Luka/Harden comparisons

[Peregrine01]

These two have more similar play styles than any other pair of players and have been compared a ton. I've been skeptical of this kind of approach and have felt vindicated as Harden's teams routinely came up short in the playoffs. But what Luka is doing has forced me to revaluate former notions I've had on how successful an approach like this can be.

Is this version of Luka just that much better at this than peak Harden? On the face of it, it doesn't seem like there should be that much difference. Harden was a more efficient scorer with an even wider gap in the regular season but Luka just seems to have far more consistency in the playoffs despite the efficiency gap. He also seems to have that intangible IT factor that rises to the occasion while Harden way too often wilts. What do you think are the key differences that explains why Luka's teams seem to consistently outperform expectations in the playoffs while Harden's teams don't?

[Max123]

These two have more similar play styles than any other pair of players and have been compared a ton. I've been skeptical of this kind of approach and have felt vindicated as Harden's teams routinely came up short in the playoffs. But what Luka is doing has forced me to revaluate former notions I've had on how successful an approach like this can be.

Is this version of Luka just that much better at this than peak Harden? On the face of it, it doesn't seem like there should be that much difference. Harden was a more efficient scorer with an even wider gap in the regular season but Luka just seems to have far more consistency in the playoffs despite the efficiency gap. He also seems to have that intangible IT factor that rises to the occasion while Harden way too often wilts. What do you think are the key differences that explains why Luka's teams seem to consistently outperform expectations in the playoffs while Harden's teams don't?

Ignoring the actual question I want to point out that although Harden's teams routinely did come up short in the playoffs I think they were some of the best teams of this decade/century (especially the 17-18 team) given that they had to go up against arguably the greatest team of all time and did pretty damn well.

[eminence]

Harden had his own successes over the years as well, I'm not really seeing a ton of reason to force a big revaluation of the playstyle based off Lukas first upset. All feels premature and like in moment legend building.

[Homer38]

Luka in the playoffs is much better than Peak Harden,win or loses and this is not a debate at this point

[CKRT]

I think Harden growing up not being 'the scoring guy' we likely all think of him as negatively influenced his mental approach to the game, at least in the context of him being your best player. I think he has too strong of a deferring/playmaking mindset that leads to him taking a big step back in the playoffs when defenses start to lock in and take away the ideal shots (3s/rim) that Harden is aiming to take so he just takes less shots in general because he's trying to take the best shot possible.

[Bad Gatorade]

Hmm.

Even though there are a lot of similarities between the two, I feel like there are definitely points of differentiation between the two -

* Although Harden has improved here, Harden is more reliant on the 'Morey zones' than Luka - shooting at the rim + from 3. A good defence is going to dissuade shots at the rim, so Harden's layup range shooting + foul baiting probably "hurt" his playoff efficiency more than they would Luka, who is still good from there, but has a really, really nice game just outside of those zones.

* Luka's 3 pointer hasn't fallen cold in the playoffs the way it has for Harden - not sure if it's random chance, fatigue, or whatever, but this has happened to Harden.

* I think Harden is a great passer, with some excellent timing, but Luka seems more naturally "brilliant" there. I.e. often, Harden seems to make a well timed, difficult pass that I can still spot whilst sitting at home, whereas Luka manages to throw passes that I simply cannot telegraph. Harden can be somewhat one-sided with his passing, and once teams became privy to this, it seems like his assists dropped a decent amount in the postseason.

* I think that Luka has more counters in his arsenal than Harden does. Harden has some elite isolation plays in his arsenal, but Luka seems like when he's defended, he can counter that play... and if they counter that, then he has another counter. It feels like Harden might have better initial moves, but Luka has better subsequent moves, which probably helps in the playoffs.

Harden is still really good though, and I think we sometimes forget that he has faced a litany of tough defences with a heliocentric approach. He's done very well, IMO. On the whole though, I feel like Luka has a dose of natural brilliance and resilience that's not quite as prevalent in Harden's game.

[Bergmaniac]

Being significantly taller helps a lot against tough playoff defences.

