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How far do the Nets go with ’18 Lebron replacing Durant?

I voted ECF out of respect for Lebron's greatness, but they probably lose in the 2nd round depending on seeding. I'd have to imagine they're an underdog against Heat, Celtics or Bucks. At the very least I don't see them getting through 2/3 of those teams which would likely be required to advance to the finals.

I know people will point out how he took the Cavs to the finals and all, but the conference that year was definitely very weak historically. The Cavs just scrapped by the Pacers who were not a really good team, and needed 7 to beat a worse version of this year's Celtics. Those guys are all older and just better now. I know there's no Kyrie, but Brown and Tatum's improvements are significant.

no doubt in my mind that they beat the celtics. this series felt remarkably close as far as sweeps go and i think a normal KD performance could've easily made the difference, let alone plugging in 2018 lebron

however i dont see how they beat the bucks R2. giannis would obliterate that defense lol

they go to the finals. this is a no brainer. if he made to the finals with the 18 cavs, he's making with this brooklyn team and kyrie.

If you are getting game 1 Kyrie they can go far. If they get the games 2-4 Kyrie they lose in round 1. Boston has at least the size to deal with Lebron along with the defense. Considering who they would have to go thru to get to finals Makes a big deal. 2018 was Oliadipo (went 7), Derozan, and a 20 year old Tatum that also went 7.
This year an all nba Tatum, Brown and DPOY in Smart and then possibly Giannis in round 2 and Embiid/Harden or Miami with Butler and Company.

Considering look like serious NBA Finals Contenders, it is very much within reason that the Nets don't get out of round one if you replace 18 Lebron. However, I do think that you likely get a bit more competitive of a series.

The Celtics this year had a -5.1 rDRTG which is really special stuff.

The 2018 Celtics which is considered to have similar yet much more offensively raw personnel (although you get a much younger Al Horford who might have been the Celtics 2nd best player this past series), had a -4.7 rDRTG. You could argue the defenses were similar in ability.

Lebron in that series he averaged 32 points per 75 possessions and 6.3 assists per game on a rTS% of 7.8%. In that series he had a 10.7 BPM and created about 17.4 shots per 100 possessions.

Kevin Durant this past series averaged 22.7 pts per 75 possessions and assists per 75 possessions on negative efficiency. Per Bball Ref, he had a -4.9 BPM and created about 7.7 shots per 100 possessions.

I don't think the scheme Boston used to neutralize KD would employed against Lebron, because I think he is a better passer, and also he handles bumps better, and is also able to get to the rim more easily.

Now, it is not so much concern around would Lebron get his numbers, but moreso, could he get his co-star in Kyrie Irving going as well. Generally, the Nets role players were able to score because of the focus on Kyrie and KD, and based on the type of shots they got and made, I do think this could maybe be carried over in a world where Kyrie Irving plays much better. However, Kyrie Irving struggling so mightily yet taking as many shots as he does are loss possessions.



The Kyrie factor is a big thing in this hypothetical because Lebron seems to be able to unlock the best out of him

His 3-yr PS scoring peak all happened in years with Lebron.

From 15-17:

Inflation Adjusted Points Per 75- 26.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of 4.3%). That mark is all-time scoring for a PG over 3 title runs (with so many minutes at 1891) a span that you have only really seen from Steph or CP3 (unless we count Jerry West as a PG and maybe some other people who aren't always counted as PG).

However, in the PS runs without Lebron:

18-19:

Inflation Adjusted Points Per 75- 21.8 Points Per 75 (rTS% of NEGATIVE 5.2%)

20-21:

Inflation Adjusted Points Per 75-22.6 Points Per 75 (rTS% of 1%)

As I mentioned, it is early, but Kyrie was an all-time great scoring PG that has fell down several tiers since his departure with Lebron. Perhaps it is fair to question how much of an offensive load you would like Kyrie to take on, as perhaps he benefits from someone who can dissect the defense for him.

His overall offensive impact has potentially dwindled in the PS (despite improving in the RS since leaving LBJ)

Per PS LEBRON, his offensive peak was from 15-17 with.

15-17: O-LEBRON of 3.90

19-21: O-LEBRON of 0.74

That is a major drop-off, where he went from looking better than 14-16 Harden, 18-20 Jimmy Butler, and 16-18 Westbrook, while also looking comparable to 17-19 Harden to not looking very spectacular.

The drop-off is noticeable in PS Backpicks OBPM as well.

