2022 Morant vs 2011 Rose
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:14 pm
Better Player?
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ceiling raiser wrote:Athletically or as a player?
This comparison isn’t fair to Rose. Morant is a bonafide top ten player in the league today. Rose was probably a stretch of an all-star pick.
LukaTheGOAT wrote:I think Morant is better offensively, while Rose is leaps ahead as a defender.
ceiling raiser wrote:Athletically or as a player?
This comparison isn’t fair to Rose. Morant is a bonafide top ten player in the league today. Rose was probably a stretch of an all-star pick.
AussieBuck wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:I think Morant is better offensively, while Rose is leaps ahead as a defender.
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Rose has never been leaps ahead of anyone as a defender other than like maybe at his best compared to Trae or Forbes.
ceiling raiser wrote:Athletically or as a player?
This comparison isn’t fair to Rose. Morant is a bonafide top ten player in the league today. Rose was probably a stretch of an all-star pick.
bigboi wrote:this is clearly Morant, he's better at pretty much everything.
rand wrote:bigboi wrote:this is clearly Morant, he's better at pretty much everything.
If this is true, it should probably show up statistically.
PPG / RPG / APG (TOPG) / SPG / BPG Per 100
Morant: 39.1p / 8.5r / 9.7a (5.0t) / 1.8s / 0.6b
Rose: 35.6p / 5.8r / 10.9a (4.9t) / 1.5s / 0.9b
TS% / rTS%
Morant: .572 / +.012
Rose: .550 / +.009
RAPM / DRAPM
Morant: +1.1 / -0.6
Rose: +3.0 / +0.1
BPM / DBPM / WS48
Morant: +5.9 / -0.2 / .174
Rose: +6.3 / +0.5 / .208
Per Game lines look very close except in rebounding, which is mostly due to a big increase in Ja's defensive rebounding this year (they're only separated by 0.6 ORB Per 100). Ja also scores a little more, but assists a little less with a marginally worse assist/TO ratio.
Relative to their era their efficiency is almost identical but in absolute terms Ja is more efficient. Often in cross-era comparisons this is due to the newer player shooting more 3s or a higher 3P% but that's not true here. Their 3P% is identical (.332) and 3PA Per 100 almost identical (Rose actually leads 6.8 to 6.5). Ja's higher efficiency is owed entirely to his higher 2P% (.535 to .481), which IMO is a byproduct of playing in an era with a lot more interior space. League wide 2P% in 2011 was .485, this season it's .528; that 4.3% gap is almost all of the gap between the two players' 2P%. If Ja played in 2011 there's every reason to expect he would be around Rose's .550 TS%.
Advanced stats favor Rose, RAPM especially. It's especially worth noting DRAPM favors Rose, which is significant because the box stats have more trouble capturing defensive value. Rose's superior DRAPM also calls into question the significance of Morant's sizable lead in defensive rebounds per game. If DRAPM is taken at face value, either Ja's edge in DRBs per game doesn't translate into any real edge in overall defensive value, or it's more than offset by other defensive attributes. But of course, no stat including RAPM (or even better advanced stats) is absolutely authoritative.
The stats certainly don't say "Ja is better at pretty much everything" to me. They seem to confirm what my eyes tell me, which is that they're very close overall with maybe a very slight edge for one or the other in scoring and playmaking, and that perhaps Rose is doing some things a little better on both ends that aren't captured in the box score.
Lou Fan wrote:The D-Rose slander is crazy in this thread. We get it he shouldn't have been MVP but not an all-star? How else was that team winning and making the ECF (worth noting that Rose was completely dominant in the first two rounds before the clunker vs the Heat)? Rose was certainly an all star and one of the best guards in the league that year.
SecondTake wrote:Lou Fan wrote:The D-Rose slander is crazy in this thread. We get it he shouldn't have been MVP but not an all-star? How else was that team winning and making the ECF (worth noting that Rose was completely dominant in the first two rounds before the clunker vs the Heat)? Rose was certainly an all star and one of the best guards in the league that year.
You're kidding right? That Bulls team was stacked, and although I think Rose was their best player, it's definitely debatable. They had Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer all with very strong cases.
Lockdown504090 wrote:rand wrote:bigboi wrote:this is clearly Morant, he's better at pretty much everything.
If this is true, it should probably show up statistically.
PPG / RPG / APG (TOPG) / SPG / BPG Per 100
Morant: 39.1p / 8.5r / 9.7a (5.0t) / 1.8s / 0.6b
Rose: 35.6p / 5.8r / 10.9a (4.9t) / 1.5s / 0.9b
TS% / rTS%
Morant: .572 / +.012
Rose: .550 / +.009
RAPM / DRAPM
Morant: +1.1 / -0.6
Rose: +3.0 / +0.1
BPM / DBPM / WS48
Morant: +5.9 / -0.2 / .174
Rose: +6.3 / +0.5 / .208
Per Game lines look very close except in rebounding, which is mostly due to a big increase in Ja's defensive rebounding this year (they're only separated by 0.6 ORB Per 100). Ja also scores a little more, but assists a little less with a marginally worse assist/TO ratio.
Relative to their era their efficiency is almost identical but in absolute terms Ja is more efficient. Often in cross-era comparisons this is due to the newer player shooting more 3s or a higher 3P% but that's not true here. Their 3P% is identical (.332) and 3PA Per 100 almost identical (Rose actually leads 6.8 to 6.5). Ja's higher efficiency is owed entirely to his higher 2P% (.535 to .481), which IMO is a byproduct of playing in an era with a lot more interior space. League wide 2P% in 2011 was .485, this season it's .528; that 4.3% gap is almost all of the gap between the two players' 2P%. If Ja played in 2011 there's every reason to expect he would be around Rose's .550 TS%.
Advanced stats favor Rose, RAPM especially. It's especially worth noting DRAPM favors Rose, which is significant because the box stats have more trouble capturing defensive value. Rose's superior DRAPM also calls into question the significance of Morant's sizable lead in defensive rebounds per game. If DRAPM is taken at face value, either Ja's edge in DRBs per game doesn't translate into any real edge in overall defensive value, or it's more than offset by other defensive attributes. But of course, no stat including RAPM (or even better advanced stats) is absolutely authoritative.
The stats certainly don't say "Ja is better at pretty much everything" to me. They seem to confirm what my eyes tell me, which is that they're very close overall with maybe a very slight edge for one or the other in scoring and playmaking, and that perhaps Rose is doing some things a little better on both ends that aren't captured in the box score.
also to note regarding era, if you gave derrick jaren jackson jr. and slo mo spacing from the 4 spot instead of booz, derrick game look a lot different.