Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980?

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Curry's rank on offense since 1980?

#1
12
26%
#2
7
15%
#3
7
15%
#4
10
21%
#5
7
15%
Not top-5
4
9%
 
Total votes: 47

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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#81 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:26 am

ShotCreator wrote:And Chris Paul is flat out not as skilled as Nash or Magic which is why none of my posts involve that line of thinking he’s on that level but certain stuff about conservative play, and pace, and ball pounding just don’t mesh with reality and it really feeds into other narratives trying to explain away why he could beat multiple 8+ SRS teams in a row just to reach the conference finals in his career.


Jokic and the Nuggets have been at a snails pace the past two years and there’s nothing conservative about his style of play at all.


Valid points to address.

Pace gets used as short hand for aggressive vs conservative because higher pace tends to mean more aggressive transition play. Of course, that's not the only type of aggressive play. I would argue that Jokic, Nash & Magic are all more known for aggressive half-court play than Paul, but I don't know how meaningful the correlation would be between half court pace and aggressiveness given that when I think of Jokic's half court aggression, I actually think of it happening after a possession has stagnated.

In terms of transition, I thought I'd look up some numbers from the NBA this year.

Current leaderboard of players with the most transition possessions per game:

1. Giannis A. 6.9
2. Jaylen Brown 5.9
3. Ja Morant 5.1
4. Russell Westbrook 4.9
(tie) Steph Curry 4.9 - higher PPP than those above him
6. LeBron James 4.8 - even higher PPG than Curry
(tie) Anthony Edwards 4.8 - even higher PPG than LeBron.

And other players relevant to what we're discussing:

Devin Booker 4.2
Will Barton 3.9

Nikola Jokic 2.1
Chris Paul 1.8

Now, I don't want to claim I know exactly what their criteria is here - it's entirely possible that outlet passers don't get credited appropriately for the transition play that follows - but what I think is crystal clear about this at the very least is that both Paul & Jokic have teammates who are the ones looking to do more transition running than they are.

It's possible that a more thorough search back into time will show data that points in some other direction of course. Paul is older now, so it would even make sense for him to have been more of a runner in the old days, but my impression from your post was that you were thinking of the current Phoenix Suns as a fast team and therefore saying Paul seemed to be doing just find on a fast team.

But if the question is whether Paul is driving that pace or whether he's the one having his Pace stats driven up by his teammates, I'd suggest the data points to them driving his Pace up. The big transition scorer isn't him and doesn't need him to score in transition, and the team plays faster when Paul is on the bench.

I think this also makes me pose the following question:

Were we ever actually suggesting Paul couldn't play faster? We might have been implying that he couldn't do it as well as other players, but what we were really saying is that Paul, when left to his own devices, generally looks to slow things down, and that can probably be characterized as settling the team down to avoid blown possessions.

By contrast, when we talk about aggressive guys, particularly in transition, we're talking about guys who are specifically looking to attack before the defense can get ready. A strategy, in other words.

What I see when I look at comparisons like this are differences in strategy, and every guy does their thing a little differently. Nash doesn't play that much like Magic, for example, despite the fact that their transition aggressiveness is similar. Paul has things in common with both, but when we focus on the differences, we see some contrast between error-reduction and opportunity-exploitation mindsets.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#82 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:35 am

Punishing a player for lack of turnovers is some real ish. Also, turnovers come more from ball handling not hail marry passes - Chris Paul has low turnovers because his handles are GOAT level.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#83 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:11 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:Punishing a player for lack of turnovers is some real ish. Also, turnovers come more from ball handling not hail marry passes - Chris Paul has low turnovers because his handles are GOAT level.


I don't think that's a fair statement in the slightest.

We're talking about ranking all-time greats, that inevitably leads to describing relative strengths and weaknesses, and I'm literally saying Paul was exceptional even among greats for his ability to reduce turnovers on his team.

For you to have concluded I was punishing him for that you had to make a series of leaps that managed to allow you to associate my positive statement with your own negative sentiment, and then blame me for the dissonance in your own mind.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#84 » by Peregrine01 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:24 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:Punishing a player for lack of turnovers is some real ish. Also, turnovers come more from ball handling not hail marry passes - Chris Paul has low turnovers because his handles are GOAT level.


Disagree heavily on this as well. CP3 almost never throws a high risk pass and the vast majority of turnovers from ball-handlers come not from steals off a live-dribble but a picked-off pass.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#85 » by falcolombardi » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:26 am

i think what hwartbreakkid meant is when low turnovers are seen as a proxy for lack of agressiveness, not that actual low turnovers themselves are criticized
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#86 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:35 am

falcolombardi wrote:i think what hwartbreakkid meant is when low turnovers are seen as a proxy for lack of agressiveness, not that actual low turnovers themselves are criticized


If he had meant that, he'd have said that. He added considerably more emotional charge to his allegation than would be justified by your statement, and did so in a way that can be recognized as a rhetorical technique.

