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I had been thinking about this...

I was thinking that it's easier to determine when a player has reached their prime and exited their prime after their career.

And generally their prime is about 85% + of the production of their Peak Season. Regular + Playoffs.

honestly sk somethingh you can only know after the fact

most people would have said steve nash was in
his prime in 2003 for example, nobody saw phoenx nash coming

now ir feels weird to say dallas nash was his prime when Phoenix version was so much more impactful (if not necesarrily much more capable)

even knowing when a player has left his prime or just had a down year is tricky, lebron James in 2015 is a good example of a player whose prime looked like it had ended and decline started before arguably his playoffs peak

I think this depends on the person. I bet you'd get a lot of varying answers whether 1998 MJ was in his prime or not. On one hand he won MVP and Finals MVP so obviously still has an argument for best player in the league but when comparing it to seasons like 1990 or 1991 he was definitely a level below that in 1998.

Goes by numbers really. Lebron is still in his prime and had been arguably since his second season.

When a player's average drop markedly from one season to the next and stay that way that last season before the numbers dropped can be said to be the end of their prime.

Barkley, for example, prime started in 86 or 87 and ended in 96 or 97.

For stars or all-time greats, it boils down to whether they can still be the best player [Not clear cut best player but in discussion] on a championship contender or not.
Subjective? Of course, like all player analysis there is going to be some level of subjectivity, but ultimately it varies player to player.

I'm comfortably saying Dirks prime was 2001-2014, Garnetts from 1998-2012, Duncans essentially 1998-2015.

Eye test.

LeBron, Curry, and Durant are not in their primes.

I start by realizing all of this is arbitrary and so I try and not get too hung up on it. For me if you are still having positive impact that's a good season even if it's not as good as your best. For instance take Tim Duncan. Literally every season of his career was at least "good" and most of them great. So I don't dismiss his seasons in his mid and late 30's but I see lots of posters who do because they are no longer "prime".

I tend to view it like Colbini, that I'm going to err on considering more seasons prime rather than less. But mainly for me, if you are a positive for your team then I'm counting that season towards how I evaluate your career. I feel its appropriate to measure players based on the actual objectives they are striving for. So longevity counts big for me. Impact on team matters a lot more than box score tallies. Because the goal is to win games, series, and championships or at least it should be. I do realize many players aren't about team as much as they are about self. But if you choose the wrong goal, you still get measured by me according to the correct ones.

I have quite different definition of prime than Colbinii. To me prime is a period when a player can reach peak (~top 3 season) level of dominance in small samples (playoff series, RS month) even if he can't do it consistently anymore. That's why I don't think Duncan was in his prime anymore after 2008. I don't think James is still in his prime either, despite his high volume stats.

70sFan wrote:I have quite different definition of prime than Colbinii. To me prime is a period when a player can reach peak (~top 3 season) level of dominance in small samples (playoff series, RS month) even if he can't do it consistently anymore. That's why I don't think Duncan was in his prime anymore after 2008. I don't think James is still in his prime either, despite his high volume stats.

I cared more about the term prime in the past than I do now. It simply doesn't hold much, if any weight/value for me when evaluating players at this point in my player comparison and analysis hobby. It's similar to the term portability in that its a massive umbrella term and other words exist which are better at articulating a point of discussion for basketball analysis.

Prime is simply defined as a subjective cut-off for when a player is near peak level. How near peak level a player is is nearly 100% subjective and can easily be construed or be used in ill-advised ways to support an argument for a favorite player.

That said, I do think what you are attempting to capture [Seasons of level of play closer to Peak Levels than mine] holds value and opens up avenues for discussion, for example: When would you put a start and stop on the primes of Garnett and Dirk [and Duncan, though I assume he is 1998-2008].

I think part of it is a numbers threshold. Like if you're a rookie or second year player, for example, averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds, or 17 and 7 assists, and playing an acceptable or better level of defense, you have to be at least somewhat in your prime. Right?

Definitely varies from player to player, but when looking back at many of the All Time Great careers they normally break down into a couple few different eras of varying length.

Here's how I would chop up some of the ATGs...

