How great at volume-scoring has Jokić been compared to other all-time great scoring bigs?

[WestGOAT]

This is a follow-up to a recent post of mine visualizing the best and worst NBA scorers for this season so far: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2144856

Jokić insane run this season made me want to put his scoring into historical perspective. 
Specifically, I want to figure out how dominant his scoring has been compared to those of Wilt, Kareem, and Shaq since these 3 are considered to be the GOAT scoring centers.

So I compared how much these players stood out relative to their respective high-scoring contemporaries. 
I combined relative Points per 100 Possessions (PP100) and TrueShooting Percentage (TS%) in one stat to enable convenient visualization below.

Based on this plot I'd say Jokić has been tremendous, and only Kareem's '71 and '72 and Shaq in '99 clearly scoring higher. That said I think it is fair to question how strong competition for Kareem was back at his peak. I'm curious to see if Jokić can keep this up for the rest of the season.

Methodology:

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Why adjust for contemporaries?
- Cross-era comparisons make direct comparisons of PP100 and TS% unfair. 
For example, league average TS% in 1974 was 50.7%, whereas the average last season was 58.1% for players that played at least 24 MPG on average. For PP100 this was 20.3 in 1974 and 24.8 last season. 

Why specifically high-scoring ones?
- While adjusting stats like TS% by taking the league average into account is a good start, I think adjusting for their roles is more suitable. When comparing cross-era volume-scoring why not stick to volume-scorers?
The likes of DeAndre Jordan and other low-volume and super-efficient role players would skew the results. 
That's why for each season I only included the players that formed the top 10% of PP100, or at least the top 10 in a season, making sure to only include those who played major minutes. 

How to measure and combine relative PP100 and TS%?
- Standardization by calculating how many standard deviations above or below a player was compared to the average of his cohort provides a way that enables cross-era comparisons.

For example, Curry in 2016 had a godly +11.01 TS% compared to his high-scoring peers, whereas Kenny Spears in 1959 was +9.13 TS% compared to his peers. 
However, if you'd measure how many standard deviations above the average they were you get the following numbers: +2.78 for Curry in 2016, and +4.45 for Kenny Spears in 1959. See attached stats for 1959 and 2016 below.

Importantly, standardization allows us to create a composite score of PP100 and TS%, a simple addition, in which both stats have equal weights.

Now going back to the 60s we can make use of "TS Add", but I wanted to do something a bit different, and like I mentioned taking league average into account overlooks that players have specialized roles. High-volume scores like Michael Jordan in 1988, IMO, get disproportionately penalized. 

1962

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      Year             Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1962  Wilt Chamberlain*    C  38.00  53.60    3.20  0.66   3.86
2     1962      Walt Bellamy*    C  29.14  55.44    0.11  1.43   1.54
3     1962   Oscar Robertson*   PG  26.68  55.43   -0.47  1.42   0.95
4     1962        Jerry West*   PG  29.13  52.44    0.11  0.24   0.35
5     1962      Elgin Baylor*   SF  33.57  49.21    1.25 -0.93   0.31
6     1962        Bob Pettit*   PF  28.51  52.25   -0.04  0.17   0.14
7     1962     Richie Guerin*   SG  26.29  51.58   -0.57 -0.06  -0.63
8     1962       Cliff Hagan*   SF  24.41  52.40   -1.06  0.23  -0.83
9     1962      Tom Heinsohn*   PF  26.83  48.25   -0.43 -1.35  -1.78
10    1962      Willie Naulls   SF  24.09  46.97   -1.15 -2.02  -3.17
mean   NaN                NaN  NaN  28.66  51.76    0.09 -0.02   0.07
std    NaN                NaN  NaN   4.26   2.85    1.29  1.13   1.90

1971

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      Year                Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1971  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*    C  33.42  60.58    3.53  2.65   6.18
2     1971            Dave Bing*   PG  31.14  53.98    1.53  0.33   1.86
3     1971           Jerry West*   PG  27.11  57.07   -0.27  1.19   0.92
4     1971          Chet Walker*   SF  26.61  54.14   -0.48  0.37  -0.11
5     1971            Lou Hudson   SF  26.83  52.72   -0.38  0.01  -0.38
6     1971           Bob Lanier*    C  27.39  50.30   -0.15 -0.61  -0.77
7     1971        Pete Maravich*   SG  26.31  51.22   -0.60 -0.37  -0.98
8     1971          Geoff Petrie   SG  26.66  49.93   -0.45 -0.71  -1.17
9     1971           Walt Wesley    C  26.04  50.20   -0.72 -0.64  -1.36
10    1971          Elvin Hayes*    C  26.20  46.77   -0.65 -1.72  -2.37
mean   NaN                   NaN  NaN  27.77  52.69    0.14  0.05   0.18
std    NaN                   NaN  NaN   2.47   3.97    1.36  1.20   2.42

1972

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      Year                Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1972  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*    C  34.00  60.27    4.41  1.78   6.18
2     1972          Chet Walker*   SF  29.36  58.27    0.38  1.08   1.46
3     1972       Tiny Archibald*   PG  28.74  57.24    0.10  0.78   0.87
4     1972        Gail Goodrich*   SG  28.73  54.79    0.09  0.12   0.21
5     1972           Bob Lanier*    C  28.30  53.76   -0.10 -0.14  -0.25
6     1972           Jerry West*   PG  27.42  54.58   -0.51  0.07  -0.44
7     1972            Lou Hudson   SG  27.07  54.91   -0.68  0.15  -0.53
8     1972              Bob Love   PF  28.97  49.01    0.20 -1.53  -1.33
9     1972      Spencer Haywood*   PF  26.25  52.73   -1.10 -0.41  -1.51
10    1972          Sidney Wicks   PF  26.46  47.60   -0.99 -2.11  -3.10
mean   NaN                   NaN  NaN  28.53  54.32    0.18 -0.02   0.16
std    NaN                   NaN  NaN   2.21   3.89    1.57  1.15   2.47

