Chet Holmgren

[jalengreen]

Not sure how many college basketball fans there are here, but what do y'all think about Chet as an NBA prospect? Any player comparisons come to mind? He's viewed as a generational defensive talent by some analysts and had a great defensive showing today.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I'm a believer. Not quite Durant but Porzingis with better instincts/a better head on his shoulders. I think he'll be a star and would take him #1 if I was a GM

[NW BBALL]

As a diehard Bulldog fan but whose basketball interests otherwise lie in the NBA, I would have some serious reservations with taking Chet as the number one pick. He is very skilled and despite all that has been made about his shooting and ball handling, his defense has been most impactful for Gonzaga. He not only has length but great shot blocking instincts and timing. But the concerns about his weight and frame are legitimate. For someone who likes to play down low, he gets pushed around a lot. And despite his offensive skillset, he can be much too passive. Granted, I really don’t think Mark Few knows how to effectively utilize him. But Chet has a tendency to disappear on offense more than he should.

Now if this were the 80s or 90s and he had several more years to play and develop while playing against college opponents, I think he could become a legitimate number one pick. But from what I have seen from him this year, I worry about him going as a possible number one draft pick. The pressure and scrutiny associated with it for both the player and franchise are too great. The leap in talent and competition is so much greater from the NCAA to NBA, much more so from HS to the NCAA in my opinion. Number one picks are supposed to make immediate impacts and serve as building blocks for struggling franchises. Right now, I think Chet would fail to do that and the pressure would hinder the development of a very special and talented young player.

[jasonxxx102]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

[hype_2004]

Low end taller Chris Boucher, high end Anorexic version of Rudy Gobert with range.

[SNPA]

If the Kings pick first he’s a number one pick. If the Kings don’t pick first he sucks, and is to skinny, and should not be picked (until the Kings pick). All GM’s should read this post.

[Johnny Firpo]

I would take him with the Nr.1 pick, highest upside out of any player in this draft, imo. Even if he doesn't reach that, he's still going to be an excellent NBA player, and he is not too tall for me to have any reservations about drafting him. He probably stopped growing recently, they should be able to put some muscle on him going forward.

[Prokorov]

Not sure how many college basketball fans there are here, but what do y'all think about Chet as an NBA prospect? Any player comparisons come to mind? He's viewed as a generational defensive talent by some analysts and had a great defensive showing today.

People keep telling me he is the #1 pick...

i saw hm in AAU, his teams did well, his numbers were solid, to me he looked like an avg player whose height inflated things

then i saw him in the Fiba U18. again they won, he was MVP, at no point did i see someone i thought we be an avg pro, let alone difference maker

I watched about 15 gonzaga games plus the tournament. they have done well. his stats look good. again, i see someone who i believe will struggle to be an avg player in the NBA.

i could obviously be wrong, but ive watch a ton of this kid. more then any prospect ive ever followed besides kidd gilchrist and kyrie. and i just dont get the hype. obvious any KD type comparison are unfair to him. but he seems weak, slow, and unathletic. he could add some bulk/strengh, but i dont see it as enough. i dont think his wingspan/athleticism combo or foot speed to switch makes him a better then avg NBA defender. and early on i can see him getting bullied by much shorter players.

His handles are good for a 7 foot 19 year old... but its not the handles/quickness combo we saw with KD who could stop on a dime and had an elite first step. its more he can just dribble fancy... which is helpful, but i dont see him crossing up pros to get ot the rim from the perimeter

im sure im wrong to a degree, but ive tried to see the high ceiling and still dont

[Prokorov]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

I dont really love the porzingas comparisons... because kristaps was a legit 7'3" coming in. Chet is probably just over 7-foot. Kristaps was thin coming in... but chet is still even thinner. Kristaps was no charles oakley, but he seems a bit less hesitant to run from contact.

[Cavsfansince84]

I'm guessing somewhere between semi bust and all star. Unless he can be a 40+% guy from 3. The problem is how quickly people expect top 3 picks to make an impact. Chet probably will need 3-4 years before he's adding much if he comes out this year.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

How do you figure that? His stats are insanely impressive

Anthony Davis: 14.2ppg (65.4 TS%), 10.3rpg, 1.3apg, 4.7bpg and 1.4spg over 32mpg
Chet Holmgren: 14.2ppg (69.5 TS%), 9.8rpg, 1.9apg, 3.7bpg and 0.8spg over 27mpg

If he played the extra 5 minutes AD got, he would lead in pts/rbs/asts and efficiency. He has also demonstrated 3pt range that AD didn't really show in college. Lastly, he's sharing the court with an established volume post scorer in Timme which caps his numbers a bit.

