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It's wishful thinking obviously, but to me it's a big what-if.

2013 was a bounceback year for him offensively, and I think the spacing the Lakers had that year contributed a lot.

In 2011 and 2012 combined, he shot 66% at the rim but only took 14.3% of his attempts there.

In 2013, he shot 69.3% at the rim and took 21.1% of his attempts there.

For reference, at his 2006-09 peak, he shot 62.8% at the rim and took 21.7% of his attempts there. The 2013 accuracy at the rim was the highest of his career once he actually became a superstar.

I personally think that he probably would have had a continued offensive renaissance if he could remain healthy. From 2014 the league was shifting to a pace and space era. LeBron is 37 and almost won the scoring title, meanwhile Curry is 34 and might win Finals MVP. If the Lakers made the right moves, I see no reason Kobe couldn't have continued being an effective player as long as he avoided freak injury, which unfortunately he didn't IRL.

Probably another 2 seasons at all star level before falling off hard.

I imagine a gradual decline afterwards.

2013 was his final swansong on a very bad team bar Kobe.

The Lakers were streaking and got people back for the playoffs, I could a 3-4 year window of contending. Dwight would have likely been sign and traded if possible.

ardee wrote:It's wishful thinking obviously, but to me it's a big what-if.

2013 was a bounceback year for him offensively, and I think the spacing the Lakers had that year contributed a lot.

In 2011 and 2012 combined, he shot 66% at the rim but only took 14.3% of his attempts there.

In 2013, he shot 69.3% at the rim and took 21.1% of his attempts there.

For reference, at his 2006-09 peak, he shot 62.8% at the rim and took 21.7% of his attempts there. The 2013 accuracy at the rim was the highest of his career once he actually became a superstar.

I personally think that he probably would have had a continued offensive renaissance if he could remain healthy. From 2014 the league was shifting to a pace and space era. LeBron is 37 and almost won the scoring title, meanwhile Curry is 34 and might win Finals MVP. If the Lakers made the right moves, I see no reason Kobe couldn't have continued being an effective player as long as he avoided freak injury, which unfortunately he didn't IRL.

I agree that he could have played another 2 seasons at a pretty high level but I don't think it was a freak injury. If you recall he was playing way too many minutes that season especially leading up to the injury on top of being 34 with a **** ton of minutes under his belt and lots of smaller injuries. The Lakers were not managing Kobe's minutes well enough for him to avoid injuries at that point in his career.

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The Lakers were streaking and got people back for the playoffs, I could a 3-4 year window of contending. Dwight would have likely been sign and traded if possible.

short of trading howard for lebron i cannot imagine how

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The Lakers were streaking and got people back for the playoffs, I could a 3-4 year window of contending. Dwight would have likely been sign and traded if possible.

Started that season 17-25, and finished 28-12 (15-6 in the last 21). Avoiding the Spurs in round 1 would have been the big thing, would've just needed to move up round 1 and get the Nuggets instead. That team with Kobe, I think we beat the Nuggets (who lost to GSW anyway), and from there who knows.

I think the Spurs showed how to retool around an aging core, in hindsight. They won the 2007 title when Duncan was 30, and then lost to the Lakers in 2008 in the WCF, falling out of contention after for the next 3 seasons. They didn't panic, kept their Duncan/Parker/Manu core, made smart trades, got useful role players and vets, got lucky with Kawhi, and then basically were a top 3 team in the league from 2012-17, and would be still today if Kawhi never left.

I don't see any reason we couldn't have done that with Kobe/Pau/Odom. The big thing would have been keeping Phil. He says that he left because of his health but really it was because he was being treated poorly by Jerry and Jim Buss. Phil would have managed his big 3 the same way Pop did his. He wouldn't have let Kobe play all those minutes, and there was no reason Pau and Odom could not have been effective into their 30s playing under Phil, especially with the way the style of play in the league was trending... Bigs who could pass and shoot like them were worth their weight in hold.

