[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between Michael Jordan vs. Tim Duncan

Odinn21 · Post #1 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:00 pm

Hello.

Link to the project idea thread.

The project will contain 1v1 comparisons between the top 10 ever in the latest 3 top 100 project on RealGM which are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Larry Bird.
There are 45 possibilities of 2 in 10, the project will have 90 days period to be concluded.

Things to follow;
- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- A simple 12/11/.../2/1 point system will be used for the project.
Evaluations will be based on the seasons, not the players direclty as an outcome of a single vote.
- Explanations are needed, even in short forms. (Though for a project like this, I'd appreciate long posts personally. Saying this as a voter, not the commissioner.)
- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (from/to 11:00 EST).

Results on Google Sheets

The comparison order we'll be following;

Spoiler:

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Spoiler:

Odinn21 · Post #2 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:30 pm

This time around, I wanted to go version specific games.

1991 Jordan

Watch on YouTube

2003 Duncan

Watch on YouTube

homecourtloss · Post #3 » by **homecourtloss** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:12 pm

1. ‘91 Jordan- Contention for GOAT season. Everything just came together between athleticism, playmaking, smoothness of that turnaround fade, everything
2. ‘03 Duncan — great regular and post season and carry job in the playoffs. Monster overall impact.
3. ‘90 Jordan —Just under his best season
4. ‘89 Jordan - Close to 1990 Jordan
5. ‘02 Duncan — under ‘03 Duncan but didn’t have quite the same offensive i
6. '88 Jordan — not as polished as later versions
7. '07 Duncan —Duncanesque two way impact
8. '93 Jordan —Better turnover economy than 1992 with a lower FTr (didn’t get as many calls in the regular season nor in the postseason) on a tired team
9. ‘92 Jordan—close to ‘93 Jordan
10. ‘05 Duncan — PI RS+PS RAPM actually has this as Duncan’s 2nd most impactful year
11. ‘01 Duncan
12. ‘96 Jordan

HM: 2004 Duncan, 2006 Duncan, 1997 Jordan

Odinn21 · Post #4 » by **Odinn21** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:53 pm

homecourtloss wrote:10. ‘05 Duncan — PI RS+PS RAPM actually has this as Duncan’s 2nd most impactful year

I usually take Engelmann's numbers for rs+ps as the proof of what I'm talking about about Duncan's importance in that playoff run. Yes, he wasn't efficient at all against the Pistons and Ginobili had a huge success against them. But everything the Spurs did during that entire run was based on Duncan and his aggressiveness.

I believe the following numbers are for rs only.
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2005-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2005-npi

Then this is Engelmann's rs+ps results.

I know that the values themselves aren't as telling as one would assume. The gaps between 2-3 and 3-4 and 4-5 are different with the method used. And it's hard to say Duncan distinguished himself from Ginobili and the rest by an extent that 8.47 vs. 6.71 would suggest. I don't think it was that much but it was still there.
(Also, a reminder that any adjusted +/- is role specific. I don't think anyone would argue for Ginobili and Kirilenko over Nash for 2005.

)

I've always been bitter about Duncan getting injured in 2005. It was such a dominant form from him before the injury. I was seriously expecting him to even surpass his 2002 and 2003 seasons. He was utterly dominant, the Spurs were utterly dominant. Not only his offensive game looked more refined with better pieces around him, he was definitely better on the defensive end. Not by much surely, but pre-injury 2005 Duncan was quite possibly the peak Duncan in terms of defense. Then the injury happened and the season has stayed as a "what if" for Duncan's individual pov for me. It'll probably stay that way for an eternity.

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The only major disagreement I have in your order is that 2005 Duncan being in between of 2001 and 2007 versions.
At first, I thought I'd disagree with 2007 Duncan being #7 and 2001 Duncan being #11 because I have these two seasons as a tie. But 1992/1993 Jordan was a heck of a player (probably I'll rank 1993 Jordan ahead of the 2 Duncan seasons and I'll need to think about 1992). So can't really complain about the distance considering what's in between. But I think that 2005 Duncan shouldn't be in that range with the injury. He missed too many games to be in that tier.

Djoker · Post #5 » by **Djoker** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:18 pm

I still have to think about my final list. 2003 Duncan will be among the trees actually breaking the MJ immortal stretch from 1988-1993 and 2002, 2001 and 2007 are definitely making the list. The rest of Duncan's seasons will have a pretty hard time.

