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Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9 (Michigan State)

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:41 pm
by trex_8063
How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #9 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. East-Central Zone (highschool)

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

jalengreen wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:.

Colbini wrote:.

giordunk wrote:.

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:49 pm
by trex_8063
Total WS
Arizona - 974.3
Ohio State - 965.4
Indiana - 949.7
Michigan State - 899.5
Michigan - 897.7
Wake Forest - 788
Houston - 708.5
LSU - 670.1

Total Players (Mean WS)
Indiana - 68 (14.0)
Arizona - 62 (15.7)
Michigan - 62 (14.5)
Michigan State - 52 (17.3)
Ohio State - 50 (19.3)
LSU - 50 (13.4)
Houston - 38 (18.6)
Wake Forest - 33 (23.9)

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Arizona - 414.89
Michigan State - 403.59
Wake Forest - 393.43
Ohio State - 391.34
Indiana - 372.88
Houston - 367.66
Michigan - 360.12
LSU - 336.28

All-Star Selections
Houston - 38
LSU - 36
Ohio State - 33
Indiana - 31
Michigan State - 29
Wake Forest - 28
Michigan - 18
Arizona - 6 (although note they have Mike Bibby, Richard Jefferson, Jason Terry, and DeAndre Ayton......all of whom have had at least 1 or 2 All-Star level seasons, even if they weren't recognized; Iggy only got one, too)

MVP's
LSU - 3
Michigan State - 3
Wake Forest - 2
Houston - 1
Indiana - 1 (or 0.5?--->George McGinnis shared a co-MVP with Dr. J [in the ABA])

Ohio State/Michigan/Arizona - 0 each

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:08 pm
by falcolombardi
ufff missed the vote :(, have been a bit busy, sorry for not contributing much in the latest threads

fwiw i was gonna vote centtal high school first although u was undecided in spots 2 and 3

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:34 am
by jalengreen
hoping to add more later today when i have time but tentative ranking for now: 1. michigan state 2. houston 3. ohio st, hm: wake, lsu

trex’s post has made me reconsider and i think i should have Msu over houston. still have houston over wake/lsu. main thing i need to consider is where to put ohio state, tentatively putting them at 3 as i felt they were very impressive

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:05 pm
by falcolombardi
i have commented before that i have doubts on maravich as a true star impact player based on very underwhelming results and talk of more knowledgeable posters and i think simmons career so far is very short so far to compare him with players who had full careers as all star talent

but even with that i am increibly surprised wske forest actually beats LSU in thinghs like win shares, as good as shaq/petit duo is, duncan/paul matches it and i am lpwer thsn most on lsu players after their top 2

houston big 3 is fascinating here although they lack depth

the -other- michigan is a dark horse pick imo but probably not as good as the trojans

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:25 pm
by falcolombardi
michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

vs

michigan

total of nba players: 59 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) (glen rice, webber, tomjamovich)

notable: jalen rose, juwan howard, jamal crawford


honestly closer than i expected, magic is the best player by far and green may be a distant second, but i actually like michigan more than i expected

still pick the trojans here

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:30 pm
by falcolombardi
arizona

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( low) (Iguodala, arenas)

notable: kerr (coaching bonus?) budinger, ayton (still not quite an star career yet) richard jefferson, sean elliot, bibby

vs

michigan

total of nba players: 59 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) (glen rice, webber, tomjamovich)

notable: jalen rose, juwan howard, jamal crawford

i think this is fairly close

webber, tomjanovich, juwan howard, rose and rice are roughly comparable with iguodala, arenas, jefferson, terry and bibby

desrved or not, michigan sweeps arizona in all star selections while arizona has a healthy edge in thinghs like win share fwiw

i am gonna use ayton and his potential as tiebreaker here i think and go with arizona (i dont like using future expected success as a metric so i use it only as a last tiebreaker)