Also, I don't think Harden is a choker, but Luka just seems one of those very rare players who get better with more pressure and just love the big moments. He was dominant in the Euroleague's biggest games as a teen and he's always delivering for his national team at the biggest stage.

[MartinToVaught]

Harden should never be mentioned in the same sentence as Luka. Luka is a legitimate superstar who can stand on his own. Harden is borderline useless without the BS regular-season officiating that makes it impossible for other teams to guard him (and he's still looked washed the last couple years even with that officiating). Luka is a ruthless competitor. Harden is a quitter who straight up doesn't care about basketball, only about his ego.

Just because they play in superficially similar systems - which is by necessity in Luka's case since he's never had a great supporting cast - doesn't mean they're similar players. I think the actual takeaway here is that a player as great as Luka can make any system look good. I firmly believe that if Luka had a legit second star, he would have no problem shifting towards a more team-oriented game. Harden has had multiple second stars over the years and has quit on every single one of them and played the same selfish brand of basketball where he mentally checks out whenever he doesn't have the ball.

[70sFan]

Hmm.

Even though there are a lot of similarities between the two, I feel like there are definitely points of differentiation between the two -

* Although Harden has improved here, Harden is more reliant on the 'Morey zones' than Luka - shooting at the rim + from 3. A good defence is going to dissuade shots at the rim, so Harden's layup range shooting + foul baiting probably "hurt" his playoff efficiency more than they would Luka, who is still good from there, but has a really, really nice game just outside of those zones.

* Luka's 3 pointer hasn't fallen cold in the playoffs the way it has for Harden - not sure if it's random chance, fatigue, or whatever, but this has happened to Harden.

* I think Harden is a great passer, with some excellent timing, but Luka seems more naturally "brilliant" there. I.e. often, Harden seems to make a well timed, difficult pass that I can still spot whilst sitting at home, whereas Luka manages to throw passes that I simply cannot telegraph. Harden can be somewhat one-sided with his passing, and once teams became privy to this, it seems like his assists dropped a decent amount in the postseason.

* I think that Luka has more counters in his arsenal than Harden does. Harden has some elite isolation plays in his arsenal, but Luka seems like when he's defended, he can counter that play... and if they counter that, then he has another counter. It feels like Harden might have better initial moves, but Luka has better subsequent moves, which probably helps in the playoffs.

Harden is still really good though, and I think we sometimes forget that he has faced a litany of tough defences with a heliocentric approach. He's done very well, IMO. On the whole though, I feel like Luka has a dose of natural brilliance and resilience that's not quite as prevalent in Harden's game.

Wanted to post the same thing, but you nailed it really nicely here!

[70sFan]

Harden should never be mentioned in the same sentence as Luka. Luka is a legitimate superstar who can stand on his own. Harden is borderline useless without the BS regular-season officiating that makes it impossible for other teams to guard him (and he's still looked washed the last couple years even with that officiating). Luka is a ruthless competitor. Harden is a quitter who straight up doesn't care about basketball, only about his ego.

Bolded parts are blatant trolling and such takes shouldn't be a part of PC Board.

[MartinToVaught]

Harden should never be mentioned in the same sentence as Luka. Luka is a legitimate superstar who can stand on his own. Harden is borderline useless without the BS regular-season officiating that makes it impossible for other teams to guard him (and he's still looked washed the last couple years even with that officiating). Luka is a ruthless competitor. Harden is a quitter who straight up doesn't care about basketball, only about his ego.

Bolded parts are blatant trolling and such takes shouldn't be a part of PC Board.

How is it "blatant trolling" to state facts about Harden's career? Harden has quit on two different teams in the span of a year and has never cared enough to improve his diet/conditioning, develop an off-ball game, wean himself off the free throws, work on his defense, etc. despite those issues costing him every season. If he cared about basketball, he would be furious about the legacy he has and would do everything in his power to try to change it. Do you see him doing that? Because I haven't seen it.

He gets exposed every year in the playoffs whenever the whistles stop coming as cheaply as they do in the regular season. His performances in elimination games are abysmal. Are we supposed to ignore all these glaring flaws because his advanced stats look nice in the regular season without context?

