Finals Only: 2022 Curry vs 2021 Giannis
Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:16 am
Both were awesome but who had the better Finals, Giannis last season or Curry just now?
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Outside wrote:I love Curry but Giannis in the 2021 finals was a level higher. He physically dominated on both ends. Curry dominated offensively in a different way, but he was merely good defensively, a part of an overall great defense, while Giannis was defensively dominant.
DraymondGold wrote:Outside wrote:I love Curry but Giannis in the 2021 finals was a level higher. He physically dominated on both ends. Curry dominated offensively in a different way, but he was merely good defensively, a part of an overall great defense, while Giannis was defensively dominant.
Are we sure Giannis was actually a level higher?
Overall Impact stats are close, with some favoring curry.
2022 Curry is tied with 2021 Giannis in playoff Backpacks BoxPlusMinus, and he has a higher playoff Raptor rating by a fair margin (+8.9 vs +6.6). And although the Raptor plus minus is for the entire playoffs, not just the finals, Curry likely had his best series in the finals so it's not like his finals-specific Raptor rating would be worse just in the finals.
Scoring: Giannis has small volume advantage, but Curry has the larger efficiency advantage.
Curry: 30 points per 36 at +7.0% relative true shooting percentage
Giannis: 32 points per 36 at 65.8 TS% at +3.1% relative true shooting percentage
Since the 22 Celtics are such a better defense than the 21 Suns, Curry's efficient scoring jumps out. A +4% relative True Shooting advantage is huge.
For comparison, 2022 Giannis against the same Celtics team scored +0.5 more points per 36 at 11% worse true shooting percentage.
For me, Curry's clearly the better scorer.
Creation: Advantage Curry.
Credit to Giannis for improving his playmaking in 2021. But while both posted a similar number of pure assists, Curry's advantage in hockey assists, offball playmaking, and perimeter gravity gives him the creation advantage.
Defense: Advantage Giannis.
Like creation, both players performed well, but one player was clearly better. Credit to Curry for having his best defensive year in 2022, but Giannis was the more impactful defender.
Intangibles / Leadership / Decision making: Possible advantage Curry?
I've always found this sort of stuff hard to measure and often overrated, but for what it's worth -- the 2021 Bucks had a bigger advantage over the suns Suns than the 2022 Warriors had over the Celtics. Both the Bucks and Warriors fell behind at first, but to my eye Curry showed greater composure in the most critical game (game 4) and made fewer decision making mistakes overcoming a more difficult challenge while trying to come back from behind (I still find those Giannis early-shotclock 3 point attempts head scratching to this day).
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To be clear, I would certainly accept people saying that Giannis' large defensive advantage overcomes Curry's large creation advantage, smaller scoring advantage, and possible leadership/decision-making advantage. But Giannis better by that much? Is he really a level higher?
I'm not so sure.... Giannis is the better defender and the more athletic player, but I wonder whether people are underrating Curry's offensive advantage and skill/decision-making advantage.
DraymondGold wrote:Outside wrote:I love Curry but Giannis in the 2021 finals was a level higher. He physically dominated on both ends. Curry dominated offensively in a different way, but he was merely good defensively, a part of an overall great defense, while Giannis was defensively dominant.
Are we sure Giannis was actually a level higher?
Overall Impact stats are close, with some favoring curry.
2022 Curry is tied with 2021 Giannis in playoff Backpacks BoxPlusMinus, and he has a higher playoff Raptor rating by a fair margin (+8.9 vs +6.6). And although the Raptor plus minus is for the entire playoffs, not just the finals, Curry likely had his best series in the finals so it's not like his finals-specific Raptor rating would be worse just in the finals.
Scoring: Giannis has small volume advantage, but Curry has the larger efficiency advantage.
Curry: 30 points per 36 at +7.0% relative true shooting percentage
Giannis: 32 points per 36 at 65.8 TS% at +3.1% relative true shooting percentage
Since the 22 Celtics are such a better defense than the 21 Suns, Curry's efficient scoring jumps out. A +4% relative True Shooting advantage is huge.
For comparison, 2022 Giannis against the same Celtics team scored +0.5 more points per 36 at 11% worse true shooting percentage.
For me, Curry's clearly the better scorer.
Creation: Advantage Curry.
Credit to Giannis for improving his playmaking in 2021. But while both posted a similar number of pure assists, Curry's advantage in hockey assists, offball playmaking, and perimeter gravity gives him the creation advantage.
Defense: Advantage Giannis.
Like creation, both players performed well, but one player was clearly better. Credit to Curry for having his best defensive year in 2022, but Giannis was the more impactful defender.
Intangibles / Leadership / Decision making: Possible advantage Curry?
I've always found this sort of stuff hard to measure and often overrated, but for what it's worth -- the 2021 Bucks had a bigger advantage over the suns Suns than the 2022 Warriors had over the Celtics. Both the Bucks and Warriors fell behind at first, but to my eye Curry showed greater composure in the most critical game (game 4) and made fewer decision making mistakes overcoming a more difficult challenge while trying to come back from behind (I still find those Giannis early-shotclock 3 point attempts head scratching to this day).