1999

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      Year               Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1999    Shaquille O'Neal*    C  39.60  58.37    4.00  2.03   6.03
2     1999         Karl Malone*   PF  35.10  57.73    1.34  1.71   3.05
3     1999           Shawn Kemp   PF  32.50  57.76    0.40  1.72   2.12
4     1999     Alonzo Mourning*    C  29.80  56.33   -0.52  1.08   0.56
5     1999          Grant Hill*   SF  31.60  54.35    0.09  0.31   0.40
6     1999       Allen Iverson*   SG  34.90  50.77    1.26 -1.06   0.20
7     1999            Rik Smits    C  31.80  52.67    0.16 -0.32  -0.16
8     1999          Tim Duncan*   PF  29.90  54.06   -0.49  0.20  -0.29
9     1999  Shareef Abdur-Rahim   SF  30.70  53.03   -0.21 -0.18  -0.40
10    1999       Glenn Robinson   SF  30.20  52.31   -0.38 -0.45  -0.84
11    1999       Keith Van Horn   PF  30.50  51.86   -0.28 -0.63  -0.91
12    1999          Steve Smith   SG  28.80  52.58   -0.87 -0.35  -1.23
13    1999      Stephon Marbury   PG  29.00  51.92   -0.80 -0.60  -1.40
14    1999         Gary Payton*   PG  28.90  51.89   -0.84 -0.61  -1.45
15    1999      Antonio McDyess    C  29.10  51.47   -0.77 -0.78  -1.54
16    1999       Kevin Garnett*   PF  28.90  49.31   -0.84 -1.71  -2.55
mean   NaN                  NaN  NaN  31.33  53.53    0.08  0.02   0.10
std    NaN                  NaN  NaN   2.97   2.69    1.26  1.08   2.11


2022

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      Year                 Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     2022           Nikola Jokić    C  40.00  66.36    1.59  2.70   4.29
2     2022           Kevin Durant   PF  38.80  62.64    1.05  1.35   2.40
3     2022  Giannis Antetokounmpo   PF  40.20  60.11    1.69  0.62   2.31
4     2022          Stephen Curry   PG  38.00  60.55    0.72  0.75   1.47
5     2022             Trae Young   PG  39.30  58.29    1.27  0.14   1.41
6     2022            Zach LaVine   SF  36.20  60.37    0.01  0.70   0.71
7     2022     Karl-Anthony Towns    C  34.20  62.45   -0.77  1.29   0.52
8     2022          DeMar DeRozan   PF  36.50  59.19    0.13  0.38   0.51
9     2022       Donovan Mitchell   SG  37.70  57.36    0.60 -0.11   0.49
10    2022            Joel Embiid    C  36.80  57.03    0.25 -0.19   0.05
11    2022              Ja Morant   PG  35.90  56.37   -0.10 -0.37  -0.47
12    2022            Luka Dončić   PG  36.70  54.01    0.21 -1.02  -0.81
13    2022           Devin Booker   SG  34.70  56.35   -0.57 -0.37  -0.95
14    2022           Jayson Tatum   SF  35.50  53.74   -0.26 -1.09  -1.35
15    2022     Kristaps Porziņģis   PF  32.70  54.91   -1.42 -0.76  -2.18
16    2022            Paul George   SF  33.80  52.68   -0.94 -1.41  -2.35
17    2022         Brandon Ingram   SF  32.40  54.35   -1.56 -0.92  -2.48
18    2022           Bradley Beal   SG  31.60  52.93   -1.96 -1.33  -3.29
mean   NaN                    NaN  NaN  36.17  57.76   -0.00  0.02   0.02
std    NaN                    NaN  NaN   2.58   3.80    1.06  1.09   1.97

1959

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      Year             Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1959        Kenny Sears   PF  24.23  59.01   -0.80  4.45   3.65
2     1959        Bob Pettit*   PF  30.42  51.93    2.51  0.35   2.85
3     1959       Paul Arizin*   SF  26.81  51.89    0.35  0.34   0.69
4     1959       Cliff Hagan*   SF  26.23  51.64    0.10  0.26   0.36
5     1959       Jack Twyman*   SF  28.23  47.95    1.02 -0.90   0.13
6     1959  Clyde Lovellette*    C  26.20  50.70    0.08 -0.03   0.06
7     1959    George Yardley*   SF  26.62  49.51    0.27 -0.39  -0.12
8     1959      Elgin Baylor*   SF  25.36  48.84   -0.28 -0.60  -0.88
9     1959     Dolph Schayes*   PF  23.01  48.79   -1.45 -0.62  -2.07
10    1959      Bill Sharman*   SG  22.95  47.64   -1.49 -1.01  -2.49
mean   NaN                NaN  NaN  26.01  50.79    0.03  0.18   0.22
std    NaN                NaN  NaN   2.30   3.30    1.18  1.58   1.91

