Does Loyola (Chi) have the worst draft record in history?

[wojoaderge]

Their 3 first round picks are commonly though to be worst draft selections of all time for the 3 franchises who selected them

[penbeast0]

Tried looking up the players but other than LaRue Martin, the others were mid to late rounders Alfredrick Hughes at 14, and Larry Knight at 20. All 3 were flops but calling Hughes and Knight the worst selections of all time for their franchises is a major reach.

[wojoaderge]

Tried looking up the players but other than LaRue Martin, the others were mid to late rounders Alfredrick Hughes at 14, and Larry Knight at 20. All 3 were flops but calling Hughes and Knight the worst selections of all time for their franchises is a major reach.

Who were worse?

[trex_8063]

I think this question has to be looked at in light of WHAT pick they were (e.g. a guy who goes 50th in the draft and is a NBA bust is not really a surprise, or otherwise underachieving expectation; if a guy is drafted top 5 and is a total scrub.....that's an entirely different story).

I'd have to look things up, but without investigating I want to suggest that John Stockton is the ONLY thing preventing Gonzaga from having a worse draft profile.....

Didn't Adam Morrison go like 4th in the draft [total scrub/bust at the NBA level].
I was really skeptical about all the hype on Jalen Suggs when I saw him in the NCAA tournament last year.......so far I am being proven right: he's a turnover-machine who is shooting -10% rTS. Although it's early days still, there's little question he's been a total bust so far [would need to improve dramatically just to become an average NBA player (which would still be far off what you hope for with a #5 pick)].

I feel like I may be forgetting one other Gonzaga stinker. Is Ronny Turiaf the 2nd-best NBA career to come out of Gonzaga? Again, I haven't looked things up, so I could be completely wrong.

[penbeast0]

I am willing to bet money that each franchise has at least one draft choice (probably several) drafted higher that also played 1 season or less as a pro. You could look it up if you are interested. Now LaRue Martin, a #1 pick that flopped, that's almost certainly Portland's worst. Maybe NBA worst though there's always Anthony Bennett.

[wojoaderge]

I am willing to bet money that each franchise has at least one draft choice (probably several) drafted higher that also played 1 season or less as a pro.

Seriously? Because you'd be wrong

[penbeast0]

I am willing to bet money that each franchise has at least one draft choice (probably several) drafted higher that also played 1 season or less as a pro.

Seriously? Because you'd be wrong

Ok, if you did the research I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. Surprised though.

[getjeffrey]

Trolls.

[wojoaderge]

Trolls.

No, Ramblers

[Dr Positivity]

Syracuse has Bing and Melo but otherwise a lot of duds like Flynn, Wes Johnson, MCW, Waiters, etc., and disappointment for his talent in Coleman. Their 4th-10th most played minutes in history are Danny Schayes, Rony Seikaly, Sherman Douglas, Billy Owens, Jerami Grant, Wes Johnson and Louis Orr.

[Dr Positivity]

I feel like I may be forgetting one other Gonzaga stinker. Is Ronny Turiaf the 2nd-best NBA career to come out of Gonzaga? Again, I haven't looked things up, so I could be completely wrong.

Domantas went to Gonzaga. Other than that Olynyk, and Brandon Clarke per minute stats are pretty solid.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/colleges.cgi?college=gonzaga

[SeattleJazzFan]

byu has a pretty dismal track record. look up their first rounders.

mike smith at #13 to boston in '89, Rafael Araujo to Toronto in the lottery, Jimmer to Sacto in the lottery, Shawn Bradley at #2 overall to Philly. Danny Ainge is the only guy who has panned out - but those guys i mentioned above were pretty bigtime busts (and i say all this as an avid byu fan).

[Owly]

byu has a pretty dismal track record. look up their first rounders.

mike smith at #13 to boston in '89, Rafael Araujo to Toronto in the lottery, Jimmer to Sacto in the lottery, Shawn Bradley at #2 overall to Philly. Danny Ainge is the only guy who has panned out - but those guys i mentioned above were pretty bigtime busts (and i say all this as an avid byu fan).

