Who on the Top 10 GOAT list is most overrated?

[feyki]

funny how teams that win a bunch of games have a bunch of WS to divide out. Using that stat to diminish any player that did that much winning shows a lack of understanding of the stat not that said player was overrated.

Your arguement is valid on the defensive end. But offensive win shares has no correlation with the team success. KG led the nba in the 2005.

[feyki]

Bill Russell's reputation is built on his winning.

But Russell was far from a one-man show:

36 times in 13 PO years, Russell's teammates made the top-10 in WS/48 in the Playoffs.

By contrast, only 10 times in 13 PO years did Wilt's teammates make the top-10 in WS/48 in the POs.

Here is a list of Russell's teammates who made the top 10 in WS/48 in the Playoffs ...


1957: Ramsey (1), Risen (2), Sharman (6), Heinsohn (8)

1958: Ramsey 2, Sharman 6, Cousy 8

1959: Ramsey 1, Sharman 4, Jones 8, Heinsohn 10

1960: Heinsohn 5, Ramsey 7, Sharman 8

1961: Sharman 1, Ramsey 5, Jones 6, Sanders 7, Cousy 9

1962: K. Jones 7, S. Jones 8, Ramsey 9


Next ...


1963: S. Jones 2, Heinsohn 6

1964: S. Jones 2

1965: S. Jones 4, K. Jones 8

1966: S. Jones 4, Sanders 6, Nelson 10

1967: S. Jones 4, Havlicek 5

1968: Nelson 3, Howell 8

1969: Nelson 2, Havlicek 6


Top-10 in WS/48 in playoffs, 1960-69 (Wilt vs. Russell era):

100 total players

7x Russell

8x Wilt (missed 1963 PO; too few PO games to qualify in 1961: would have been 3rd)

85 other top-10 WS/48 players:

25 (29%) Russell's teammates

7 (8%) Wilt's teammates

25-7 = 3.6 to 1 ratio

Russell also the greatest player ever by far, by the Playoffs WS.

[Texas Chuck]

funny how teams that win a bunch of games have a bunch of WS to divide out. Using that stat to diminish any player that did that much winning shows a lack of understanding of the stat not that said player was overrated.

Your arguement is valid on the defensive end. But offensive win shares has no correlation with the team success. KG led the nba in the 2005.

This has nothing to do with my point. That team won 44 games and Wally Z was the only other guy getting any WS of note. This season is probably KG's biggest true carry job season of his career.

A much better season to look at would be the 07 Mavs. A team that won 67 games and JET has 11 WS, Howard has 9, Devin and Damp have 6.5, Stack and Diop have 4.

Not because any of those players were anywhere near that big of a contributor but simply because the team won 67 games and you can't give all the credit to Dirk, but we all also understand if you removed Dirk from that roster, that team isn't anything close to a 50 win team that WS would tell you they were without him.

So its a fundamental misuse of that stat by the Wilt fan. Nothing more.

[Owly]

Magic is overrated due to playing in a very weak conference/division in the 80's.

Jordan is overrated here, as is Lebron. They simply shouldn't make up 95+% of the first place votes, all time, for GOAT.

Fwiw,

1) From the last project they didn't take 95+%. Over 13% chose another candidate and that's in in open voting format which somewhat incentivizes tactical voting if you see that there are only two viable (to win) candidates after a while.

2) Degree of consensus isn't always a good proxy for size of gap. I suspect a high degree of consensus that 100>99 though by a small margin. This clashes with my reading that Jordan and James are overrated as evidenced by the consensus. What number of people vote a player first tells us almost nothing about the gap that they, individuals or as an aggregated collective, perceive between 1 and 3 or 2 and 4 (nor 1 and 2, but seeing as they're being lumped together here, that doesn't so much matter).

Even if one as an individual were to feel "Russell [or Mikan] has a great range (including upside) depending on how I value playoffs, how I account for era (and longevity within the context of era) and my greater uncertainty about his performance levels with less data and less footage" the person in a simple vote will only show 1 piece of information, the person they mentally aggregated to be first.

So whilst I'm sympathetic, I'm not sure that the numbers offered stack up or that the argument (as I understood it) fully stands up.

[feyki]

funny how teams that win a bunch of games have a bunch of WS to divide out. Using that stat to diminish any player that did that much winning shows a lack of understanding of the stat not that said player was overrated.

Your arguement is valid on the defensive end. But offensive win shares has no correlation with the team success. KG led the nba in the 2005.

This has nothing to do with my point. That team won 44 games and Wally Z was the only other guy getting any WS of note. This season is probably KG's biggest true carry job season of his career.

A much better season to look at would be the 07 Mavs. A team that won 67 games and JET has 11 WS, Howard has 9, Devin and Damp have 6.5, Stack and Diop have 4.

Not because any of those players were anywhere near that big of a contributor but simply because the team won 67 games and you can't give all the credit to Dirk, but we all also understand if you removed Dirk from that roster, that team isn't anything close to a 50 win team that WS would tell you they were without him.

So its a fundamental misuse of that stat by the Wilt fan. Nothing more.

He's fundamentally in trouble when it comes to Wilt/Russell.

But that Mavs team were +3 defence and +5 offence over the lg average. Dirk had no relate with being 5th defence in the league. That's 30 WS or DWS.

I also think you're right in some points. Cumulative numbers metrics is not the right way to evaluate players impact.

[HeartBreakKid]

Saying Magic would have been the goat without HIV is silly. Magic was already in his 30s then.

Assuming he maintained his success rate were perhaps looking at Magic being a 4 or 5 time MVP and 6 or 7 time NBA champion with 4 or 5 FMVPs.

That would also take away some of those things from Jordan. So...its plausible.

The Lakers weren't good enough to win a championship anymore. And it's unlikely Magic would get an MVP over Jordan, Barkley, Hakeem.

[falcolombardi]

Saying Magic would have been the goat without HIV is silly. Magic was already in his 30s then.

Assuming he maintained his success rate were perhaps looking at Magic being a 4 or 5 time MVP and 6 or 7 time NBA champion with 4 or 5 FMVPs.

That would also take away some of those things from Jordan. So...its plausible.

The Lakers weren't good enough to win a championship anymore. And it's unlikely Magic would get an MVP over Jordan, Barkley, Hakeem.

even then, thw added longevity may make his case as a goat contender easier to make for many people who already see him as one of the goat peaks

[No-more-rings]

Magic would still be clearly worse than both Jordan and Lebron on peak/prime level, and he wouldn't have a longevity edge over Lebron or Kareem. I don't see the goat argument unless people think he reaches a new level and sustains it a really long time. He clearly wasn't going to peak any higher, his defense was already taking a hit with little to no offensive improvement.