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How many more high level seasons does he need to crack your top 10 list?

Very likely.

I expect him to crack the LBJ, KAJ, MJ group and make it a foursome. that's how good this dude is.

Quite a few more seasons but he has an outside shot but I wouldn't bet on it.

LeBron cracked the top-10 in 2014 [via RealGM Top 100] with 33K RS Minutes, 9.3 BPM and 168.5 WS.

Giannis is currently at 21186 Minutes, 6.0 BPM and 86.9 WS.

LeBron had 158 Playoff games at this point--Giannis has 68 total.

The Post-2011 List is probably more accurate currently, which is when LeBron was at #18 following the biggest black mark on his career. At that point LeBron was significantly ahead of Giannis by most All-in-one Metrics and minutes.

Essentially Giannis needs to replicate his 2018-2022 seasons [5 years] again to form an argument for Top 10.

I would say at least 2 more titles bare minimum, another MVP, 8-10 more years of dominance, it’s a very steep hill to climb but certainly possible.

I think it’s probably unlikely? Though

He probably needs like 5 more high level seasons and more consistently strong playoff runs but even then I think he needs another ring. Otherwise I think he just ends up in the West, Oscar, Kobe, KG, Dirk group for me.

he will need very good longevity since i think his peak is in the lower end of the top 10 guys

if his jumpshot and post game comes along i could see him extending his prime better than many expect

Need to see more of him in the playoffs against quality defenses to say for sure. I still find Giannis' game hard to evaluate just because his situation is so perfect for optimizing his numbers/impact, especially in the regular season where he can feast on bottom feeding teams. His scoring numbers have once again dropped off pretty hard against top 10 defenses this season, which is a pattern that's been consistent since 2019.



If he can move to playing C full time I'll feel more comfortable about his portability and it might help his offensive resiliency. For now his closest historical comparison might be David Robinson, who I have right on the border of top 10. So depending on how his career goes it's definitely possible. My low end evaluation would put him at around the same level of Kevin Durant which would put him in that 15-20 range.

I think it depends on how resilient his offense ends up being going forward in the playoffs. He’s showed improvement last postseason but i’m not so convinced he’s actually turned the corner. He’ll also likely be battling Jokic, with Jokic being the opposite where his d is more in question. Overall i’ve been more impressed with Jokic in the playoffs though. If Giannis comes to show that he can rarely if ever be rattled in certain matchups, there’s a strong chance he makes top 10. At worst he should at least be in the Kobe/Dirk/West range, but i do feel he’s poised to pass that. Even someone like Lebron I don’t think erased all offensive doubt until like 2016 or 2017, and he was much further along in his career than Giannis. Simply winning one title won’t do it. It will be difficult to make top 10 without at least 3 titles imo. Only Wilt and Hakeem have less than that.

Giannis has made pretty notable improvement across the board on his distance splits this season...

0 to 3 feet
18-21: 50.4% of FGAs | .791 FG%
21-22: 39.9% of FGAs | .807 FG%

3 to 10 feet
18-21: 16.7% of FGAs | .362 FG%
21-22: 20.1% of FGAs | .422 FG%

10 to 16 feet
18-21: 7.1% of FGAs | .391 FG%
21-22: 12.3% of FGAs | .415 FG%

16 feet to 3P
18-21: 5.7% of FGAs | .379 FG%
21-22: 8.0% of FGAs | .435 FG%

Pretty much going to come down to health & how the Bucks postseasons go from here on out. Plus he could still figure out the three ball somewhere down the road.

Season isn't quite done yet, but four year peak Giannis has some pretty impressive ranks currently...

PER
Jordan 24-27: 31.4
Giannis 24-27: 31.1
Chmbrln 24-27: 30.7
LeBron 24-27: 30.2
Shaq 27-30: 30.1

TS%
Barkley 24-27: .654
Durant 24-27: .636
Curry 25-28: .636
Giannis 24-27: .631
Magic 27-30: .608
Michael 24-27: .607

WS/48
Kareem 23-26: .309
Jordan 24-27: .301
LeBron 24-27: .289
Durant 24-27: .283
Chmbrln 24-27: .278
Giannis 24-27: .277

I think its highly unlikely anyone finishes in the top 10 at this stage of their career no matter how good they are. Its just such a high bar to reach.