[reanimator]

I envision a highly efficient connector player on offense who will have a game every now and then that makes you go "what if." I just don't think he has the mindset nor handle to volume score. I do like his touch out of the post and the ability to put him anywhere on the court makes him highly malleable.

His rim protection is very real both as a help defender and one on one in the post. You can't bully him with brute strength. Now on the glass, he can be moved around. I think his ultimate upside from good starting PF/C to elite will come down to can he switch? I'm dubious.

[JulesWinnfield]

I love his talent but the body is always going to concern me. He is beyond painfully thin, and in addition to that he has a little hunchback thing going on and I don’t know what to make of it. It’s like he has terrible posture, something id never even think to mention about a prospect or any player for that matter

[eminence]

Yeah, he's a great looking prospect. I'd be taking him #1, Jabari my #2.

Generational on defense? I'd guess not quite, but he looks promising on that end.

Kind of a more offensively skilled Mobley with a worse frame (obviously unsure if his defensive acumen will translate quite as well, but it's looked comparable at the college level). The # of legit 7 footers with his skill level may be 0, I don't really see the Porzingis comp, KP never moved with his fluidity, had his handle, or had Chet's physicality (he's scrawny, but he's plenty willing to scrap).

[jasonxxx102]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

How do you figure that? His stats are insanely impressive

Anthony Davis: 14.2ppg (65.4 TS%), 10.3rpg, 1.3apg, 4.7bpg and 1.4spg over 32mpg
Chet Holmgren: 14.2ppg (69.5 TS%), 9.8rpg, 1.9apg, 3.7bpg and 0.8spg over 27mpg

If he played the extra 5 minutes AD got, he would lead in pts/rbs/asts and efficiency. He has also demonstrated 3pt range that AD didn't really show in college. Lastly, he's sharing the court with an established volume post scorer in Timme which caps his numbers a bit.

I don't really look at box scores to be completely honest. He's nothing like AD so that's not a very good comparison. The frame is a huge deal. AD was what, 6'10 230 coming out? You can add muscle to a frame like that. Holmgren is listed at 190 LOL probably more like 180, honestly and at 7'1 or whatever he is, he's not adding any significant mass to that frame.

Gonzaga has had a cupcake schedule and Holmgren struggled against teams with post defenders taller than 6'7. He might have good shot blocking instincts but his lateral foot speed is lacking if you project forward to the NBA. His rebounding box numbers look fine on the surface but when you really dig into them and watch him against teams with real talent he doesn't really look like a strong rebounder either.

Go back and look at all his 15+ rebound games. They're all against 6'8-6'9 centers, not tough to grab rebounds when you're the tallest player on the floor by 5 inches.

Like another poster said, if the 3pt shot isn't 40%+ he's going to be an NBA flop. I don't even know if the 3 is going to translate either. FT% correlates very nicely to projecting 3pt shooting in the NBA and 74% ain't gonna cut it. I think the baseline number is 80%?

[The-Power]

I see the appeal but I don't quite think he's deserving of the hype he got in HS. I'd currently have him 3rd on my big board (behind Ivey and Jabari) but this draft class also feels quite underwhelming at the top.

I like his attitude, I like his defensive instincts and obviously you like the length, and his combination of being a decent shooter, passer and finisher around the rim make him an easy fit on offense. So there are a lot of positives.

But the frame is a real concern, he gets pushed around with ease and he doesn't have the type of frame that should fill out well. He's awesome as a help defender but in space or against more physical players around the rim? I have some concerns, and what does that mean for position? And on offense, he's really skilled for his size – but I still don't see how you could or why you would try to build a good offense around him. I think he's an easy fit and makes his teams better, but not in a primary role. The ‘for his size’ part is important because he still doesn't have an offensive skill that really stands out compared to the better NBA players at his position.

So I think you have to take him early on just because if he hits, he could really be a great player and even if he doesn't, there's still a path for him to being a solid NBA starter. But the concerns are sufficient for me to clearly not have him as a top-tier prospect compared to the AD's and Luka's of the world – and even in this draft, I don't think I'd feel comfortable taking him #1.

[RCM88x]

A year ago I probably would have been of a completely different opinion but I think his true position has got to be the 4.

If he can develop a Draymond like offensive game but with a little more scoring via his shooting ability I think that would be the ideal role for him. Obviously we've seen limitations to that style of play in different situations but perhaps his shooting ability would be able to develop enough to where it would be more consistent and allow him to get the rim a bit more. I just imagine him being the roll man and swinging passes to the corner or tossing the ball up for a floater or even as a passer for cutters. His ball handling might be just good enough to where he can really develop from that spot on the court.

