How good was prime westbrook?

[falcolombardi]

How good do you think westbrook was circa 2013-2017~

i think he was really, really great (not best player in the league contender great, but definitely superstar/all nba kind of impact)

think of a 5-10 best player in the league range in a random year (depending on talent at the top)

and some of his results actually agree (2013 and 2016 thunder offenses when healthy, some strong plus-minus results)

[Snakebites]

5-10 sounds about right to me, with maybe a touch higher in 2017.

He still had a lot of the flaws that are torpedoing his career now especially shot discipline), he just had elite athleticism which smoothed over those flaws and let the positives shine through more.

He used to be fun to watch too. Really fun. Hard to imagine now.

[falcolombardi]

5-10 sounds about right to me, with maybe a touch higher in 2017.

He still had a lot of the flaws that are torpedoing his career now especially shot discipline), he just had elite athleticism which smoothed over those flaws and let the positives shine through more.

He used to be fun to watch too. Really fun. Hard to imagine now.

i think alongside the athletism loss part of the problem la thst westbrook was arguably -more- skilled before aging, when you are supposed to inprove your skillset to help with athletic decline

his free throw shooting fell of a cliff in 2018 when the new rules forced him to change his routine and his jumper got worse too after 2017

it was perplexing to see

[RCM88x]

At best I think he'd probably be around 5th in 2016, 17. Back when he still could leverage his athleticism and size defensively. Exerted tremendous pressure on the defense off the dribble down at the rim. Borderline elite passing abilities both inside out and outside in (underrated part of his game). Ultra strong transition game too which is probably what has disappeared the most for him over the years.

It would be interesting to see 2015-17 Westbrook play in today's league, with 4 out spacing and a friendlier perimeter environment. I think he'd fair a bit better than he did then.

[Peregrine01]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

[Colbinii]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

[No-more-rings]

Better than people think these days apparently. Before they re-did the BPM formula, he broke the record by a pretty good amount in 2017 and wasn't far off in 2016 if i recall correctly.

Back then, there was legit discussion about whether he was better than KD and Harden. These days there's discussion about whether he was better than Billups.

[falcolombardi]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

funnily enough a efficient high volume scorer (jordan, dursnr), a inefficient high volume creator (pippen, westbrook), a floor spacer (kukoc and ibaka) and insane offensive rebounding (rodman/pippen vs a ton of okc players particularly Adams)

is the fórmula of the second threepeats bulls offense

[Peregrine01]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

Given the lack of shooting that they had, it was pretty crazy that they were right behind an all-time great offensive squad heralded by the greatest offensive performance in a regular season ever. I think that if you took out Westbrook, that 2016 OKC squad isn't sniffing a +7 offense.

[No-more-rings]

At best I think he'd probably be around 5th in 2016, 17. Back when he still could leverage his athleticism and size defensively. Exerted tremendous pressure on the defense off the dribble down at the rim. Borderline elite passing abilities both inside out and outside in (underrated part of his game). Ultra strong transition game too which is probably what has disappeared the most for him over the years.

Westbrook was actually a pretty good mid-range shooter too in those days. I'd probably argue his creation for others was more impactful than his actual scoring, because his scoring efficiency was only slightly above average when he was volume scoring, but the defensive pressure as you said and passing for others was a big deal.

It would be interesting to see 2015-17 Westbrook play in today's league, with 4 out spacing and a friendlier perimeter environment. I think he'd fair a bit better than he did then.

Was 2017 that much different than today? It's hard to see his numbers being much better if any than what he put up in 2017 though.

[Peregrine01]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

funnily enough a efficient high volume scorer (jordan, dursnr), a inefficient high volume creator (pippen, westbrook), a floor spacer (kukoc and ibaka) and insane offensive rebounding (rodman/pippen vs a ton of okc players particularly Adams)

is the fórmula of the second threepeats bulls offense

Interesting point. Though I point to a few differences:

- Pippen (or for that matter anyone on the 2nd three-peat Bulls) put no where near the rim pressure that Westbrook did
- Bulls had much better shooters
- Bulls were an all-time great defensive team (know you're talking about offense but this deserves mention)

[Colbinii]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

Given the lack of shooting that they had, it was pretty crazy that they were right behind an all-time great offensive squad heralded by the greatest offensive performance in a regular season ever. I think that if you took out Westbrook, that 2016 OKC squad isn't sniffing a +7 offense.