2016

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      Year             Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     2016      Stephen Curry   PG  42.50  66.94    3.45  2.78   6.22
2     2016       Kevin Durant   SF  39.10  63.40    1.70  1.65   3.34
3     2016       James Harden   SG  37.40  59.84    1.06  0.75   1.81
4     2016       LeBron James   SF  36.50  58.82    0.75  0.52   1.27
5     2016      Kawhi Leonard   SF  32.80  61.56   -0.46  1.17   0.71
6     2016   DeMarcus Cousins    C  37.40  53.83    1.06 -0.60   0.46
7     2016     Damian Lillard   PG  35.10  55.98    0.28 -0.12   0.17
8     2016      Klay Thompson   SG  32.10  59.70   -0.69  0.72   0.03
9     2016      Anthony Davis    C  33.90  55.88   -0.10 -0.14  -0.24
10    2016      Isaiah Thomas   PG  33.60  56.22   -0.20 -0.06  -0.27
11    2016  Russell Westbrook   PG  33.90  55.36   -0.10 -0.26  -0.36
12    2016      DeMar DeRozan   SG  33.70  54.98   -0.17 -0.34  -0.51
13    2016        Paul George   SF  33.00  55.73   -0.40 -0.17  -0.57
14    2016        Brook Lopez    C  30.80  56.25   -1.15 -0.06  -1.20
15    2016       Kyrie Irving   PG  32.10  54.05   -0.69 -0.55  -1.25
16    2016    Carmelo Anthony   SF  32.00  52.99   -0.73 -0.80  -1.53
17    2016     Reggie Jackson   PG  31.00  53.47   -1.07 -0.69  -1.76
18    2016        Dwyane Wade   SG  32.00  51.74   -0.73 -1.10  -1.83
19    2016       Kobe Bryant*   SF  31.30  46.94   -0.97 -2.47  -3.43
mean   NaN                NaN  NaN  34.22  56.51    0.04  0.01   0.06
std    NaN                NaN  NaN   3.09   4.49    1.14  1.12   2.11

[70sFan]

That sounds interesting, thank you a lot for this work!

I'm not sure if top 10% is representative enough to use it as a field, maybe adjust the numbers to top 20%? What's your thought on that?

Other than that, I actually like that idea of non-linear adjustments. Using standard deviation should give us a better era adjustments. I'd love to play with the numbers myself. I wouldn't combine efficiency and volume into one stat personally, but I understand that it's easier for graphic visualisation. That said, I've worked with much more complicated stats before and the visualisation shouldn't be a concern here.

What is your source for per possession volume before 1974 by the way?

[BelgradeNugget]

Great work man. It would be great if you could include Hakeem in comparison.

[WestGOAT]

I'm not sure if top 10% is representative enough to use it as a field, maybe adjust the numbers to top 20%? What's your thought on that?

I considered that, but I feel that top 20% is not a strict cut-off to only include the biggest volume-scorers. Couple of examples below:

1971

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18 players out of 217 in total filtered
corresponds to: 8.29 %
      Year                Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1971  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*    C  33.42  60.58    4.32  3.74   8.06
2     1971            Dave Bing*   PG  31.14  53.98    2.27  0.61   2.88
3     1971           Jerry West*   PG  27.11  57.07    0.23  1.76   1.99
4     1971          Chet Walker*   SF  26.61  54.14    0.02  0.67   0.68
5     1971            Lou Hudson   SF  26.83  52.72    0.11  0.20   0.31
6     1971        Calvin Murphy*   PG  26.03  53.20   -0.24  0.35   0.12
7     1971           Bob Lanier*    C  27.39  50.30    0.36 -0.60  -0.25
8     1971        Pete Maravich*   SG  26.31  51.22   -0.12 -0.30  -0.41
9     1971              Bob Love   PF  25.67  51.53   -0.40 -0.20  -0.59
10    1971          Geoff Petrie   SG  26.66  49.93    0.04 -0.73  -0.69
11    1971     Billy Cunningham*   SF  24.96  51.88   -0.71 -0.08  -0.79
12    1971        John Havlicek*   SF  25.38  51.27   -0.53 -0.28  -0.81
13    1971          Bob Kauffman   PF  24.57  52.25   -0.89  0.04  -0.85
14    1971           Walt Wesley    C  26.04  50.20   -0.23 -0.64  -0.87
15    1971               Don May   SF  24.70  51.51   -0.83 -0.20  -1.04
16    1971          Earl Monroe*   PG  25.10  50.24   -0.65 -0.62  -1.28
17    1971           Jim Barnett   SG  24.24  49.46   -1.05 -0.89  -1.94
18    1971          Elvin Hayes*    C  26.20  46.77   -0.16 -1.94  -2.10
mean   NaN                   NaN  NaN  26.58  52.12    0.09  0.05   0.13
std    NaN                   NaN  NaN   2.29   3.05    1.28  1.20   2.33

1999

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34 players out of 440 in total filtered
corresponds to: 7.73 %