Defensively, yeah, hes never gonna be able to go toe to toe with the likes of Embiid or Steven Adams from a physicality standpoint. He will really have to leverage his length and team help defense to be impactful on that end but I do think that his length and instincts are good enough to be a solid rim protector.

Worst case scenario for him is a team trying to fit him into the Porzingus or stretch-5 role which I just don't think suits his play style or abilities. AD maybe seems like another comparison but I think Chet's IQ and feel for the game is just so much better, especially offensively, but you obviously have the physical limitations compared to a guy like that.

Really don't know much about the other prospects in the draft to say if I like him first overall or not.

[RCM88x]

I love his talent but the body is always going to concern me. He is beyond painfully thin, and in addition to that he has a little hunchback thing going on and I don’t know what to make of it. It’s like he has terrible posture, something id never even think to mention about a prospect or any player for that matter

KD sort of had the same thing going on in College, bit of an awkward posture and (at the time) considered by man to be way too thin to play at the NBA level.

Chet is a bit more of an extreme and less of an overall athlete but I do think he can grow into himself a bit if given the time.

[eminence]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

How do you figure that? His stats are insanely impressive

Anthony Davis: 14.2ppg (65.4 TS%), 10.3rpg, 1.3apg, 4.7bpg and 1.4spg over 32mpg
Chet Holmgren: 14.2ppg (69.5 TS%), 9.8rpg, 1.9apg, 3.7bpg and 0.8spg over 27mpg

If he played the extra 5 minutes AD got, he would lead in pts/rbs/asts and efficiency. He has also demonstrated 3pt range that AD didn't really show in college. Lastly, he's sharing the court with an established volume post scorer in Timme which caps his numbers a bit.

I don't really look at box scores to be completely honest. He's nothing like AD so that's not a very good comparison. The frame is a huge deal. AD was what, 6'10 230 coming out? You can add muscle to a frame like that. Holmgren is listed at 190 LOL probably more like 180, honestly and at 7'1 or whatever he is, he's not adding any significant mass to that frame.

Gonzaga has had a cupcake schedule and Holmgren struggled against teams with post defenders taller than 6'7. He might have good shot blocking instincts but his lateral foot speed is lacking if you project forward to the NBA. His rebounding box numbers look fine on the surface but when you really dig into them and watch him against teams with real talent he doesn't really look like a strong rebounder either.

Go back and look at all his 15+ rebound games. They're all against 6'8-6'9 centers, not tough to grab rebounds when you're the tallest player on the floor by 5 inches.

Like another poster said, if the 3pt shot isn't 40%+ he's going to be an NBA flop. I don't even know if the 3 is going to translate either. FT% correlates very nicely to projecting 3pt shooting in the NBA and 74% ain't gonna cut it. I think the baseline number is 80%?

AD was 6'9 and 222 coming out: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/?SeasonYear=2012-13

Listed 6'10 and 220 in college. Chet listed 7'0 and 195

[Prokorov]

I just can't see how he's going to become a dominant NBA player. Forget his slim build, he's barely dominating NCAA competition.

He's Bol Bol sans the injury issues. Maybe Porzingis is a realistic best case?

He doesn't have the lateral quickness or footspeed to guard explosive NBA 4s and he's too slight to really bang down low.

His handle is "good enough" to trick people into thinking it'll translate to the NBA but I would be really surprised if he's doing more than the occasional transition.

How do you figure that? His stats are insanely impressive

Anthony Davis: 14.2ppg (65.4 TS%), 10.3rpg, 1.3apg, 4.7bpg and 1.4spg over 32mpg
Chet Holmgren: 14.2ppg (69.5 TS%), 9.8rpg, 1.9apg, 3.7bpg and 0.8spg over 27mpg

If he played the extra 5 minutes AD got, he would lead in pts/rbs/asts and efficiency. He has also demonstrated 3pt range that AD didn't really show in college. Lastly, he's sharing the court with an established volume post scorer in Timme which caps his numbers a bit.

Davis wasnt really tasked with being anything more then the best defender on the planet at UK. so he isnt the best offensive benchmark. there are also far far worse players then AD who busted who posted numbers like that in college. so its maybe even an effort in futility to draw anything from the comparison.

Chet makes all his non-three because its almost all dunks/putbacks/uncontested lay ins. then he goes 1-3 from three. He isnt asked to create a ton of offense for himself. he plays in the flow and off teammates. is he good enough to shoot 39% from deep at the pro line on 6 attempts a game? who knows... but as a #1 pick he needs to be more then a guy who gets easy ones at the rim, he will need to create offense

defensively, i dont see how early on he is more then an avg defender.