 94 games, 5.53 games per series.)


In short, the disparity between the conferences is a legit concern to be addressed in a comparison between Bird and Magic.

---

Dutchball97 wrote:I just want to clarify I haven't been active in this project for two reasons. First off I'm currently following a Masters course so my free time is limited and secondly and probably even more importantly I've really had trouble with these season to season comparisons as the majority of my opinions are formed by the limited amount of stats we have available but I hope to be able to contribute to the project again but I'm afraid I won't be able to do so on a consistent basis.

I was getting worried a bit. :D Glad to get an update from you. I hope you get your work done without a hitch. Cheers.


for sure, i just meant in regards to regular season récords

people overstate imo the record inflation of a weaker conference
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#15 » by Djoker » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:42 am

I'm not really strongly considering any Bird years prior to 1984 (he was clearly worse in terms of scoring) or after 1988 (injuries). As such Magic has more years that will make the top 12 than Bird. I consider 1985 and 1986 Magic better than any version of Bird outside of his five year peak. With that being said, I do consider Bird as being a bit better when it's peak vs peak. Magic was more resilient offensively in terms of his raw numbers and offensive impact but Bird was more effective in the half court and was the much better defender. And unlike Magic he did play more off-ball and put up amazing numbers while handling the ball much less.

Top 5 Bird Seasons:

1986
1987
1984
1985
1988

Top 7 Magic Seasons:

1987
1990
1988
1989
1991
1985
1986

Top 12 Combined Seasons:

1.1986 Bird
2 1987 Magic
3.1987 Bird
4.1984 Bird
5. 1990 Magic
6. 1988 Magic
7. 1989 Magic
8. 1985 Bird
9. 1988 Bird
10. 1990 Magic
11. 1985 Magic
12. 1986 Magic
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#16 » by Dutchball97 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:33 am

1. Larry Bird, 1986 - Magic is generally ranked ahead of Bird on All-Time lists due to better longevity and better play-off consistency so I expect the majority of seasons here will be Magic's but I do think at his best Bird was simply better than Magic ever was.
2. Larry Bird, 1984 - Actually a pretty close call between this season and 87 Magic
3. Magic Johnson, 1987 - Magic's signature season.
4. Magic Johnson, 1990 - I was going to put this slightly lower due to a relatively short post-season but his performance against the Suns, while Worthy was nowhere to be found that series, convinces me this season deserves to be here. Especially considering this might just be Magic's best regular season as well.
5. Larry Bird, 1987 - Clearly a notch below his 86 and 84 seasons in the post-season but still very strong.
6. Larry Bird, 1985 - I came very close to putting 89 Magic ahead of both 85 and 87 for Bird but the missed game and overall lackluster performance in he 89 final from Magic slides him down a bit.
7. Magic Johnson, 1989 - Still a great season though.
8. Magic Johnson, 1991 - Not as good defensively anymore but he makes up for it by still excelling at the offensive end.
9. Larry Bird, 1988 - Similar season as Magic's 91 but slightly less impressive in the play-offs imo.
10. Magic Johnson, 1988 - Still a clear prime season for Magic but all the stats we have for this era point to him having a bit of a down year on the offensive end compared to the seasons right before and after it.
11. Magic Johnson, 1986 - Not quite Magic at his best yet but he was quickly getting there.
12. Magic Johnson, 1985 - Thought about going with 83 Bird here but Magic's much deeper and more complete play-off runs in 85 and 86 gives him the edge.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#17 » by homecourtloss » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:10 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:9. Larry Bird, 1988 - Similar season as Magic's 91 but slightly less impressive in the play-offs imo.


The series vs. the Pistons certainly hurts Bird. He wasn’t close to his best physically and wound up playing a poor series and the Celtics lost. Ainge also fell off. Credit to the Pistons’ defense. An average series by Bird I think wins it for them and they have a shot against a Lakers team with a diminished Kareem who had punished them in the 1987 series.

It’s interesting to see how low his motor is in that series and interesting to see just how much offensive and defensive actions throughout his career happened as a result of that motor. In the regular season, this was the best Celtics offensive team ever with so many things coming together: Bird, though less physically able, becoming a high volume (for that time) smooth three-point shooter, Ainge the same thing and having his most efficient season, McHale seemingly not missing shots and getting to the FT line, Parish having a high efficiency season, and so on.

+7.4 ORtg., by far the best offense relative to league in Celtics’ franchise history and pretty much tied with the Lakers’ +7.3 ORtg in 1987. Bird’s scoring and creation helped create this though there also was McHale cresting on his own through the post, Ainge having a great shooting season etc.

+797.5 TS added as a team. I believe only the 2016 Warriors had more, with 2013 Heat and 2007 Suns close along with 2017 Warriors iteration.
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lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#18 » by Benja » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:35 pm