      Year               Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1999    Shaquille O'Neal*    C  39.60  58.37    4.51  1.98   6.49
2     1999         Karl Malone*   PF  35.10  57.73    2.15  1.72   3.87
3     1999           Shawn Kemp   PF  32.50  57.76    1.14  1.73   2.88
4     1999       Reggie Miller*   SG  28.60  59.00   -0.21  2.24   2.02
5     1999     Alonzo Mourning*    C  29.80  56.33    0.20  1.19   1.39
6     1999       Allen Iverson*   SG  34.90  50.77    2.06 -0.75   1.32
7     1999          Grant Hill*   SF  31.60  54.35    0.82  0.49   1.31
8     1999     Hakeem Olajuwon*    C  28.60  55.94   -0.21  1.05   0.84
9     1999            Rik Smits    C  31.80  52.67    0.89 -0.09   0.80
10    1999           Ray Allen*   SG  27.50  56.40   -0.59  1.22   0.63
11    1999          Tim Duncan*   PF  29.90  54.06    0.23  0.39   0.62
12    1999  Shareef Abdur-Rahim   SF  30.70  53.03    0.51  0.04   0.54
13    1999      David Robinson*    C  27.00  56.43   -0.77  1.23   0.46
14    1999       Glenn Robinson   SF  30.20  52.31    0.33 -0.21   0.12
15    1999         Kobe Bryant*   SG  27.50  54.88   -0.59  0.68   0.08
16    1999       Keith Van Horn   PF  30.50  51.86    0.44 -0.37   0.07
17    1999          Steve Smith   SG  28.80  52.58   -0.15 -0.12  -0.27
18    1999      Stephon Marbury   PG  29.00  51.92   -0.08 -0.35  -0.42
19    1999         Gary Payton*   PG  28.90  51.89   -0.11 -0.36  -0.47
20    1999      Antonio McDyess    C  29.10  51.47   -0.04 -0.50  -0.55
21    1999      Mitch Richmond*   SG  27.50  52.74   -0.59 -0.06  -0.66
22    1999         Vince Carter   SF  28.10  51.64   -0.39 -0.44  -0.83
23    1999           Gary Trent   PF  28.50  50.96   -0.25 -0.68  -0.93
24    1999         Paul Pierce*   SF  25.40  53.97   -1.34  0.36  -0.99
25    1999     Jerry Stackhouse   SG  28.40  50.86   -0.28 -0.72  -1.00
26    1999       Michael Finley   SF  26.50  51.72   -0.95 -0.42  -1.36
27    1999       Kevin Garnett*   PF  28.90  49.31   -0.11 -1.27  -1.38
28    1999       Maurice Taylor   PF  27.60  50.48   -0.56 -0.85  -1.41
29    1999         Tim Hardaway   PG  26.70  51.07   -0.87 -0.64  -1.52
30    1999     Latrell Sprewell   SF  27.20  50.33   -0.70 -0.90  -1.60
31    1999       Patrick Ewing*    C  27.90  49.06   -0.46 -1.37  -1.82
32    1999         Juwan Howard   SF  25.50  51.03   -1.31 -0.66  -1.96
33    1999          Toni Kukoč*   SF  27.30  49.02   -0.66 -1.38  -2.04
34    1999       Antoine Walker   PF  26.60  47.58   -0.91 -1.94  -2.85
mean   NaN                  NaN  NaN  29.23  52.93    0.03  0.01   0.04
std    NaN                  NaN  NaN   2.92   2.91    1.13  1.04   1.84


2022

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Code: Select all

34 players out of 490 in total filtered
corresponds to: 6.94 %

      Year                   Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     2022             Nikola Jokić    C  40.00  66.36    1.88  2.98   4.86
2     2022             Kevin Durant   PF  38.80  62.64    1.53  1.70   3.23
3     2022    Giannis Antetokounmpo   PF  40.20  60.11    1.94  0.95   2.90
4     2022            Stephen Curry   PG  38.00  60.55    1.31  1.08   2.39
5     2022               Trae Young   PG  39.30  58.29    1.68  0.45   2.12
6     2022       Karl-Anthony Towns    C  34.20  62.45    0.29  1.64   1.94
7     2022              Zach LaVine   SF  36.20  60.37    0.82  1.03   1.85
8     2022            DeMar DeRozan   PF  36.50  59.19    0.90  0.70   1.59
9     2022         Donovan Mitchell   SG  37.70  57.36    1.22  0.19   1.42
10    2022              Joel Embiid    C  36.80  57.03    0.98  0.10   1.08
11    2022                Ja Morant   PG  35.90  56.37    0.74 -0.08   0.66
12    2022        LaMarcus Aldridge    C  28.60  62.07   -1.17  1.53   0.35
13    2022             Devin Booker   SG  34.70  56.35    0.42 -0.08   0.34
14    2022              Luka Dončić   PG  36.70  54.01    0.95 -0.73   0.23
15    2022        Jonas Valančiūnas    C  29.50  60.62   -0.93  1.10   0.17
16    2022             Jayson Tatum   SF  35.50  53.74    0.63 -0.80  -0.17
17    2022           Andrew Wiggins   SF  29.10  59.39   -1.04  0.75  -0.29
18    2022            Anthony Davis    C  31.40  56.89   -0.43  0.06  -0.36
19    2022       Kristaps Porziņģis   PF  32.70  54.91   -0.09 -0.48  -0.57
20    2022           Brandon Ingram   SF  32.40  54.35   -0.17 -0.63  -0.80
21    2022             Jordan Poole   SG  28.20  58.18   -1.28  0.42  -0.87
22    2022              Paul George   SF  33.80  52.68    0.19 -1.10  -0.91
23    2022              Tyler Herro   SG  31.00  53.93   -0.53 -0.75  -1.28
24    2022        Jaren Jackson Jr.   PF  29.60  55.21   -0.90 -0.39  -1.30
25    2022             Bradley Beal   SG  31.60  52.93   -0.38 -1.03  -1.41
26    2022          Anthony Edwards   SG  29.70  54.63   -0.88 -0.55  -1.43
27    2022           Damian Lillard   PG  30.70  53.48   -0.61 -0.87  -1.49
28    2022              LaMelo Ball   PG  29.40  54.66   -0.96 -0.54  -1.50
29    2022             Jerami Grant   PF  29.50  54.01   -0.93 -0.73  -1.65
30    2022             Cole Anthony   PG  28.30  54.70   -1.26 -0.53  -1.79
31    2022             De'Aaron Fox   PG  29.70  53.21   -0.88 -0.95  -1.83
32    2022  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   PG  30.40  52.52   -0.69 -1.15  -1.84
33    2022              CJ McCollum   SG  28.50  52.22   -1.20 -1.23  -2.44
34    2022          Jordan Clarkson   SG  29.40  50.74   -0.96 -1.68  -2.63
mean   NaN                      NaN  NaN  33.06  56.65    0.01  0.01   0.02
std    NaN                      NaN  NaN   3.88   3.67    1.03  1.05   1.80


