Robinson and Duncan drafted in successive years

migya · Post #1 » by **migya** » Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:39 pm

Had Robinson been drafted in 1996 at age 22 and got injured sort of like he did in reality in 97 and the Spurs draft Duncan in 97, as in real life, how many championships do they win together in their careers?

Everything pretty much the same; Popovich coach, Bowen, Parker and Ginobili after Avery, Elliott and Elle leave etc.

How do both look and rate alltime? Are both great, like top 15/20 or does one drop dramatically?

That's from Jordan's last Bulls season, through the Lakers threepeat time, Lebron and Wade Heat, all the way to say to 2011 for Robinson and 2012 for Duncan.

How much would that change the nba during and after that time?

sp6r=underrated · Post #2 » by **sp6r=underrated** » Wed Mar 16, 2022 3:50 pm

The post-season is a crap-shoot. I think even if they were drafted as is there are scenarios were they win no titles with the consequent hits to theirs reps. Scenarios were they win 3-4 and the doubts many still hold against them as truly elite are gone.

I can't see them winning in 98 not because I believe in the myth the Bulls were unbeatable. Candidly I think Utah was probably the better team that year and if the refs knew the shot clock they win that series. I see a couple big limitations:

1. Twin Tower lineups are notoriously difficult for bigs to operate. These are two of the smartest and most selfless bigs and still took time to figure out their interior passing.
2. Pop was still inexperienced and went with a very stupid even for then lineup of Robinson-Duncan-Perdue. That puts a big cap on them. Frankly I think they'd have a much easier time with Chicago than Utah and Chicago was never easy.

01 is also out. I think the 01 lakers are pretty overrated. Everyone, myself included overvalues the post-season. They just played way over their head for a significant amount of time. I doubt they could have duplicated it. But if we're assuming they play that way again the Spurs can't beat em.

1999/2000/2002: If Duncan/Robinson are healthy unlike the real 2000/2002 were both got injured I consider them the clear but not overwhelming favorites. Same with 2003 but their edge is slightly more.

migya · Post #3 » by **migya** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:13 am

Going by how both performed right from the start its likely the win more than five. Can't see any team in the 2000s beating them. Shaq's Lakers against young and in prime twin towers looks doubtful. Robinson was always tough for Shaq to defend before 98.

Dick Tate · Post #4 » by **Dick Tate** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:02 pm

Back in the day when I was running a fantasy league with an Excel file, I had a team with the Admiral and Duncan (Rookie). I cruised to victory that season.

Dr Positivity · Post #5 » by **Dr Positivity** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:14 pm

I'll say Robinson is drafted in 95 and does two years in the Navy for his and Duncan's first seasons being 98.

98 - Bulls over Jazz finals again. Rookie Robinson is arguably worse than 98 so no advantage here.
99 - Spurs win title, although you could argue less experienced Robinson is a disadvantage here, not sure who the competition is supposed to be for them
00 - I'd have taken healthy Spurs, but Duncan injury costs them this one. Lakers win in same finals.
01 - Robinson is still one year away from his peak starting and Lakers were on a roll this year, they repeat.
02 - 94 Robinson and 02 Duncan is frightening, and Lakers almost lost to Kings, so they stop the Lakers run.
03 - 95 Robinson and 03 Duncan and a real life title supporting cast makes this an easy repeat for the Spurs.
04 - Lakers load up with Payton and Malone to beat the Spurs dynasty, but the fit isn't enough and Spurs beat them, and then overcome a feisty Pistons who leave heartbroken like 88 finals.
05 - Robinson is injured and the Spurs are supposed to have no chance, but they make the finals again thanks to improvement of players like TP/Manu, but the Pistons who are hungrier than in real life get their revenge.
06 - Robinson returns and is still playing at elite level (98) which combined with these versions of Duncan/Parker/Manu makes them unstoppable as they beat Mavs and Heat.
07 - Robinson declines a bit, but combined with Parker/Manu/Duncan and Suns suspension, not much doubt here for another Spurs title.
08 - Spurs beat the powered up Lakers to make the finals once more to set up a matchup with KG, but Celtics want it more and overcome them.
09 - The Spurs have played an insane amount of playoff games at this point, so the Kobe/Pau Lakers get one over on them and win this title
10 - The Spurs have another good season, but with an aging double center frontcourt get caught by the spread offense of the Suns and lose
11 - The Spurs contend again, but end up in a matchup with the Thunder who run them off the court athletically