15: 3.7
16: 4.8
17: 4.3
3-year peak is during this time at 4.4

19: 1
21: 2.81

He once again goes from looking like a strong all-nba level OFFENSIVE player from 15-17 to looking unspectacular after that period. One way or another, either the 15-17 stretch for Kyrie was luck or perhaps Lebron did a good job of helping to optimize him. His 3-yr PS scoring peak all happened in years with Lebron.

Lebron and Kyrie helped to lead some of the best PS offenses ever (According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS), and this was when Kyrie was a notably worse player (per RS production) than he is now. If they could rekindle that magic, they would be a dangerous threat for anyone.

I think Lebron's rim drives would be pressure on the defense and force them into rotation. I think a key thing to note is that the Nets really struggled applying pressure on the rim to help open up things. Kevin Durant averaged only about 1.5 rim field goal attempts per 75 possessions and shot 29% at the rim...so the most efficient shots that there are, KD was unable to create nor make, and I believe that is a big reason why the offense was stagnant.

One final thing I would like to note, is that the Nets vs Celtics series with KD was maybe a bit closer than people realized. The Nets shot a higher effective field goal percentage than the Celtics in the first round and got swept. That is THE FIRST TIME IN NBA HISTORY that has ever happened. Simply put rebounds and turnovers killed the Nets, but they were still competitive. Perhaps with a better playmaker like Lebron running the offense, the untimely turnovers that lead to stagnant offense/without making the defense pay is overcome.

Also one more fun fact is that the total margin of victory for the Celtics was historically small for a sweep:



Therefore, little differences here and there can swing a series and depending on a multitude of factors, it is a possibility they win the series. However, nothing is set in stone.

Just replacing him for the playoffs, the biggest difference is how much more Lebron puts pressure on the paint and the rim through his drives than KD. I think Thinking Basketball mentioned this with their last pod but KD had less than 10 FGA at the rim in the series and shot terribly. '18 Lebron was one of the GOAT finishers at the rim and creators of those shots.

I think they really play the Celtics a lot better, it's not like the Nets got blown out either, all of those games we're winnable. Much like the 2018 ECF which was pretty up and down I think the series would be similar. I could see this team either losing in 7 to the Celtics or making it to the Finals.

Heat would theoretically give them the biggest trouble with their switchable defense but I think they honestly match up decently with the rest of the East.

With Nash as a coach, and all the circumstances they've faced throught the season, first round loss against a well coached, talented Celtics team.

durant in this series shot 38% FGs, 33% 3pt, 52% TS, averaged 26 ppg, 6 rebs and 6 assists.

2018 lebron in the playoffs: 54% FGs, 34% 3pt, 62% TS, averaged 34, 9 and 9.

there is simply no comparison.

that's why lebron is a consensus top 3 player of all time and Durant is trying to get into the top 10.

replacing durant with lebron changes everything.

brooklyn lost 4 games by an average of 4 points against the celtics. trade durant for lebron, brooklyn is winning that series and with that kind of dominance, there is a very good chance they make the finals - the bucks would be a problem, but lebron gonna lebron.

SeattleJazzFan wrote:they go to the finals. this is a no brainer. if he made to the finals with the 18 cavs, he's making with this brooklyn team and kyrie.

Sure, except the East is so so sooooooo much better now. The 2018 Celtics had an SRS of 3.23 with a rOrtg of -1.0 and rDrtg of -4.7. They took Lebron to 7 games while missing their #1 scorer (Kyrie, ironically) and Gordon Hayward out for the season. The 2022 Celtics: SRS 7.02, rOrtg +2.4, rDrtg -5.1 (and was closer to a historic -8 since January).

Around the 2018 Celtics with baby Tatum, there was the paper tiger Raptors (multiple bad defenders in their starting lineup and no resilient playoff offense), and the baby versions of Embiid and Giannis.

2022 East has prime Giannis, prime Embiid, prime Tatum, a very tough Miami team, a much less paper Raptors.

I'd give Lebron a chance, but not if Brooklyn faced the same circumstances: Kyrie and Simmons absence, only having small guards in the rotation etc.

Beating the 2018 East is not evidence that one could beat the 2022 East.

SeattleJazzFan wrote:they go to the finals. this is a no brainer. if he made to the finals with the 18 cavs, he's making with this brooklyn team and kyrie.

…because the context of the conference does not matter, right? Like, if convenient we just assume those Celtics are the same as they were five years ago.