But he is in position to get there if he continues this trajectory. Steph and KD were both in position and got derailed so we'll have to see.

5% chance

He needs one more chip and MVP for me to be in that Hakeem-Kobe tier, probably below them both but right there. DPOY also gets points.

Anything more than that and he's in my top 10.

I think there is a good chance. Pretty awesome that as the Lebron, Curry, KD cohort gradually get older, we have two guys (Giannis and Jokic) who might end up in top-10 conversations.

Peregrine01 wrote:I think there is a good chance. Pretty awesome that as the Lebron, Curry, KD cohort gradually get older, we have two guys (Giannis and Jokic) who might end up in top-10 conversations.

Jokic I don't see because he seems destined to spend his prime years on a non-title contender. I hope this isn't true, I'd love to see him make his run. Also, we do still need to see if Jokic can be ATG level in the postseason. He' s been good but not at that level just yet.

Giannis is the only current guy for me that seems somewhat destined for it

Very likely IMO, he's on the trajectory. His accolades at 27 are incredible. At this rate I think he ends up with 1-2 more rings and possibly another MVP, FMVP, and/or DPOY which will be enough for me. Not to mention All-NBA selections.

Just comes down to longevity and sustained excellence now, which I fully trust he'll maintain.

SeniorWalker wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:I think there is a good chance. Pretty awesome that as the Lebron, Curry, KD cohort gradually get older, we have two guys (Giannis and Jokic) who might end up in top-10 conversations.

Jokic I don't see because he seems destined to spend his prime years on a non-title contender. I hope this isn't true, I'd love to see him make his run. Also, we do still need to see if Jokic can be ATG level in the postseason. He' s been good but not at that level just yet.

Giannis is the only current guy for me that seems somewhat destined for it

Luka is moving on up too

I'd love it if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for his whole career, btw. It seems he has every intention to do so, I really admire the guy for his persistence and loyalty.

GSP wrote:

SeniorWalker wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:I think there is a good chance. Pretty awesome that as the Lebron, Curry, KD cohort gradually get older, we have two guys (Giannis and Jokic) who might end up in top-10 conversations.

Jokic I don't see because he seems destined to spend his prime years on a non-title contender. I hope this isn't true, I'd love to see him make his run. Also, we do still need to see if Jokic can be ATG level in the postseason. He' s been good but not at that level just yet.

Giannis is the only current guy for me that seems somewhat destined for it

Luka is moving on up too

Luka is going to have to do A LOT from where he currently is to even make the top 20. He's never made it out of the first round, and has no hardware. He's not in this discussion as of yet, we need to wait until he accumulates some hardware. Same with Jokic really, but Jokic is better than Luka and at least has an MVP and a conference finals appearance.

SeniorWalker wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:I think there is a good chance. Pretty awesome that as the Lebron, Curry, KD cohort gradually get older, we have two guys (Giannis and Jokic) who might end up in top-10 conversations.

Jokic I don't see because he seems destined to spend his prime years on a non-title contender. I hope this isn't true, I'd love to see him make his run. Also, we do still need to see if Jokic can be ATG level in the postseason. He' s been good but not at that level just yet.

Giannis is the only current guy for me that seems somewhat destined for it

Agreed that Giannis is in a way better situation. Though there are players in and around the top-10 who were in bad situations and ultimately found a way to win. Jokic also seems to be the prototypical player that's likely to have a pretty elongated prime.

I think the last guys to be on better pace by the age he's currently at are probably only LeBron and Jordan themselves. He's probably about where TD was by his age 27 season for me which says a lot.

I think he maybe has a 20% chance, which is extremely high. I don't think anyone else in the league has an over 5% chance.