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:09 am
by falcolombardi
i was curious about arizona state

total nba players (38) (mid)

mvp level players (1) (mid)

all star level players (3?) (mid) (harden, byron scott?, fat lever)

notable: lionel hollins, luguentz dort, eddie house, fat lever

not too shabby, wpuld be interesting to see then against like serbia, lousiana state, michigan (the fab five michigan) or arizona university

not a contender at this point yet

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:32 am
by falcolombardi
michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

vs the also fairly top heavy LSU

lousiana

total of nba players: 47 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (shaq, petit)

notable all star level players: 4 ( high) (shaq, petit, ben simmons*, maravich) *short career

notable: glen davis, abdul-rauf

i am sligtly higher on michigan after top 2 but also have petit a bit over draymond, see shaq vs magic as mostly a watch

i already compares them and went with lousiana but revisiting this to add more tiebreakers

all stars selections goes 37-29 to lousiana (again i have my doubts over maravich impact being all star level)

total -and- median win shares however go to michigan state suggesting more productive depth

i will move my pick towards michigan since i feel the differemce at the top between draymond and petit significant, but michigan looks better to me after that (i am unsure of maravich impact and prefer zack randolph over simmons) and the depth seems to go michigan

i am being somewhat inconsistent by not prioritizing lousiana edge at the top 2 but i find michigan a bit better overall after top 2 and bigger than the gap between petit and draymond (i think from what i have read and seen petit may have been closer to #1 player than green with green closing the gap with a slight boost for playing in a stronger/bigger league)

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:42 am
by falcolombardi
michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic, long shot for peak draymond)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

vs

wake forest

total of nba players: 33 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (chris paul, duncan)

notable all star level players: 2 (mid) (duncan, paul)

notable: rodney rogers, ish smith, muggsy bogues, john collins)

i think the top is slight favor for wake forest as i have duncan a tad over magic and paul as better than draymond similar to michigan vs lousiana i think the trojans lose marginally the top 2

they however have significatively more players

the longevity of paul and duncan and their high level of play (and having less total players to drag the average down) means wake forest actually matches total win shares and wins median ones

this is similar actually to the lousiana vs michigan one so to be consistent i will go with....wake forest

total win shares favors them despite less players (dont use mean when a school has significatively less talent) thanks to paul and duncan longevity

i am not that impressed by michigan depth or wake forest depth so i will go wake forest here

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:51 am
by falcolombardi
michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic, long shot for peak draymond)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

vs

Houston

total of nba players: 34 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1-2 (mid) (hakeem, maybe drexler)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (hakeem, drexler, hayes)

notable: birdsong, bo outlaw

houston wins at the top 3, loses in total players comparable in notable talent

using other tiebreakers

all stars : houston

win shares total: michigan

i dont care much about mean win shares if a school has less players since the mean is more skewed by the stars

since i try to use top talent as a tiebreaker i will go houston here

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:57 am
by falcolombardi
Houston

total of nba players: 34 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (mid) (hakeem, maybe drexler)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (hakeem, drexler, hayes)

notable: birdsong, bo outlaw

houston wins at the top 3, loses in total players comparable in notable talent

vs

wake forest

total of nba players: 33 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (chris paul, duncan)

notable all star level players: 2 (mid) (duncan, paul)

notable: rodney rogers, ish smith, muggsy bogues, john collins)

houston wins at top 3 level

depth of talent and total players is similar

houston wins all star selections while wake forest wins win shares

duncan=> hakeem career in my mind, but hayes + drexler >> chris paul

neither one has the most impressive talent after that so i go houston here since i think they win the most tiebreakers

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:58 am
by falcolombardi
1-houston
2-wake forest
3-michigan state

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:40 pm
by trex_8063
Again, apologies for not participating more in the project of my own devising. I'm hoping things will calm down a bit sometime, but you know what they say: wish in one hand and s*** in the other.....

Anyway, based on a rough estimate from all info provided, bit of gut feeling, and I'm going with.....

1. Michigan State
2. Wake Forest
3. Ohio State

OSU provides a nice balance of star-power [if not ever MVP level talent] and meaningful depth, so they rate fair-to-good in all comparisons [again: except if comparing MVP-level talents against sources like Houston or LSU]. So I'm gonna give them some love here (reserving right to have a change of heart later).

Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #9

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:43 pm
by trex_8063
Scores thru post #14:

Michigan State - 7 pts
Houston - 5 pts
Wake Forest - 4 pts
Ohio State - 2 pts

So MSU takes this spot. Nice battle between Houston and WF set up for next round. I'm gonna take another look at non-USA sources soon, add them into some of the measures we've looked at.