That said you do have a point as Hakeem Olajuwon misses the cut a number of times ('88, '90, '91) during his prime as you will see below.

I'd love to play with the numbers myself. I wouldn't combine efficiency and volume into one stat personally, but I understand that it's easier for graphic visualisation. That said, I've worked with much more complicated stats before and the visualisation shouldn't be a concern here.

I'll look into where to best upload the dataset when I'm done finalizing it, would definitely love it if people make use of it!
You have any suggestions for visualizing the data in a single plot? I considered a 3D plot, but I'd think it'd become too messy.

What is your source for per possession volume before 1974 by the way?

I had to make a rough calculation based on the total number of minutes a player played for his team, and the pace his respective team played at (which basketball ref both provides). With this, you can get an estimation of the number of possessions a player played in a season. Let's take Paul Arizin in 1952 as an example:

Spoiler:

Total minutes played: 2939
PHW pace: 95.5 possessions / game
2939 / 48 minutes = 61.22.. total games
61.22 * 95.5 = 5847.38 possessions in total

It's not going to be super accurate, but I think It's better than nothing

Great work man. It would be great if you could include Hakeem in comparison.

I was also curious, but my strict cut-off left out a couple of his prime seasons, so didn't decide to include him initially.
That said, I was actually surprised to see how poorly he performed to the others:


He did have some tough competition in his prime though:

1995

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Code: Select all

      Year             Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1995  Shaquille O'Neal*    C  40.00  58.76    3.13  0.70   3.83
2     1995    David Robinson*    C  36.90  60.17    1.37  1.34   2.70
3     1995       Karl Malone*   PF  36.30  58.99    1.11  0.80   1.91
4     1995     Reggie Miller*   SG  31.80  62.04   -0.56  2.39   1.83
5     1995   Hakeem Olajuwon*    C  35.80  56.28    0.91 -0.31   0.60
6     1995          Glen Rice   SF  31.40  58.55   -0.71  0.61  -0.10
7     1995   Charles Barkley*   PF  32.80  57.22   -0.19  0.07  -0.13
8     1995     Patrick Ewing*    C  34.00  55.52    0.24 -0.63  -0.39
9     1995     Clyde Drexler*   SG  30.90  57.70   -0.90  0.26  -0.64
10    1995          Rik Smits    C  31.30  57.10   -0.75  0.02  -0.73
11    1995    Cedric Ceballos   SF  31.30  57.03   -0.75 -0.01  -0.76
12    1995        Jim Jackson   SG  33.50  54.85    0.06 -0.92  -0.86
13    1995    Mitch Richmond*   SG  30.60  55.15   -1.02 -0.78  -1.81
14    1995     Jamal Mashburn   SF  32.80  52.56   -0.19 -2.07  -2.27
15    1995     Glenn Robinson   SF  30.70  53.85   -0.98 -1.38  -2.36
mean   NaN                NaN  NaN  33.34  57.05    0.05  0.01   0.05
std    NaN                NaN  NaN   2.77   2.48    1.15  1.11   1.81


[Peregrine01]

Not surprised at all that Hakeem grades less well as a scorer in comparison to Kareem and Shaq and even Jokic for that matter. He too often took tough shots, which he made at a decent clip, but were still relatively low efficiency shots.

[Whopper_Sr]

This is with Jokic not getting calls (likely one of the lowest FTr despite play style) and the Nuggets straight up wasting many possessions with Jokic not being involved in the action. He's on track to become the GOAT offensive big and a top 10 big ever overall.