I still maintain that Luka and Harden are on different stratospheres as players and should not be compared to each other.

[agentofatlas]

Harden never really had that bully ball back to the basket game that Luka shown in the playoffs.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Doncic is as much like a mediocre defense Lebron at this point as Harden. I prefer Doncic game inside the arc although I will say in the bigger sample Harden in his prime was better from 3pt line. Overall Doncic seems to have more natural instincts while Harden plays like someone who read the NBA textbook really hard to maximize the best places to shoot from. I'm guessing his real life intelligence and analytical skills are high and I'd be interested to see how he does if he goes in media in his post playing career, but at some point there is diminishing returns to approaching the game like a baseball player looking at a chart of hundreds of his swings and figuring out which areas of the plate to swing at, compared to a more instinctual approach. Despite his conditioning coming and going I feel Harden is an overachiever compared to his talent level.

[Texas Chuck]

I think Bad Gatorade covered this really well, but I think the other key difference is that Harden's teammates have mostly "accepted" him. Like they realize how brilliant he is offensively and almost begrudgingly play for him, but we've seen in big games where the team commitment level seems to wane and I always wonder if part of that is related to Harden and how his teammates feel about him. Like this is hard and this guy isn't pulling his weight defensively and I only get the ball as a last resort. Do I really want to defend that extra second, move off ball a little harder, dive on the floor?

With Luka, he's just as ball dominant, also can be a defensive liability, has to be frustrating when he's constantly on the refs. But other than KP, its been obvious that every teammate has his back and is willing to play hard to the dying second behind him. He clearly works at building relationships, he shares credit like its his full-time job, and he leaves zero doubt at any time that he is there to win.

Some guys are good enough, this doesn't really matter. See Jordan, Michael as exhibit A. But I think its a very underrated part of why Russell and Duncan and Magic managed such sustained success. I had real concerns about young Luka in this regard because of his pre-existing stardom, his flashy cars, his love of the spotlight, etc... But dude is a team guy.

[parsnips33]

I'm surprised nobody's brought up post game as a big differentiating factor between the two. I think it gives Luka a whole new dimension offensively that Harden never really went to at all

[LAL1947]

Luka has some Harden/Lebron heliocentric tendencies. We also have to credit Harden for the step-back three that Luka also uses. The only similarity he has with Lebron is that he's a big player with great ability to distribute the ball.

I see more of Kobe's offensive abilities (footwork, post-moves, fakes, the way he drives) in Luka's game than either Harden/Lebron's... all of which gives him more ability to react when one move is countered or breaks down.

[MartinToVaught]

I think Bad Gatorade covered this really well, but I think the other key difference is that Harden's teammates have mostly "accepted" him. Like they realize how brilliant he is offensively and almost begrudgingly play for him, but we've seen in big games where the team commitment level seems to wane and I always wonder if part of that is related to Harden and how his teammates feel about him. Like this is hard and this guy isn't pulling his weight defensively and I only get the ball as a last resort. Do I really want to defend that extra second, move off ball a little harder, dive on the floor?

What's particularly glaring about Harden is what happens when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. He just stands there and watches the game, waiting for his next iso. That would wear on me as a second star because it basically sends the message that Harden expects you to simultaneously do all the work and make all the sacrifices for him while he does whatever he wants. It's no surprise that he's never been able to get along with any other star he's played with.

[Peregrine01]

Hmm.

Even though there are a lot of similarities between the two, I feel like there are definitely points of differentiation between the two -

* Although Harden has improved here, Harden is more reliant on the 'Morey zones' than Luka - shooting at the rim + from 3. A good defence is going to dissuade shots at the rim, so Harden's layup range shooting + foul baiting probably "hurt" his playoff efficiency more than they would Luka, who is still good from there, but has a really, really nice game just outside of those zones.

* Luka's 3 pointer hasn't fallen cold in the playoffs the way it has for Harden - not sure if it's random chance, fatigue, or whatever, but this has happened to Harden.

