RealGM

Who was the better player?

Why do this to Jokic?

Little doubt in my mind I would take Jokic over Bird just offensively speaking. I just struggle to value his defense right now, because I feel like he doesn't have the most ideal defensive personnel.

I definitely feel like Jokic had the better season, but if we are talking about better player that is when analysis of Jokic's defense in hypothetical situations matters more. Also Bird injuring his hand doesn't happen in many simulations, so I would expect to see better offensive results out of him. I feel like 85 Bird is probably a similar level player to 84 Bird who I hold in very high regard.

I say Jokic pretty clearly and it’s somewhat close. About half a tier up offensively, think many are familiar with Birds relative lack of resiliency and his last two series were pretty mediocre against good but not great defenses, while Jokic fared pretty damn well against an elite Warriors defense. Jokic also had a better regular season. Defensive impact is interesting, much of the difference can be chalked up to era, Jokic looks better in the clogged 80s lanes and Bird looks worse in a more spaced league. They kinda parallel each other in their respective position. Jokics playoff defense was suspect, though he is guarding maybe the greatest collection of 3pt shooting talent in history.

SNPA wrote:Why do this to Jokic?

Why so incredulous? Jokic would never break his hand in a bar fight during the Finals, I can tell you that.

Bidofo wrote:I say Jokic pretty clearly and it’s somewhat close. About half a tier up offensively, think many are familiar with Birds relative lack of resiliency and his last two series were pretty mediocre against good but not great defenses, while Jokic fared pretty damn well against an elite Warriors defense. Jokic also had a better regular season. Defensive impact is interesting, much of the difference can be chalked up to era, Jokic looks better in the clogged 80s lanes and Bird looks worse in a more spaced league. They kinda parallel each other in their respective position. Jokics playoff defense was suspect, though he is guarding maybe the greatest collection of 3pt shooting talent in history.

SNPA wrote:Why do this to Jokic?

Why so incredulous? Jokic would never break his hand in a bar fight during the Finals, I can tell you that.

Bird is tough as nails. That’s part of what makes him Larry Bird. Respect it.

Under normal circumstances I might side either way, but it's Jokic, pretty clearly. Bird was not 100% that postseason.

SNPA wrote:

Bidofo wrote:I say Jokic pretty clearly and it’s somewhat close. About half a tier up offensively, think many are familiar with Birds relative lack of resiliency and his last two series were pretty mediocre against good but not great defenses, while Jokic fared pretty damn well against an elite Warriors defense. Jokic also had a better regular season. Defensive impact is interesting, much of the difference can be chalked up to era, Jokic looks better in the clogged 80s lanes and Bird looks worse in a more spaced league. They kinda parallel each other in their respective position. Jokics playoff defense was suspect, though he is guarding maybe the greatest collection of 3pt shooting talent in history.

SNPA wrote:Why do this to Jokic?

Why so incredulous? Jokic would never break his hand in a bar fight during the Finals, I can tell you that.

Bird is tough as nails. That’s part of what makes him Larry Bird. Respect it.

Definitely a relevant point in a comparison with notorious softie Nikola Jokic.

Jokic to me, that injury in 1985 playoffs was big and clearly hurt Bird's performance. Pick another year and I might reconsider Larry's chances.

Quick thing I would like to mention:

A quick little arbitrary search on Jokic. 3pt era, dudes posting 25+ ppg and .290+ WS/48. 16 player-seasons over those 43 seasons. 4 from Jordan, 4 from Lebron. One from Steph and Giannis each. 2 each from D-Rob, KD and Jokic.

If you add a +9 OBPM to the criteria:

Jokic joins 3 seasons from Lebron and one from Steph as the only dudes to post 25+ ppg, .290+ WS/48 and +9 OBPM

and if you tweak it to .300+ WS/48, then it's two seasons from Lebron, one season from him and one season from Steph.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Quick thing I would like to mention:

A quick little arbitrary search on Jokic. 3pt era, dudes posting 25+ ppg and .290+ WS/48. 16 player-seasons over those 43 seasons. 4 from Jordan, 4 from Lebron. One from Steph and Giannis each. 2 each from D-Rob, KD and Jokic.

If you add a +9 OBPM to the criteria:

Jokic joins 3 seasons from Lebron and one from Steph as the only dudes to post 25+ ppg, .290+ WS/48 and +9 OBPM

and if you tweak it to .300+ WS/48, then it's two seasons from Lebron, one season from him and one season from Steph.