Disagree on Bradley. He looked awkward, got dunked on etc, wasn't a scorer.

But for instance the '97-'14 RAPM has him as the clear rate and value over average winner in that time frame (misses Penny's apex of course). https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2, https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm

1) Webber 0.88 (185th), 501.1 (94th)
2) Bradley 2.47 (49th), 667.9 (76th)
3) Hardaway 0.62 (227th), 190.5 (175th)
(then Mashburn, Rider, Cheaney all stuck around neutral, Bakers and Rogers too - Hurley more clearly negative. Then Hunter a little negative, Houston more clearly negative).

Bradley has evidence of impact even in his rookie year when he was pretty box-production awful as a rookie (8.2 on off and 76ers clearly worse when he was injured).

He has his issues (low minutes in Dallas, playoff regressions - especially if you think they are more than noise). But Bradley has a case as pretty wildly underrated.

[Owly]

I am willing to bet money that each franchise has at least one draft choice (probably several) drafted higher that also played 1 season or less as a pro.

Seriously? Because you'd be wrong

Ok, if you did the research I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. Surprised though.

Higher than what? (14? 20?)

In any case in the guaranteed multi-year, relatively cheap contract era it's hard to get cut by year one as a pro (very little benefit for the aforementioned reasons).

[SeattleJazzFan]

byu has a pretty dismal track record. look up their first rounders.

mike smith at #13 to boston in '89, Rafael Araujo to Toronto in the lottery, Jimmer to Sacto in the lottery, Shawn Bradley at #2 overall to Philly. Danny Ainge is the only guy who has panned out - but those guys i mentioned above were pretty bigtime busts (and i say all this as an avid byu fan).

Disagree on Bradley. He looked awkward, got dunked on etc, wasn't a scorer.

But for instance the '97-'14 RAPM has him as the clear rate and value over average winner in that time frame (misses Penny's apex of course). https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2, https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm

1) Webber 0.88 (185th), 501.1 (94th)
2) Bradley 2.47 (49th), 667.9 (76th)
3) Hardaway 0.62 (227th), 190.5 (175th)
(then Mashburn, Rider, Cheaney all stuck around neutral, Bakers and Rogers too - Hurley more clearly negative. Then Hunter a little negative, Houston more clearly negative).

Bradley has evidence of impact even in his rookie year when he was pretty box-production awful as a rookie (8.2 on off and 76ers clearly worse when he was injured).

He has his issues (low minutes in Dallas, playoff regressions - especially if you think they are more than noise). But Bradley has a case as pretty wildly underrated.

i would agree that his career is underrated, but for a #2 overall pick, he was a bust.

[penbeast0]

Seriously? Because you'd be wrong

Ok, if you did the research I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. Surprised though.

Higher than what? (14? 20?)

In any case in the guaranteed multi-year, relatively cheap contract era it's hard to get cut by year one as a pro (very little benefit for the aforementioned reasons).

Players drafted at a choice lower than the #14 and the #20 picks in the draft (does not have to be recent) who did not play longer than 1 year as a pro (which is how long Alfredrick Hughes lasted, the other guy never played in the NBA regular season though he was a CBA All-Star a couple of times.

[Owly]

byu has a pretty dismal track record. look up their first rounders.

mike smith at #13 to boston in '89, Rafael Araujo to Toronto in the lottery, Jimmer to Sacto in the lottery, Shawn Bradley at #2 overall to Philly. Danny Ainge is the only guy who has panned out - but those guys i mentioned above were pretty bigtime busts (and i say all this as an avid byu fan).

Disagree on Bradley. He looked awkward, got dunked on etc, wasn't a scorer.

But for instance the '97-'14 RAPM has him as the clear rate and value over average winner in that time frame (misses Penny's apex of course). https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2, https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm

1) Webber 0.88 (185th), 501.1 (94th)
2) Bradley 2.47 (49th), 667.9 (76th)
3) Hardaway 0.62 (227th), 190.5 (175th)
(then Mashburn, Rider, Cheaney all stuck around neutral, Bakers and Rogers too - Hurley more clearly negative. Then Hunter a little negative, Houston more clearly negative).