* I think Harden is a great passer, with some excellent timing, but Luka seems more naturally "brilliant" there. I.e. often, Harden seems to make a well timed, difficult pass that I can still spot whilst sitting at home, whereas Luka manages to throw passes that I simply cannot telegraph. Harden can be somewhat one-sided with his passing, and once teams became privy to this, it seems like his assists dropped a decent amount in the postseason.

* I think that Luka has more counters in his arsenal than Harden does. Harden has some elite isolation plays in his arsenal, but Luka seems like when he's defended, he can counter that play... and if they counter that, then he has another counter. It feels like Harden might have better initial moves, but Luka has better subsequent moves, which probably helps in the playoffs.

Harden is still really good though, and I think we sometimes forget that he has faced a litany of tough defences with a heliocentric approach. He's done very well, IMO. On the whole though, I feel like Luka has a dose of natural brilliance and resilience that's not quite as prevalent in Harden's game.

The stuff about the counters is very true and I think may be the key thing here. With Harden I think he got so used to the free throw line parade and teams not being able to get physical with him and dropping 60 on the Magic in the regular season that when the playoffs come along and it becomes a completely different sport altogether, the contrast is so stark that he can't adjust. Too many times, he's looked completely bewildered in tight moments in the playoffs like he doesn't even know what else to do.

Luka grew up in the Euroleague that allowed a lot more physicality and was forced to work on counters from a very young age. He never looks uncomfortable in the playoffs whereas Harden frequently does and reacts to it by disappearing.

[70sFan]

How is it "blatant trolling" to state facts about Harden's career?

What fact? That he is useless in playoffs? He anchored his team to two WCF appeariances. He averages 23/6/6 in his postseason career. How is that useless?

Harden has quit on two different teams in the span of a year and has never cared enough to improve his diet/conditioning, develop an off-ball game, wean himself off the free throws, work on his defense, etc. despite those issues costing him every season. If he cared about basketball, he would be furious about the legacy he has and would do everything in his power to try to change it. Do you see him doing that? Because I haven't seen it.

He quit one team and it was caused by Kyrie drama. I'm not going to act like Harden is a great leader, but you don't have to portrait him in the worst light possible.

Harden worked harder on his skills development than any offensive superstar. I would also like him to be better defender, but it's not only about effort - he had clear limitations on that end even when he tried and he did try in 2018-20 period in playoffs.

He gets exposed every year in the playoffs whenever the whistles stop coming as cheaply as they do in the regular season. His performances in elimination games are abysmal. Are we supposed to ignore all these glaring flaws because his advanced stats look nice in the regular season without context?

He had some bad moments and wasn't the most resiliant player ever, but I remember him playing extremely well down the stretch in 2019 and 2020 playoffs, his team just wasn't good enough.

Harden wasn't bad in playoffs at his peak in 2018-20. He didn't replicate his absurd RS stats and he couldn't win it all, but that doesn't make him "exposed" or "useless". He had clear limitations in his game but these limitations stopped him from being top 20 player ever, not turned him into liability.

You do it all the time - Harden is useless, Paul is a choker... That's the level of insidehoops at best.

[The-Power]

I think Harden growing up not being 'the scoring guy' we likely all think of him as negatively influenced his mental approach to the game, at least in the context of him being your best player. I think he has too strong of a deferring/playmaking mindset that leads to him taking a big step back in the playoffs when defenses start to lock in and take away the ideal shots (3s/rim) that Harden is aiming to take so he just takes less shots in general because he's trying to take the best shot possible.

That's not really borne out in the data, though.

His USG% in the RS between 2015 and 2019: 31.3, 32.5, 34.2, 36.1, 40.5, 36.3
His USG% in the PS between 2015 and 2019: 29.5, 31.1, 35.2, 36.7, 37.1, 32.4

Slightly below RS levels in the PS but still extremely high overall and his TSA remain at incredibly high levels. By all accounts, prime Harden hasn't actively deferred to anyone or taken significantly fewer shots in the playoffs. There certainly isn't any evidence to argue that prime Harden hasn't had the mindset of a go-to scorer across both RS and PS.