Assume every players has average longevity. What does the top 20 look like now?
Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:40 pm
Assume every players has average longevity. What does the top 20 look like now? Even guys like walton, mikan..
Sports is our Business
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2156733
No-more-rings wrote:I feel like when my list gets up that high, I mostly look at prime anyways and not as much at all the extra seasons. It’s not a significant mix up for me. Kareem definitely isn’t 3rd anymore, I’d give Shaq or Hakeem serious consideration for that spot. I think Curry is likely top 15 whereas if his career ended today he’s maybe around 19 or 20 for me. Karl definitely falls out of the top 20. His average prime level isn’t top 20 at all. Wade makes a significant push for top 15 for me. I don’t think the top 10 changes much aside from a few spots mixed around. Lebron and MJ are still top 2 obviously.
70sFan wrote:It would help the case for Bird and Curry, who are outside my top 10 because of longevity. They could drop KG from the 10th spot.
It would probably make me choose Bill Russell as the GOAT. Jordan might be ranked ahead of James, though I'd have to think about it.
Hakeem and Duncan would be a very tough debate. Shaq wouldn't gain that much - he would still have durability issues.
Of course Bill Walton would fight for top 10 rank, but it's not realistic to assume good longevity from him.
Wade vs Kobe would be a great debate.
penbeast0 wrote:Hawkins? AS we assume he doesn't get that knee injury in his second actual ABA season; we also may get his 20s when he was barred from playing after being ABL MVP at 19.
70sFan wrote:No-more-rings wrote:I feel like when my list gets up that high, I mostly look at prime anyways and not as much at all the extra seasons. It’s not a significant mix up for me. Kareem definitely isn’t 3rd anymore, I’d give Shaq or Hakeem serious consideration for that spot. I think Curry is likely top 15 whereas if his career ended today he’s maybe around 19 or 20 for me. Karl definitely falls out of the top 20. His average prime level isn’t top 20 at all. Wade makes a significant push for top 15 for me. I don’t think the top 10 changes much aside from a few spots mixed around. Lebron and MJ are still top 2 obviously.
So based on bolded part, you believe that Shaq and Hakeem had definitely higher quality primes than Kareem. Why do you think so? I don't find it clear at all.
No-more-rings wrote:I didn’t intend to imply there’s some big gap at all, but with those 2 looking at what they did i tend to favor Shaq’s playoff performances pre-2000 than pre-1977 of Kareem. He just seemed more consistent.
I get Kareem faced some great defenders but so did Shaq like squaring off against Hakeem, Duncan, Drob etc.
Also, I don’t think you can point to a 4 straight years of sustained playoff dominance that compares to 2000-03 Shaq anywhere in Kareem’s career.
If you think it’s there i’d like to see it. Shaq also peaked in probably the toughest defensive era post shot clock in that 99-04 period.
Hakeem vs Kareem feels like a less natural comparison since Hakeem’s impact skewed more defense than offense. Hakeem at least in the playoffs floor raised more than almost anyone, and his 94 playoff run was just insanely legendary probably better than any playoff run from Kareem.
70sFan wrote:
1. The main argument against Kareem here are his series against Thurmond in 1972 and 1973. It's fair to criticize him for them, but even then here are the stats of both:
70sFan wrote:1970-76 Kareem in playoffs: 29.7 ppg, 16.8 rpg, 4.0 apg on 51.0 FG%, 69.9 FT% and 54.0 TS%, 25.5 PER and .236 WS/48
1993-99 Shaq in playoffs: 26.7 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 3.3 apg on 57.0 FG%, 51.6 FT% and 57.3 TS%, 27.7 PER and .180 WS/48
Shaq scored on higher efficiency (not a big difference given era adjustments) but on notably lower volume (again, it's fair to include pace adjustments as well). Kareem was still a notably better rebounder though (even with pace adjustments) and better passer. On top of that, he was much better defender, which leads us to second point...
2. Shaq's defense was incredibly inconsistent during that time. I know that we can't just judge players defense based on team results, but these numbers don't put him in a good perspective:Spoiler:
70sFan wrote:It looks really bad. Outside of the early rounds of 1995, Shaq never led strong defensive team in the postseason and more often than not, teams scored much better against his teams than in RS.
70sFan wrote:3. What makes Shaq actually more consistent in postseason in given seasons? When we look at disappointing performances from both, I can count two for Kareem (1972 vs Warriors and 1973 vs Warriors) and 3 for Shaq (1994 vs Pacers, 1997 vs Jazz and 1999 vs Spurs). I guess you can include 1972 vs Lakers as well, but then I'd add 1996 vs Bulls and 1998 vs Jazz (horrible defensive performance). 3 out of 11 series isn't more than 5 out of 15.
70sFan wrote:Shaq didn't look that consistent against Spurs though. Neither he did against Ostertag. He did well vs Hakeem, but so did Kareem vs Cowens and Reed.
70sFan wrote:Why does it have to be straight years? By this logic, LeBron can't compare to Shaq either because he had some weaker showings in all 4 years sample you can find (2011 for 2009-12, 2015 for 2012-15 or 2015-18, no playoffs in 2019 for 2016-19).