What you say might be what he actually believes, but his communication held more information in it than that.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#87 » by ty 4191 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:25 pm

Where does Curry rank in offensive value, since 1980??

What metrics do you guys use to answer this question? How does Curry fare?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#88 » by ty 4191 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:28 pm

Career True Shooting Added is a good place to start, since it's adjusted for league/era context. Some notables, since 1980:

Miller 3449
Barkley 2972
Malone 2913
Shaq 2759
Lebron 2692
Stockton 2465
Curry 2391
Dirk 2350
Magic 2098
Jordan 1943
Paul 1332
Bryant 1122

Put another way, he's 92nd in total minutes played since 1980, yet 26th in Offensive Win Shares. So, on a per game basis, he might actually be top 5 since 1980, based on peak/prime offensive production.

Remember, he's only played essentially half the career minutes of players like Dirk, Garnett, Lebron, Malone, Kidd, Stockton, Byrant.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#89 » by ty 4191 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:32 pm

Career True Shooting Added is a good place to start, since it's adjusted for league/era context. Some notables, since 1980:

Miller 3449
Barkley 2972
Malone 2913
Shaq 2759
Lebron 2692
Stockton 2465
Curry 2391
Dirk 2350
Magic 2098
Jordan 1943
Paul 1332
Bryant 1122

Put another way, he's 92nd in total minutes played since 1980, yet 26th in Offensive Win Shares. So, on a per game basis, he might actually be top 5 since 1980, based on peak/prime offensive production.

Remember, he's only played essentially half the career minutes of players like Dirk, Garnett, Lebron, Malone, Kidd, Stockton, Byrant.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#90 » by fanofthegreats » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:30 pm

My ranking :

1. Jordan/Bron
3. Magic
4. Curry
5. Shaq
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#91 » by ty 4191 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:06 pm

Steph Curry is 27th among all players in Offensive Win Shares since 1980.

He's 3rd in Offensive Box Plus Minus.

He's 10th in Offensive Rating among all players with 25,000 Minutes Played. 216 players, total.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#92 » by Lost92Bricks » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:23 am

Peregrine01 wrote:Disagree heavily on this as well. CP3 almost never throws a high risk pass and the vast majority of turnovers from ball-handlers come not from steals off a live-dribble but a picked-off pass.

Even if this is true, why does it even matter if the team still ends up scoring on the possession?

Do you get extra points for a pass being more dangerous?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#93 » by Colbinii » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:35 pm

Lost92Bricks wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:Disagree heavily on this as well. CP3 almost never throws a high risk pass and the vast majority of turnovers from ball-handlers come not from steals off a live-dribble but a picked-off pass.

Even if this is true, why does it even matter if the team still ends up scoring on the possession?

Do you get extra points for a pass being more dangerous?


I think you're missing the point in which Doctor MJ is presenting.

A player like Nash is going to, in theory, present different and potentially more opportunities to score on possessions.

Some data [eFG% and TS ADD] does favor Nash in this regard compared to Paul, but does this simply mean Nash is more heliocentric than Paul and does it actually result in Nash being better?

I dont know.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#94 » by Colbinii » Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:02 pm

ShotCreator wrote:What he wasn’t conservative in was shot selection. Chris Paul took as hard and as high value of shots as almost anyone, and cashed in really well.

The Chris Paul impact breakdown is: Take all the hard shots and make them, and create all the easy shots for teammates.


This is an excellent breakdown of Chris Paul, especially after his early career injury where he couldn't get to the rim at will as he did in his NOP days. If we look at his shot profile it summarizes this perfectly.

Percentage of shots per location from 2008-2009 and post-injury (2010 Injury)

At Rim (2008-2009): 23.0% and 26.4% respectively

At Rim (2011-2022): 2%-15.3%

What we can see is Chris Paul allowed himself, through development and general lack of explosion/burst, to let his teammates take the shots at the rim (most effective shot in basketball) while Paul has almost entirely removed this shot from his arsenal. Look at his percentage of shots at the rim from 2015-Present Day: 8.5%, with 2% of his shots this season being at the rim.

How does this impact his teams? It allows cutters, roll man and any off-ball play to circumvent around the rim. It allows other slasher(s) to attack the rim (See James Harden and Blake Griffin) with space.