-----
To be clear, I would certainly accept people saying that Giannis' large defensive advantage overcomes Curry's large creation advantage, smaller scoring advantage, and possible leadership/decision-making advantage. But Giannis better by that much? Is he really a level higher?
I'm not so sure.... Giannis is the better defender and the more athletic player, but I wonder whether people are underrating Curry's offensive advantage and skill/decision-making advantage.
Eddy_JukeZ wrote:I think Giannis was a bit better.
It's probably a top 5 finals performance. I'd have Curry's as top 10.
LukaTheGOAT wrote:DraymondGold wrote:Outside wrote:
2021 Giannis had a 9.0 Backpicks BPM in the Finals, while Curry was at 7.3.
DraymondGold wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:DraymondGold wrote:
2021 Giannis had a 9.0 Backpicks BPM in the Finals, while Curry was at 7.3.
Ah Thanks!I put full playoff numbers because I couldn't find Giannis' Backpicks BPM score for just the finals. Where did you find it by the way?
Sounds like Giannis' finals-specific BPM would suggest Giannis is slightly ahead in the finals. (unless Giannis' worse decision making or Curry's offball creation is enough to overcome Giannis' defense and the signals that show up in the box score, which is possible but not likely... perhaps if his Finals-specific Raptor or other plus minus data is higher for Curry, but like I said I've only playoff stuff, not finals stuff :/).
That raises two questions: 1. why was Giannis better in the finals than the rest of the playoffs? (higher BPM in finals than average means lower BPM than average in previous rounds). Were there any adjustments that improved his performance that much?
2. Why did Giannis perform so much worse against the Celtics defense than Curry did in 2022, if his 2021 performance was better? Did the lack of Jrue holiday affect him that much, or was he just better in 2021 than in 2022?
ardee wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:I think Giannis was a bit better.
It's probably a top 5 finals performance. I'd have Curry's as top 10.
Top 5? You'd have to put it over 2016 LeBron, and a few out of first threepeat MJ and threepeat Shaq. Which three of those seven is Giannis better than?
DraymondGold wrote:Outside wrote:I love Curry but Giannis in the 2021 finals was a level higher. He physically dominated on both ends. Curry dominated offensively in a different way, but he was merely good defensively, a part of an overall great defense, while Giannis was defensively dominant.
Are we sure Giannis was actually a level higher?
Overall Impact stats are close, with some favoring curry.
2022 Curry is tied with 2021 Giannis in playoff Backpacks BoxPlusMinus, and he has a higher playoff Raptor rating by a fair margin (+8.9 vs +6.6). And although the Raptor plus minus is for the entire playoffs, not just the finals, Curry likely had his best series in the finals so it's not like his finals-specific Raptor rating would be worse just in the finals.
Scoring: Giannis has small volume advantage, but Curry has the larger efficiency advantage.
Curry: 30 points per 36 at +7.0% relative true shooting percentage
Giannis: 32 points per 36 at 65.8 TS% at +3.1% relative true shooting percentage
Since the 22 Celtics are such a better defense than the 21 Suns, Curry's efficient scoring jumps out. A +4% relative True Shooting advantage is huge.
For comparison, 2022 Giannis against the same Celtics team scored +0.5 more points per 36 at 11% worse true shooting percentage.
For me, Curry's clearly the better scorer.
Creation: Advantage Curry.
Credit to Giannis for improving his playmaking in 2021. But while both posted a similar number of pure assists, Curry's advantage in hockey assists, offball playmaking, and perimeter gravity gives him the creation advantage.
Defense: Advantage Giannis.
Like creation, both players performed well, but one player was clearly better. Credit to Curry for having his best defensive year in 2022, but Giannis was the more impactful defender.
Intangibles / Leadership / Decision making: Possible advantage Curry?
I've always found this sort of stuff hard to measure and often overrated, but for what it's worth -- the 2021 Bucks had a bigger advantage over the suns Suns than the 2022 Warriors had over the Celtics. Both the Bucks and Warriors fell behind at first, but to my eye Curry showed greater composure in the most critical game (game 4) and made fewer decision making mistakes overcoming a more difficult challenge while trying to come back from behind (I still find those Giannis early-shotclock 3 point attempts head scratching to this day).
-----
To be clear, I would certainly accept people saying that Giannis' large defensive advantage overcomes Curry's large creation advantage, smaller scoring advantage, and possible leadership/decision-making advantage. But Giannis better by that much? Is he really a level higher?
I'm not so sure.... Giannis is the better defender and the more athletic player, but I wonder whether people are underrating Curry's offensive advantage and skill/decision-making advantage.
Eddy_JukeZ wrote:ardee wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:I think Giannis was a bit better.