Maybe we win another title, maybe not, who knows? But we could've still been contending instead of spending a decade in the wasteland until LeBron decided to save us.

falcolombardi wrote:

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The Lakers were streaking and got people back for the playoffs, I could a 3-4 year window of contending. Dwight would have likely been sign and traded if possible.

short of trading howard for lebron i cannot imagine how

See above. After the 2010 season, 3 years removed from their last title, no one expected the Spurs to contend again with the same Duncan/Parker/Manu core, but then they did for 6 more years from 2012-17. If we had kept Phil and Kobe/Pau/Odom, I think the right moves could have been made to shore the team up and keep things going. Not saying we'd have won a title but the team would've been much better off than what happened for the following decade until LeBron got there.

ardee wrote:

falcolombardi wrote:

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The Lakers were streaking and got people back for the playoffs, I could a 3-4 year window of contending. Dwight would have likely been sign and traded if possible.

short of trading howard for lebron i cannot imagine how

See above. After the 2010 season, 3 years removed from their last title, no one expected the Spurs to contend again with the same Duncan/Parker/Manu core, but then they did for 6 more years from 2012-17. If we had kept Phil and Kobe/Pau/Odom, I think the right moves could have been made to shore the team up and keep things going. Not saying we'd have won a title but the team would've been much better off than what happened for the following decade until LeBron got there.

popovich was sort of a pioneer in resting and load management, remember the common fees for resting the big 3 in marquee matchups?

phil doesnt necesarrily do the same thingh popovich did (which was not common until after spurs started the trend)

if anythingh based on his time as knicks GM i dont see him as an "adapt or die" dude, would expect him to play old school basketball as long as possible

falcolombardi wrote:

ardee wrote:

falcolombardi wrote:
short of trading howard for lebron i cannot imagine how

See above. After the 2010 season, 3 years removed from their last title, no one expected the Spurs to contend again with the same Duncan/Parker/Manu core, but then they did for 6 more years from 2012-17. If we had kept Phil and Kobe/Pau/Odom, I think the right moves could have been made to shore the team up and keep things going. Not saying we'd have won a title but the team would've been much better off than what happened for the following decade until LeBron got there.

popovich was sort of a pioneer in resting and load management, remember the common fees for resting the big 3 in marquee matchups?

phil doesnt necesarrily do the same thingh popovich did (which was not common until after spurs started the trend)

if anythingh based on his time as knicks GM i dont see him as an "adapt or die" dude, would expect him to play old school basketball as long as possible

Phil is on record saying he wanted to start limiting Kobe's minutes from 2011 onwards, and he did. He went from 38.8 in 2010 to 33.9 in 2011. If Phil had stayed on I don't doubt he'd have kept that going... Instead we had the big-brained move of hiring Mike Brown instead and he had Kobe back to 38.5 in 2012.

Phil is the only coach who could have gotten Kobe to do that. Letting him go was a disaster for a lot of reasons but amongst them was it shortened Kobe's career.

Ranking player by VORP at the age of 34:

t1. Michael Jordan
t1. Karl Malone
3. John Stockton
t4. Kobe Bryant
t4. David Robinson
6. LeBron James
7. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8. Sam Cassell
9. Garry Payton
10. Hakeem Olajuwon

I imagine he would have been great for several years on a slow decline. He may have upped his 3pt shooting with the emergence of the Warriors.

Kobe's decline was so graceful that hardly anyone knew it had begun until it had been in progress for three years. He would have continued to gracefully decline until he was ready to quit but since basketball meant so much to him I doubt he would have given up before 40 unless subsequent injuries reduced his effectiveness too much. He had a lot to play for too. Besides possibly the 6th ring to tie Jordan, Kobe probably would have retired with the all-time points record if he could have avoided a major injury for the rest of his career. Plus more all-star berths and all-NBA selections.

Whether the Lakers could really have continued to contend if they had kept Pau, Odom and Phil, I'm skeptical. Pau was in decline too and who knows what would have happened with Odom. SA returned to legit contender status because of Kawhi. If LAL didn't pull off a similar coup, I think they would have found it increasingly difficult to get high seeds and get out of the first two rounds. They'd be going up against the Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, CP3's Clippers and Harden's Rockets.

rand wrote:Kobe's decline was so graceful that hardly anyone knew it had begun until it had been in progress for three years. He would have continued to gracefully decline until he was ready to quit but since basketball meant so much to him I doubt he would have given up before 40 unless subsequent injuries reduced his effectiveness too much. He had a lot to play for too. Besides possibly the 6th ring to tie Jordan, Kobe probably would have retired with the all-time points record if he could have avoided a major injury for the rest of his career. Plus more all-star berths and all-NBA selections.

