1970s Top Team Tourney Ro32, '78 76ers @ '76 Celtics

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1978 Philadelphia 76ers (#20) @ The 1976 Boston Celtics (#13)

Overall:

Record: '78 76ers, 55 wins (18th) > ‘76 Celtics, 54 wins (20th)
RSRS: '78 76ers, +4.87 (18th) > ‘76 Celtics, +2.25 (33rd)
PSRS: '78 76ers, +7.35 (13th) > ‘76 Celtics, +4.19 (26th)

When the '78 76ers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '78 76ers' offense vs '76 Celtics' defense:

Regular Season: +4.1 Offensive Rating (4th) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (24th): +2.5 expected
Playoffs: +2.7 Offensive Rating (12th) vs -4.4 Defensive Rating (13th): -1.7 expected

Lineup:

PG: Henry Bibby, 13.6% SS on -2.3% rTS, 8.4 / 2.9 / 5.3 / 1.1: -1.0 playoff OBPM
SG: Doug Collins, 22.4% SS on +5.3% rTS, 18.2 / 2.7 / 3.8 / 1.8: +0.9 playoff OBPM
SF: Julius Erving, 25.7% SS on +4.0% rTS, 19.0 / 6.0 / 3.5 / 2.9: +4.8 playoff OBPM
PF: George McGinnis, 27.3% SS on +0.6% rTS, 18.7 / 9.6 / 3.5 / 1.9: -0.6 playoff OBPM
C: Caldwell Jones, 11.8% SS on -0.6% rTS, 5.0 / 6.5 / 1.1 / 1.8: -0.7 playoff OBPM
6th: World B. Free, 24.5% SS on +2.4% rTS, 14.5 / 2.6 / 3.7 / 1.3: +1.5 playoff OBPM
7th: Steve Mix, 16.4% SS on +6.1% rTS, 8.5 / 3.3 / 1.9 / 1.0: +7.0 playoff OBPM


When the '76 Celtics have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '76 Celtics' offense vs '78 76ers' defense:

Regular Season: +0.6 Offensive Rating (26th) vs -0.6 Defensive Rating (34th): +0.0 expected
Playoffs: -0.2 Offensive Rating (32nd) vs -2.7 Defensive Rating (29th): -2.9 expected

Lineup:

PG: Jo Jo White, 22.0% SS on -2.0% rTS, 17.7 / 3.6 / 5.1 / 1.4: +2.1 playoff OBPM
SG: Charlie Scott, 22.4% SS on -0.9% rTS, 16.5 / 4.1 / 3.9 / 1.5: -1.5 playoff OBPM
SF: John Havlicek, 21.8% SS on +0.4% rTS, 15.9 / 3.8 / 3.5 / 1.6: +1.7 playoff OBPM
PF: Paul Silas, 14.9% SS on -1.6% rTS, 10.0 / 11.9 / 2.3 / 1.0: +1.9 playoff OBPM
C: Dave Cowens, 21.0% SS on +0.4% rTS, 17.8 / 15.0 / 3.9 / 2.0: +3.6 playoff OBPM

Thoughts:

- Injuries: John Havlicek will miss Game 4 for the Celtics.
- The ‘78 Sixers are an interesting team. In the regular season they didn’t give Caldwell Jones minutes (about 20 mpg) and instead played with more minutes of World B. Free and Darryl Dawkins. As a result their regular season defense was barely better than league average (and extremely low for this tournament). But their offense, with Erving, Mix, Collins, Dawkins and Free all getting solid minutes was excellent, the 4th best in this tournament. But in the playoffs they pulled those minutes back and played Caldwell Jones a lot more, which dropped their offense some, but boosted their defense considerably. So an advantage that the Sixers have is that they can play either style of ball.

Their playoff SRS makes them look like a really good team. And they were. But the number is a little misleading. In the semis they played the league average Knicks and obliterated them by almost 19 points a game. It was a truly dominant showing . . . but the Knicks weren’t actually any good. And in the Conference Finals the Sixers ran into the excellent postseason defense of the ‘78 Bullets. Pretty much every single member of the Sixers lost 3-5% in their true shooting (except for Mix). And while they slowed the Bullets considerably, they still lost in 6, by 3.1 points per game.

