The 1973 Milwaukee Bucks (#18) @ The 1976 Golden State Warriors (#15)
Overall:
Record: ‘73 Bucks, 60 wins (8th) > '76 Warriors, 59 wins (10th)
RSRS: ‘73 Bucks, +7.84 (7th) > '76 Warriors, +6.23 (11th)
PSRS: ‘76 Warriors, +6.59 (18th) > '73 Bucks , +5.62 (21st)
When the '73 Bucks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '73 Bucks' offense vs '76 Warriors' defense:
Regular Season: +1.8 Offensive Rating (19th) vs -3.8 Defensive Rating (14th): -2.0 expected
Playoffs: +2.2 Offensive Rating (17th) vs +0.7 Defensive Rating (32nd): +2.9 expected
Lineup:
PG: Lucius Allen, 20.9% SS on +1.0% rTS, 14.3 / 3.2 / 4.9
SG: Oscar Robertson, 18.7% SS on +1.3% rTS, 14.3 / 4.5 / 6.9
SF: Bob Dandridge, 23.7% SS on +0.6% rTS, 18.7 / 7.6 / 2.6
PF: Curtis Perry, 13.9% SS on -1.2% rTS, 8.4 / 8.9 / 1.7
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 28.0% SS on +8.2% rTS, 27.9 / 14.9 / 4.6
6th: Jon McGlocklin, 17.3% SS on +2.5% rTS, 8.9 / 1.8 / 2.8
When the '76 Warriors have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '76 Warriors' offense vs '73 Bucks' defense:
Regular Season: +2.3 Offensive Rating (13th) vs -5.7 Defensive Rating (4th): -3.4 expected
Playoffs: +5.9 Offensive Rating (4th) vs -3.0 Defensive Rating (18th): +2.9 expected
Lineup:
PG: Charles Johnson, 22.0% SS on -1.9% rTS, 8.5 / 2.3 / 1.4 / 1.2: -2.3 playoff OBPM
SG: Phil Smith, 24.9% SS on +2.1% rTS, 18.5 / 4.2 / 4.1 / 1.4: +4.8 playoff OBPM
SF: Rick Barry, 25.0% SS on -2.1% rTS, 19.4 / 5.6 / 5.6 / 2.6: +3.4 playoff OBPM
PF: Jamaal Wilkes, 23.9% SS on -0.5% rTS, 16.4 / 8.1 / 1.8 / 1.5: +0.5 playoff OBPM
C: Clifford Ray, 10.3% SS on +5.4% rTS, 6.4 / 8.8 / 1.7 / 1.8: +2.1 playoff OBPM
6th: George Johnson, 9.8% on -1.9% rTS, 4.5 / 7.0 / 0.9 / 2.5: +1.1 playoff OBPM
7th: Charles Dudley, 13.8% on +7.1% rTS, 5.9 / 3.0 / 2.7 / 0.8: +2.7 playoff OBPM
Thoughts:
- Injuries: None.
- In the regular season these teams look pretty similar, wins and SRS-wise. But they probably aren’t. The Bucks were still riding the post-expansion wave that buoyed all top teams for several years (1973 had 17 teams, of which five were at +6 SRS or higher, and where the bottom four teams averaged around a -7.8 SRS), and the Warriors were a +6.23 SRS team in a year where the 2nd highest RSRS was +2.34 and the lowest was -2.89. So while the two may look comparable, the Warriors were in a much more competitive league.
- Both teams had disappointing playoffs. The ‘73 Bucks lost in the semifinals in a surprise upset to the Warriors. Now the Warriors were a decent team (+3.12 RSRS) but the Bucks were coming off of two of the strongest seasons in league history. And it’s not like the Warriors destroyed them; they may have won in six but their wins were by 3, 5, 3 and 14 points (compared to the Bucks’ wins which were both by 20 points). So it was honestly pretty close. Still. The real story was that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had been . . . I don’t want to say “shut down”, but pretty much shut down by Nate Thurmond. Kareem lost 13 points off his regular season TS% in that series. It wasn’t uncommon in prior years for Kareem to lose a fair bit of efficiency to staunch defenders like Wilt Chamberlain or Wes Unseld. But he was usually only knocked down to “pretty efficient”. In this case his shooting became a liability. It was fairly unprecedented. And this didn’t implode their offense; overall the Bucks held up tolerably well. But we nevertheless have to assume that the version of Kareem on the ‘73 Bucks is unusually vulnerable to ATG-level defensive bigs.
Are Clifford Ray and George Johnson those bigs? I’m going with “no”. And if we’re going with “no”, then I don’t know why we shouldn’t expect Milwaukee’s offense to be just fine against the Warriors. Especially given that the ’76 Warriors’ defense struggled in the playoffs.
- The Warriors, on the other hand, fell to a fairly mediocre Suns team. And like the Bucks with the Warriors, while they lost (in seven games) they outscored the Suns by 4.2 points per game. The Suns’ wins were by 7, 4, 1 and 8 points, while the Warriors won their games by 25, 8 and 15 points. And it’s not like the Warriors’ offense struggled. They actually ran one of the best playoff offenses in this tournament. Unlike the prior year, the ‘76 Warriors weren’t completely dependent on Barry. And as often happens when you get a stud scorer taking less shots than he’s capable of, he had a particularly resilient playoffs. But the Warriors’ defense (which had led the league in the regular season) struggled to defend shot-makers. Bob Lanier torched them in the first round and Paul Westphal shot over 50% from the field in the second round. They were the better team than Phoenix, and they played better, but sometimes that isn’t enough to get a win.
- Ultimately I see this matchup as favoring the Bucks given that the Bucks are less likely to replicate their postseason struggles (if Lanier can rip through the Warriors, so can Kareem in theory) than the Warriors. But I’m very open to hearing other perspectives.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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