RealGM

Peak only how would you rank them from 1-4?

i think if they are gonna be my team best offensive player or my team offense engine (aka the guy around who to build the offense)

butler would be my best pick, then george/tatum then pippen

if i have another great offensive player i can build around i may move pippen to first amd consider tatum and george over butler but i think i would keep butler at second for his playmaking

falcolombardi wrote:i think if they are gonna be my team best offensive player or my team offense engine (aka the guy around who to build the offense)

butler would be my best pick, then george/tatum then pippen

I would definitely put Tatum over George. Pandemic Pete looms large. I like players who show mental toughness.

One could also make the argument that Tatum should be ahead of Butler, but I think you've got it right. I would choose Butler here because of his ability to make the players around him better in a way that I haven't really seen from Tatum. Butler can score 5 in a game during the regular season, but dish out 11 assists, rebound well, and play great defense as two other players go off for 25 apiece.

If i have another great offensive player i can build around i may move pippen to first amd consider tatum and george over butler but i think i would keep butler at second for his playmaking

I would move Pippen to first, for sure. I would probably keep Butler at 2 because of his playmaking and willingness to defer. As for George vs. Tatum, I like Tatum better in almost every situation, including this one. Not a big Paul George guy...

I feel like I would rather have Butler or Tatum over Pippen in most or all scenarios. I think they're going to add a lot more value on offense even as #2 guys and both are obviously good defenders. And then Pippen over PG, I think there are theoretically arguments for taking PG but the playoff stuff is just so brutal.

i thinl there may be some overreaction to 2020 paul george

he had better performances in 2021, the indiana years amd the okc years

falcolombardi wrote:i thinl there may be some overreaction to 2020 paul george

he had better performances in 2021, the indiana years amd the okc years

the OKC years weren't exactly great from a postseason point of view. there's a reason the whole Playoff P thing got started there.

he was better in 2021 though, that is true

Jimmy > PG13 > Tatum > Pippen in that order

1 year peaks

Butler (22) > Pippen (95) > PG13 (19) > Tatum (22)

Once you move into 3+ year peaks/primes I think Pippen really pulls away from the Butler, PG13 and Tatum respectively.

Pippen
Butler
George
Tatum


I might consider Butler over Pippen

Jimmy
Pg13
Tatum
Pippen

Pippen
Butler
Tatum
George

Very close

They all are extremely close and in such situations, I prefer to go with extended peaks over one year outliers:

1. 1993-95 Scottie Pippen
2. 2017-19 Paul George
3. 2020-22 Jimmy Butler
4. 2019-22 Jayson Tatum

Using longer peaks definitely hurts Tatum in this comparison, because he's still young and any pre-2022 season just isn't close to that level. Butler has to be lower, because of missed games in RS.

If I want to pick them for a single postseason run, I'd go with different order:

1. Jimmy Butler
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Paul George

Again, not a huge gap between them.

70sFan wrote:They all are extremely close and in such situations, I prefer to go with extended peaks over one year outliers:

1. 1993-95 Scottie Pippen
2. 2017-19 Paul George
3. 2020-22 Jimmy Butler
4. 2019-22 Jayson Tatum

Using longer peaks definitely hurts Tatum in this comparison, because he's still young and any pre-2022 season just isn't close to that level. Butler has to be lower, because of missed games in RS.

If I want to pick them for a single postseason run, I'd go with different order:

1. Jimmy Butler
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Paul George

Again, not a huge gap between them.

RS:
Paul George (2017-19): 231 G | 25/7/4 | 20.7 PER | .159 WS/48 | 4.4 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 167 G | 21/7/6 | 24.5 PER | .234 WS/48 | 6.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 232 G | 21/8/6 | 21.6 PER | .170 WS/48 | 6.3 BPM

PS:
Paul George (2017-19): 15 G | 27/8/4 | 17.7 PER | .089 WS/48 | 2.8 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 42 G | 24/7/6 | 24.8 PER | .214 WS/48 | 7.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 39 G | 20/8/5 | 18.8 PER | .116 WS/48 | 3.8 BPM

How is this not clearly Jimmy? Not as available as the others during the regular season but clearly a better playoff performer than both, even including Butler outlier 2021 playoffs when he came off a shortened season w/ injuries.

rate_ wrote:

70sFan wrote:They all are extremely close and in such situations, I prefer to go with extended peaks over one year outliers:

1. 1993-95 Scottie Pippen
2. 2017-19 Paul George
3. 2020-22 Jimmy Butler
4. 2019-22 Jayson Tatum

Using longer peaks definitely hurts Tatum in this comparison, because he's still young and any pre-2022 season just isn't close to that level. Butler has to be lower, because of missed games in RS.