OKC isn't sniffing a +7 offense without Durant either though.

[eminence]

Clear top 10, contender for the last few spots in the top 5 strikes me as correct. When all were healthy I'd generally put him clearly behind LeBron/Curry and slightly behind Kawhi/KD/Harden/Draymond (7th). I think his '18 season gets underrated, though the ending vs Utah was pretty ugly.

POY rankings by year:
'12 - 8th
'13 - 11th
'14 - 12th
'15 - 6th
'16 - 4th
'17 - 3rd
'18 - n/a

[RCM88x]

At best I think he'd probably be around 5th in 2016, 17. Back when he still could leverage his athleticism and size defensively. Exerted tremendous pressure on the defense off the dribble down at the rim. Borderline elite passing abilities both inside out and outside in (underrated part of his game). Ultra strong transition game too which is probably what has disappeared the most for him over the years.

Westbrook was actually a pretty good mid-range shooter too in those days. I'd probably argue his creation for others was more impactful than his actual scoring, because his scoring efficiency was only slightly above average when he was volume scoring, but the defensive pressure as you said and passing for others was a big deal.

It would be interesting to see 2015-17 Westbrook play in today's league, with 4 out spacing and a friendlier perimeter environment. I think he'd fair a bit better than he did then.

Was 2017 that much different than today? It's hard to see his numbers being much better if any than what he put up in 2017 though.

I think so, foul call are far more strick on the perimeter and the way teams are constructed is just different. 2017 was the real start of the sorta change we've seen in the league.

The spacing he had those years in OKC was pretty terrible compared to what we see even today.

[stormi]

Was never a threat to win anything as a #1 option. Always a tier below Steph and Harden as lead guards. Energy merchant that was prone to horrific defensive lapses and boneheaded late game decision making.

[RCM88x]

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Read on Twitter

[sp6r=underrated]

I think so, foul call are far more strick on the perimeter

The impact of the mid teen rule changes to protect perimiter players are really undersold. I see five big factors over the last quarter century that changed the NBA permanently. Not in order of importance

1. Post-AI decision to permanently loosen carry calls. People notice the looser ball handling rules now campared to 50 years ago but they don't appreciate how important they are even in the last 30 years.
2. Better strategy and skill development. It is fairly understandable that players who were born after the 3 point line was created struggled to adopt the shot and coaches who came from pre-3 point line struggled to figure out how to use the line. Now we're living with people who've known the line all their lives.
3. 2005 rules changes: discussed countless times.
4. Moving screen changes: there is no clear line for when the moving screen call changed but gradually year to year the NBA loosened the moving screen requirement. Combined with all the other factors but especially 1 the pick and roll is brutally impossible to defend. I hate college refs who are far worse than NBA refs but you can see remnants of the old moving screen rule called in college. It makes defending the pick and roll much easier.
5. Teen rule changes: feet under the shooter, assumption a foul must be called anytime there is contact between an offensive player and defensive, and assumption the foul is always on the defense unless it is a clear charge. Changing the feet under the shooter was a good rule change but the fouling assumptions are terrible. The NBA tried to reverse course this year at the beginning of the season. But it didn't stick. These assumptions make playing aggressive on ball defense not worth it because inevitably Hardenesque tactics will result in foul trouble.

[Saints14]

Think you could argue as high as 4 from ‘15-‘17 after LeBron/Curry/KD. Paul, Harden, Kawhi and AD all in that range as well

[mattg]

He was really good and put sooooo much pressure on defenses with his athleticism and aggression even despite of his flaws. However after 2017 his mid range pull up that used to be his money shot seemed to fall off a cliff. Same with his FT shooting. And also his decision making which has always been a weakness became more exacerbated without the same talent surrounding him as his skill level and athleticism have waned slightly.

