how many top 5 in the league seasons: curry vs duncan

[falcolombardi]

this got me interested since it came up in another thread who had more top 5 "player of the year" seasons in their career between both

how many times did curry and duncan have a top 5 season in the league

bonus: how many top 5 seasons have the goat tier players in mba history?

[Blazers-1977]

Duncan:
1998: Not Top 5
1999: 1st
2000: 5th Behind Shaq Malone Mourning Garnett
2001: 2nd behind Shaq
2002: 1st
2003: 1st
2004: 2nd behind Duncan
2005: 2nd behind Shaq
2006: Not Top 5
2007: Tied for 1st with Kobe and Nash
2008 and beyond: Not Top 5(Though he would be ranked 6th in 2008 and 2013 for me)

So Duncan has been top 5 8 times in his career



Curry:
Pre 2015: not top 5
2015: 2nd Behind LeBron
2016: 2nd Behind LeBron
2017: 5th Behind Durant LeBron Kawhi Harden
2018: 5th Behind Harden LeBron Durant Davis
2019-21: Not Top 5:
2022: 3rd Behind Giannis and Luka

So Curry has had 5 seasons where I would say he was top 5

[ceiling raiser]

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

[Doctor MJ]

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

What doesn't "seem right"? If the issue is just that different leagues have different levels of talent, to me that's not something we ignore when looking at a GOAT list, but it's highly debatable what to even do with that information on a year-by-year basis.

ftr, I have Russell, Kareem & LeBron each making my Top 5 13 times, and that's the maximum I have for anyone.

[Narigo]

Curry: 2013-2017, 2019, 2021, 2022
Duncan: 1998-2005, 2007

[ardee]

Let's see.

1998: 5th (behind Jordan, Malone, Shaq, Robinson)
1999: 1st
2000: 6-8th (behind Shaq, Malone, Mourning, Payton, Hill)
2001: 3rd (behind Shaq and Kobe)
2002: 2nd (behind Shaq)
2003: 1st
2004: 2nd (behind KG)
2005: 3rd (behind Nash and Dirk)
2006: 6th (behind Kobe, Wade, Dirk, LeBron, Nash)
2007: 2nd (behind Kobe)
2008: 5th-7th (behind Kobe, CP3, LeBron, KG, debatable with Dirk and Nash)
2009-2012: not top 5
2013: 5th (behind LeBron, Durant, CP3, Curry)
2014 onward: not top 5

So Duncan has 9 or 10 top 5 seasons.

For Curry:

2013: 4th (behind LeBron, Durant, CP3)
2014: 4th or 5th (behind LeBron, Durant, CP3, debatable with Griffin)
2015: 1st or 2nd (debatable with CP3)
2016: 2nd (behind LeBron)
2017: 2nd (behind LeBron)
2018: 6th, possibly lower (behind LeBron, Harden, Davis, Giannis, Durant, debatable with Oladipo)
2019: 2nd-4th (behind Kawhi, debatable with Harden and Giannis)
2020: NA
2021: 3rd (behind Giannis and Jokic)
2022: 2nd or 3rd so far (behind Jokic, debatable with Giannis)

So 8 for Curry.

[ardee]

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

LeBron I presume we're talking every year except rookie, 2019 and 2021? And for Kareem it's 1970-1986?

[Dutchball97]

Looking at POY rankings for reference Duncan has 9 seasons in the top 5, while Curry is currently sitting at 7 (but will almost certainly get to 8 this season). There are a couple seasons where they barely make it in as 5th or just miss out as 6th so there is room for some variance but it seems like a realistic ballpark at least.

LeBron and Kareem are at 14 seasons each with Russell right behind them making the top 5 every year in his 13 year career. Kobe should've made the top 5 all of his 20 seasons but the highly organized international anti-Kobe cartel made sure our GOAT and savior only got credit for 9 seasons to make it look like Tim Duncan (boo, very boring and unskilled) was on the same level.

[70sFan]

Duncan: 1999-08, 2013 (11 seasons)
Curry: 2013-19, 2021-22 (9 seasons)

[TheGOATRises007]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

[ceiling raiser]

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

What doesn't "seem right"? If the issue is just that different leagues have different levels of talent, to me that's not something we ignore when looking at a GOAT list, but it's highly debatable what to even do with that information on a year-by-year basis.

ftr, I have Russell, Kareem & LeBron each making my Top 5 13 times, and that's the maximum I have for anyone.

It doesn’t seem right in that it isn’t really directly actionable. In terms of level of talent that’s part of why this won’t be a 1:1 mapping, I suppose.

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

LeBron I presume we're talking every year except rookie, 2019 and 2021? And for Kareem it's 1970-1986?

Looking again, probably should be 15 for LeBron. Every year except rookie, 2019, 2021, 2022.

[Doctor MJ]

Part of the issue with this exercise (insofar as it concerns top 5 as a criterion for player evaluation) is I would likely have Russell, Wilt, Oscar, and West top 5 nearly every single year of their careers. All legendary players but that doesn’t seem right to me.

I believe I have 9 years for Curry and 10 years for Duncan, however I am somebody who is higher on all-time greats in player evaluation, and am less likely to place guys with an outlier season (unless it’s something like Walton) in my top 5 in a given year.

From a cursory glance I have 11 years for Jordan, 16 (!) years from LeBron, 17 (!!) from Kareem. That’s pretty insane to think about.