If I want to pick them for a single postseason run, I'd go with different order:

1. Jimmy Butler
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Paul George

Again, not a huge gap between them.

RS:
Paul George (2017-19): 231 G | 25/7/4 | 20.7 PER | .159 WS/48 | 4.4 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 167 G | 21/7/6 | 24.5 PER | .234 WS/48 | 6.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 232 G | 21/8/6 | 21.6 PER | .170 WS/48 | 6.3 BPM

PS:
Paul George (2017-19): 15 G | 27/8/4 | 17.7 PER | .089 WS/48 | 2.8 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 42 G | 24/7/6 | 24.8 PER | .214 WS/48 | 7.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 39 G | 20/8/5 | 18.8 PER | .116 WS/48 | 3.8 BPM

How is this not clearly Jimmy? Not as available as the others during the regular season but clearly a better playoff performer than both, even including Butler outlier 2021 playoffs when he came off a shortened season w/ injuries.

Butler missed a lot of games during that period, that could be huge in most circumstances. He was lucky that they Heat could still play through that, most teams would struggle a lot with the best player missing 30 games per season.

70sFan wrote:

rate_ wrote:

70sFan wrote:They all are extremely close and in such situations, I prefer to go with extended peaks over one year outliers:

1. 1993-95 Scottie Pippen
2. 2017-19 Paul George
3. 2020-22 Jimmy Butler
4. 2019-22 Jayson Tatum

Using longer peaks definitely hurts Tatum in this comparison, because he's still young and any pre-2022 season just isn't close to that level. Butler has to be lower, because of missed games in RS.

If I want to pick them for a single postseason run, I'd go with different order:

1. Jimmy Butler
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Paul George

Again, not a huge gap between them.

RS:
Paul George (2017-19): 231 G | 25/7/4 | 20.7 PER | .159 WS/48 | 4.4 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 167 G | 21/7/6 | 24.5 PER | .234 WS/48 | 6.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 232 G | 21/8/6 | 21.6 PER | .170 WS/48 | 6.3 BPM

PS:
Paul George (2017-19): 15 G | 27/8/4 | 17.7 PER | .089 WS/48 | 2.8 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 42 G | 24/7/6 | 24.8 PER | .214 WS/48 | 7.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 39 G | 20/8/5 | 18.8 PER | .116 WS/48 | 3.8 BPM

How is this not clearly Jimmy? Not as available as the others during the regular season but clearly a better playoff performer than both, even including Butler outlier 2021 playoffs when he came off a shortened season w/ injuries.

Butler missed a lot of games during that period, that could be huge in most circumstances. He was lucky that they Heat could still play through that, most teams would struggle a lot with the best player missing 30 games per season.

Butler missed 25, 20 and 15 games [Average of 20 per season].

Colbinii wrote:

70sFan wrote:

rate_ wrote:RS:
Paul George (2017-19): 231 G | 25/7/4 | 20.7 PER | .159 WS/48 | 4.4 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 167 G | 21/7/6 | 24.5 PER | .234 WS/48 | 6.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 232 G | 21/8/6 | 21.6 PER | .170 WS/48 | 6.3 BPM

PS:
Paul George (2017-19): 15 G | 27/8/4 | 17.7 PER | .089 WS/48 | 2.8 BPM
Jimmy Butler (2020-22): 42 G | 24/7/6 | 24.8 PER | .214 WS/48 | 7.5 BPM
Scottie Pippen (1993-95): 39 G | 20/8/5 | 18.8 PER | .116 WS/48 | 3.8 BPM

How is this not clearly Jimmy? Not as available as the others during the regular season but clearly a better playoff performer than both, even including Butler outlier 2021 playoffs when he came off a shortened season w/ injuries.