70sFan wrote:Kareem has a lot of postseason runs comparable to three peat Shaq (1970, 1971, 1974, 1977, 1980).
70sFan wrote:I don't think I'd call 1994 Hakeem postseason better than 1974 or 1977 Kareem. I think it's close, but from watching both of them last year, I think that Jabbar in 1977 was more complete player than 1994 Hakeem and he played on the higher level.
No-more-rings wrote:I don't think Thurmond had the lower body strength to make life hard for Shaq.
That's fine to think Kareem is a better and more consistent defender, but think Shaq's offensive impact and warping of defenses is just higher. We don't have per 100 possessions numbers pre-74 for Kareem's career, but comparing those years and on to Shaq, the raw number advantage looks less impressive. And based on their free throw draw rate, i see no reason to believe Kareem was putting the same type of foul pressure on front courts.
Kareem also got a lot of those numbers beating down weak frontcourts like that of the Sixers, Bullets, Bulls, Lakers(post Wilt),and Celtics(74).
He generally folded against Thurmond, he had a great series against Wilt who was a shell of his former self, but I think generally you'd have to say Shaq was accustomed to facing bigger and stronger front courts I don't see how it's even debatable really.
I'm not convinced Kareem is a better rebounder really btw. His rebounding numbers relative to some others don't seem as impressive, this is a time when guys like Unseld or Gus Johnson could average 17 RPG. Old man Wilt was still capable of 18-19 per game. I fail to see how Shaq doesn't average 16+ himself.
Guys like Reed and Unseld are not a match for Shaq in the post i mean come on. Ben Wallace couldn't guard Shaq, so i doubt Unseld could.
Yeah but on the contrary, Shaq's team ORTG from 97-01 was one of the best ever according to Elgee's work. And outside of 2001 in that span Shaq's help on offense seems unimpressive.
So i don't think i'd count 1994, it was 3 games and Shaq was 21 years old up against two good defenders one of which was 7'4.
The 97 series seems likely more due to Shaq's meh conditioning that year, it was far from one of his healthier seasons.
Besides Shaq the following year put up 32/9 against the same team.
The 99 Spurs were like probably the best defense ever, I guess depending how you compare them to some of Russell's squads but a 95 DRTG was just insane for that time. I'm not confident in pre-peak Kareem doing all that great against that team either
I'm not saying it has to be, but shouldn't Shaq get a lot of credit for being able to have 3 straight deep runs plus 2 more series with sustained excellence?
71 isn't on that level, and 77 is too short of a sample that ended in a sweep anyway.
I don't care who was "more complete" per say. I don't see any version of Kareem taking a cast like that to the title, and Hakeem doing work on that Knick defense while also shutting down Ewing at the same time was really something else.
70sFan wrote:Sorry but this argument has no value to me. Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it's not possible. I think you vastly underrated how much Kareem was capable of on basketball court.
ty 4191 wrote:.70sFan wrote:.
penbeast0 wrote:That said, the 70s are the weakest era in basketball history since the league became integrated.ty 4191 wrote:.70sFan wrote:.
Code: Select all
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
1960 0.175
1961 0.135 Expansion Year: Packers Added
1962 0.157
1963 0.151
1964 0.157
1965 0.153
1966 0.128
1967 0.165 ABA Added, Rockets, Supersonics Added
1968 0.163 Expansion: Bucks, Suns Added
1969 0.147
Decade Average 0.153
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
1970 0.116 Expansion: Clippers, Cavaliers, Trailblazers Added
1971 0.141
1972 0.181
1973 0.192
1974 0.129
1975 0.114
1976 0.102 Expansion: Jazz Added
1977 0.096 Merger: Nuggets, Pacers, Nets, Spurs Added
1978 0.109
1979 0.101
Decade Average 0.128
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
1980 0.149
1981 0.157 Expansion: Mavericks Added
1982 0.149
1983 0.158
1984 0.112
1985 0.143
1986 0.141
1987 0.151
1988 0.154
1989 0.159 Expansion: Pellcans, Heat Added
Decade Average 0.147
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
1990 0.171 Expansion: Timberwolves, Magic Added
1991 0.155
1992 0.156
1993 0.155
1994 0.174
1995 0.158
1996 0.168 Expansion: Raptors, Grizzlies Added
1997 0.188
1998 0.186
1999 0.157
Decade Average 0.167
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Pecentage
2000 0.158
2001 0.154
2002 0.136
2003 0.142
2004 0.134
2005 0.153 Expansion: Hornets Added
2006 0.134
2007 0.13
2008 0.166
2009 0.169
Decade Average 0.148
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
2010 0.16
2011 0.158
2012 0.154
2013 0.153
2014 0.155
2015 0.161
2016 0.166
2017 0.134
2018 0.147
2019 0.144
Decade Average 0.153
Year Standard Deviation of Winning Percentage
2020 0.152
2021 0.137
Decade Average 0.144