So what to conclude? The Sixers on their face appear to be the better postseason team, but most of that is from obliterating an average opponent. When they faced a stout challenge (and the ‘78 Bullets aren’t *that* different from the ‘76 Celtics) they regressed, and struggled to get their offense going. Was the Sixers’ offense simply un-resilient? Or was there a characteristic of the Bullet’s defense that the Celtics’ lacks here?
- The ‘76 Celtics won the championship. But it was a fairly lackluster season. 54 wins sounds great, but a +2.25 RSRS doesn’t. In the semis they faced the league average Braves and won in 6 by 3.6, a lackluster result. In the Conference Finals they faced another capable (but hardly great) team in the Cavs and won that one in six by 0.8 points per game. And when the Cinderella Suns faced the Celtics in the Finals, the Celtics prevailed in six by 4.3 points per game. They were all wins. But in none of these matchups did they face anyone particularly strong, nor in any of these matchups did they dominate. By the numbers, they look like a decent team that simply happened to be the best against mediocre opposition.

But is that fair? Granted, at this point John Havlicek was 35 and no all-star. Their youngest starter was 27. They were no spring chickens, but they’d also done this a long time. Cowens was as good as ever, and this was the core that had been tangling with juggernauts since the early 70s. Without prime Havlicek they had lost their fastball, but they were high-executing veterans that executed well on defense. Not unlike the ‘78 Bullets.
- Basically in every casual way the Sixers look better. But seeing them lose (reasonably convincingly) to a team not dissimilar from the Celtics does give me pause. What does everybody think?


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[penbeast0]

Sixers are clearly more talented but a lot less coherent as a team. They have tremendous individual talents 8 deep so they are far more resilient in the face of injuries and able to manage minutes. The Celtics are a veteran team that has played together and always managed to be good enough to win. Paul Silas, Dave Cowens, and John Havlicek are among the smartest and highest intangible players in the league. And these teams knew each other pretty well. Still, I think the Sixers have enough extra talent to overcome the Celtics even though the Celtics won a title and the Sixers didn't. 76ers in seven or six, going to go with six.

[70sFan]

How do you see this matchup next to the series that actually happened in 1977? Celtics were clearly better in 1976 and Sixers were probably a little worse in 1978.

[Odinn21]

This is definitely '76 Celtics. In terms of roster structure, '76 Celtics with Cowens and Havlicek were pretty similar to '78 Bullets Unseld and Dandridge. Surely Silas was no Unseld but I see some certain and important similarities. I don't see how McGinnis would have a series and unload Erving in terms of playmaking load. Jo Jo White is a clear mismatch for World B. Free.
Even with Havlicek missing a game, I don't see how the Sixers could force a game 7.

Vote: '76 Celtics in 6.

[wojoaderge]

How do you see this matchup next to the series that actually happened in 1977? Celtics were clearly better in 1976 and Sixers were probably a little worse in 1978.

Why do you say that?

[penbeast0]

This is definitely '76 Celtics. In terms of roster structure, '76 Celtics with Cowens and Havlicek were pretty similar to '78 Bullets Unseld and Dandridge. Surely Silas was no Unseld but I see some certain and important similarities. I don't see how McGinnis would have a series and unload Erving in terms of playmaking load. Jo Jo White is a clear mismatch for World B. Free.
Even with Havlicek missing a game, I don't see how the Sixers could force a game 7.

Vote: '76 Celtics in 6.

I think Silas is a similar but lesser player than Unseld; Cowens and Havlicek very different from Unseld and Dandridge. And why are you comparing Jojo to the Sixers' reserve guard (and Charlie Scott is probably an equally weak defender)? They were starting Bibby and Collins by the playoffs. JoJo was solid at everything but wasn't really great at anything; peak Doug Collins was the better player offensively, if not defensively.

[Odinn21]

This is definitely '76 Celtics. In terms of roster structure, '76 Celtics with Cowens and Havlicek were pretty similar to '78 Bullets Unseld and Dandridge. Surely Silas was no Unseld but I see some certain and important similarities. I don't see how McGinnis would have a series and unload Erving in terms of playmaking load. Jo Jo White is a clear mismatch for World B. Free.
Even with Havlicek missing a game, I don't see how the Sixers could force a game 7.

Vote: '76 Celtics in 6.

