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full disclosure i think jokic is the rightful mvp, best regular season player and best in the world contender so i am not looking to criticize him for losing which nuggets probably will do

what i wonder is what the media and fan reaction would be to a two times mvp being swept twice in a row in early rounds? even with the weak rosters i doubt they will go easy on him

nash still gets criticized for """stealing""" shaq and kobe mvps despite low scoring numbers (most hate on nash mvps comes from his low-ish scoring average), lebron for his record against durant warriors, etc

a lot of fans and people in the media seem to already dislike jokic, in part for being an advanced stats darling and mock "stat nerds" for propping him up with advanced stats and "stealing" mvps from players like embiid or giannis

just how hard would the general basketball world go on jokic? is honestly worrisome how much the general media and fans may write him off for the sin of having to carry bad teams

Honestly what players ever won back to back MVP without a top 2 seed the 2nd year?

If so, he will not get another MVP next year unless Nuggets finish with 74 wins or better.

Meh Dirk got swept after his MVP. Nobody is ranking Jokic in the ATG lists right now

Caveat: MVP doesn't really matter to me.

1) Kobe's MVP? Like I say I don't care but his highest finish in the Nash years is 4th. Unless one sees Nash voters as being particularly high on Kobe that's a stretch.

2) Players don't get swept, teams do.

3) Holding a sweep against a player (as occasionally seen with Shaq) is to argue they would have been better getting off eliminated earlier. You kind of caveat that with "early" but in this context 2nd round is being defined absolutely as early so a narrow first round out is regarded as better than a second round sweep (without any regard to how the player played). This is a pretty perverse incentive.

4) It sounds like you're listening to a lot of people who you neither hold their opinions in high regard nor enjoy. If so, I suggest you try to stop ... maybe you don't or maybe it's hard if you're in a routine ... but maybe worth trying.

Statlanta wrote:Meh Dirk got swept after his MVP. Nobody is ranking Jokic in the ATG lists right now

No he didn't Dirk never got swept until 2012

dygaction wrote:If so, he will not get another MVP next year unless Nuggets finish with 74 wins or better.

3 Mvps is rarified air. He will def need to push if not get 70 wins to even be considered and he won't be winning any more Mvps without a top 2 seed at least thats for sure

GSP wrote:

dygaction wrote:If so, he will not get another MVP next year unless Nuggets finish with 74 wins or better.

3 Mvps is rarified air. He will def need to push if not get 70 wins to even be considered and he won't be winning any more Mvps without a top 2 seed at least thats for sure

Yes, let's have a quick look at the 3+ MVP player list really quickly.

Lebron
Jordan
Magic
Bird
Moses Malone
Kareem
Wilt
Bill Russell

and... done. Unless you want to count Dr. J's ABA MVPs, in which case you add him in as well.

It's a short list of some of the best players in league history. Maybe we look at Moses as a bit of an outlier, maybe not. But there is a certain baseline player level on that list. You'll notice that Steph, Shaq, KD, Nash and KD are absent from the list. Giannis still has time to sneak in there.

Jokic needs to win two before we worry about 3, but dygaction's point about Jokic get swept in consecutive seasons limiting his potential for a third straight MVP seems legit. The list of guys who have won three straight is even smaller: Bird, Wilt, Bill Russell. That's a very rare achievement to begin with and most of even the best players in league history haven't done it, so I doubt it's something we'll see with Jokic. The narrative requirements for such a feat are wild, and it hasn't been done in decades. I doubt he's the one to do it, either. Voter fatigue is a thing, after all.

Okay, thoughts ...

I think voters (at least some of them) probably do factor in stuff that shouldn't be included.

Prior awards and prior seasons (and postseason play) aren't supposed to be a factor.

One could argue for their inclusion indirectly as informing a holistic vision of what the player is.

I don't really see the value of consecutiveness in awards. It's rarer/harder - in that it's a subset (but probably not rarer nor harder than an alternate specific subset with the same total: NYYYN isn't harder than YNYNY). But if its a set amount in a specific career I don't see having alternate years is worse than adjacent ones.

FWIW Steve Nash was fairly close to getting to the 3 MVP and 3 consecutive clubs. He and Dirk dominated the top 2 ballot slots in 2007. It's not unthinkable that he collars that award with small changes (e.g. Dallas wins 61 games, in line with Pythagorean expectations, rather than 67).

Players that win 3 MVPs tend to be great players, but they aren't great players because they won 3 MVPs. If Jokic "deserves" the MVP (inverted commas, because with the nebulous criteria who can say what "deserving" it means ... but say if voters think he deserves it based on the standard of his play) they shouldn't (IMO) back off because of reluctance putting him in some "club", because they don't (yet) think he belongs there.

Owly wrote:I don't really see the value of consecutiveness in awards. It's rarer/harder - in that it's a subset (but probably not rarer nor harder than an alternate specific subset with the same total: NYYYN isn't harder than YNYNY). But if its a set amount in a specific career I don't see having alternate years is worse than adjacent ones.[/qiuote]

I see what you're saying. I debate the point, though. I think it IS harder to hit them consecutively because voters aren't looking to reward people that regularly unless something truly spectacular is going on. Then again, more in support of your point, there have been so few players across league history who have even won 3+ to begin with that we can't say that conclusively, only over what sample we have, so there's that.

Players that win 3 MVPs tend to be great players, but they aren't great players because they won 3 MVPs.

Surely. And simply for winning 3 in a row, Bird isn't suddenly and necessarily better than Jordan or Lebron, for example. The conversation could be had, but not on that basis, for sure.

The nba does not care for the mvp vote

SAS has an nba mvp vote lol

He’s the regular season MVP, that’s great but he’s never going to crack and all time great list for me because he simply cannot carry a team.

He might be the greatest offensive center of all time statistically but he can’t carry a team when it matters.

100% people will knock him if he gets swept again and they should. If you can’t win at the highest level who cares how great your stats were?

LeBron carried rosters way worse than what Jokic has now, for years in Cleveland and people hold that against him.

jasonxxx102 wrote:He’s the regular season MVP, that’s great but he’s never going to crack and all time great list for me because he simply cannot carry a team.

He might be the greatest offensive center of all time statistically but he can’t carry a team when it matters.

100% people will knock him if he gets swept again and they should. If you can’t win at the highest level who cares how great your stats were?

LeBron carried rosters way worse than what Jokic has now, for years in Cleveland and people hold that against him.

Define "carry" such that it's different for Jokic than for Lebron.

Lebron before 2011 got the Cavs to the semis 3x, the conference finals 2x and the Finals once. And of course no one really holds his first two years against him. He beat a .500 Wizards team without Arenas, a .500 Nets team with Vince choking it up, and a pretty good Pistons team before getting swept.

Jokic in 2019 beat a 48-win Spurs team and lost in 7 to a 53-win Blazers squad. The year after, he beat a 44-win Utah team, a 49-win Clippers team and lost to the eventual-champion Lakers. Last season, he beat a 42-win Blazers team and lost to the 51-win Suns, who took the title Bucks to 6.

What's materially different about these stretches?

tsherkin wrote:

jasonxxx102 wrote:He’s the regular season MVP, that’s great but he’s never going to crack and all time great list for me because he simply cannot carry a team.

He might be the greatest offensive center of all time statistically but he can’t carry a team when it matters.

100% people will knock him if he gets swept again and they should. If you can’t win at the highest level who cares how great your stats were?

LeBron carried rosters way worse than what Jokic has now, for years in Cleveland and people hold that against him.

Define "carry" such that it's different for Jokic than for Lebron.

Lebron before 2011 got the Cavs to the semis 3x, the conference finals 2x and the Finals once. And of course no one really holds his first two years against him. He beat a .500 Wizards team without Arenas, a .500 Nets team with Vince choking it up, and a pretty good Pistons team before getting swept.

Jokic in 2019 beat a 48-win Spurs team and lost in 7 to a 53-win Blazers squad. The year after, he beat a 44-win Utah team, a 49-win Clippers team and lost to the eventual-champion Lakers. Last season, he beat a 42-win Blazers team and lost to the 51-win Suns, who took the title Bucks to 6.

What's materially different about these stretches?

Well in his 2nd year he got knocked out in the semis, fine.

3rd year drags the worst team to ever to be in the finals. It’s debatable between the 07 Cavs and the AI Sixers but that team was horrific. LeBron single-handedly beat Detroit.

Anyone remember double OT game 5 against Detroit? That’s what carrying a team looks like.

08 Lebron drags the same joke of a team to the ECS to lose in 7 to the eventual champs

09 takes bums to the ECF

10 he’s checked out.

Never gets swept besides the finals, sweeps 3 rounds, gentleman’s sweep once and never loses a series in less than 5 games.

Yea… it’s materially different. Plus the LeBron Cavs rosters were measurably worse than any roster Jokic has had in the playoffs

We just gonna ignore Jamal Murray dropping 50 twice and 40 in the bubble playoffs and give all that credit to Jokic?

LeBron didn’t have a single player who was half as good as Murray for any of his runs in his first run in Cleveland so let’s not pretend Jokic has carried anybody

jasonxxx102 wrote:

tsherkin wrote:

jasonxxx102 wrote:He’s the regular season MVP, that’s great but he’s never going to crack and all time great list for me because he simply cannot carry a team.

He might be the greatest offensive center of all time statistically but he can’t carry a team when it matters.

100% people will knock him if he gets swept again and they should. If you can’t win at the highest level who cares how great your stats were?

LeBron carried rosters way worse than what Jokic has now, for years in Cleveland and people hold that against him.

Define "carry" such that it's different for Jokic than for Lebron.

Lebron before 2011 got the Cavs to the semis 3x, the conference finals 2x and the Finals once. And of course no one really holds his first two years against him. He beat a .500 Wizards team without Arenas, a .500 Nets team with Vince choking it up, and a pretty good Pistons team before getting swept.

Jokic in 2019 beat a 48-win Spurs team and lost in 7 to a 53-win Blazers squad. The year after, he beat a 44-win Utah team, a 49-win Clippers team and lost to the eventual-champion Lakers. Last season, he beat a 42-win Blazers team and lost to the 51-win Suns, who took the title Bucks to 6.

What's materially different about these stretches?

Well in his 2nd year he got knocked out in the semis, fine.

3rd year drags the worst team to ever to be in the finals. It’s debatable between the 07 Cavs and the AI Sixers but that team was horrific. LeBron single-handedly beat Detroit.

Anyone remember double OT game 5 against Detroit? That’s what carrying a team looks like.

08 Lebron drags the same joke of a team to the ECS to lose in 7 to the eventual champs

09 takes bums to the ECF

10 he’s checked out.

Never gets swept besides the finals, sweeps 3 rounds, gentleman’s sweep once and never loses a series in less than 5 games.

Yea… it’s materially different. Plus the LeBron Cavs rosters were measurably worse than any roster Jokic has had in the playoffs

i have lebron "carryjobs"/floor raising as more impressive than jokic but no way this year nuggets roster is not worse than lebron rosters 07-10

as linited as those supporting casts were in offensive help, they at leasy had strong spacing and solid defenders/rebounders which i cannot aay about this denver team

besides, there is no shame in being a worse floor raiser than probably the best floor raiser in the history of the league

jasonxxx102 wrote:Well in his 2nd year he got knocked out in the semis, fine.

3rd year drags the worst team to ever to be in the finals. It’s debatable between the 07 Cavs and the AI Sixers but that team was horrific. LeBron single-handedly beat Detroit.

The East was pretty crappy that year, Detroit aside, but yes, Lebron definitely played well against Detroit. Do keep in mind that Jokic's Nuggets lost to the Blazers with him popping 27/14/8 on 52/46/83. Only so much a given player can do. Is that really a lot worse of a performance than Lebron folding against Detroit in 06? Or the Spurs in 07? Maybe we give him a pass for the Spurs, of course, because they were an insane defense, kinda like Kobe v Boston in 2008. Or Lebron v Boston in 2008, for that matter. Or Lebron v Boston in 2010.

Yea… it’s materially different. Plus the LeBron Cavs rosters were measurably worse than any roster Jokic has had in the playoffs

An interesting take, particularly since the level of competition in losses is a worthy subject of discussion here. And I notice you're not discussing how Jokic's team didn't really show in 2019 vs the Blazers, or against Phoenix last season. Convenient.