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i am thinking about how 2022 feels like a potential swan song for the generation of 2010's stars

so many of these guys that were the main actors of the 2010's have started to decline out of their primes (harden) or are close to retirement (lebron)

or feel like they may be in their last star runs for a ring (curry, paul)

what other "generational transition" years have been in the league?

i generally look at basketball as a sport where superstars peak between their mid 20's and early 30's and in the middle of their 30's fall by the side to younger talent, but is clear thst patter doesnt always hold

have there been generations who were replaced very quickly at the top because the younger stars were a lot more talented?

or ones where a generation of superstars got to be at the top unusually long because the players 3-4 years below in age were not good enough to take their place?

Maybe...

All I know is

Luka has opponent adjusted averages of 34/9/10 per 75 on +2.7 rTS% the last 3 years in the PS.

The Mavericks have a +7.2 rORTG with Luka on the court.

Beautiful man, I have tears in my eyes, as I type this.

I’m ready for the big man era, or the era of defense led by Davis, Embiid, Jokic, Gobert, Adebayo, Antetokounmpo, Ayton and possibly Zion.

The perimeter players era is coming to a close.

I expect Curry to contend for a few more years as a superstar at least, and even if Paul declines the rest of the Suns can be good enough to be relevant. I wouldn't be surprised by Harden bounce back season especially if they hire D'Antoni. Durant is stuck in a bad situation and I predict Lebron hits the cliff next year.

Good call, were there any teens superstars who deserved MVP considered this year?

I think you can make a good case that 2022 will go down like 2011, with most of the old generation of superstars fading from relevance. That year most of the guys who defined the aughts dropped off and never played a major role again. Dirk was like a super charged Paul and he fell off it in 2012.



And I could easily see the Warriors in the 20s playing the role the Spurs played in the teens.

sp6r=underrated wrote:Good call, were there any teens superstars who deserved MVP considered this year?

I think you can make a good case that 2022 will go down like 2011, with most of the old generation of superstars fading from relevance. That year most of the guys who defined the aughts dropped off and never played a major role again. Dirk was like a super charged Paul and he fell off it in 2012.



And I could easily see the Warriors in the 20s playing the role the Spurs played in the teens.

durant and curry actually were seen as the main contenders for mvp in december, curry was the favorite for a while

although steph slumped in 2022 and durant got injured which coincided with jokic, embiid and giannis becoming (correctly) the consensus 3-horse (fittingly for jokic win)race, with some "best record textualists" arguing for booker

2011 as the last hurra of a lot of players is a good pick, in hindsight it was arguably the season kobe started to leave his prime too, and arguably last prime year for wade

falcolombardi wrote:

sp6r=underrated wrote:Good call, were there any teens superstars who deserved MVP considered this year?

I think you can make a good case that 2022 will go down like 2011, with most of the old generation of superstars fading from relevance. That year most of the guys who defined the aughts dropped off and never played a major role again. Dirk was like a super charged Paul and he fell off it in 2012.



And I could easily see the Warriors in the 20s playing the role the Spurs played in the teens.

durant and curry actually were seen as the main contenders for mvp in december, curry was the favorite for a while

although steph slumped in 2022 and durant got injured which coincided with jokic, embiid and giannis becoming (correctly) the consensus 3-horse (fittingly for jokic win)race, with some "best record textualists" arguing for booker

2011 as the last hurra of a lot of players is a good pick, in hindsight it was arguably the season kobe started to leave his prime too, and arguably last prime year for wade

Yes, I agree... I'd wait until next year to make a definitive statement like that.

LeBron, Steph, Harden and Durant could easily all have healthy bounceback years next year if things break right for them. I personally think if LeBron had a supporting cast around him as good as the 2020 or healthy 2021 Lakers he'd still be in contention for best player in the league this year.

As for 2011, I felt like it wasn't just a one year transition, more like 2011-13 in general was a transition phase.

Duncan had the arguably worst year of his career (before his retirement season that is). Nash was still pretty good but the Suns ceased to be relevant again from 2011 onwards. KG was on the downturn (he had a resurgence in 2012 but other than that the trend continued). Kobe was obviously out of his prime too.

It was a weird stretch though because you didn't have the young talents rising in a corresponding manner. It basically left us with 2012 and 2013 being kinda barren looking years. You had LeBron/Durant/CP3 at the top of the league and then quite a big drop off.

Things started turning around in 2014, when Harden, Westbrook, Griffin and Curry entered the scene as legitimate top 5 contenders, and then in 2015 the new generation took over completely (with LeBron/CP3 still in the mix obviously).

Dr Positivity wrote:I expect Curry to contend for a few more years as a superstar at least, and even if Paul declines the rest of the Suns can be good enough to be relevant. I wouldn't be surprised by Harden bounce back season especially if they hire D'Antoni. Durant is stuck in a bad situation and I predict Lebron hits the cliff next year.

Says increasingly nervous man for the 8th time since 2015

ardee wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:I expect Curry to contend for a few more years as a superstar at least, and even if Paul declines the rest of the Suns can be good enough to be relevant. I wouldn't be surprised by Harden bounce back season especially if they hire D'Antoni. Durant is stuck in a bad situation and I predict Lebron hits the cliff next year.