Top 10 Jordan Seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1988
1992
1993
1996
1997
1987
1998

Top 8 Duncan Seasons:

2003
2002
2001
2007
2005
1999
2004
2006

homecourtloss · Post #6 » by **homecourtloss** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:14 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:10. ‘05 Duncan — PI RS+PS RAPM actually has this as Duncan’s 2nd most impactful year

I usually take Engelmann's numbers for rs+ps as the proof of what I'm talking about about Duncan's importance in that playoff run. Yes, he wasn't efficient at all against the Pistons and Ginobili had a huge success against them. But everything the Spurs did during that entire run was based on Duncan and his aggressiveness.

I believe the following numbers are for rs only.
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2005-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2005-npi

Then this is Engelmann's rs+ps results.

I know that the values themselves aren't as telling as one would assume. The gaps between 2-3 and 3-4 and 4-5 are different with the method used. And it's hard to say Duncan distinguished himself from Ginobili and the rest by an extent that 8.47 vs. 6.71 would suggest. I don't think it was that much but it was still there.
(Also, a reminder that any adjusted +/- is role specific. I don't think anyone would argue for Ginobili and Kirilenko over Nash for 2005. )

I've always been bitter about Duncan getting injured in 2005. It was such a dominant form from him before the injury. I was seriously expecting him to even surpass his 2002 and 2003 seasons. He was utterly dominant, the Spurs were utterly dominant. Not only his offensive game looked more refined with better pieces around him, he was definitely better on the defensive end. Not by much surely, but pre-injury 2005 Duncan was quite possibly the peak Duncan in terms of defense. Then the injury happened and the season has stayed as a "what if" for Duncan's individual pov for me. It'll probably stay that way for an eternity.

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The only major disagreement I have in your order is that 2005 Duncan being in between of 2001 and 2007 versions.
At first, I thought I'd disagree with 2007 Duncan being #7 and 2001 Duncan being #11 because I have these two seasons as a tie. But 1992/1993 Jordan was a heck of a player (probably I'll rank 1993 Jordan ahead of the 2 Duncan seasons and I'll need to think about 1992). So can't really complain about the distance considering what's in between. But I think that 2005 Duncan shouldn't be in that range with the injury. He missed too many games to be in that tier.

He did miss many games, and I thought about that for a bit, but his peak playoff CORP potential makes me have that season in there even though he did play alongside a player who had an incredible RS and PS that year, i.e., Manu.

falcolombardi · Post #7 » by **falcolombardi** » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:41 pm

Djoker wrote:I still have to think about my final list. 2003 Duncan will be among the trees actually breaking the MJ immortal stretch from 1988-1993 and 2002, 2001 and 2007 are definitely making the list. The rest of Duncan's seasons will have a pretty hard time.

Top 10 Jordan Seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1988
1992
1993
1996
1997
1987
1998

Top 8 Duncan Seasons:

2003
2002
2001
2007
2005
1999
2004
2006

only 2003 but not 2002?

Gregoire · Post #8 » by **Gregoire** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:06 am

Here is my list:

1. 91 MJ
2. 90 MJ
3. 92 MJ
4. 89 MJ
5. 93 MJ
6. 88 MJ
7. 03 Duncan
8. 96 MJ
9. 02 Duncan
10. 87 MJ
11. 05 Duncan
12. 07 Duncan

70sFan · Post #9 » by **70sFan** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:55 am

Gregoire wrote:Here is my list:

1. 91 MJ
2. 90 MJ
3. 92 MJ
4. 89 MJ
5. 93 MJ
6. 88 MJ
7. 03 Duncan
8. 96 MJ
9. 02 Duncan
10. 87 MJ
11. 05 Duncan
12. 07 Duncan

I'd love to hear the argumentation for 1988 Jordan over 2003 Duncan. I'd also love to hear the argumentiation for 1996 Jordan over 2002 Duncan. 1987 Jordan over 2007 Duncan just doesn't sound right to me, but I'm also open for arguments.

migya · Post #10 » by **migya** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:20 pm

70sFan wrote:
Gregoire wrote:Here is my list:

1. 91 MJ
2. 90 MJ
3. 92 MJ
4. 89 MJ
5. 93 MJ
6. 88 MJ
7. 03 Duncan
8. 96 MJ
9. 02 Duncan
10. 87 MJ
11. 05 Duncan
12. 07 Duncan

I'd love to hear the argumentation for 1988 Jordan over 2003 Duncan. I'd also love to hear the argumentiation for 1996 Jordan over 2002 Duncan. 1987 Jordan over 2007 Duncan just doesn't sound right to me, but I'm also open for arguments.

1988 Jordan has better raw and advanced stats across the board than 2002 Duncan. 88 Jordan, statistically, looks close to the best season alltime. 96 also is better across the board than 02. Likewise for 87 compared to 07. Looks pretty obvious.