LeBron without help against this opposition would not do anything. They stop him just like they stopped KD, dont fool yourself. He didnt even make the post season with the Lakers twice now, theres absolutely no reason to believe he would have done more. For some reason, LeBron fans enjoy harping on KD right now ,as if a 1st round exit isnt still a lot better than missing the playoffs altogether, but theres remarkably little talk about the context - from Kyrie (did you read he wants to „manage“ the franchise now? And of course he made sure everyone sees he observes ramadan so his miserable performance was for the greater good…) to Simmons to Harden and the price they gave up to get that bum, including the Cavs MVP Jarrett Allen.

The Celtics will probably face the Sixers next - and i dont see them fall for the Nets either, regardless of who leads them - and then the Bucks. After that they may face the reborn Warriors. Its just beyond me how anyone could say this team, with Bron instead of KD, would win a title. Personally i dont think he would have made any difference, assuming he cant manipulate the roster construction, and coaching.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
The Celtics this year had a -5.1 rDRTG which is really special stuff.

The 2018 Celtics which is considered to have similar yet much more offensively raw personnel (although you get a much younger Al Horford who might have been the Celtics 2nd best player this past series), had a -4.7 rDRTG. You could argue the defenses were similar in ability.

Minor quibble about your excellent and thorough post: I think this direct comparison of relative DRTG doesn't help us understand how good the 2022 Celtics are. Obviously defensive ratings change over the season and teams have theirs ups and downs. But this Celtics team had a rare in-season transformation that basically gives us a tale of 2 teams. The 2022 Celtics, despite their -5.1 on the season, have never been that level of defense. They spent the 2021 portion of this season hovering around -2.0 rDRTG but when the new year struck, they've been closer to -8, which puts them on the doorstep of the goat defenses discussion (had they done it all season).

I'm saying this because if Boston was still a -5 defense, I have a harder time picturing them pulling off the bottling up of KD quite like they did.

LesGrossman wrote:

SeattleJazzFan wrote:they go to the finals. this is a no brainer. if he made to the finals with the 18 cavs, he's making with this brooklyn team and kyrie.

…because the context of the conference does not matter, right? Like, if convenient we just assume those Celtics are the same as they were five years ago.

LeBron without help against this opposition would not do anything. They stop him just like they stopped KD, dont fool yourself. He didnt even make the post season with the Lakers twice now, theres absolutely no reason to believe he would have done more. For some reason, LeBron fans enjoy harping on KD right now ,as if a 1st round exit isnt still a lot better than missing the playoffs altogether, but theres remarkably little talk about the context - from Kyrie (did you read he wants to „manage“ the franchise now? And of course he made sure everyone sees he observes ramadan so his miserable performance was for the greater good…) to Simmons to Harden and the price they gave up to get that bum, including the Cavs MVP Jarrett Allen.

The Celtics will probably face the Sixers next - and i dont see them fall for the Nets either, regardless of who leads them - and then the Bucks. After that they may face the reborn Warriors. Its just beyond me how anyone could say this team, with Bron instead of KD, would win a title. Personally i dont think he would have made any difference, assuming he cant manipulate the roster construction, and coaching.

Read the title please....We talk about 2018 LeBron when he was 33 years old and he had no problem to stay healthy,not the 37 old LeBron who struggle big time to stay healthy

2018 LeBron was legendary, no team can stop him, not even the current celtics team...Maybe they win this series, maybe not with 33 years old LeBron, but no way the Nets get swept with 2018 LBJ by an average of 4 points per game with LBJ being awful in 3 of his games...KD had the same problems with the thunder in the playoffs against Memphis in 2013 and 2014 but with the warriors his problems were protected like crazy

Imagine being so mad about KD's awful playoffs series that you attack LBJ without reading the full title of this thread!

jamaalstar21 wrote:I'm saying this because if Boston was still a -5 defense, I have a harder time picturing them pulling off the bottling up of KD quite like they did.

You have a point, but I do want to throw out that -5 defenses are not that common. We have 0-2 of them per year, mostly. In 5 seasons since 2004-2005, we've had 3 guys (and in one, we had 4). There have been three seasons where no team has made that mark. It's an arbitrary cut-off, just because that's the level at which Boston is listed for this season, but I wanted to take a second to note how impressive a -5 defense is.