What doesn't "seem right"? If the issue is just that different leagues have different levels of talent, to me that's not something we ignore when looking at a GOAT list, but it's highly debatable what to even do with that information on a year-by-year basis.

ftr, I have Russell, Kareem & LeBron each making my Top 5 13 times, and that's the maximum I have for anyone.

It doesn’t seem right in that it isn’t really directly actionable. In terms of level of talent that’s part of why this won’t be a 1:1 mapping, I suppose.

Well it definitely doesn't factor everything in that needs to be factored in in a cross era player comparison. I find the process to be very valuable as a step along the way in my analysis, and as something that allows us to have more granular debates which I think is important, but it ain't the whole shebang.

[Doctor MJ]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

Ah, in some prior-informed RAPMs he's #1 in RAPM, but he's considerably lower in non-prior-informed:

2006 NPI RAPM

If you look at his raw (regular season) on/off in '05-06 compared to the year before, you see it's a lot weaker, and this goes along with a general sense that he was weaker at that time compared to the preceding and following regular seasons.

As you say though, he was better in the playoffs - and considerably better specifically compared to what he was in the '04-05 playoffs - and in the end, he makes my Top 5 list for that year.

[70sFan]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

Low scoring numbers, nothing else.

Seriously, Duncan wasn't at his peak (he struggled with injuries in the RS), but he was still massively impactful player anchoring elite defense and leading Spurs to another great season. On top of that, he finished the season with ATG performance against Dallas.

Duncan is a lock top 5 player in 2006 for me. Another thing is that he's underrated in 2008 as well.

[70sFan]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

Ah, in some prior-informed RAPMs he's #1 in RAPM, but he's considerably lower in non-prior-informed:

2006 NPI RAPM

If you look at his raw (regular season) on/off in '05-06 compared to the year before, you see it's a lot weaker, and this goes along with a general sense that he was weaker at that time compared to the preceding and following regular seasons.

As you say though, he was better in the playoffs - and considerably better specifically compared to what he was in the '04-05 playoffs - and in the end, he makes my Top 5 list for that year.

He's ranked at 12 in NPI RAPM and the only other POY candidate ahead of him is Wade. I don't think it makes his case weaker at all.

[sp6r=underrated]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

RAPM uses prior seasons. There is a version of RAPM that does not utilize prior seasons. Normally using prior seasons isn't problamatic but when a player is playing through an injury the prior seasons can inflate their value.


NPI has Duncan outside the top 10. The raw on/off tells a similar story. The box score stats totally capture the drop off This was an injury problem. Duncan had a major problem that year with planter fasicitis, which limited his quality of play.

He did have a good post-season against Dallas. But a player's season shouldn't be decided by one series.

[70sFan]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

RAPM uses prior seasons. There is a version of RAPM that does not utilize prior seasons. Normally using prior seasons isn't problamatic but when a player is playing through an injury the prior seasons can inflate their value.


NPI has Duncan outside the top 10. The raw on/off tells a similar story. The box score stats totally capture the drop off This was an injury problem. Duncan had a major problem that year with planter fasicitis, which limited his quality of play.

He did have a good post-season against Dallas. But a player's season shouldn't be decided by one series.

Ranking outside top 10 literallt means at #12 here...

[sp6r=underrated]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

RAPM uses prior seasons. There is a version of RAPM that does not utilize prior seasons. Normally using prior seasons isn't problamatic but when a player is playing through an injury the prior seasons can inflate their value.


NPI has Duncan outside the top 10. The raw on/off tells a similar story. The box score stats totally capture the drop off This was an injury problem. Duncan had a major problem that year with planter fasicitis, which limited his quality of play.

He did have a good post-season against Dallas. But a player's season shouldn't be decided by one series.

Ranking outside top 10 literallt means at #12 here...

The difference between a top 5 player and a player in the low teens is larger than the difference between a player in the 30s vs the 50s.

[falcolombardi]

What's the argument for Duncan not being top 5 in 2006?

He was first in RAPM. Pretty sure he's top 5 in every impact metric.

He was a monster in the playoffs too.

RAPM uses prior seasons. There is a version of RAPM that does not utilize prior seasons. Normally using prior seasons isn't problamatic but when a player is playing through an injury the prior seasons can inflate their value.


NPI has Duncan outside the top 10. The raw on/off tells a similar story. The box score stats totally capture the drop off This was an injury problem. Duncan had a major problem that year with planter fasicitis, which limited his quality of play.

He did have a good post-season against Dallas. But a player's season shouldn't be decided by one series.

that may be the case but i think it applies to all players including curry, we all are a little "guilty" of overly focusing in playoffs

2018 curry for exampme missed a ton of games but still may make most top 5's based in playoffs

[falcolombardi]

RAPM uses prior seasons. There is a version of RAPM that does not utilize prior seasons. Normally using prior seasons isn't problamatic but when a player is playing through an injury the prior seasons can inflate their value.


NPI has Duncan outside the top 10. The raw on/off tells a similar story. The box score stats totally capture the drop off This was an injury problem. Duncan had a major problem that year with planter fasicitis, which limited his quality of play.

He did have a good post-season against Dallas. But a player's season shouldn't be decided by one series.

Ranking outside top 10 literallt means at #12 here...

The difference between a top 5 player and a player in the low teens is larger than the difference between a player in the 30s vs the 50s.

sure but he is ahead of kobe, garnett, lebron and dirk

which are mostly his competition to make top 5