70sFan · Post #11 » by **70sFan** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:29 pm

migya wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Gregoire wrote:Here is my list:

1. 91 MJ
2. 90 MJ
3. 92 MJ
4. 89 MJ
5. 93 MJ
6. 88 MJ
7. 03 Duncan
8. 96 MJ
9. 02 Duncan
10. 87 MJ
11. 05 Duncan
12. 07 Duncan

I'd love to hear the argumentation for 1988 Jordan over 2003 Duncan. I'd also love to hear the argumentiation for 1996 Jordan over 2002 Duncan. 1987 Jordan over 2007 Duncan just doesn't sound right to me, but I'm also open for arguments.

1988 Jordan has better raw and advanced stats across the board than 2002 Duncan. 88 Jordan, statistically, looks close to the best season alltime. 96 also is better across the board than 02. Likewise for 87 compared to 07. Looks pretty obvious.

Raw boxscore stats don't measure impact. Neither does "advanced" stats which are simply the combination of boxscore stats.

This argumentation alone doesn't convince me. Would you also take 7 Jordan seasons over 1993 Olajuwon?

Odinn21 · Post #12 » by **Odinn21** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:46 pm

A quick announcement.
I'll be visiting my hometown for around 10-12 days starting from tuesday. I'll publish the results of this one on the dot as usual. But the following ones will have their results published when I get back.
I will have the text document that I use to open new threads on my phone and I'll keep up with the timeline of the new threads.
Cheers all.

Btw, watching the games I linked, I gotta say peak Duncan is pretty damn close to peak Jordan. As a fan, I'm inclined to pick my boy.

Just another testament how tier 1 peaks close to each other. I had 1994 Olajuwon just under 1991/1990 versions of Jordan. I think it'll be the same with 2003 Duncan in this one.

migya · Post #13 » by **migya** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:35 pm

70sFan wrote:
migya wrote:
70sFan wrote:I'd love to hear the argumentation for 1988 Jordan over 2003 Duncan. I'd also love to hear the argumentiation for 1996 Jordan over 2002 Duncan. 1987 Jordan over 2007 Duncan just doesn't sound right to me, but I'm also open for arguments.

1988 Jordan has better raw and advanced stats across the board than 2002 Duncan. 88 Jordan, statistically, looks close to the best season alltime. 96 also is better across the board than 02. Likewise for 87 compared to 07. Looks pretty obvious.

Raw boxscore stats don't measure impact. Neither does "advanced" stats which are simply the combination of boxscore stats.

This argumentation alone doesn't convince me. Would you also take 7 Jordan seasons over 1993 Olajuwon?

I also think stats don't show it all, not close, but the sentiment here is as such. Duncan's best three seasons are close to Jordan's third or fourth best but Jordan's best is clearly above.

No-more-rings · Post #14 » by **No-more-rings** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:21 pm

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 1990 Jordan
3. 2003 Duncan
4. 1989 Jordan
5. 1988 Jordan
6. 2002 Duncan
7. 1992 Jordan
8. 1993 Jordan
9. 2001 Duncan
10. 1996 Jordan
11. 2007 Duncan
12. 2005 Duncan

Yeah i respect Duncan’s greatness a lot, but Jordan is simply better this isn’t a comparison that should be all that close.

Djoker · Post #15 » by **Djoker** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:33 am

Top 12 Combined Seasons:

1991 Jordan
1990 Jordan
1989 Jordan
2003 Duncan
1988 Jordan
1992 Jordan
1993 Jordan
2002 Duncan
1996 Jordan
1997 Jordan
2001 Duncan
2007 Duncan

Odinn21 · Post #16 » by **Odinn21** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:19 am

Top 7 seasons for Michael Jordan;
1991
1990
1989
1993
1992
1988
1996

Top 7 seasons for Tim Duncan;
2003
2002
2007
2001
2005
2 of 1999/2004/2006

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1991 Michael Jordan
2. 1990 Michael Jordan
3. 2003 Tim Duncan
4. 2002 Tim Duncan
5. 1989 Michael Jordan
6. 1993 Michael Jordan
7. 2007 Tim Duncan
8. 1992 Michael Jordan
9. 2001 Tim Duncan
10. 1988 Michael Jordan
11. 2005 Tim Duncan
12. 1996 Michael Jordan