Says increasingly nervous man for the 8th time since 2015

gotta be right eventually!

I'd say the 80s ended after Perkins shot in Game 1 of the 1991 Finals. From there, Bulls wins 4 straights vs LA. Magic has to retire due to HIV and LA misses the playoffs. Bird plays 1 more injury-riddled year. Moses is hanging around as a shell of himself to get some, much deserved, retirement checks.

ardee wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:I expect Curry to contend for a few more years as a superstar at least, and even if Paul declines the rest of the Suns can be good enough to be relevant. I wouldn't be surprised by Harden bounce back season especially if they hire D'Antoni. Durant is stuck in a bad situation and I predict Lebron hits the cliff next year.

Says increasingly nervous man for the 8th time since 2015

Lebron's play at this age is unprecedented and is excellent even not taking into account age when he's on the court but 2022 was the third time in four years his body required him to miss significant time. That's aging too.

I see the last several generations as this, roughly:

95-98: Duncan, KG, Kobe, Dirk, Vince, TMac, AI, Nash, ect

99-02: Yao Ming, Stoudemire, Tony Parker, Manu, Gasol, Artest, ect

03-06: Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, CP3, Dwight Howard, Bosh, Rondo, ect

07-11: KD, Steph, Westbrook, Harden,Rose, Kawhi, Kyrie, ect

12-16: Giannis, AD, Jokic, Booker, Embiid, Dame, Gobert, Towns, ect

17-19: Luka, Tatum, Trae, Ja, ect

The 95-98 class came in on the heels of the injury plagued 91-94 class which allowed them to hit the ground running. This generation pretty much took over the league by 2000. Then they were fortunate to be followed by an extremely weak 99-02 class and the top heavy 03-06 class. This allowed the 95-98 class dominate the entire 00s. This class had a 10 year run at the top of the league.

The 03-06 generation were fortunate themselves to come in behind the weak 99-02 class. This allowed them to begin competing for control of the league within the first couple of years. However they were competing with the historically great 95-98 class in their primes. So it actually took all the way until 2011/12 for the 03-06 class to fully take over the league. Someone above mentioned that 12 and 13 were barren years. That because the 99-02 class was so weak and the 03-06 class was so top heavy. On top of that half the 03-06 class teamed up.

However, by 2014 the 03-06 class had already lost control of the league as Wade, Bosh, Howard, Carmelo and others began to breakdown prematurely. They were also being challenged by a young but exceptionally strong 07-11 class. So by 2015 they had already lost control of the league. The 07-11 class had a strong run up until the last year or two.

I think this year the 12-16 class has officially taken control of the league. I don't expect them to hold the reigns for very long as the 17-19 class is coming on strong already.

I think transition periods are often the most exciting as we get new narratives, new rivalries, new hierarchies, ect. The younger guys are hungry with something to prove where as the older established guys are trying to hold on. Makes for great drama.

Stalwart wrote:I see the last several generations as this, roughly:

95-98: Duncan, KG, Kobe, Dirk, Vince, TMac, AI, Nash, ect

99-02: Yao Ming, Stoudemire, Tony Parker, Manu, Gasol, Artest, ect

03-06: Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, CP3, Dwight Howard, Bosh, Rondo, ect

07-11: KD, Steph, Westbrook, Harden,Rose, Kawhi, Kyrie, ect

12-16: Giannis, AD, Jokic, Booker, Embiid, Dame, Gobert, Towns, ect

17-19: Luka, Tatum, Trae, Ja, ect

The 95-98 class came in on the heels of the injury plagued 91-94 class which allowed them to hit the ground running. This generation pretty much took over the league by 2000. Then they were fortunate to be followed by an extremely weak 99-02 class and the top heavy 03-06 class. This allowed the 95-98 class dominate the entire 00s. This class had a 10 year run at the top of the league.

The 03-06 generation were fortunate themselves to come in behind the weak 99-02 class. This allowed them to begin competing for control of the league within the first couple of years. However they were competing with the historically great 95-98 class in their primes. So it actually took all the way until 2011/12 for the 03-06 class to fully take over the league. Someone above mentioned that 12 and 13 were barren years. That because the 99-02 class was so weak and the 03-06 class was so top heavy. On top of that half the 03-06 class teamed up.

However, by 2014 the 03-06 class had already lost control of the league as Wade, Bosh, Howard, Carmelo and others began to breakdown prematurely. They were also being challenged by a young but exceptionally strong 07-11 class. So by 2015 they had already lost control of the league. The 07-11 class had a strong run up until the last year or two.

I think this year the 12-16 class has officially taken control of the league. I don't expect them to hold the reigns for very long as the 17-19 class is coming on strong already.

I think transition periods are often the most exciting as we get new narratives, new rivalries, new hierarchies, ect. The younger guys are hungry with something to prove where as the older established guys are trying to hold on. Makes for great drama.

Great post.

When you break it down like that it makes a lot of sense as to why certain stretches felt like they were bereft of talent and others felt like they were loaded.