[70sFan]

I considered that, but I feel that top 20% is not a strict cut-off to only include the biggest volume-scorers. Couple of examples below:

1971

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18 players out of 217 in total filtered
corresponds to: 8.29 %
      Year                Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1971  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*    C  33.42  60.58    4.32  3.74   8.06
2     1971            Dave Bing*   PG  31.14  53.98    2.27  0.61   2.88
3     1971           Jerry West*   PG  27.11  57.07    0.23  1.76   1.99
4     1971          Chet Walker*   SF  26.61  54.14    0.02  0.67   0.68
5     1971            Lou Hudson   SF  26.83  52.72    0.11  0.20   0.31
6     1971        Calvin Murphy*   PG  26.03  53.20   -0.24  0.35   0.12
7     1971           Bob Lanier*    C  27.39  50.30    0.36 -0.60  -0.25
8     1971        Pete Maravich*   SG  26.31  51.22   -0.12 -0.30  -0.41
9     1971              Bob Love   PF  25.67  51.53   -0.40 -0.20  -0.59
10    1971          Geoff Petrie   SG  26.66  49.93    0.04 -0.73  -0.69
11    1971     Billy Cunningham*   SF  24.96  51.88   -0.71 -0.08  -0.79
12    1971        John Havlicek*   SF  25.38  51.27   -0.53 -0.28  -0.81
13    1971          Bob Kauffman   PF  24.57  52.25   -0.89  0.04  -0.85
14    1971           Walt Wesley    C  26.04  50.20   -0.23 -0.64  -0.87
15    1971               Don May   SF  24.70  51.51   -0.83 -0.20  -1.04
16    1971          Earl Monroe*   PG  25.10  50.24   -0.65 -0.62  -1.28
17    1971           Jim Barnett   SG  24.24  49.46   -1.05 -0.89  -1.94
18    1971          Elvin Hayes*    C  26.20  46.77   -0.16 -1.94  -2.10
mean   NaN                   NaN  NaN  26.58  52.12    0.09  0.05   0.13
std    NaN                   NaN  NaN   2.29   3.05    1.28  1.20   2.33

1999

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34 players out of 440 in total filtered
corresponds to: 7.73 %

      Year               Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     1999    Shaquille O'Neal*    C  39.60  58.37    4.51  1.98   6.49
2     1999         Karl Malone*   PF  35.10  57.73    2.15  1.72   3.87
3     1999           Shawn Kemp   PF  32.50  57.76    1.14  1.73   2.88
4     1999       Reggie Miller*   SG  28.60  59.00   -0.21  2.24   2.02
5     1999     Alonzo Mourning*    C  29.80  56.33    0.20  1.19   1.39
6     1999       Allen Iverson*   SG  34.90  50.77    2.06 -0.75   1.32
7     1999          Grant Hill*   SF  31.60  54.35    0.82  0.49   1.31
8     1999     Hakeem Olajuwon*    C  28.60  55.94   -0.21  1.05   0.84
9     1999            Rik Smits    C  31.80  52.67    0.89 -0.09   0.80
10    1999           Ray Allen*   SG  27.50  56.40   -0.59  1.22   0.63
11    1999          Tim Duncan*   PF  29.90  54.06    0.23  0.39   0.62
12    1999  Shareef Abdur-Rahim   SF  30.70  53.03    0.51  0.04   0.54
13    1999      David Robinson*    C  27.00  56.43   -0.77  1.23   0.46
14    1999       Glenn Robinson   SF  30.20  52.31    0.33 -0.21   0.12
15    1999         Kobe Bryant*   SG  27.50  54.88   -0.59  0.68   0.08
16    1999       Keith Van Horn   PF  30.50  51.86    0.44 -0.37   0.07
17    1999          Steve Smith   SG  28.80  52.58   -0.15 -0.12  -0.27
18    1999      Stephon Marbury   PG  29.00  51.92   -0.08 -0.35  -0.42
19    1999         Gary Payton*   PG  28.90  51.89   -0.11 -0.36  -0.47
20    1999      Antonio McDyess    C  29.10  51.47   -0.04 -0.50  -0.55
21    1999      Mitch Richmond*   SG  27.50  52.74   -0.59 -0.06  -0.66
22    1999         Vince Carter   SF  28.10  51.64   -0.39 -0.44  -0.83
23    1999           Gary Trent   PF  28.50  50.96   -0.25 -0.68  -0.93
24    1999         Paul Pierce*   SF  25.40  53.97   -1.34  0.36  -0.99
25    1999     Jerry Stackhouse   SG  28.40  50.86   -0.28 -0.72  -1.00
26    1999       Michael Finley   SF  26.50  51.72   -0.95 -0.42  -1.36
27    1999       Kevin Garnett*   PF  28.90  49.31   -0.11 -1.27  -1.38
28    1999       Maurice Taylor   PF  27.60  50.48   -0.56 -0.85  -1.41
29    1999         Tim Hardaway   PG  26.70  51.07   -0.87 -0.64  -1.52
30    1999     Latrell Sprewell   SF  27.20  50.33   -0.70 -0.90  -1.60
31    1999       Patrick Ewing*    C  27.90  49.06   -0.46 -1.37  -1.82
32    1999         Juwan Howard   SF  25.50  51.03   -1.31 -0.66  -1.96
33    1999          Toni Kukoč*   SF  27.30  49.02   -0.66 -1.38  -2.04
34    1999       Antoine Walker   PF  26.60  47.58   -0.91 -1.94  -2.85
mean   NaN                  NaN  NaN  29.23  52.93    0.03  0.01   0.04
std    NaN                  NaN  NaN   2.92   2.91    1.13  1.04   1.84