Thoughts;
- As I pointed out earlier, peak Duncan is pretty close peak Jordan.
- 1989 Jordan vs. 2002 Duncan was a pretty close call and I actually suspect that if a player with Jordan's popularity performed like Duncan did against O'Neal in 2002 would get crazy amount of recognition. This duo feels particularly tough because putting Jordan over Duncan is looking like name-bias and putting Duncan over Jordan is looking like I might be overcorrecting things. There should be no winner or no loser between these 2 versions. In terms of aspect comparisons, rs vs. rs / ps vs. ps / MJ's offense vs. TD's defense / TD's offense vs. MJ's defense, overall still a tie.
- 1993 Jordan is kind of alone. Pretty close to his 1989 version and 2002 Duncan but also pretty close to the next tier with his 1992 version and 2001/2007 Duncan.
- Jordan's rather struggles on offense in 1992 ps run is the reason why his 1992 is not next to his 1993 and over 2007 Duncan.
- As I keep mentioning in this project, despite his crazy high motor, I'm not high on Jordan's defense in 1988 with his overgambling tendencies. I mean you guys probably would be astonished how much space and open shots he let go with his gambles. Kind of a loner though on the list much like to his 1993.
- Well, 2005 Duncan was just better enough than 1996 Jordan to excuse the number of missed games.
I'll say rather irrelevant to comparison of these 2 versions of Duncan and Jordan. Considering how much flak Duncan gets for his underwhelming scoring performance against arguably the best defensive frontcourt ever, I've never liked the fact that Jordan gets so little criticism for his underwhelming scoring performance against the best defensive backcourt ever. Compared to their usual scoring efficiency, Jordan's efficiency took a bigger dive and Duncan's playmaking volume actually got higher.

falcolombardi · Post #17 » by **falcolombardi** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:38 pm

Odinn21 wrote:Top 7 seasons for Michael Jordan;
1991
1990
1989
1993
1992
1988
1996

Top 7 seasons for Tim Duncan;
2003
2002
2007
2001
2005
2 of 1999/2004/2006

My list of top 12 seasons between the two;
1. 1991 Michael Jordan
2. 1990 Michael Jordan
3. 2003 Tim Duncan
4. 1989 Michael Jordan
5. 2002 Tim Duncan
6. 1993 Michael Jordan
7. 2007 Tim Duncan
8. 1992 Michael Jordan
9. 2001 Tim Duncan
10. 1988 Michael Jordan
11. 2005 Tim Duncan
12. 1996 Michael Jordan

Thoughts;
- As I pointer out earlier, peak Duncan is pretty close peak Jordan.
- 1989 Jordan vs. 2002 Duncan was a pretty close call and I actually suspect that if a player with Jordan's popularity performed like Duncan did against O'Neal in 2002 would get crazy amount of recognition. this duo feels particularly tough because putting Jordan over Duncan is looking like name-bias and putting Duncan over Jordan is looking like I might be overcorrecting things. There should be no winner or no loser between these 2 versions. In terms of aspect comparisons, rs vs. rs / ps vs. ps / MJ's offense vs. TD's defense / TD's offense vs. MJ's defense, overall still a tie.
- 1993 Jordan is kind of alone. Pretty close to his 1989 version and 2002 Duncan but also pretty close to the next tier with his 1992 version and 2001/2007 Duncan.
- Jordan's rather struggles on offense in 1992 ps run is the reason why his 1992 is not next to his 1993 and over 2007 Duncan.
- As I keep mentioning in this project, despite his crazy high motor, I'm not high on Jordan's defense in 1988 with his overgambling tendencies. I mean you guys probably would be astonished how much space and open shots he let go with his gambles. Kind of a loner though on the list much like to his 1993.
- Well, 2005 Duncan was just better enough than 1996 Jordan to excuse the number of missed games.
I'll say rather irrelevant to comparison of these 2 versions of Duncan and Jordan. Considering how much flak Duncan gets for his underwhelming scoring performance against arguably the best defensive frontcourt ever, I've never liked the fact that Jordan gets so little criticism for his underwhelming scoring performance against the best defensive backcourt ever. Compared to their usual scoring efficiency, Jordan's efficiency took a bigger dive and Duncan's playmaking volume actually got higher.

when i tried to track jordan defense the other day i realized (that tracking players and evaluating play by play is really, really hard, ben Taylor should do a video on how he does this) but also that he makes a surprising amount of high risk/low reward plays

thinghs like leaving his mark in the perimeter to make a huge jump to block a center in the high block who looks like he is going to jumpshot before he even jumps (and randomly flying past because he didnt jump) and now there is a opem man, this was 1990

he is really, really jump happy to try blocking jumpshots
that have still not been shot (guesses) and is a testament to players/refs nobody tries to jump into him for free throws like trae young or harden would do

but on the other side his flashy steal or block attempt sometimes work too with his impressive athletism so it felt like it evened out in points given vs saved

as for your point about struggles against great backgrounds, i know he had issues with gary payton in 96 but which are the others?