Now I wonder where you found that?

the jokic vs bird thread in the general board was kind of a ****

people clearly going off larry's legend and ring counting to say he was leagues above jokic and it was a insulting comparision for bird

as bad as old player milkmen bashing can get, the lack of respect current/yet ringless active players get can be as bad

falcolombardi wrote:the jokic vs bird thread in the general board was kind of a ****

people clearly going off larry's legend and ring counting to say he was leagues above jokic and it was a insulting comparision for bird

as bad as old player milkmen bashing can get, the lack of respect current/yet ringless active players get can be as bad

Yeah, there's always resistance when you're looking at an established older legend and a young, up-and-coming player. You see it in the Kobe/Booker thread as well. People do look for every excuse not to appreciate a player. And true enough, the league environments differ and everything like that, but they almost never pause to acknowledge stuff like impact relative to era and all of those other things.

Bird was great. Bird was not perfect, nor has any player ever been. He had his flaws. He injured himself and cost himself some time/efficacy more than once, and he had issues maintaining his scoring in the playoffs (though there is some indication that he still helped drive Boston team offensive efficacy even in that situation). He had some defensive issues, he had some issues finishing around the rim at times because he lacked hops. Even in his 84-86 peak, there were flaws to unearth and it's not unreasonable to look at someone like Jokic, who is doing things Bird never even did in the regular season, and have that single-season discussion. What you ultimately decide is your business, but the notion of shutting down the conversation because it's "disrespectful" to Bird or whatever is just lunacy.

Its hard to judge the mental edge Bird might have in this comparison since we are so far removed from 1985, so I don't really want to consider that.

I was actually thinking about this last night though, Jokic feels like a pretty good indicator of what kind of player Bird would be today. Their offensive and even defensive skillsets just feel so similar. Maybe there's a sort of appearance/physical confirmation bias there but anyways...

To me Bird might be a little quicker and overall a bit more of a shot hunter than Jokic is, probably spending a little more time off ball (most of this is due to the fact Jokic has to be on ball since the team is so devoid of competent dribblers). Jokic is obviously bigger and is probably more physical than Bird ever was on both ends, might even have better handles too, but that partially could be due to era.

Ultimately in a comparison that's this close you almost always got to go with the bigger, more modern player. So I'll lean Jokic slightly here.

For all the criticism Jokic gets for not winning in the playoffs, its not like Bird was some unscaled master there either up to 1985. Bird has probably never had a team as bad as Jokic had this year and this actually might not even be Jokic's worst team since he became a star.

I'm sure if you put Jokic on a team like LAL the last two years in place of AD or a team like Miami he's suddenly looked at differently even if he wasn't as impactful.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Little doubt in my mind I would take Jokic over Bird just offensively speaking. I just struggle to value his defense right now, because I feel like he doesn't have the most ideal defensive personnel.

I definitely feel like Jokic had the better season, but if we are talking about better player that is when analysis of Jokic's defense in hypothetical situations matters more. Also Bird injuring his hand doesn't happen in many simulations, so I would expect to see better offensive results out of him. I feel like 85 Bird is probably a similar level player to 84 Bird who I hold in very high regard.

I'm inclined to disagree somewhat on the bolded. Or if not disagree, offer a different angle. Bird appears to have 3 times injured himself being in places he shouldn't be.

Softball - hand
Bar fight - hand
Manual labor - back.

It's not "likely" but it's not entirely a fluke.

Between that and the effects being uncertain (and Bird I think supposedly being somewhat ambidextrous) ... personally I might give Bird less leeway on the injury - to the extent that I'd factor it though ...

I'm not that into rating individual years and in such contexts dealing with playoff injuries ... there's a range of viable interpretations and opinions (especially depending on the specifics of the question).

RCM88x wrote: probably spending a little more time off ball

Bird was one of the best off-ball guys in league history, he very definitely spent more time off-ball than Jokic, yes.


And as always, let's circle back and look at some stuff.

1985 Bird

28.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.1 tpg, 52.2% FG, 42.7% 3P, 88.2% FT, 22 FGA/g, 1.6 3PA/g, 5.7 FTA/g, league-high 39.5 mpg

PER100
34.3 PTS, 12.6 REB, 7.9 AST, 3.7 TOV

119 ORTG

League-high 26.5 PER, 58.5% TS (108 TS+), league-high 10.5 OWS, league-high .238 WS/48, league-high +6.8 OBPM, league-high +8.7 VORP

Amazing stuff. Lower than Jokic's similar numbers, but whatever, he was a dominant beast and that matches well with the eye test from the time, everyone's memory who was there for it or who was watched the old games, whatever. He was a demon on the court, no question.

Comes in and blows the Cavs out of the water in the first round. 34.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 63.6% TS, 132 ORTG, a Jordan-like 8.9% TOV. Amazing performance.

Pistons time. 40 mpg. 28.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 6.3 apg, 44.8% FG, 14.3% 3P (1/7), 52.0% TS, 9.5% TOV, 116 ORTG.