I think Silas is a similar but lesser player than Unseld; Cowens and Havlicek very different from Unseld and Dandridge. And why are you comparing Jojo to the Sixers' reserve guard (and Charlie Scott is probably an equally weak defender)? They were starting Bibby and Collins by the playoffs. JoJo was solid at everything but wasn't really great at anything; peak Doug Collins was the better player offensively, if not defensively.

I wasn't directly comparing players. I was comparing how their strong points turned into pressuring factors to opponent offense and closed down certain passing angles.
If I recall correctly, World B. Free was like Manu Ginobili. Him not starting =/= him not being part of the 1st unit players. According to my notes, Free/Collins/Erving/McGinnis/Jones lineup was the most used lineup for the Sixers.

[penbeast0]

Free was 6th on the team in minutes in the playoffs though with a pretty high 27mpg for a reserve (with Mix at 24 and Dawkins at 18), in the regular season he was used more than either of the two main centers but Caldwell Jones and Dawkins split the 5 and each averaged north of 20 mpg.

Celtics were a 5 deep team except for Havlicek's being hurt and bringing Don Nelson in for far more of a role than he had in the regular season.

Not sure I understand how Cowens and Hondo were equivalent to Unseld and Dandridge in terms of closing down angles but you probably are looking deeper than I am.

[sansterre]

Also, any ideas on how Havlicek's defense was holding up by '76? His offensive metrics had all fallen way off, but if his defense was still excellent that'd be worth knowing.

[70sFan]

How do you see this matchup next to the series that actually happened in 1977? Celtics were clearly better in 1976 and Sixers were probably a little worse in 1978.

Why do you say that?

Mostly because of McGinnis and Erving playing below 1977 level, though to be honest George was more healthy in the playoffs so maybe I was wrong. That said, do you think that 1977 Sixers would have lost to Bullets?

[70sFan]

Also, any ideas on how Havlicek's defense was holding up by '76? His offensive metrics had all fallen way off, but if his defense was still excellent that'd be worth knowing.

I don't think he was ATG on that end anymore, but even in 1977 Hondo gave Julius a lot of problems.

Celtics weren't ATG defensively but they were very unpleasant to play against. You won't find a minute without pressure on the court.

[wojoaderge]

How do you see this matchup next to the series that actually happened in 1977? Celtics were clearly better in 1976 and Sixers were probably a little worse in 1978.

Why do you say that?

Mostly because of McGinnis and Erving playing below 1977 level, though to be honest George was more healthy in the playoffs so maybe I was wrong. That said, do you think that 1977 Sixers would have lost to Bullets?

Well, they were the same team. The 78 team lost two close games.

I'm gonna go with the Celtics in 7 because of HCA. The 76ers came up short on the final possessions of both their 1977 and 1978 seasons. Sadly, I envision the same scenario on the parquet floor . . .

[homecourtloss]

Well this is an interesting one.

‘77 Celtics played the Sixers tough even though pretty much everyone other than Collins was held down. ‘76 Celtics have a better version of Havlicek are are more cohesive.

The Celtics in general had that championship caliber 4 year run (ECF, Title, ECF, title), and I trust that type of team in a series. I see the Sixers as more talented overall though Erving, the presumptive best player here, did not have a particularly impactful year in 1978. Bobby had made some great defensive strides and McGinnis was a strong plus player on offense despite not being the most efficient. Also, there’s the Mayor Mix.

Overall, I see the Celtics winning this in 7 very close games with homecourt in game 7.

[homecourtloss]

Also, any ideas on how Havlicek's defense was holding up by '76? His offensive metrics had all fallen way off, but if his defense was still excellent that'd be worth knowing.

I don't think he was ATG on that end anymore, but even in 1977 Hondo gave Julius a lot of problems.

Celtics weren't ATG defensively but they were very unpleasant to play against. You won't find a minute without pressure on the court.

1974 Bucks can attest to this. Cowens non-stop motor as well. You never want to play against teams like that.

[sansterre]

I'm so on the fence about this. But I like the fact that the Sixers can scale back Caldwell Jones (who isn't as useful a defender against a jump-shooter like Cowens) and give more minutes to Free to strain the defense more (and Erving will need the help with Havlicek guarding him).

Between the Sixers' flexibility, better overall resume and the Celtics losing Hondo for a game . . . I think I'm going Sixers in six.

[sansterre]

This one was a squeaker, but the Celtics take it 3-2. They advance to face the '73 Knicks.