Odinn21 · Post #18 » by **Odinn21** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:20 pm

falcolombardi wrote:when i tried to track jordan defense the other day i realized (that tracking players and evaluating play by play is really, really hard, ben Taylor should do a video on how he does this) but also that he makes a surprising amount of high risk/low reward plays

thinghs like leaving his mark in the perimeter to make a huge jump to block a center in the high block who looks like he is going to jumpshot before he even jumps (and randomly flying past because he didnt jump) and now there is a opem man, this was 1990

he is really, really jump happy to try blocking jumpshots
that have still not been shot (guesses) and is a testament to players/refs nobody tries to jump into him for free throws like trae young or harden would do

but on the other side his flashy steal or block attempt sometimes work too with his impressive athletism so it felt like it evened out in points given vs saved

as for your point about struggles against great backgrounds, i know he had issues with gary payton in 96 but which are the others?

About Jordan’s defense, I’d say the season you’re referring to being his 1990 is reflective of my point. Jordan especially committed too hard with his gambles relying on his left knee. When he aimed going around of his opponent’s torso to reach the ball, he was always out of position in 1988 but he was far more decisive and better at it by 1990 and 1991.
His steal and block numbers in 1990 and 1991 are closer to his true impact than his numbers in 1988.

About the last point, I was directly comparing the heat they got for those 2 particular series. My point wasn’t about trend of Jordan’s performance against strong backcourts.

Odinn21 · Post #19 » by **Odinn21** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 3:02 pm

Michael Jordan vs. Tim Duncan results;

Code: Select all

1.   60 points / 1.000 share / '91 Michael Jordan
2.   54 points / 0.900 share / '90 Michael Jordan
3.   50 points / 0.833 share / '03 Tim Duncan
4.   44 points / 0.733 share / '89 Michael Jordan
5.   38 points / 0.633 share / '02 Tim Duncan
6.   30 points / 0.500 share / '93 Michael Jordan
7.   29 points / 0.483 share / '88 Michael Jordan
8.   28 points / 0.467 share / '92 Michael Jordan
9.   20 points / 0.333 share / '07 Tim Duncan
10.  16 points / 0.267 share / '01 Tim Duncan
11.  11 points / 0.183 share / '96 Michael Jordan
12.   7 points / 0.117 share / '05 Tim Duncan
                               
13.   3 points / 0.050 share / '97 Michael Jordan

Points within top 12 seasons voted;
Michael Jordan 52 - 26 Tim Duncan

Points totals in top 12 seasons voted;
Michael Jordan 256 - 131 Tim Duncan

Winner: Michael Jordan

Results on Google Sheets

70sFan · Post #20 » by **70sFan** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 3:49 pm

Please, include my votes Odinn

Odinn21 wrote:...

Duncan's best seasons:

2003
2002
2007
2001
2005
2004
2006
1999

Jordan's top seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1993
1992
1988
1996
1997
1998
1987

My list:

1. 1991 Michael Jordan - I have a hard time picking anyone over peak Duncan, but I'll give Jordan the benefit of doubt.
2. 1990 Michael Jordan - very close to 1991, less experience on triangle offese counts.

3. 2003 Tim Duncan - can't take any other Jordan season over peak Duncan. 1989 is close, but I don't think Jordan's PG experiment really put his RS above peak Duncan and Timmy was just too good in the playoffs.
4. 2002 Tim Duncan - he had similar supporting cast to 1989 Jordan and what he did in postseason vs Shaq was nothing short of incredible.
5. 1989 Michael Jordan - just amazing all-around season, definitely above any other Duncan's season left.

6. 1993 Michael Jordan - lesser motor, but amazing offensive season.
7. 1992 Michael Jordan - inconsistent in the playoffs, I can see 2007 Duncan over this version of MJ.
8. 2007 Tim Duncan - monstrous two-way impact, clearly the best player in the league in that season.

9. 2001 Tim Duncan - very close between 2001 and 1988, but I'm not 100% convinced that Jordan's two-way impact was on his prime level in this season. Odinn's concerns gave me even more doubts, 2001 Duncan is a safe choice with strong carryjob throughout the season.
10. 1988 Michael Jordan - I think I downgraded my opinion about this season throughout the project, but I can't deny it's an incredible season.

11. 1996 Michael Jordan - I'd take healthy 2005 Duncan over 1996 Jordan, but missed games is a key factor in my evaluation. I do think that Duncan was more impressive in the playoffs for what it's worth, even taking into account scoring struggles vs Pistons.
12. 2005 Tim Duncan - extremely strong finish on this one.

HM: 2004 Duncan would be next for me, just a superior player than any version of MJ left.