Okay, seeing some drop. 3pt stuff doesn't matter so much because he wasn't using the shot very much. TOV% helping that ORTG stay up there as that scoring efficiency dropped off heavily, but lots of players have playoff drop. Jokic too, just from a higher starting point.

Philly time. 40 mpg again, 20.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 6.0 apg, 41.9% FG, 33.3% 3P (2/6), 49.6% TS, 15.3% TOV, 99 ORTG

So that's a stank series. As the playoffs wore on, he got worse. This wasn't unusual for Larry. We all know about the bar fight and everything.

Lakers time. 40 mpg again. 23.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 5.0 apg. 44.9% FG, 33.3% 3P (3/9), 52.7% TS, 8.7% TOV, 111 ORTG

And there he is again, with tepid scoring on lowered volume as they lost.

Again, capturing that, he went from a 26.5 PER, 58.5% TS, .238 WS/48, +6.8 OBPM, +8.7 VORP guy in the RS to a 20.9 PER, 53.6% TS, .155 WS/48, +5.2 OBPM, +1.7 VORP guy. Now, of note (and minding the weaknesses in any of these stats), +5.2 OBPM still evidences some pretty decent lift, and that VORP led the playoffs. So whilst his scoring dipped off (and in particular in that one series against Philly) and he didn't stun in the last two rounds... they did MAKE the Finals and go to six with the Lakers (who were en route to their third title in six seasons).

I just think Jokic is getting a lot of crap for not getting as far while having less around him than Bird did. DJ, Parish, Ainge, McHale et al was a lot better than Denver's injury-addled roster.

And remember, Jokic still put 31, 13.2 and 5.8 on the Warriors, shot 57.5% from the floor, put a 64.3% TS on them, and a 119 ORTG. He had a very good series, even experiencing some drop.

Just some food for thought.

tsherkin wrote:

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Quick thing I would like to mention:

A quick little arbitrary search on Jokic. 3pt era, dudes posting 25+ ppg and .290+ WS/48. 16 player-seasons over those 43 seasons. 4 from Jordan, 4 from Lebron. One from Steph and Giannis each. 2 each from D-Rob, KD and Jokic.

If you add a +9 OBPM to the criteria:

Jokic joins 3 seasons from Lebron and one from Steph as the only dudes to post 25+ ppg, .290+ WS/48 and +9 OBPM

and if you tweak it to .300+ WS/48, then it's two seasons from Lebron, one season from him and one season from Steph.

Now I wonder where you found that?

Stathead

Are you on the Thibking Basketball Discord? Shoutout to you if you are and also are the one who who did the research!

Owly wrote:

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Little doubt in my mind I would take Jokic over Bird just offensively speaking. I just struggle to value his defense right now, because I feel like he doesn't have the most ideal defensive personnel.

I definitely feel like Jokic had the better season, but if we are talking about better player that is when analysis of Jokic's defense in hypothetical situations matters more. Also Bird injuring his hand doesn't happen in many simulations, so I would expect to see better offensive results out of him. I feel like 85 Bird is probably a similar level player to 84 Bird who I hold in very high regard.

I'm inclined to disagree somewhat on the bolded. Or if not disagree, offer a different angle. Bird appears to have 3 times injured himself being in places he shouldn't be.

Softball - hand
Bar fight - hand
Manual labor - back.

It's not "likely" but it's not entirely a fluke.

Between that and the effects being uncertain (and Bird I think supposedly being somewhat ambidextrous) ... personally I might give Bird less leeway on the injury - to the extent that I'd factor it though ...

I'm not that into rating individual years and in such contexts dealing with playoff injuries ... there's a range of viable interpretations and opinions (especially depending on the specifics of the question).

Interesting point. I didn't know about the softball injury I don't believe.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:

tsherkin wrote:

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Quick thing I would like to mention:

A quick little arbitrary search on Jokic. 3pt era, dudes posting 25+ ppg and .290+ WS/48. 16 player-seasons over those 43 seasons. 4 from Jordan, 4 from Lebron. One from Steph and Giannis each. 2 each from D-Rob, KD and Jokic.

If you add a +9 OBPM to the criteria:

Jokic joins 3 seasons from Lebron and one from Steph as the only dudes to post 25+ ppg, .290+ WS/48 and +9 OBPM

and if you tweak it to .300+ WS/48, then it's two seasons from Lebron, one season from him and one season from Steph.

Now I wonder where you found that?

Stathead

Are you on the Thibking Basketball Discord? Shoutout to you if you are and also are the one who who did the research!

Yep, that's what I posted

EDIT: I am Warrax on the Thinking Basketball Discord. Glad you found it useful!

I think 1985 Bird would help my team be more title contenders than 2022 Jokic in general. I think

JordansBulls wrote:I think 1985 Bird would help my team be more title contenders than 2022 Jokic in general. I think

What about him do you think would be more helpful?