[LukaTheGOAT]

It might sound heretical to say now but I thought Westbrook was the more impactful offensive player in 2016 than Durant. He'll never score as efficiently but he just put so much pressure at the rim that collapsed the defense again and again. The Thunder really had no business being second in ORTG that year (just behind the 73 win Warriors) given their roster but that rim pressure created open looks for everyone else and the highest offensive rebounding rate in the league.

Why wouldn't the Thunder be a top 3-5 offense?

They had Durant and Westbrook at the peaks of their power [A 6.4 and 8.4 OBPM players each with a 30% Usage] and then a spacing big man in Ibaka and two extremely good offensive rebounders in Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to off-set the shooting woes of Waiters and Roberson.

Which teams did you expect to be better offensively?

The Cavaliers? Outside of James/Love and 53 games of Kyrie, their role players weren't exactly offensively effective [J.R. Smith, TT, 35-year old RJ, Matthew Dellavedova, Shumpert].

The Spurs? Nobody played enough minutes [Kawhi at 33, Aldridge 30, everyone else sub-30 MPG]

The Thunder absolutely had business being a top offensive team.

Given the lack of shooting that they had, it was pretty crazy that they were right behind an all-time great offensive squad heralded by the greatest offensive performance in a regular season ever. I think that if you took out Westbrook, that 2016 OKC squad isn't sniffing a +7 offense.

On your point that Russ might have been more valuable than Durant offensively in 2016. You might be on to something.

If we look at the RS or full season play of 2016 by the basic impact metrics

Westbrook

RAPTOR-6.6O/0D

LEBRON-5.89O/0.53D

Backpicks BPM- 5.5 OBPM/1.5 DBPM

Durant

RAPTOR- 5.5 O/0D

LEBRON-5.01 O/0.06D

Backpicks BPM- 5 OBPM/ 1.6 DBPM

Westbrook pretty consistently comes out looking better offensively than Durant by the plus-minus metrics.

However, we compare Westbrook and Durant from 13-16 in the PS, you might be surprised by some of the results. There is an interesting trend in how Westbrook stands out.

Analytically Westbrook really pops

Inflation Adjusted Points Per 75-28.3 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.1%)

Westbrook (13-16)

3 year PS on/off-11.8

3 year PS AuPM/G-4.8

3 year PS Backpicks BPM-6.6

(Taking a look at single PS performance)
13 PS RAPTOR-7.88

14 PS RAPTOR-6.4

16 PS RAPTOR Total-7.4

Kevin Durant (13-16)

Inflation Adjusted Points Per 75-28.5 pts per 75 (rTS% of 3.5%)

3-year PS on/off-8.8

3 year PS AuPM/G-3.8

3 year PS Backpicks BPM-5.2

(Individaul PS performance)
13 PS RAPTOR Total-6.40

14 PS RAPTOR Total-5.6

16 PS RAPTOR Total-2.7

From just this mere data, Westbrook looks like a highly valuable sidekick to Durant, that more then held his weight. Keep in mind, that Westbrook offensively might have been more disadvantaged then Durant by OKC's setting due to their overall lack of spacing, which teams took advantage of. Yet the Thunder had an impressive rORTG of 6.5 despite being banged up at times, which is better than many championship teams perform in the PS. A team with more floors-spacers might have been better optimized Westbrook and made him an even more effective teammate to making things for Durant with his drive and kick ability.

And that leads up to the next part that where Westbrook was a top 3-5 playmaker in the league during this time. Westbrook is estimated to have created about 12.9 shots per 100 possessions during this time period, which is hugely valuable. For comparison, Durant was at about 7.1 shots per 100 possessions. In this way, his playmaking really helped to elevate those OKC offenses by providing bordering on historic shot creation for others, and considering Durant was a solid passer and playmaker, but necessarily an offensive engine that can do all the playmaking for an offense, this is hugely valuable. I don't see any reason why Russ incredible playmaking couldn't carry over to over situations considering he was working with relatively poor spacing in OKC. Furthermore, you could argue his scoring output during this time is more than sufficient for being a #1 player on offense for many championship teams, and nonetheless he played this role as a #2 option for OKC.