2022

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

34 players out of 490 in total filtered
corresponds to: 6.94 %

      Year                   Player  Pos  PP100    TS%  PP100Δ   TSΔ  Score
1     2022             Nikola Jokić    C  40.00  66.36    1.88  2.98   4.86
2     2022             Kevin Durant   PF  38.80  62.64    1.53  1.70   3.23
3     2022    Giannis Antetokounmpo   PF  40.20  60.11    1.94  0.95   2.90
4     2022            Stephen Curry   PG  38.00  60.55    1.31  1.08   2.39
5     2022               Trae Young   PG  39.30  58.29    1.68  0.45   2.12
6     2022       Karl-Anthony Towns    C  34.20  62.45    0.29  1.64   1.94
7     2022              Zach LaVine   SF  36.20  60.37    0.82  1.03   1.85
8     2022            DeMar DeRozan   PF  36.50  59.19    0.90  0.70   1.59
9     2022         Donovan Mitchell   SG  37.70  57.36    1.22  0.19   1.42
10    2022              Joel Embiid    C  36.80  57.03    0.98  0.10   1.08
11    2022                Ja Morant   PG  35.90  56.37    0.74 -0.08   0.66
12    2022        LaMarcus Aldridge    C  28.60  62.07   -1.17  1.53   0.35
13    2022             Devin Booker   SG  34.70  56.35    0.42 -0.08   0.34
14    2022              Luka Dončić   PG  36.70  54.01    0.95 -0.73   0.23
15    2022        Jonas Valančiūnas    C  29.50  60.62   -0.93  1.10   0.17
16    2022             Jayson Tatum   SF  35.50  53.74    0.63 -0.80  -0.17
17    2022           Andrew Wiggins   SF  29.10  59.39   -1.04  0.75  -0.29
18    2022            Anthony Davis    C  31.40  56.89   -0.43  0.06  -0.36
19    2022       Kristaps Porziņģis   PF  32.70  54.91   -0.09 -0.48  -0.57
20    2022           Brandon Ingram   SF  32.40  54.35   -0.17 -0.63  -0.80
21    2022             Jordan Poole   SG  28.20  58.18   -1.28  0.42  -0.87
22    2022              Paul George   SF  33.80  52.68    0.19 -1.10  -0.91
23    2022              Tyler Herro   SG  31.00  53.93   -0.53 -0.75  -1.28
24    2022        Jaren Jackson Jr.   PF  29.60  55.21   -0.90 -0.39  -1.30
25    2022             Bradley Beal   SG  31.60  52.93   -0.38 -1.03  -1.41
26    2022          Anthony Edwards   SG  29.70  54.63   -0.88 -0.55  -1.43
27    2022           Damian Lillard   PG  30.70  53.48   -0.61 -0.87  -1.49
28    2022              LaMelo Ball   PG  29.40  54.66   -0.96 -0.54  -1.50
29    2022             Jerami Grant   PF  29.50  54.01   -0.93 -0.73  -1.65
30    2022             Cole Anthony   PG  28.30  54.70   -1.26 -0.53  -1.79
31    2022             De'Aaron Fox   PG  29.70  53.21   -0.88 -0.95  -1.83
32    2022  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   PG  30.40  52.52   -0.69 -1.15  -1.84
33    2022              CJ McCollum   SG  28.50  52.22   -1.20 -1.23  -2.44
34    2022          Jordan Clarkson   SG  29.40  50.74   -0.96 -1.68  -2.63
mean   NaN                      NaN  NaN  33.06  56.65    0.01  0.01   0.02
std    NaN                      NaN  NaN   3.88   3.67    1.03  1.05   1.80


That said you do have a point as Hakeem Olajuwon misses the cut a number of times ('88, '90, '91) during his prime as you will see below.

It's always tough to make a cut off point, but I find these results quite good to be honest. Maybe you can use the compromise value at 15%? I just think that 10% might be screwed too much by some outlier values, but that's your choice in the end.

I'll look into where to best upload the dataset when I'm done finalizing it, would definitely love it if people make use of it!
You have any suggestions for visualizing the data in a single plot? I considered a 3D plot, but I'd think it'd become too messy.

Yeah, 3D plots rarely are clear - I wouldn't use it. You can try to use the typical 2D plot with volume on horizontal axis and efficiency on vertical axis. Just use different colors for different players and label each point with a specific year. I'm not sure if it'd look better, but you may try to do that.

I'll play with graphs when you find a way to upload your database.

I had to make a rough calculation based on the total number of minutes a player played for his team, and the pace his respective team played at (which basketball ref both provides). With this, you can get an estimation of the number of possessions a player played in a season. Let's take Paul Arizin in 1952 as an example:

Spoiler:

Total minutes played: 2939
PHW pace: 95.5 possessions / game
2939 / 48 minutes = 61.22.. total games
61.22 * 95.5 = 5847.38 possessions in total

It's not going to be super accurate, but I think It's better than nothing

I think that's fair. Of course there are possible scenarios when it wouldn't work that easily, but the error margin should be negligible in most cases.


Your idea may help me visualising scoring ability of the best bigs ever in my greatest centers peak project. It looks really interesting and promising. I'd also calculate the same standard deviation values for league averages to see how different the results will be for each player.

[70sFan]

This is with Jokic not getting calls (likely one of the lowest FTr despite play style) and the Nuggets straight up wasting many possessions with Jokic not being involved in the action. He's on track to become the GOAT offensive big and a top 10 big ever overall.

Kareem has even lower FTr in some of his prime seasons, so I don't think Jokic is some kind of outlier in that aspect. Hakeem had a bit higher FTr, but not that high either.

[Whopper_Sr]

This is with Jokic not getting calls (likely one of the lowest FTr despite play style) and the Nuggets straight up wasting many possessions with Jokic not being involved in the action. He's on track to become the GOAT offensive big and a top 10 big ever overall.

