1970s Top Team Tourney Ro32, '70 Bucks @ '77 Blazers

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1970 Milwaukee Bucks (#22) @ The 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (#11)

Overall:

Record: ‘70 Bucks, 56 wins (17th) > '77 Blazers, 49 wins (29th)
RSRS: ‘77 Blazers, +5.39 (16th) > '70 Bucks, +4.25 (21st)
PSRS: ‘77 Blazers, +8.47 (9th) > '70 Bucks, +4.96 (23rd)

When the '70 Bucks have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '70 Bucks' offense vs '77 Blazers' defense:

Regular Season: +3.1 Offensive Rating (10th) vs -1.5 Defensive Rating (27th): +1.6 expected
Playoffs: +5.7 Offensive Rating (5th) vs -5.9 Defensive Rating (10th): -0.2 expected

Lineup:

PG: Flynn Robinson, 25.1% SS on +3.8% rTS, 18.8 / 2.8 / 4.7
SG: Jon McGlocklin, 18.8% SS on +4.8% rTS, 15.2 / 2.7 / 3.2
SF: Bob Dandridge, 17.7% SS on +1.7% rTS, 11.4 / 6.6 / 3.1
PF: Greg Smith, 13.5% SS on +3.1% rTS, 8.5 / 7.5 / 1.6
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 26.1% SS on +4.1% rTS, 24.9 / 12.5 / 3.5
6th: Freddie Crawford, 18.5% SS on +0.3% rTS, 6.6 / 2.1 / 2.5

When the '77 Blazers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '77 Blazers' offense vs '70 Bucks' defense:

Regular Season: +3.7 Offensive Rating (6th) vs -0.9 Defensive Rating (33rd): +2.8 expected
Playoffs: +2.1 Offensive Rating (19th) vs +0.3 Defensive Rating (30th): +2.4 expected

Lineup:

PG: Lionel Hollins, 24.1% SS on -3.4% rTS, 13.6 / 2.6 / 3.8 / 2.5: -0.5 playoff OBPM
SG: Johnny Davis, 19.6% SS on -0.2% rTS, 7.4 / 1.5 / 1.8 / 0.6: +2.0 playoff OBPM
SF: Bob Gross, 16.5% SS on +6.9% rTS, 10.6 / 4.4 / 2.8 / 1.9: +4.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Maurice Lucas, 24.7% SS on +0.5% rTS, 18.7 / 10.6 / 2.7 / 1.7: +4.0 playoff OBPM
C: Bill Walton, 21.7% SS on +5.2% rTS, 17.2 / 13.3 / 3.5 / 3.9: +4.0 playoff OBPM
6th: Dave Twardzik, 13.1 SS on +17.8% rTS, 9.5 / 2.5 / 3.1 / 1.8: +1.3 playoff OBPM

Thoughts:

- Injuries: Johnny Davis misses Game 3, Dave Twardzik misses Games 4 & 5 for Portland.
- It’s so weird to look at the ‘70 Bucks. They have many of the same names as the ‘71 Bucks, but the impact is different. Dandridge isn’t yet an all-star. Kareem isn’t leading his team in shooting efficiency (something he’d do for most of his career). Their offense was good, to be sure. Rookie Kareem was a quality scorer for a big, and Flynn Robinson was a valuable high-scoring guard. Their offense in the regular season was excellent. And they blew apart the Sixers in the semifinals. But the ‘70 Knicks completely shut them down. Not Kareem, who averaged a 34/18/5 against Willis Reed on 55% from the floor. But Frazier held Flynn Robinson to 25% FG% while both McGlockin and Crawford shot below 38% from the field. So it’s a question about how well they’d hold up against the Blazers’ stout playoff defense. The Blazers definitely don’t have a defensive guard on Frazier’s level (who does?) and I don’t know how Walton would do against Kareem. Yes this is younger Kareem (who was generally less resilient) but Walton couldn’t really stop peak Kareem, and rookie Kareem did just fine against Willis Reed, who himself was no joke. But the Blazers’ overall defense was excellent (on a limited sample size, only slightly worse than the Knicks’). I’m concerned that if the Bucks’ supporting cast couldn’t handle the ‘70 Knicks’ defense, they probably wouldn’t do too well against the Blazers.
- The ‘77 Blazers didn’t honestly have a great offense. It was exceptional in the regular season, but it was fueled in part by Twardzik’s unsustainably efficient scoring on low volume. In the playoffs Twardzik missed time (and played notably worse) and shooting guard Johnny Davis missed time as well. And the Blazers’ offense regressed slightly. But a weird note on this matchup: the ‘70 Bucks’ defense was pretty pedestrian. The dominance of the Bucks’ defense would not come to pass until Kareem got a little more experience and Flynn Robinson had been traded for Oscar Robertson. So we’re basically looking at the Blazers’ equal opportunity attack led by Walton’s distribution against the Bucks who were young and much more offense-centered. So I think there’s every reason to think that the Blazers would score just fine.


