Texas Chuck wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Paul's style has a net-positive impact on defense, something statistically minded folks still need to venture further into.
Doc seems to be suggesting an impact stat versus box score stat way of looking at players and perhaps not intentionally but seems to be implying that those who give Paul more credit are relying on box score data to do so. I don't believe that to necessarily be the case.
I look at the Mavericks who are uniquely both a historically offensive-minded team and a low turnover team. Like a mind-bogglingly consistent low turnover team. Certain teams seem to have identities that last generations, and for Dallas this is them. This franchise does not turn the ball over. This isn't just a Rick Carlisle thing. It was true under Avery. It was true under Nelson. In fact, the last 3 years with Nash despite him being known as a high risk guy--in fact this risk is used often to justify his greatness to a degree--Dallas committed the fewest turnovers in the league.
Now the immediate connection here is Dirk one of the all-time great low turnover offensive anchors along with Paul and Kobe. But this was still true 2 seasons ago when the year after he retired Luka and the boys led a GOAT efficiency offense and yep 2nd fewest turnovers in the league despite Luka also being known as a high risk guy.
But what we see basically no connection with is Dallas having stronger defensive teams as a result. In fact outside of the 67 win team the defense has ranged from tragic to slightly above average in a few seasons, but mostly being a bad defense.
Now of course that doesn't mean it doesn't help the defense. Nothing is worse than live-ball turnovers and if you don't have many of those it helps. But in and of itself I don't think its all that significant. I think we should focus more on Paul's care with the ball means his team is more likely to get the opportunity to score. His ball security is a much bigger boon to the offense than the defense.
I highlight these numbers because I think they probably will surprise some people.
I think Dirk had a strong impact on his teams defense with the combination of his High Usage/Low Turnover.On / Off Splits with TEAM TOV% and Drtg
2001: 14.7% (101.1) / 15.4% (109.3)
2002: 12.8% (107.8) / 13.2% (106.3)
2003: 11.7% (101.1) / 15.3% (107.3)
2004: 12.7% (107.1) / 13.8% (107.5)
2005: 13.6% (103.3) / 17.0% (105.1)
2006: 14.2% (105.5) / 18.8% (102.5)
2007: 14.5% (103.9) / 18.0% (101.7)
2008: 13.1% (105.6) / 16.0% (106.5)
2009: 13.1% (108.4) / 16.3% (107.3)
2010: 13.5% (105.3) / 14.9% (109.8)
2011: 15.1% (103.0) / 15.8% (109.0
And after looking at this data as a single point, I see little correlation to my original hypothesis with Dirk.