Hi, it's me again.
I want to clarify that my criteria to rank players is based on how a player in a given season would be performing on a random team as in portability/scalability mattering to me.
To rank the top 12 seasons of the two greats Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, I would say that I believe Bird peaked higher. His combination of scoring, playmaking and off-ball play on offense as well as good to very good defense he provided (I consider his defense at his defensive peak as All-Defensive level and would title his defensive prime as fringe All-Defensive level.) is, in my opinion, more impactful than Magic's GOAT-level offense. I think we all know how great Magic's offense was, but I believe that his offensive impact alone is not enough to make up for Bird's all-time great offense and good defense.
Albeit Magic was a solid defender early in his career, he lost more and more of his motor the further you look in his career. I think that in his absolute peak in the '87 season he was a neutral defender and was neither adding nor bleeding any value on defense. I consider Magic's second best season to be '90, where his defense was already regressing, but he may have possibly reached his offensive peak. He developed his offense in the halfcourt a little, which possibly may have made him even more dangerous as an offensive weapon. I would follow these seasons up with '89 and '88 as the next best seasons in order. Another great season to mention is the '91 season, whcih displays one of the biggest offensive carryjobs of all time. At that point, his defense was regressing even harder and that is what makes this season lower than the other two.
I do not think that Magic's worse efficiency in the '88 regular season is something that needs much attention. It is simply a situational efficiency drop-off that I don't attach much value to at all. I believe the next two best seasons of Magic's career are '86 and '85. I would say that he developed a decent bit on the offensive end, especially in the halfcourt, from '84 to '86 and then took another jump from '86 to '87.
In Bird's case, I think it is a little tougher to actually rank his peak seasons. His absolute peak is almost unanimously '86, with which I agree. That is when he started hitting his offensive peak but was still an, in my opinion, fringe All-Defensive level defender. Then the tough part begins: Ranking the '84, '85 and '87 seasons.
The best defensive seasons out of all of them is '84, which I consider Bird's absolute defensive peak, while the best offensive season is '87, which I consider Bird's absolute offensive peak. The problem is that Bird's defense regressed sizeably from '86 to '87, which is why I would rank that season last out of all these amazing seasons. '84 is the best out of all these seasons, I would say. The defense and offense combo is better than anything he replicated in any other season in his career outside of '86 accounting for injuries, in my opinion. '85 would be in middle out of all the given seasons. If only the bar fight did not happen, then that season would have been extremely interesting. Following these three seasons, After these three amazing seasons, I would say that '88 is the next best season of Bird's career. His offense was amazing and, in my opinion, part of his 3-year offensive peak. On the other hand, he regressed as a defensive player again, and at that point was around a neutral defender in '88, I would say. Another Bird season I would mention is '83. It is a level below these other previously mentioned seasons of Bird's career, but is still a very good season.
Now, let's get to ranking all these seasons:

1. 1985-86 Larry Bird
2. 1983-84 Larry Bird
3. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
4. 1984-85 Larry Bird
5. 1986-87 Larry Bird
6. 1989-90 Magic Johnson
7. 1988-89 Magic Johnson
8. 1987-88 Magic Johnson
9. 1987-88 Larry Bird
10. 1990-91 Magic Johnson
11. 1985-86 Magic Johnson
12. 1984-85 Magic Johnson
HM: 1982-83 Larry Bird and 1983-84 Magic Johnson
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#19 » by Colbinii » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:00 pm

Benja wrote:Hi, it's me again.
I want to clarify that my criteria to rank players is based on how a player in a given season would be performing on a random team as in portability/scalability mattering to me.


1) What do you quantify as a "random team"?

A) A .500 win team
B) Comparing how the players would fare on teams with a primary ball handler vs non-primary ball handler
C) Isn't scalability strictly when a player is put on better and better teams? If so, how do you quantify this? Not every 55-win team would prefer Bird over Magic.
D) If this is totally random, the more ball-dominant player should always take precedent since a majority of "random teams" are not good because they need an elite ball handler.
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Re: [Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird 

Post#20 » by ty 4191 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:25 pm

Odinn21 wrote:EC-WC balance in the '80s was the reverse of EC-WC balance in the '00s. But I think this would be more compelling for competition level within conferences when we compared Larry Bird and Magic Johnson;

Postseason competition in the conferences

Spoiler:
Magic Johnson's opponents in the WC from 1981-82 to 1990-91;
27 series / 45.1 wins / 45.7 expected wins / 1.58 SRS / 9.5 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 4 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 5 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Larry Bird's opponents in the EC from 1979-80 to 1987-88;
23 series / 47.6 wins / 47.2 expected wins / 2.67 SRS / 7.1 average SRS rank / -1.8 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 22.2% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 18.5% against top 5 defense. 14.8% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 47.8% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 39.1% against top 5 defense. 52.2% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.3 minutes. (4830 minutes in 123 games, 4.56 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.5 minutes. (4848 minutes in 114 games, 4.96 games per series.)


Postseason competition in the conferences excluding 1st rounds

Spoiler:
Magic's opponents
19 series / 47.9 wins / 48.4 expected wins / 2.57 SRS / 7.6 average SRS rank / -0.1 average rDRtg / 2 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 2 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 4 series against top 5 defenses / 4 series against top 5 SRS

Bird's opponents
17 series / 51.4 wins / 51.0 expected wins / 4.03 SRS / 4.4 average SRS rank / -2.5 average rDRtg / 6 series against -4.0 or better rDRtg / 5 other series against between -2.0 and -4.0 / 9 series against top 5 defenses / 12 series against top 5 SRS

So;
Magic played 21.1% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 21.1% against top 5 defense. 21.1% against top 5 SRS.
Bird played 64.7% of his series against -2.0 or better defense. 52.9% against top 5 defense. 70.6% against top 5 SRS.

In those series Magic averaged 39.5 minutes. (3874 minutes in 98 games, 5.16 games per series.)
In those series Bird averaged 42.2 minutes. (3963 minutes in 94 games, 5.53 games per series.)


In short, the disparity between the conferences is a legit concern to be addressed in a comparison between Bird and Magic.


This is outstanding work. It really proves- in a much more erudite and drastically more comprehensive way than what I presented- as to just how much tougher Bird had it than Magic during their respective careers.

Thanks!! :D

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