Maybe they really are a -8 defense, like we've seen once since 04-05. Maybe they're more of a -7 defense, like we've seen five times since then (6, if you round up a -6.9). But even if they aren't, and the overall quality of their defense is exaggerated a little because they were focusing on Durant and selling out to stop him while others were able to get good looks, it's still an overall impressive plateau on which to stand as a team defense. \

Just some food for thought.

for those of you saying the east is tougher now, the celtics defense was so good this year, etc. keep in mind 2018 lebron didn't have Kyrie. that pretty much evens it out - having that second superstar is a big deal.

but let's not overthink it - 2018 LeBron a much better player than 2022 Durant. Brooklyn lost 4 games by an average of 4 points. They win that series with 2018 lebron and you could argue boston is the best team in the east - like i said above, milwaukee would definitely give them all sorts of problems but if they gety by milwaukee, they get to the finals - and honestly probably win against a non-GSW team with curry, klay, green and durant.

jamaalstar21 wrote:

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
The Celtics this year had a -5.1 rDRTG which is really special stuff.

The 2018 Celtics which is considered to have similar yet much more offensively raw personnel (although you get a much younger Al Horford who might have been the Celtics 2nd best player this past series), had a -4.7 rDRTG. You could argue the defenses were similar in ability.

Minor quibble about your excellent and thorough post: I think this direct comparison of relative DRTG doesn't help us understand how good the 2022 Celtics are. Obviously defensive ratings change over the season and teams have theirs ups and downs. But this Celtics team had a rare in-season transformation that basically gives us a tale of 2 teams. The 2022 Celtics, despite their -5.1 on the season, have never been that level of defense. They spent the 2021 portion of this season hovering around -2.0 rDRTG but when the new year struck, they've been closer to -8, which puts them on the doorstep of the goat defenses discussion (had they done it all season).

I'm saying this because if Boston was still a -5 defense, I have a harder time picturing them pulling off the bottling up of KD quite like they did.

For all of Durant's struggles, BKN still managed a 117 ORTG in the series, which would have been +5 in the regular season (higher than any team actually managed for the duration of the season). Now I recognize we basically had two different seasons being played this year under two sets of rules which saw a big jump in league efficiency. Even so, 117 is still above even the best monthly average in the league which was about 115-116.

That being said, BKNs offense wasn't that bad. Their defense just allowed Boston to put up a 122 ORTG (115 in rs), which is the 2nd highest for any playoff team thus far behind GSW's 124 rating. A far bigger issue.

I think its probably worth considering if having Lebron in place of Durant would allow BKN to put more defense on the floor and still manage similar offense to compete with Boston, if BKNs roster even allows for it.

Why are people picking losing in the 1st round as an option? OP didn't say replace KD with LeBron just for the 1st round. With LeBron on the Nets they are definitely not a 7th seed. They are most likely a 3rd or 4th seed. 2018 LeBron was incredibly healthy and played all 82 games.

With a 3rd or 4th seed I think they face the Celtics in the ECF and it would go 6 or 7. 2018 LeBron was simply a better basketball player than KD this year and much healthier to boot.

PaulieWal wrote:Why are people picking losing in the 1st round as an option? OP didn't say replace KD with LeBron just for the 1st round. With LeBron on the Nets they are definitely not a 7th seed. They are most likely a 3rd or 4th seed. 2018 LeBron was incredibly healthy and played all 82 games.

With a 3rd or 4th seed I think they face the Celtics in the ECF and it would go 6 or 7. 2018 LeBron was simply a better basketball player than KD this year and much healthier to boot.

I agree they wouldn't be as low in the standings, but James coasted a lot during that season. I can't see Nets getting as high as 3rd, not with Kyrie missing so many games.

I don't know if they win round 1 but they definitely win two or three games. He will reign the clown Kyrie in and he is a much better passer than Durant so doubling him is not as effective.

70sFan wrote:

PaulieWal wrote:Why are people picking losing in the 1st round as an option? OP didn't say replace KD with LeBron just for the 1st round. With LeBron on the Nets they are definitely not a 7th seed. They are most likely a 3rd or 4th seed. 2018 LeBron was incredibly healthy and played all 82 games.

With a 3rd or 4th seed I think they face the Celtics in the ECF and it would go 6 or 7. 2018 LeBron was simply a better basketball player than KD this year and much healthier to boot.

I agree they wouldn't be as low in the standings, but James coasted a lot during that season. I can't see Nets getting as high as 3rd, not with Kyrie missing so many games.

Yeah, I didn't say they would be the top seed but definitely in the top 4 without a doubt. Also, just a hunch but having Kyrie even if only for 30 games would mean less coasting in the RS IMO.

Also, why can't they get to 3rd? The East is strong this year but the W-L record of a lot of these teams isn't that impressive because all of them went through either bad patches or rough starts. The 2-4 seeds all won 51 games and the 1st seed has 53. I can definitely see them finishing 2nd or 3rd. Not like we got teams this year winning mid 60s or high 50s to get a high seeding.