Midrange (2011-2022)): 44.3% on 49.2 FG% (4,452 shot attempts)

This volume and efficiency is remarkable. For comparison:

Dirk Nowitzki (2003-2011): 59.1% of his shots on 47.3 FG% (7,537 shot attempts)
Steve Nash (2001-2012): 38.5% of his shots on 48.3 FG% (4,192 shot attempts)
Steph Curry (2013-2022): 20.7% of his shots on 46.8 FG% (2300 shot attempts)

What we end up seeing with Paul is a player who operates similar to Dirk in that "I will take all the difficult shots in an offense [Midrange] while the rest of the team will take 3 point shots and lay-ups." We saw Chris Paul adapt and increase his 3P volume in Houston next to Harden, where Chris Paul went from an average of 5.6 3PA/100 [2011-2017] to 10.2 3PA/100 in 2018 which hints at Chris Paul being able to operate in a different style.

The style of offense in which Chris Paul ultimately plays and presents is evident in the fact his TS+ isn't in the same stratosphere as a "High Volume Scorer" like Steph Curry or even a lower-volume guy like Steve Nash. However, when we look at the team results of Chris Paul, we get all-time great offensive teams, particularly when he is on the court [the same can be said for Nash and Curry offenses).

Chris Paul's offensive On/Off and his On-court offensive rating relative to the league is also remarkable and comparable to the best.

Chris Paul -- Ortg On (+Rel League Average) / Off
2011: 109.5 (+2.2) / 98.3
2012: 113.5 (+8.9) / 99.5
2013: 116.5 (+10.6) / 104.3
2014: 114.3 (+7.6) / 109.4
2015: 118.1 (+12.5) / 98.6
2016: 118.6 (+12.2) / 99.6
2017: 118.7 (+9.9) / 107.3
2018: 119.8 (+11.2) / 111.7
2019: 115.2 (+4.8) / 117.0
2020: 116.3 (+5.7) / 102.1
2021: 118.1 (+5.8) / 117.3

At the end of the day I can see both Curry and Nash coming out on top of CP3 in terms of pure offensive specimens. As Players as a whole? That's not something I would concede yet.

With all this in mind, we may have missed the GOAT point guard given Paul's injury following his 2008 and 2009 campaigns.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#95 » by ty 4191 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:04 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Valid points to address.


Doctor- Which metrics did you look at and analyze to determine where Curry ranks offensively since 1980?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#96 » by ty 4191 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:07 pm

Colbinii wrote:
ShotCreator wrote:What he wasn’t conservative in was shot selection. Chris Paul took as hard and as high value of shots as almost anyone, and cashed in really well.


Same question here for you, Sir. :)

Which metrics do you/did you look at when choosing where Steph Curry ranks among all players offensively since 1980?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#97 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:49 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Valid points to address.


Doctor- Which metrics did you look at and analyze to determine where Curry ranks offensively since 1980?


It's a good question, I'll answer how I think about things, but to be clear, I use stats as building blocks not as my end assessments.

I'm big on +/- data. Not perfect, and needs to be viewed from a variety of lenses (regression, etc) , but in general, if I can't see evidence through this sort of data where such data is involved, it's hard for me to take a player seriously as an outlier of impact. (The value of +/- to make meaningful statements is easier with the outliers, a lack of such salient data doesn't mean an absence of impact, but it does mean that that player hasn't been able to separate himself like others have.)

The key players on this for me - and I think for RealGM generally - were Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett. With Nash we saw offensive +/- metrics that were just crazy, with KG it was first the overall +/- metrics and later specifically the defensive +/- metrics.

With Nash, there's a specific stat I tend to point to pertaining to on-court ORtg, because he has this remarkable streak where his presence on the court makes the best team offense every year from '04-05 to '10-11, where by '10-11 he literally has no one on the court with him who is anything close to an all-star level player, and I think this run gives him a serious case to be in the offensive GOAT conversation. (Big thing against aside from potential longevity arguments: Nash didn't play as many minutes as other guys.)

So when I'm evaluating Curry, who was heavily influenced as a player by Nash, I look for similar stuff and we find some of it. Curry has been the guy with the most dramatic offensive (and overall) +/- of the most dominant team of the +/- era ('96-97 onward).

Also, to this point Curry's led the league in all-season raw +/- 4 times and he has a massive lead this year. For our records to this point, only LeBron has done this more (5 times), with Duncan being the next guy down the list with 3, followed by Shaq and MJ doing it twice...though of course Jordan likely did it considerably more than twice over the entirety of his career. However based on the data we, the only guys to break the +1000 mark being from Curry's Warriors, with the highest total being Curry at +1257.

It matters to me that Curry has been the most impactful star on by the most dominant teams we've seen through this era, and while I factor in teammates and schemes, it's hard for me to take too seriously the idea we shouldn't treat the biggest outlier on the biggest outlier like someone amazing on the grounds that he had help.