There is no 12-14 title, the Spurs are dead physically by the end of 2010s after playing in the finals nearly every year and Manu and Duncan are already washed by 2014

Overall - 6 titles (99, 02, 03, 04, 06, 07), plus 2 other finals (05, 08) to make one of one of the most dominant stretches of all time with 5 titles in 6 years and the only miss due to Robinson injury, and 7 finals in a row. The 2000s Spurs dynasty becomes the equivalent of the 90s Bulls.

baldur · Post #6 » by **baldur** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:15 pm

not more than 1 or 2. duncan already got 5 chips. don't expect a double digit. last it happened was in the 60s.

migya · Post #7 » by **migya** » Sat Mar 19, 2022 7:50 am

Dr Positivity wrote:I'll say Robinson is drafted in 95 and does two years in the Navy for his and Duncan's first seasons being 98.

98 - Bulls over Jazz finals again. Rookie Robinson is arguably worse than 98 so no advantage here.
99 - Spurs win title, although you could argue less experienced Robinson is a disadvantage here, not sure who the competition is supposed to be for them
00 - I'd have taken healthy Spurs, but Duncan injury costs them this one. Lakers win in same finals.
01 - Robinson is still one year away from his peak starting and Lakers were on a roll this year, they repeat.
02 - 94 Robinson and 02 Duncan is frightening, and Lakers almost lost to Kings, so they stop the Lakers run.
03 - 95 Robinson and 03 Duncan and a real life title supporting cast makes this an easy repeat for the Spurs.
04 - Lakers load up with Payton and Malone to beat the Spurs dynasty, but the fit isn't enough and Spurs beat them, and then overcome a feisty Pistons who leave heartbroken like 88 finals.
05 - Robinson is injured and the Spurs are supposed to have no chance, but they make the finals again thanks to improvement of players like TP/Manu, but the Pistons who are hungrier than in real life get their revenge.
06 - Robinson returns and is still playing at elite level (98) which combined with these versions of Duncan/Parker/Manu makes them unstoppable as they beat Mavs and Heat.
07 - Robinson declines a bit, but combined with Parker/Manu/Duncan and Suns suspension, not much doubt here for another Spurs title.
08 - Spurs beat the powered up Lakers to make the finals once more to set up a matchup with KG, but Celtics want it more and overcome them.
09 - The Spurs have played an insane amount of playoff games at this point, so the Kobe/Pau Lakers get one over on them and win this title
10 - The Spurs have another good season, but with an aging double center frontcourt get caught by the spread offense of the Suns and lose
11 - The Spurs contend again, but end up in a matchup with the Thunder who run them off the court athletically

There is no 12-14 title, the Spurs are dead physically by the end of 2010s after playing in the finals nearly every year and Manu and Duncan are already washed by 2014

Overall - 6 titles (99, 02, 03, 04, 06, 07), plus 2 other finals (05, 08) to make one of one of the most dominant stretches of all time with 5 titles in 6 years and the only miss due to Robinson injury, and 7 finals in a row. The 2000s Spurs dynasty becomes the equivalent of the 90s Bulls.

Robinson was great right from the start and had already won the dpoy while finishing third in mvp in 92, despite missing the last month, in 01 I can't see the Spurs losing to the Lakers. Shaq couldn't stop Robinson as much as vice versa, he'd probably foul out some of the games in a series.

I can't remember a more all-around, dominant and better fitting big duo than Robinson and Duncan. 98 showed how both, even Duncan as a rookie, could carry a team to being one of the best.