LeBron (Age 20-23) 26.8 PER | .561 TS% | .220 WS/48
LeBron (Age 24-29) 30.2 PER | .613 TS% | .290 WS/48
LeBron (Age 30-33) 27.3 PER | .602 TS% | .221 WS/48
LeBron (Age 34-37) 25.4 PER | .593 TS% | .187 WS/48

Michael (Age 21-23) 27.8 PER | .571 TS% | .226 WS/48
Michael (Age 24-29) 30.5 PER | .595 TS% | .292 WS/48
Michael (Age 31-34) 27.1 PER | .556 TS% | .272 WS/48

Kareem (Age 23-25) 29.1 PER | .597 TS% | .330 WS/48
Kareem (Age 26-30) 26.8 PER | .574 TS% | .251 WS/48
Kareem (Age 31-33) 25.4 PER | .622 TS% | .225 WS/48
Kareem (Age 34-38) 22.8 PER | .613 TS% | .192 WS/48

Wilt (Age 23-24) 27.9 PER | .506 TS% | .242 WS/48
Wilt (Age 25-27) 31.7 PER | .547 TS% | .291 WS/48
Wilt (Age 28-31) 27.0 PER | .556 TS% | .260 WS/48
Wilt (Age 32-36) 20.2 PER | .596 TS% | .206 WS/48

Magic (Age 21-26) 23.4 PER | .609 TS% | .211 WS/48
Magic (Age 27-31) 25.8 PER | .611 TS% | .251 WS/48

Larry (Age 25-27) 23.7 PER | .557 TS% | .215 WS/48
Larry (Age 28-31) 26.6 PER | .596 TS% | .242 WS/48

Shaq (Age 21-25) 28.0 PER | .584 TS% | .220 WS/48
Shaq (Age 26-30) 30.1 PER | .585 TS% | .260 WS/48

Admiral (Age 24-26) 27.1 PER | .604 TS% | .255 WS/48
Admiral (Age 28-30) 29.8 PER | .589 TS% | .286 WS/48
Admiral (Age 31-35) 25.4 PER | .569 TS% | .252 WS/48

Duncan (Age 21-24) 23.6 PER | .553 TS% | .205 WS/48
Duncan (Age 25-28) 27.0 PER | .556 TS% | .250 WS/48
Duncan (Age 29-33) 24.5 PER | .541 TS% | .205 WS/48

Durant (Age 21-23) 25.3 PER | .601 TS% | .217 WS/48
Durant (Age 24-28) 28.5 PER | .640 TS% | .282 WS/48
Durant (Age 29-33) 24.5 PER | .638 TS% | .207 WS/48

Giannis (Age 22-23) 26.7 PER | .599 TS% | .209 WS/48
Giannis (Age 24-27) 31.0 PER | .629 TS% | .276 WS/48

Jokic (Age 21-24) 25.5 PER | .607 TS% | .217 WS/48
Jokic (Age 25-26) 31.6 PER | .648 TS% | .298 WS/48

Hmm I'd say Started their prime is when they start dominating (or putting out peak level production) In at least 65-70% of the games in a playoff series. Peaks they're outputting that kinda production in 90% of the games (everyone has duds)

So if you're looking at peak level MJ being '91 or '92 I'd say 86-87 MJ could probably approximate a peak MJ game for about half a series. So he might be good for 3 games max at THAT caliber while still having 4 other very good games.

Once you start getting to 89 that equation flips and he's probably peak MJ production in 4-5 games. 91-92 being peak means you're getting that a guaranteed 5-6 games (allowing for a dud here and there) in a series. And then that probably continues until 96 where he's back to 4-5 games at that level. Or honestly 96 might not even meet that criteria given how he did in the Finals

So say in the case of LeBron I'm gonna rate 2017 as his 2-way peak and im gonna honestly say from 2009 to 2020 he's putting out around 5 games a series at that level. 2021 I have him officially falling out of his prime. I think he'll be lucky to hit that kind of production in 4 out of 7 games in a series going forward, although he'll still be extremely productive

Heej wrote:Hmm I'd say Started their prime is when they start dominating (or putting out peak level production) In at least 65-70% of the games in a playoff series. Peaks they're outputting that kinda production in 90% of the games (everyone has duds)

So if you're looking at peak level MJ being '91 or '92 I'd say 86-87 MJ could probably approximate a peak MJ game for about half a series. So he might be good for 3 games max at THAT caliber while still having 4 other very good games.

Once you start getting to 89 that equation flips and he's probably peak MJ production in 4-5 games. 91-92 being peak means you're getting that a guaranteed 5-6 games (allowing for a dud here and there) in a series. And then that probably continues until 96 where he's back to 4-5 games at that level. Or honestly 96 might not even meet that criteria given how he did in the Finals

So say in the case of LeBron I'm gonna rate 2017 as his 2-way peak and im gonna honestly say from 2009 to 2020 he's putting out at least 5 games a series at that level. 2021 I have him officially falling out of his prime. I think he'll be lucky to hit that kind of production in 4 out of 7 games in a series going forward, although he'll still be extremely productive

That's an oddly brilliant way of thinking about it

McBubbles wrote:

Heej wrote:Hmm I'd say Started their prime is when they start dominating (or putting out peak level production) In at least 65-70% of the games in a playoff series. Peaks they're outputting that kinda production in 90% of the games (everyone has duds)

So if you're looking at peak level MJ being '91 or '92 I'd say 86-87 MJ could probably approximate a peak MJ game for about half a series. So he might be good for 3 games max at THAT caliber while still having 4 other very good games.