It's probably a top 5 finals performance. I'd have Curry's as top 10.
Top 5? You'd have to put it over 2016 LeBron, and a few out of first threepeat MJ and threepeat Shaq. Which three of those seven is Giannis better than?
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
euroleague wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:ardee wrote:
Top 5? You'd have to put it over 2016 LeBron, and a few out of first threepeat MJ and threepeat Shaq. Which three of those seven is Giannis better than?
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
How do you put 16 LBJ over 00 or 01 Shaq? Or 92/93 MJ?
29-11-9 on 56% TS
Vs
38-17-2 on 61% eFG
vs
33-16-5 on 58% TA
Shaq was getting those stats through double teams, while lbj was playing against Warriors with injured Iggy/Bogut...
euroleague wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:ardee wrote:
Top 5? You'd have to put it over 2016 LeBron, and a few out of first threepeat MJ and threepeat Shaq. Which three of those seven is Giannis better than?
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
How do you put 16 LBJ over 00 or 01 Shaq? Or 92/93 MJ?
29-11-9 on 56% TS
Vs
38-17-2 on 61% eFG
vs
33-16-5 on 58% TA
Shaq was getting those stats through double teams, while lbj was playing against Warriors with injured Iggy/Bogut...
LukaTheGOAT wrote:DraymondGold wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:
2021 Giannis had a 9.0 Backpicks BPM in the Finals, while Curry was at 7.3.
Ah Thanks!I put full playoff numbers because I couldn't find Giannis' Backpicks BPM score for just the finals. Where did you find it by the way?
Sounds like Giannis' finals-specific BPM would suggest Giannis is slightly ahead in the finals. (unless Giannis' worse decision making or Curry's offball creation is enough to overcome Giannis' defense and the signals that show up in the box score, which is possible but not likely... perhaps if his Finals-specific Raptor or other plus minus data is higher for Curry, but like I said I've only playoff stuff, not finals stuff :/).
That raises two questions: 1. why was Giannis better in the finals than the rest of the playoffs? (higher BPM in finals than average means lower BPM than average in previous rounds). Were there any adjustments that improved his performance that much?
2. Why did Giannis perform so much worse against the Celtics defense than Curry did in 2022, if his 2021 performance was better? Did the lack of Jrue holiday affect him that much, or was he just better in 2021 than in 2022?
Sure thing. Here is the article https://backpicks.com/2021/07/22/backpicks-box-score-for-the-2021-nba-finals/
Giannis was better in the Finals because of just how special his scoring was and he created more for teammates than other parts of the PS.
I think him committing to off-ball play helped him be better but he also just had an overall great series. I think that the Celtics have a good argument for being a better defense than the Suns defense.
euroleague wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:ardee wrote:
Top 5? You'd have to put it over 2016 LeBron, and a few out of first threepeat MJ and threepeat Shaq. Which three of those seven is Giannis better than?
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
How do you put 16 LBJ over 00 or 01 Shaq? Or 92/93 MJ?
29-11-9 on 56% TS
Vs
38-17-2 on 61% eFG
vs
33-16-5 on 58% TA
Shaq was getting those stats through double teams, while lbj was playing against Warriors with injured Iggy/Bogut...
ardee wrote:euroleague wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
How do you put 16 LBJ over 00 or 01 Shaq? Or 92/93 MJ?
29-11-9 on 56% TS
Vs
38-17-2 on 61% eFG
vs
33-16-5 on 58% TA
Shaq was getting those stats through double teams, while lbj was playing against Warriors with injured Iggy/Bogut...
That wasn't just "29/11/9 on 56% TS".... it was 29.8/11.3/8.9 with 2.6 spg and 2.3 bpg on 56% TS against a SEVENTY THREE WIN TEAM.
My God this is an all-time post on RealGM. You're trying to frame their respective oppositions as Shaq facing the stronger ones... When in truth Shaq faced below average Finals teams in Indy and Philly if we're being real, compared to the single greatest regular season team of all time for LeBron.
LeBron in 2016 had the greatest Finals performance of all time, it's not even a debate.
Eddy_JukeZ wrote:euroleague wrote:Eddy_JukeZ wrote:
I wouldn't put it over 2016 LeBron.
My top 5 finals are: 91 Jordan, 2016 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 21 Giannis, and then so many arguments for the 5th slot(2017 LeBron, 92/93 Jordan, 2003 Duncan, 87 Magic, etc).
How do you put 16 LBJ over 00 or 01 Shaq? Or 92/93 MJ?
29-11-9 on 56% TS
Vs
38-17-2 on 61% eFG
vs
33-16-5 on 58% TA
Shaq was getting those stats through double teams, while lbj was playing against Warriors with injured Iggy/Bogut...
His games to close the series were incredible. First ever 3-1 comeback for the finals and 2 of his best ever games b2b to force the game 7.
I actually think he was more consistent in the 2017 finals overall.
Either way, it's all nitpicking. All of the finals are on a similar level.