Bradley has evidence of impact even in his rookie year when he was pretty box-production awful as a rookie (8.2 on off and 76ers clearly worse when he was injured).

He has his issues (low minutes in Dallas, playoff regressions - especially if you think they are more than noise). But Bradley has a case as pretty wildly underrated.

i would agree that his career is underrated, but for a #2 overall pick, he was a bust.

I think I'd have to know more what you mean.

What do you mean by bust (is it about performance versus expectations, is it about an absolute level of performance, to what extent do you take account of other options in the draft [is it possible to have a draft full of busts]. What do you mean by "for a #2 overall pick" ... are we asking whether a team would trade a lot to move him for an opportunity to get an average number two pick? To what extent does context matter.

If assessing within '93, leaving aside Hardaway, granting the injuries (and the potential and the peak), the data above suggests he was a better option than anyone else on the board in the top 11 (and indeed beyond, though at 24 [not in contention for the selection at 2] Cassell offers what I think will be the second best RAPM and RAPM above average for that span in the class with higher productivity). Would whoever were taken at 2 (or - and it might change, though for a long while not too long before this year 3rd picks were typically outperforming 2nd picks - 3rd pick if Hardaway taken second) been a bust.

People's definitions will differ:
Some had or gave the impression of very high expectations of Bradley. If that's a factor that will hurt.
Per the intial post playstyle and image might have been more harmful (dunked on, not a scorer, slightly goofy image, tall, white).
Personally, I think I would want a guy to be bad - unable to be remotely useful in a playoff team's rotation or perhaps even heading [or deserving] to be quickly out of the league or have many very clearly better players in the following picks to call the player or pick a bust. To me neither of these describe Bradley, though given the scoring-centric thinking of the time I can imagine people might have thought the latter (seeing Rider and Mashburn as stars).

This post has focused on one version of one metric. Others mileage may differ.

[DQuinn1575]

Seems kind of silly to talk about their draft record when they havent had a player drafted since 1987.

[wojoaderge]

Seems kind of silly to talk about their draft record when they havent had a player drafted since 1987.

Who do you think it is then?

[Owly]

Ok, if you did the research I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. Surprised though.

Higher than what? (14? 20?)

In any case in the guaranteed multi-year, relatively cheap contract era it's hard to get cut by year one as a pro (very little benefit for the aforementioned reasons).

Players drafted at a choice lower than the #14 and the #20 picks in the draft (does not have to be recent) who did not play longer than 1 year as a pro (which is how long Alfredrick Hughes lasted, the other guy never played in the NBA regular season though he was a CBA All-Star a couple of times.

Yeah just wanted to clarify because the allusion seemed a bit vague but seemed to be back to 14 or 20.

As I say in the modern era there's little benefit to eating the money after one year. So if they sign (and very few don't - some Euros I guess) it really doesn't make much sense to cut. And whatever lineage you draw (actual franchise lineage: Pelicans are the original Hornets; or official: Bobcats inherit Hornets history) there's a team starting in the 2000s that will kill your "each franchise ... 1 season or fewer". Suspect, given how odd it is to cut bait that early that Raptors and Grizz (I would imagine amongst several others) would too.

I would say that on the broader initial point, given the low typical expected value at the slots there will likely be worse selections in franchises history in terms of value difference versus plausible alternatives. Not that there aren't reasonably plausible fairly high end alternate outcomes (Dumars, Macy) but most of the next 5 picks aren't guys substantially above replacement level (maybe just Sly Williams).

As far as thread title question I suppose it depends on what you mean by the question. It's certainly a bad record. Is it worse not to have anyone drafted. If not, then at what point is there a sufficient sample? Is it worse to have a player hang around at arguably below replacement level (e.g. Olowokandi) or just to flame out etc.