Once you start getting to 89 that equation flips and he's probably peak MJ production in 4-5 games. 91-92 being peak means you're getting that a guaranteed 5-6 games (allowing for a dud here and there) in a series. And then that probably continues until 96 where he's back to 4-5 games at that level. Or honestly 96 might not even meet that criteria given how he did in the Finals

So say in the case of LeBron I'm gonna rate 2017 as his 2-way peak and im gonna honestly say from 2009 to 2020 he's putting out at least 5 games a series at that level. 2021 I have him officially falling out of his prime. I think he'll be lucky to hit that kind of production in 4 out of 7 games in a series going forward, although he'll still be extremely productive

That's an oddly brilliant way of thinking about it

Haha thanks. As I've watched ball more over the years I've come to realize it's more about the consistency of production vs the individual peaks in games here and there.

That's why even tho I think LeBron at his absolute Apex in individual games or stretches of games has played the best basketball we've ever seen for that sample size (2018 Finals Game 1, 2016 G5-7) I certainly appreciate that MJ produces GOAT level games more consistently. Although LeBron has more GOAT level games in aggregate given his total body of work.

Definitely appreciate that you like my reasoning lol. The numbers are arbitrary but I like to think it makes sense when you think about what a players prime really means. Cuz a post prime guy can put out just as good an individual game or half or quarter as any that they've had in their prime. Such as Timmy in G6 2013. First half of that game he was playing close to peak Duncan imo but you know for a fact he was well past his prime then cuz he couldn't do that every game.

SickMother wrote:Definitely varies from player to player, but when looking back at many of the All Time Great careers they normally break down into a couple few different eras of varying length.

Here's how I would chop up some of the ATGs...

LeBron (Age 20-23) 26.8 PER | .561 TS% | .220 WS/48
LeBron (Age 24-29) 30.2 PER | .613 TS% | .290 WS/48
LeBron (Age 30-33) 27.3 PER | .602 TS% | .221 WS/48
LeBron (Age 34-37) 25.4 PER | .593 TS% | .187 WS/48

Michael (Age 21-23) 27.8 PER | .571 TS% | .226 WS/48
Michael (Age 24-29) 30.5 PER | .595 TS% | .292 WS/48
Michael (Age 31-34) 27.1 PER | .556 TS% | .272 WS/48

Kareem (Age 23-25) 29.1 PER | .597 TS% | .330 WS/48
Kareem (Age 26-30) 26.8 PER | .574 TS% | .251 WS/48
Kareem (Age 31-33) 25.4 PER | .622 TS% | .225 WS/48
Kareem (Age 34-38) 22.8 PER | .613 TS% | .192 WS/48

Wilt (Age 23-24) 27.9 PER | .506 TS% | .242 WS/48
Wilt (Age 25-27) 31.7 PER | .547 TS% | .291 WS/48
Wilt (Age 28-31) 27.0 PER | .556 TS% | .260 WS/48
Wilt (Age 32-36) 20.2 PER | .596 TS% | .206 WS/48

Magic (Age 21-26) 23.4 PER | .609 TS% | .211 WS/48
Magic (Age 27-31) 25.8 PER | .611 TS% | .251 WS/48

Larry (Age 25-27) 23.7 PER | .557 TS% | .215 WS/48
Larry (Age 28-31) 26.6 PER | .596 TS% | .242 WS/48

Shaq (Age 21-25) 28.0 PER | .584 TS% | .220 WS/48
Shaq (Age 26-30) 30.1 PER | .585 TS% | .260 WS/48

Admiral (Age 24-26) 27.1 PER | .604 TS% | .255 WS/48
Admiral (Age 28-30) 29.8 PER | .589 TS% | .286 WS/48
Admiral (Age 31-35) 25.4 PER | .569 TS% | .252 WS/48

Duncan (Age 21-24) 23.6 PER | .553 TS% | .205 WS/48
Duncan (Age 25-28) 27.0 PER | .556 TS% | .250 WS/48
Duncan (Age 29-33) 24.5 PER | .541 TS% | .205 WS/48

Durant (Age 21-23) 25.3 PER | .601 TS% | .217 WS/48
Durant (Age 24-28) 28.5 PER | .640 TS% | .282 WS/48
Durant (Age 29-33) 24.5 PER | .638 TS% | .207 WS/48

Giannis (Age 22-23) 26.7 PER | .599 TS% | .209 WS/48
Giannis (Age 24-27) 31.0 PER | .629 TS% | .276 WS/48

Jokic (Age 21-24) 25.5 PER | .607 TS% | .217 WS/48
Jokic (Age 25-26) 31.6 PER | .648 TS% | .298 WS/48

this goes along with what i've always felt in terms of generalizing across the sport. a dude's prime is about 24-30. some guys start a tad earlier, some go a tad later, some guys might last 8 years, some might last 4 years. but 24-30 tends to be the sweet spot in terms of combining the athletic prime with the developmental/skill level prime.