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[penbeast0]

I would bet on the Blazers. The Bucks seem a year away and the Blazers seem more physical which sometimes bothered Kareem. It was Walton's only healthy playoff as a starter and the Blazer offense seemed reasonably resilient. Blazers in 6.

[homecourtloss]

Kareem is still obviously very good, but he’s a year away from dominant NBA Kareem, and of course no where near 1977 Kareem. The 1970 Bucks are better than that Lakers’ supporting cast of 1977, of course. Missing Twardzik and Davis for three games between them cuts down on the Blazers depth.

I would like the Blazers in 6, but with injuries I will say Blazers in 7.

[sansterre]

I love the early 70s Bucks as much as anyone, but the '70 Bucks are not in the same league and the '77 Blazers are a very solid team. Blazers in 6.

[wojoaderge]

Why do the Blazers have HCA?

[sansterre]

Why do the Blazers have HCA?

Because they're the higher seed.

Seeding is a mix of record, regular season SRS, postseason SRS and how far the team got in the playoffs.

[wojoaderge]

In the '77 playoffs, Walton spent the entire first round in foul trouble. Had the series been more than best of 3, the Blazers would have been in some real trouble. In the CF, the Lakers were very competitive in 3 of the 4 despite not having their starting PF for the whole series and their starting PG for two. What i'm trying to say is, when Walton had to expend a lot of energy guarding a another star center, the Blazers were quite vulnerable. Bucks in 6.

[sansterre]

In the '77 playoffs, Walton spent the entire first round in foul trouble. Had the series been more than best of 3, the Blazers would have been in some real trouble. In the CF, the Lakers were very competitive in 3 of the 4 despite not having their starting PF for the whole series and their starting PG for two. What i'm trying to say is, when Walton had to expend a lot of energy guarding a another star center, the Blazers were quite vulnerable. Bucks in 6.

I'm going to keep voting open another day to allow discussion on this point.

Do you think that '70 Kareem is at that level to challenge Walton? Your point about foul trouble in the first round is fair, but the Blazers still won that series by 6 points a game. Do you want to expand on your point?

[wojoaderge]

In the '77 playoffs, Walton spent the entire first round in foul trouble. Had the series been more than best of 3, the Blazers would have been in some real trouble. In the CF, the Lakers were very competitive in 3 of the 4 despite not having their starting PF for the whole series and their starting PG for two. What i'm trying to say is, when Walton had to expend a lot of energy guarding a another star center, the Blazers were quite vulnerable. Bucks in 6.

I'm going to keep voting open another day to allow discussion on this point.

Do you think that '70 Kareem is at that level to challenge Walton? Your point about foul trouble in the first round is fair, but the Blazers still won that series by 6 points a game. Do you want to expand on your point?

Yes, I think so, KAJ was the greatest college player of all time, and Walton was only in his 3rd year himself. The Bulls were only down 2 points with 35 seconds left in Game 3.

[sansterre]

Okay, so while there was some discussion this one is going Blazers, 3-1. They advance to face the '77 Blazers.

The Round of 32 is over! The Round of 16 is here!