Butler missed a lot of games during that period, that could be huge in most circumstances. He was lucky that they Heat could still play through that, most teams would struggle a lot with the best player missing 30 games per season.

Butler missed 25, 20 and 15 games [Average of 20 per season].

20 games in 72 games seasons equals to 23 games in 82 games season.
15 games in 73 games seasons equals to 17 games in 82 games season.

You're right that I overstated it, I thought Butler missed around 30 games in 2020. Thanks for the correction. Still, that's either 20 games per season or 23 adjusted games per season - that's a lot of missed games per season.

70sFan wrote:

Colbinii wrote:

70sFan wrote:Butler missed a lot of games during that period, that could be huge in most circumstances. He was lucky that they Heat could still play through that, most teams would struggle a lot with the best player missing 30 games per season.

Butler missed 25, 20 and 15 games [Average of 20 per season].

20 games in 72 games seasons equals to 23 games in 82 games season.
15 games in 73 games seasons equals to 17 games in 82 games season.

You're right that I overstated it, I thought Butler missed around 30 games in 2020. Thanks for the correction. Still, that's either 20 games per season or 23 adjusted games per season - that's a lot of missed games per season.

It is, but his record in the games played was 38-20, 33-19, 38-19. Butler was good enough essentially in all 3 seasons to get his team into the playoffs in each of these 3 scenarios. Unironically, the season where his record was worst was his putrid playoff performance [2021].

Colbinii wrote:

70sFan wrote:

Colbinii wrote:
Butler missed 25, 20 and 15 games [Average of 20 per season].

20 games in 72 games seasons equals to 23 games in 82 games season.
15 games in 73 games seasons equals to 17 games in 82 games season.

You're right that I overstated it, I thought Butler missed around 30 games in 2020. Thanks for the correction. Still, that's either 20 games per season or 23 adjusted games per season - that's a lot of missed games per season.

It is, but his record in the games played was 38-20, 33-19, 38-19. Butler was good enough essentially in all 3 seasons to get his team into the playoffs in each of these 3 scenarios. Unironically, the season where his record was worst was his putrid playoff performance [2021].

Yeah, that's something to consider. I just don't like my best player missing 20+ games three seasons straight. Not all teams could go 15-10 without their best player like Miami did this season.

I think Butler is the best player here, but he's not better enough to overcome such a large durability advantage. You can disagree, I know it's controversial.

Colbinii wrote:

70sFan wrote:

Colbinii wrote:
Butler missed 25, 20 and 15 games [Average of 20 per season].

20 games in 72 games seasons equals to 23 games in 82 games season.
15 games in 73 games seasons equals to 17 games in 82 games season.

You're right that I overstated it, I thought Butler missed around 30 games in 2020. Thanks for the correction. Still, that's either 20 games per season or 23 adjusted games per season - that's a lot of missed games per season.

It is, but his record in the games played was 38-20, 33-19, 38-19. Butler was good enough essentially in all 3 seasons to get his team into the playoffs in each of these 3 scenarios. Unironically, the season where his record was worst was his putrid playoff performance [2021].

Willing to stand corrected with better impact metrics but Butler's on-off for the three seasons (and sometimes across season raw stuff can be kinda janky, but first glance looks okay here) is +6.3. Definitely good but I wouldn't have said super-duper star category. Looking at Miami SRSes IRL as a vague benchmark I could see it being fairly likely that the route to a titles is through three good teams without HCA (and often a fourth solid-to-good team).

I could see a wide range in interpretation depending on interpretations of taking the player versus the season. One bottling playoff availability (and team qualification) and performance could come out very high on Butler. One seeing the injury frequency and seeing possible more inconvenient absences or some possibility of not qualifying and/or not taking playoff performance as a given (and especially if suspicious over consistency/"realness" of playoff elevators, especially if level established in a small sample [versus a career scale]) ... could be a lot lower.

We need to consider rule changes. At least Butler, Tatum and George were sort in the same era.