Stuff going against Curry:

- In the pre-KD years, the Warriors' offense wasn't as strong in the playoffs as in the regular season. (People think this about Nash & the Suns but are wrong.)
- In the KD years, the rebuttal of having too much talent on the roster makes having the best team offenses in history less of an individual achievement.
- Injuries.

All of this is leading us to a critical moment now where we're seeing whether Curry can achieve this type of impact reliably in the playoffs without KD. Until it's demonstrated, skepticism is warranted. But Curry is quite possibly one great post-season away from being my resounding choice for offensive GOAT.
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#98 » by ty 4191 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:16 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:Curry is quite possibly one great post-season away from being my resounding choice for offensive GOAT.


Outstanding stuff. Thanks!

Where do you get all your plus minus data going back before 1996-1997?

Where do you get your advanced metrics you use most?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#99 » by ty 4191 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:18 pm

Doctor MJ wrote: Curry has been the guy with the most dramatic offensive (and overall) +/- of the most dominant team of the +/- era ('96-97 onward).


Same question, I guess. What are you basing this on pre 1996-1997?
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Re: Where does Curry rank on offense since 1980? 

Post#100 » by falcolombardi » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:19 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Valid points to address.


Doctor- Which metrics did you look at and analyze to determine where Curry ranks offensively since 1980?


It's a good question, I'll answer how I think about things, but to be clear, I use stats as building blocks not as my end assessments.

I'm big on +/- data. Not perfect, and needs to be viewed from a variety of lenses (regression, etc) , but in general, if I can't see evidence through this sort of data where such data is involved, it's hard for me to take a player seriously as an outlier of impact. (The value of +/- to make meaningful statements is easier with the outliers, a lack of such salient data doesn't mean an absence of impact, but it does mean that that player hasn't been able to separate himself like others have.)

The key players on this for me - and I think for RealGM generally - were Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett. With Nash we saw offensive +/- metrics that were just crazy, with KG it was first the overall +/- metrics and later specifically the defensive +/- metrics.

With Nash, there's a specific stat I tend to point to pertaining to on-court ORtg, because he has this remarkable streak where his presence on the court makes the best team offense every year from '04-05 to '10-11, where by '10-11 he literally has no one on the court with him who is anything close to an all-star level player, and I think this run gives him a serious case to be in the offensive GOAT conversation. (Big thing against aside from potential longevity arguments: Nash didn't play as many minutes as other guys.)

So when I'm evaluating Curry, who was heavily influenced as a player by Nash, I look for similar stuff and we find some of it. Curry has been the guy with the most dramatic offensive (and overall) +/- of the most dominant team of the +/- era ('96-97 onward).

Also, to this point Curry's led the league in all-season raw +/- 4 times and he has a massive lead this year. For our records to this point, only LeBron has done this more (5 times), with Duncan being the next guy down the list with 3, followed by Shaq and MJ doing it twice...though of course Jordan likely did it considerably more than twice over the entirety of his career. However based on the data we, the only guys to break the +1000 mark being from Curry's Warriors, with the highest total being Curry at +1257.

It matters to me that Curry has been the most impactful star on by the most dominant teams we've seen through this era, and while I factor in teammates and schemes, it's hard for me to take too seriously the idea we shouldn't treat the biggest outlier on the biggest outlier like someone amazing on the grounds that he had help.

Stuff going against Curry:

- In the pre-KD years, the Warriors' offense wasn't as strong in the playoffs as in the regular season. (People think this about Nash & the Suns but are wrong.)
- In the KD years, the rebuttal of having too much talent on the roster makes having the best team offenses in history less of an individual achievement.
- Injuries.

All of this is leading us to a critical moment now where we're seeing whether Curry can achieve this type of impact reliably in the playoffs without KD. Until it's demonstrated, skepticism is warranted. But Curry is quite possibly one great post-season away from being my resounding choice for offensive GOAT.


what about sample size? would one goat level offensive play off runs be enough to make up for the gap against guys who did it twice or more? (which there are not many but they exist)

of course if curry without durant does lead this warriors roster to the same level in the playoffs that may suggest he could have done it in 17-21 too if given the chance but it would be theorical compared to guys who proved it more times

similarly, how do we evaluate warriors underperformance with durant in the roster (2018 to a degree, 2019 regular season) when talking about curry? is a common criticism to other players cause is perceived as coasting but rarely brought up aa a criticism against curry

and as a last question. since you mention curry having the biggest +/- swings, how do you separate those from draymond (talking specifically about overall plus/minus here) since other players with huge +/- numbers like 2004 garnett or 2009 lebron didnt have teammates that looked just aa important as them (lebron or garnett plus/minus didnt seem so dependant on having cassel or mo Williams playing)

a minor point and more relevant to overall impact than purely offensive impact so not so important for this thread but i was curious on your thoughts on how to evaluate that when asigning "credit" for plus/minus impact

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