Stan · Post #8 » by **Stan** » Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm

Putting any option above 6 titles is ridiculous lol

migya · Post #9 » by **migya** » Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:24 pm

Stan wrote:Putting any option above 6 titles is ridiculous lol

Why?

Or certainly would be possible with the sauces they had with old Robinson. Prime Robinson is top 10 alltime level.

DoItALL9 · Post #10 » by **DoItALL9** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:48 am

Is David Robinson willing to take pay cuts in his prime?

Is he still coming after having served time in the military?

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Post #11 » by **-Sammy-** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 6:23 am

I voted 5-6, though six+ is a real possibility. The Spurs won two with a post-prime Robinson and three without; a peak/prime Rob for the '00s makes them makes them favorites or near-favorites every year, and Pop and Duncan probably influence a more competitive/driven mentality in Rob than he had in reality (his only weakness as a player, in my opinion).

Of course, this is assuming that the team could make the money work and that all the other players who've come through still would; if so, who's stopping a Rob/Tim/Parker/Gino/Bowen core with nice pieces like Finley, Horry, Jackson, Barry, Hill, etc., floating through from year to year?

Post #12 » by **penbeast0** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm

I keep wanting to make a joke about all the 3 point shooting when you draft Duncan Robinson twice in two successive years but probably no championships.

Owly · Post #13 » by **Owly** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:27 pm

DoItALL9 wrote:Is David Robinson willing to take pay cuts in his prime?

Is he still coming after having served time in the military?

On the latter question, per OP

migya wrote:Had Robinson been drafted in 1996 at age 22

So no he's coming out as a senior straight to the NBA.

Now OP does also posit he gets the 96-97 injury still ... I would guess the intent is that we don't read this as affecting he from his IRL career trajectory.

I'd argue the former question is less relevant than IRL. It'd still be great if any great player wants to stay with you and play for less than they can get and less than they "deserve". But if he's drafted in 1996 he's coming in the year where the rookie scale is in and then Garnett (supposedly) and the lockout lead to individual maxes (off the top of my head).

I suppose one could then say that early on SA have some money to play with, but OP's framing doesn't really allow for this

migya wrote:Everything pretty much the same; Popovich coach, Bowen, Parker and Ginobili after Avery, Elliott and Elle leave etc.

G35 · Post #14 » by **G35** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:35 pm

DoItALL9 wrote:Is David Robinson willing to take pay cuts in his prime?

Is he still coming after having served time in the military?

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app

If he was willing to lose 2-3 years of his best physical years to serve his country, I think he would be willing to work it out with the Spurs. The reason why the Spurs were able to contend for so long is they never had major contract disputes like a Shaq, James Harden situation. IIRC I read somewhere that the Spurs never went over the cap until I think Kawhi came along.....

Owly · Post #15 » by **Owly** » Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:20 pm

G35 wrote:
DoItALL9 wrote:Is David Robinson willing to take pay cuts in his prime?

Is he still coming after having served time in the military?

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app

If he was willing to lose 2-3 years of his best physical years to serve his country, I think he would be willing to work it out with the Spurs. The reason why the Spurs were able to contend for so long is they never had major contract disputes like a Shaq, James Harden situation. IIRC I read somewhere that the Spurs never went over the cap until I think Kawhi came along.....

I will say here my understanding is that he didn't choose to lose those years as such.

Robinson seemingly hoped/attempted to delay service until after his career.

My understanding is that he could have left the Naval Academy after his sophomore year without any obligation. At this point he:
a) could have been pretty confident of a pro basketball career (and as much is stated in "the Force" by Jim Savage where after playing for the US he became confident he could play in the pros and this became his primary goal)
b) would not have known for certain he would be forced to do his service straight away, that there would be no special dispensation
c) would presumably have known that the above scenario or something like it was at least possible.

Now the above is somewhat woolly because we don't know what was said in private. Napoleon McCallum had been allowed to play in the NFL whilst serving in 1986. James Webb is credited with reversing this policy.

cf/sources
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-05-24-sp-2544-story.html
The Force by Jim Savage (1992)

It's a complex picture.