Whether the Lakers could really have continued to contend if they had kept Pau, Odom and Phil, I'm skeptical. Pau was in decline too and who knows what would have happened with Odom. SA returned to legit contender status because of Kawhi. If LAL didn't pull off a similar coup, I think they would have found it increasingly difficult to get high seeds and get out of the first two rounds. They'd be going up against the Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, CP3's Clippers and Harden's Rockets.

They were the 1 seed in the West, 50-16 and won 20 straight games from the end of the RS into the PS, in 2012. That was Kawhi's rookie year. At that point he's basically a role player, nothing more.

He got better into 2013 and 2014, sure, but he wasn't an All-Star caliber player until 2015. He was just a very effective starter, whom I think the Lakers could've found. Mitch was competent enough to put the right pieces around Kobe.

Of course, this is all assuming Basketball Reasons still happens. If the trade went through, a CP3-Kobe duo completely changes the game with or without Phil and the Lakers contend for another 5 years.

ardee wrote:

rand wrote:Kobe's decline was so graceful that hardly anyone knew it had begun until it had been in progress for three years. He would have continued to gracefully decline until he was ready to quit but since basketball meant so much to him I doubt he would have given up before 40 unless subsequent injuries reduced his effectiveness too much. He had a lot to play for too. Besides possibly the 6th ring to tie Jordan, Kobe probably would have retired with the all-time points record if he could have avoided a major injury for the rest of his career. Plus more all-star berths and all-NBA selections.

Whether the Lakers could really have continued to contend if they had kept Pau, Odom and Phil, I'm skeptical. Pau was in decline too and who knows what would have happened with Odom. SA returned to legit contender status because of Kawhi. If LAL didn't pull off a similar coup, I think they would have found it increasingly difficult to get high seeds and get out of the first two rounds. They'd be going up against the Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, CP3's Clippers and Harden's Rockets.

They were the 1 seed in the West, 50-16 and won 20 straight games from the end of the RS into the PS, in 2012. That was Kawhi's rookie year. At that point he's basically a role player, nothing more.

He got better into 2013 and 2014, sure, but he wasn't an All-Star caliber player until 2015. He was just a very effective starter, whom I think the Lakers could've found. Mitch was competent enough to put the right pieces around Kobe.

Of course, this is all assuming Basketball Reasons still happens. If the trade went through, a CP3-Kobe duo completely changes the game with or without Phil and the Lakers contend for another 5 years.

Kawhi was already a huge difference maker in 2013 (#45 RAPM) and even larger in 2014 (#16 RAPM). Thanks in large part to him, SA climbed from #10 in DRtg in 2012 (#11 in 2011) to #3 in 2013 and again in 2014. Those two postseasons Kawhi averaged 13.9 PPG on .608 TS%. His defensive growth between 2012 and 2014 helped cause the dramatically lower effectiveness of KD between the two series. KD averaged 29.5 PPG on .662 TS% and 5.3 APG vs 3.5 TOs in 2012; in 2014 that severely dropped to 25.8 PPG on .560 TS% and 3.2 APG to 3.7 TOs. And KD was a better player in 2014 than 2012 but Kawhi's defense was the key in holding him to one of the worst series of his entire prime.

Without Kawhi the Spurs might well have lost to the Warriors in 2013 (and how that might have changed NBA history) and might have lost to any of the Mavs, Thunder or Heat in 2014. This is the level of impact player the Lakers would have needed to pull out of a hat for a Phil/Kobe/Pau/Odom team to have been a contender from 2013-2017. Just retooling the other roleplayers wouldn't be enough to excel in a West field that would have the KD/Westbrook Thunder, Kawhi Spurs, Kerr/Curry Warriors, Harden Rockets and CP3 Clippers. I think the best a Kobe/Pau/Odom team with Kobe at age 36 in 2015 would rate in this field is 5th and only because KD was hurt that season. The Warriors would sweep that core.

The Lakers title window ended after 2011 because Kobe/Pau/Odom all were in decline at the same moment as huge new powers in the West were forming. They were not going to beat OKC with Odom in 2012 even if we suppose Odom is 90% of the player from 2011. They were -10.8 Rtg in their 5 game loss to OKC in 2012. They had no answer for Durant who crushed them while Kobe, Pau and Bynum were each held to 51% TS (50% for Pau). Having Phil would have made some difference here but not this much.

By that time not much would have changed for him.