SeattleJazzFan wrote:this goes along with what i've always felt in terms of generalizing across the sport. a dude's prime is about 24-30. some guys start a tad earlier, some go a tad later, some guys might last 8 years, some might last 4 years. but 24-30 tends to be the sweet spot in terms of combining the athletic prime with the developmental/skill level prime.

Agreed. As I was going through the individual player pages & then looking at when each player's prime years were, I noticed the same general pattern you mentioned.

Sliced up a few more players' careers that are maybe just a little further down that ATG list than the first group & here's how they shook out...

Barkley (Age 23-27): 27.1 PER | .655 TS% | .249 WS/48
Barkley (Age 28-35): 24.0 PER | .581 TS% | .208 WS/48

Mailman (Age 25-29): 25.6 PER | .605 TS% | .236 WS/48
Mailman (Age 30-32): 24.6 PER | .571 TS% | .213 WS/48
Mailman (Age 33-36): 27.6 PER | .590 TS% | .257 WS/48

Stockton (Age 25-27): 23.3 PER | .624 TS% | .237 WS/48
Stockton (Age 28-31): 22.5 PER | .596 TS% | .206 WS/48
Stockton (Age 32-34): 22.4 PER | .650 TS% | .224 WS/48
Stockton (Age 35-40): 21.9 PER | .597 TS% | .208 WS/48

ChrisPaul (Age 22-23): 29.1 PER | .588 TS% | .288 WS/48
ChrisPaul (Age 24-25): 23.7 PER | .580 TS% | .221 WS/48
ChrisPaul (Age 26-32): 26.1 PER | .591 TS% | .270 WS/48
ChrisPaul (Age 33-36): 21.0 PER | .589 TS% | .195 WS/48

Steph (Age 23-25): 22.5 PER | .600 TS% | .196 WS/48
Steph (Age 26-29): 28.1 PER | .650 TS% | .277 WS/48
Steph (Age 30-33): 24.1 PER | .631 TS% | .192 WS/48

Oscar (Age 22-24): 25.5 PER | .565 TS% | .218 WS/48
Oscar (Age 25-29): 26.0 PER | .574 TS% | .242 WS/48
Oscar (Age 30-32): 21.0 PER | .574 TS% | .185 WS/48

Jerry (Age 25-27): 24.6 PER | .569 TS% | .250 WS/48
Jerry (Age 28-31): 23.3 PER | .568 TS% | .225 WS/48
Jerry (Age 32-34): 23.3 PER | .550 TS% | .213 WS/48

Dirk (Age 22-26): 24.2 PER | .584 TS% | .227 WS/48
Dirk (Age 27-28): 27.8 PER | .596 TS% | .277 WS/48
Dirk (Age 29-32): 23.5 PER | .583 TS% | .199 WS/48

Garnett (Age 23-25): 23.5 PER | .537 TS% | .181 WS/48
Garnett (Age 26-31): 26.8 PER | .563 TS% | .236 WS/48
Garnett (Age 32-35): 20.4 PER | .565 TS% | .184 WS/48

Hakeem (Age 23-29): 24.1 PER | .552 TS% | .186 WS/48
Hakeem (Age 30-32): 26.2 PER | .568 TS% | .209 WS/48
Hakeem (Age 33-36): 23.3 PER | .554 TS% | .158 WS/48

Doctor J (Age 23-25): 26.8 PER | .565 TS% | .247 WS/48
Doctor J (Age 26-28): 20.9 PER | .548 TS% | .168 WS/48
Doctor J (Age 29-33): 24.5 PER | .573 TS% | .214 WS/48

Wade (Age 24-28): 27.5 PER | .570 TS% | .206 WS/48
Wade (Age 29-32): 24.5 PER | .575 TS% | .199 WS/48

Kobe (Age 21-26): 23.9 PER | .551 TS% | .194 WS/48
Kobe (Age 27-30): 25.7 PER | .569 TS% | .209 WS/48

Kawhi (Age 22-23): 20.7 PER | .582 TS% | .199 WS/48
Kawhi (Age 24-25): 26.8 PER | .613 TS% | .270 WS/48
Kawhi (Age 27-29): 26.2 PER | .605 TS% | .229 WS/48