Kareem has even lower FTr in some of his prime seasons, so I don't think Jokic is some kind of outlier in that aspect. Hakeem had a bit higher FTr, but not that high either.

Kareem does look really good here considering the minutes he played. Tough task for Jokic to pass him in scoring.

72% career FT shooter isn’t elite but certainly not hack a name territory either. Just a shade below LeBron’s as a big.

[ty 4191]

On a per game basis, since it's only 33 games in, where does Jokic's current season rank in box score and on/off metrics, all time?

Overall value, not just scoring.

How about since the beginning of last season, including the playoffs last year?

[ty 4191]

Can OP please update this including the entirety of 2021-2022 including playoffs?

Thank you!!

[ty 4191]

This is a follow-up to a recent post of mine visualizing the best and worst NBA scorers for this season so far: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2144856

Thank you in advance for updating this, if possible!!

[tsherkin]

Great stuff, as always!

Not surprised at all that Hakeem grades less well as a scorer in comparison to Kareem and Shaq and even Jokic for that matter. He too often took tough shots, which he made at a decent clip, but were still relatively low efficiency shots.

Yeah, he's definitely one whose scoring value erodes as we move into the contemporary age. His efficiency was, in his own age, fine, and resilient into the playoffs. Better, actually, by a couple percent. Defenses weren't really making him work any harder because he gamed for difficult shots to begin with, shots they weren't really able to take away from him. But he certainly fell far behind Kareem and Shaq, no question.

This is with Jokic not getting calls (likely one of the lowest FTr despite play style) and the Nuggets straight up wasting many possessions with Jokic not being involved in the action. He's on track to become the GOAT offensive big and a top 10 big ever overall.

Yeah, he doesn't draw like Shaq, but then, very few volume scorers in league history have done. Jokic was at .357 FTr this season, though, which was his best yet. Hakeem was a career .363 guy, .370 from 85-97. Kareem was a .329 FTr player, though, quite a bit lower. He had 3 seasons around .370 in his first three years, and from 70-81, he was a .334 FTr player. He didn't play power ball and he didn't use quickness to blow past people and finish at the rim (though he did a little more of that as a Buck, of course). Mostly what he did was game for that skyhook, which didn't draw a ton of fouls but was obviously a very efficient shot.

For perspective, there are only 63 player-seasons of 25+ ppg, 0.500+ FTr and 60+ games. Shaq has 6 of them. Karl Malone has 7 of them. James Harden also has 7. D-Rob has 4. Barkley and Giannis both have four. Jerry West, Oscar Robertson, Adrian Dantley, and Bob Pettit each have three.

So it's really not so much about Jokic not getting calls as looking more so at style of play and historical precedent. Now, 25 ppg and 0.500 FTr are somewhat arbitrary thresholds, of course. If you drop the FTr to 0.45, then it becomes 114 player-seasons. You start seeing more representation from Oscar, West, and Pettit, and so on like that. But really high-end draw isn't a thing from most of the historical bigs. .350 or thereabouts is much more common, except among the athletic freaks.

Wilt never managed this feat because he got enamored of passing and never hit that 25 ppg threshold after 1966 (apart from a 12-game season). But he was a career .505 FTr guy, and 60-66, he posted 39.6 ppg and .433. So again, pretty close to that second threshold I posted, and a decent indicator of the arbitrary aspect of the threshold. He was obviously an absolute monster (particularly in-era) at drawing fouls while scoring in volume.

But now again, let's say 60 games, 25+ ppg, .43+ FTr and 6'10 or taller, yeah?

Now we have 41 player-seasons to wade through. Shaq still grades out on top of that. 7 seasons. No one else more than 4. Wilt, Walt Bellamy, Moses Malone, and Mikan with 3, Durant with 4.

It pays to keep some perspective about this stuff. Jokic gets calls at a fairly expected rate for his size and style. Don't forget that he takes 3, 4 3PA/g as well. If you don't include those, then he drew at 0.457 FTr on 2PA this past season, which was actually quite high.

[penbeast0]

You might want to use rTS% (straight TS% penalizes players who played in a lower efficiency environment) and point % (less sure of this one but percentage of team's points per minute played might be a better way of showing how much scoring is actually taking place without mucking about with pace and the like).

[tsherkin]

You might want to use rTS% (straight TS% penalizes players who played in a lower efficiency environment) and point % (less sure of this one but percentage of team's points per minute played might be a better way of showing how much scoring is actually taking place without mucking about with pace and the like).

rTS is good. Normalizing to like PTS75 might help gake some of the sting out of the pace fluctuations, for sure. Or even PTS100, really, since that's easy enough to find.

[Peregrine01]

For perspective, there are only 63 player-seasons of 25+ ppg, 0.500+ FTr and 60+ games. Shaq has 6 of them. Karl Malone has 7 of them. James Harden also has 7. D-Rob has 4. Barkley and Giannis both have four. Jerry West, Oscar Robertson, Adrian Dantley, and Bob Pettit each have three.

The biggest anomaly among these is Harden. 10 seasons of > 50% FTr and a career 3 pt attempt rate of 46%. Truly a master at whistle baiting.

[WestGOAT]

This is a follow-up to a recent post of mine visualizing the best and worst NBA scorers for this season so far: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2144856

Thank you in advance for updating this, if possible!!

Hi! I updated the data to also include this season!

I also adjusted the the criteria for a player to qualify less stringent, so players that shot less would also make the list, for example Wilt from '67 onwards, here you go: