RealGM

When we get to 2025, based on each team's current players, draft position, and attractiveness as a free agent market, which teams are most likely to miss the playoffs in 2025?

Unfortunately, I am starting this thread despite being a Wizards far and I see them as still being a bottom feeder in 2025 though I think Tommy Sheppard has done a good job providing some hope after the decade long debacle that was Ernie Grunfeld.

I mean the only way to look at this correctly is to look not at the current roster and draft picks, but the governership. Those teams that have shown decade plus runs of incompetence are likely going to continue to do so and those franchises that are consistently well run are much more likely to figure it out. Of course even good organizations can have a bad year like GSW did 2 years ago or Indiana this year, but mostly you trust track records.

So the Kings and the Wolves feel like the safest bets to be lottery teams despite the Wolves currently looking like a bit of an up and comer.

3 years ago the Rockets were going toe to toe with the Steph/KD Warriors. Did they think 3 years later they would be a bottom feeder?

The Orlando Magic now that the East is competent.

Yeah, Orlando are a good bet. Our owners don't mind the team being awful and the front office hasn't taken any risks in the 5 years they have been in charge.

I'll go with the Kings. They'll probably waste a couple of years trying to make the Fox/Sabonis core a play-in team before starting over again.

The Wizards are a good pick too but at least we've seen them build some average-ish teams over the last decade. Can't say the same for the Kangz.

I'll go with the Kings followed closely by the Pacers.

Texas Chuck wrote:
So the Kings and the Wolves feel like the safest bets to be lottery teams despite the Wolves currently looking like a bit of an up and comer.

If you criteria is ownership history then putting the Wolves here makes no sense given they will be under new ownership in the next year

Bank Shot wrote:I'll go with the Kings. They'll probably waste a couple of years trying to make the Fox/Sabonis core a play-in team before starting over again.

The Wizards are a good pick too but at least we've seen them build some average-ish teams over the last decade. Can't say the same for the Kangz.

True, the trouble is building a team that has the talent to be average has been their goal for the last 40 years. In all that time, they have only made 2 major trades that could be objectively said not to be short term thinking (Pervis Ellison, Russell Westbrook). And, unsurprisingly, they have generally been competing for the last playoff spot in the East and never once considered a legitimate contender.

I'd take the Rockets still running the process over any of these

I think Lakers are also gonna be there

andyhop wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:
So the Kings and the Wolves feel like the safest bets to be lottery teams despite the Wolves currently looking like a bit of an up and comer.

If you criteria is ownership history then putting the Wolves here makes no sense given they will be under new ownership in the next year

Kings changed owners too during this span. I'm not prepared to say ARod and co are going to be a solution until they show they are. For every Ballmer and Cuban who come in and spark immediate improvement there are a Jordan and a Vivek who don't. Yes I think its unlikely to be worse than the current guy, but its a total unknown atm.

I'd argue thread title and question in the full opening post are different.

I wouldn't call making the playoffs "good" necessarily (especially now you can get on via the 10 seed) though where and how one draws the line can of course vary.

fwiw, Hollinger and Duncan did a future (power) rankings where the criteria was something like which team you'd least like to be a fan of over the next 3 years. That's slightly different as it would exclude good/okay but on the way down teams. But I think they made Kings number 30.

I'll check their thinking
Duncan: "last tier is New York, Washington and Sacramento" Later seems to throw in San Antonio.
Hollinger: "I had Indiana in that tier too."
Hollinger - says Wizards done well to get out from clear cut 30th flipping Wall and then Westbrook contracts.

Now the thinking is these teams might often still seem to be mid-30s, hunting for high 30s and playoffs and so they might do "better" (short term playoff offs wise) than a clearer vision team that commits to a rebuild.

Texas Chuck wrote:

andyhop wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:
So the Kings and the Wolves feel like the safest bets to be lottery teams despite the Wolves currently looking like a bit of an up and comer.

If you criteria is ownership history then putting the Wolves here makes no sense given they will be under new ownership in the next year

Kings changed owners too during this span. I'm not prepared to say ARod and co are going to be a solution until they show they are. For every Ballmer and Cuban who come in and spark immediate improvement there are a Jordan and a Vivek who don't. Yes I think its unlikely to be worse than the current guy, but its a total unknown atm.

Wolves have Edwards and Towns, who are both real good young talent. I like their chances to be a playoff team in 3 years more than a lot of other teams.

The Lakers were the only team in the league that was above average in age and had a losing record. I don't have a lot of realistic scenarios where they are a good team in 3 years (defining good as Top 12 team, in playoffs without playin game)

I could see San Antonio hard resetting, especially if Pop hangs it up

my Hornets
source: last 20 years

sad thing is I could see us making the play-in every time

Pistons need a mention. Cade is promising, but there really is nothing else. A lot depends on our lotto luck. Jury is still out on Weaver, to say the least.

Pistons are one I thought of, up there with Kings for worst in the last 10, but Cade gives them someone to build around. Sacramento, Orlando, and Washington are missing that young potential star and seem to be our leading candidates.

Kings or Lakers.

Kings will spend the next 2 years winning 30-35 games and then Sabonis will leave and they'll have nothing.

Lakers have no picks, players aren't gonna want to go there and lose, and LeBron is getting old. That's all if they can someone dump WB